Texas Summer 2018

[Haris]

NWS seems aggressive IMHO. If I dont get more than 2" from this, I call this is fail ! Hate the euro

[jaguars_22]

What did the Euro show for rainfall for victoria?

[Brent]

that hole over N TX on the 12z GFS is ugly... (actually zero rain through Wednesday to the west of DFW)

this reminds me of the snowstorms being taken away in the winter

[Yukon Cornelius]

that hole over N TX on the 12z GFS is ugly... (actually zero rain through Wednesday to the west of DFW)

this reminds me of the snowstorms being taken away in the winter

The NWS has been lowering our chances each day as the event gets closer.

[starsfan65]

that hole over N TX on the 12z GFS is ugly... (actually zero rain through Wednesday to the west of DFW)

this reminds me of the snowstorms being taken away in the winter

It can't be true!!

[Haris]

Gfs has less than ONE INCH IN AUSTIN!!!!!!

I KNEW this was toooo good to be true !!!

I quit and hate my emotional attachment to weather . Good bye .

[lukem]

So is this just flip flopping on the models or has something fundamentally changed in the forecast? The 18z GFS looked incredible for most of Texas yesterday, and today's 12z is showing almost no rain for the middle section of the state, and not much for west or south Texas unless you are right on the coast. I thought the biggest threat to our rain next week was tropical development in the Gulf taking the moisture east, but it doesn't look like that will happen now. Bud is parked out in Mexico just like we hoped. Seems like all the dominoes fell just like we wanted them to fall.

[Ntxw]

So is this just flip flopping on the models or has something fundamentally changed in the forecast? The 18z GFS looked incredible for most of Texas yesterday, and today's 12z is showing almost no rain for the middle section of the state, and not much for west or south Texas unless you are right on the coast. I thought the biggest threat to our rain next week was tropical development in the Gulf taking the moisture east, but it doesn't look like that will happen now. Bud is parked out in Mexico just like we hoped. Seems like all the dominoes fell just like we wanted them to fall.

As in my post above, really nothing has changed. I want to emphasize again, if you kept believing a tropical system was going to form in the gulf and dumping lots of short term rain wherever it goes you'd be highly disappointed. That essentially was a phantom cyclone on the models. Particularly earlier runs of the GFS making a mountain out of a molehill. It's your typical summer high pwat event. Daily rain and showers will overspread the state. it's not a highly concentrated event that sweeps the whole state like a spring pattern.

[Haris]

So is this just flip flopping on the models or has something fundamentally changed in the forecast? The 18z GFS looked incredible for most of Texas yesterday, and today's 12z is showing almost no rain for the middle section of the state, and not much for west or south Texas unless you are right on the coast. I thought the biggest threat to our rain next week was tropical development in the Gulf taking the moisture east, but it doesn't look like that will happen now. Bud is parked out in Mexico just like we hoped. Seems like all the dominoes fell just like we wanted them to fall.

As in my post above, really nothing has changed. I want to emphasize again, if you kept believing a tropical system was going to form in the gulf and dumping lots of short term rain wherever it goes you'd be highly disappointed. That essentially was a phantom cyclone on the models. Particularly earlier runs of the GFS making a mountain out of a molehill. It's your typical summer high pwat event. Daily rain and showers will overspread the state. it's not a highly concentrated event that sweeps the whole state like a spring pattern.

But it doesn’t show high PWATS . There is a ridge . It’s gonna act as a wall . I don’t see how rain happens unless they weaken it or have the low form N .

[lukem]

So is this just flip flopping on the models or has something fundamentally changed in the forecast? The 18z GFS looked incredible for most of Texas yesterday, and today's 12z is showing almost no rain for the middle section of the state, and not much for west or south Texas unless you are right on the coast. I thought the biggest threat to our rain next week was tropical development in the Gulf taking the moisture east, but it doesn't look like that will happen now. Bud is parked out in Mexico just like we hoped. Seems like all the dominoes fell just like we wanted them to fall.

As in my post above, really nothing has changed. I want to emphasize again, if you kept believing a tropical system was going to form in the gulf and dumping lots of short term rain wherever it goes you'd be highly disappointed. That essentially was a phantom cyclone on the models. Particularly earlier runs of the GFS making a mountain out of a molehill. It's your typical summer high pwat event. Daily rain and showers will overspread the state. it's not a highly concentrated event that sweeps the whole state like a spring pattern.

Thanks for the explanation. I think many of us are here are hoping for some nice rain relief this week, and any hint of that not happening sends us into a panic. I will try to be patient and see how the event unfolds!

[Ntxw]

But it doesn’t show high PWATS . There is a ridge . It’s gonna act as a wall . I don’t see how rain happens unless they weaken it or have the low form N .

PWATs on nearly all guidance runs above normal this entire week for most of the state. The 500mb ridge is split, one in the Pacific NW and one in the Southeast US. Our flow is from the gulf and EPAC. This is a favorable environment for summer showers. This is not a 500mb ridge of death pattern...one you would usually see around the Summer Solstice. It is not the kind of rainfall where you see huge swaths get a whopping 5" of rain. This is the stuff you see in Florida during their wet season.

[Portastorm]

Gfs has less than ONE INCH IN AUSTIN!!!!!!

I KNEW this was toooo good to be true !!!

I quit and hate my emotional attachment to weather . Good bye .

Lucy (GFS) strikes again! LOL. Oh my young friend, you have so much to learn.

[boca]

I sure hope you guys get rain out of this system, I would send you rain from Florida if I could we got a ton lately.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro with another shift south. 1-2" of rain for Coastal and South Texas but that is about it.

[Cpv17]

12z Euro with another shift south. 1-2" of rain for Coastal and South Texas but that is about it.

Models must be having a really hard time with this

[Haris]

12z Euro with another shift south. 1-2" of rain for Coastal and South Texas but that is about it.

yea but look! the EPS trended wetter ! LOL! WHAT A M.E.S.S

[weatherdude1108]

I think the models have a hard time with these tropical air masses. You either get nothing, or 7 inches. All depends on where you are.

[TheProfessor]

I like how the control run shows basically nothing for Central and North Texas then you click on the 1st ensemble member and BOOM! 26" just east of Austin and 10" just Southwest of Fort Worth.

[TheProfessor]

18z ICON's solution seems like it would be very fun as long as that rain doesn't die before moving north. Although it's very unlikely to happen.

[bubba hotep]

18z ICON's solution seems like it would be very fun as long as that rain doesn't die before moving north. Although it's very unlikely to happen.

Then there was the 12z CMC



And 18z GFS expanded rains back north



Various differences in ridging to the east and surface development in the Gulf are giving the models fits right now.