Texas Fall 2017

[Yukon Cornelius]

While in la-la land, both the 0z and 6z GFS show a stout cold front around mid October. Keep hope alive!

Porta..I agree....I heard October 10th....and it is looking more and more like your Indians might get the number one seed....

If the Tribe is fortunate enough to make it to the ALCS, the latest GFS shows high temps in the low-mid 50s during that time frame. Might be a bit chilly for those Astros if they make it that far as well and have to come to Cleveland!

I'm still hoping for a sleet storm in Austin on November 24th for the Texas-Texas Tech football game. Wouldn't that be cool?!

Wreck em!

[dhweather]

Pouring in Rockwall.

In your part of the county.

[dhweather]

300+ hour gfs has a tropical cyclone from the gulf hitting Texas

12Z and 18Z today have it taking a very Imra-esque path. Fortunately, that's more than 96 hours out, so its probably wrong.

[Brent]

300+ hour gfs has a tropical cyclone from the gulf hitting Texas

12Z and 18Z today have it taking a very Imra-esque path. Fortunately, that's more than 96 hours out, so its probably wrong.

Florida is a lot more likely in October tbh but yeah

GFS continues to show consistently a strong cold front around Day 11, it has been consistent with this, we'll see if the Euro shows it soon. FWD also hinted at a possible pattern change in the LR

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Heat wave next week looks exciting......

At least were not getting this kind of high in the summer.

[weatherdude1108]

I've gotten 2.8 inches of rain this week as of today.

[Brent]

GFS has the strong front again right at 240 hours passing DFW, CMC does too

and big time fall arrives in the GFS fantasy land

Anything tropical in the Atlantic would go to Florida with that front

The 0z Euro has cooler air moving in even faster than the GFS/CMC with a huge front in just a week(next Friday), temperatures drop 15-20 degrees. Also plenty of rain chances.

[Yukon Cornelius]

The rain is definitely beneficial, especially for those of us up in the northern part of the state that have been lacking lately. However, when you work outside, 3 days of solid rain and drizzle gets really old. I'm ready for it to stop now.

[srainhoutx]

It's Good News Friday! I am finally seeing signs via the reliable ECMWF EPS and GEFS Ensemble guidance in the longer range that a deep Central North American trough develops across Canada and the Great Plains. Fingers crossed that just before mid October we may see our first legitimate Fall Cold Front.

[Ntxw]

Week 2 pattern does look conducive for mid continental fall air after we pass the warmer week 1. ~Oct 10th would be the date to watch for.

[CaptinCrunch]

@NTXW

I hope so brother, I do not want to see another warm Fall after last years record warmth. On the bright side the rain has been super welcomed, my lawn is was dying of thirst.

[Ntxw]

A wild card to watch for is Mt Agung in Indonesia. Last erupted in 1963 violently with VEI 5. Anything over 5 usually has global implications in the years after eruption. Its been shaking and over 100,000+ people evacuated. There has not been a VEI 6 or greater eruption since Pinatubo.

[Portastorm]

A wild card to watch for is Mt Agung in Indonesia. Last erupted in 1963 violently with VEI 5. Anything over 5 usually has global implications in the years after eruption. Its been shaking and over 100,000+ people evacuated. There has not been a VEI 6 or greater eruption since Pinatubo.

Glad you brought this up. I read some interesting interaction on Twitter between some pro mets who talked about how this potential eruption could overwhelm any ENSO signal. Will be very interested to see what happens and the downstream weather impacts on Texas.

[gboudx]

A wild card to watch for is Mt Agung in Indonesia. Last erupted in 1963 violently with VEI 5. Anything over 5 usually has global implications in the years after eruption. Its been shaking and over 100,000+ people evacuated. There has not been a VEI 6 or greater eruption since Pinatubo.

Add that on top of a solar eclipse, major, devastating hurricanes and devastating earthquakes. Where’s my “the end is near” sign?

[CaptinCrunch]

A wild card to watch for is Mt Agung in Indonesia. Last erupted in 1963 violently with VEI 6. Anything over 5 usually has global implications in the years after eruption. Its been shaking and over 100,000+ people evacuated. There has not been a VEI 6 or greater eruption since Pinatubo.

LOL, I just read the same thing.

A week after authorities put Bali's volcano on high alert, tremors that indicate an eruption is coming show no sign of abating, swelling the exodus from the region to at least 140,000 people.
http://abcnews.go.com/Lifestyle/wireStory/bali-volcano-danger-signs-unabated-week-high-alert-50173894

I major volcanic eruption especially from a large volcano such as Bali's can change global weather patterns and their effects.

[TheProfessor]

The past couple of day have felt great here. Finally doesn't feel like I'm going through a sauna to get to class. I've always been interested about how Volcanoes affected weather. The Indonesia area has had some very powerful volcanic eruptions in the past. It would be very interesting to see a volcanic winter, at least scientifically, but if you look at the economical side of it it's quite scary.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Its last eruption was 1963. What was our winter like following that event?

[Brent]

Its last eruption was 1963. What was our winter like following that event?

63-64 is one of the snowiest winters in DFW history. Only a couple inches behind the infamous 09-10

[Ntxw]

Its last eruption was 1963. What was our winter like following that event?

The early to mid 60s had many freezes. 1963-1964, 1964-1965 had 61 and 58 freezes back to back the greatest couplet I believe in DFW's history. They were very cold winters. Winters following major VEI 5/6+ has some correlation. 1993-1996 after Pinatubo had some unusual chills (such has near freezing Halloweens) and we all know about the early 80s after St Helens and El Chichon volcanoes 1980/1983

63-64 was DFW's first "footer" snow event

[JDawg512]

Doesn't look as hot for this area of the state next week as what is forecast up north. After a short break tomorrow and Sunday, rain chances return Monday.

It's been cloudy for 6 days straight. Pretty impressive streak for this time of year.