Texas Fall 2020

[CaptinCrunch]

Regardless how September goes out, October looks to be above normal temperature wise and drier than normal which is typical of the La Nina pattern. What we need to look at is whether or not it carries over to November? If so then Winter could very well follow suit, but with brief periods of cold to extreme cold, but over all the warmth will win out for the typical La Nina Winter of above average temps and average to below average precip.

[rwfromkansas]

Well, with La Nina, expect another crappy winter. We moved here in 2014 and were pleasantly surprised by snow. Ever since....zip. It can happen; when we lived in Midland, one of the best winters in our few years there was during a La Nina. Lots of snow. But, that's rare.

[Brent]

Well, with La Nina, expect another crappy winter. We moved here in 2014 and were pleasantly surprised by snow. Ever since....zip. It can happen; when we lived in Midland, one of the best winters in our few years there was during a La Nina. Lots of snow. But, that's rare.

you're probably right but my angle on this is they were so wrong with the cold and snowy predictions maybe they can be wrong again

I mean dont get me started on the streak again...

[Ralph's Weather]

we had more upper 40s here this morning

[Brent]

52/90 at DFW so far

but again last September never had a low below 70...

Looking ahead to the "heat wave" next week the worst I see is mid 80s which I mean Dallas has hit the mid 90s in October every year I've been here 97 last year 96 in 2018

[SoupBone]

52/90 at DFW so far

but again last September never had a low below 70...

Looking ahead to the "heat wave" next week the worst I see is mid 80s which I mean Dallas has hit the mid 90s in October every year I've been here 97 last year 96 in 2018

I just hope our doors have closed for this hurricane season. I'll take low 90's if that means it stays away from us in Houston.

[weatherdude1108]

Interesting blurb from EWX this morning regarding wildfire smoke.

One additional interesting feature to note, yesterday evening before
sunset GOES-East visible satellite imagery showed an expansive plume
of smoke aloft advecting through the Panhandle of Texas, Oklahoma,
and north Texas, which is originating from wildfires in southern
Wyoming and Colorado. The HRRR vertically integrated smoke forecast
field indicates upper level winds possibly carrying some of this
smoke aloft across northern areas of South-Central Texas today.
Again this is aloft, but could result in haze to the sky conditions.

&&

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[Brent]

52/90 at DFW so far

but again last September never had a low below 70...

Looking ahead to the "heat wave" next week the worst I see is mid 80s which I mean Dallas has hit the mid 90s in October every year I've been here 97 last year 96 in 2018

I just hope our doors have closed for this hurricane season. I'll take low 90's if that means it stays away from us in Houston.

You know I was thinking were probably done on the Atlantic side now given its October and we've already had pretty big fronts but there are some signs 91L could threaten if it hangs around long enough for example the GFS is just south of Brownsville at day 12!!

I don't buy it at all but its something to watch with nothing else going on weather wise around here

[Cpv17]

52/90 at DFW so far

but again last September never had a low below 70...

Looking ahead to the "heat wave" next week the worst I see is mid 80s which I mean Dallas has hit the mid 90s in October every year I've been here 97 last year 96 in 2018

I just hope our doors have closed for this hurricane season. I'll take low 90's if that means it stays away from us in Houston.

You know I was thinking were probably done on the Atlantic side now given its October and we've already had pretty big fronts but there are some signs 91L could threaten if it hangs around long enough for example the GFS is just south of Brownsville at day 12!!

I don't buy it at all but its something to watch with nothing else going on weather wise around here

Yeah it’s about the only thing to talk about.

[SoupBone]

52/90 at DFW so far

but again last September never had a low below 70...

Looking ahead to the "heat wave" next week the worst I see is mid 80s which I mean Dallas has hit the mid 90s in October every year I've been here 97 last year 96 in 2018

I just hope our doors have closed for this hurricane season. I'll take low 90's if that means it stays away from us in Houston.

You know I was thinking were probably done on the Atlantic side now given its October and we've already had pretty big fronts but there are some signs 91L could threaten if it hangs around long enough for example the GFS is just south of Brownsville at day 12!!

I don't buy it at all but its something to watch with nothing else going on weather wise around here

It's nuts, and I'm completely done with this hurricane season. Too many new gray hairs from this season.

[SoupBone]

So I get that this is the Texas Fall thread, but what keeps Delta from impacting us? Seems like there are models that are coming more west with each run, getting concerningly close to us.

[Cpv17]

No rain in sight for basically the whole state for the next couple weeks. The boring weather pattern looks to continue.

[Brent]

No rain in sight for basically the whole state for the next couple weeks. The boring weather pattern looks to continue.

I'm glad it's not 100 anymore but really October being this dry? I guess it's a preview with La Nina but still

I'm sure another hurricane recurving to our east is just gonna prolong this too

plot twist the 0z Euro almost hits Texas

[Cpv17]

No rain in sight for basically the whole state for the next couple weeks. The boring weather pattern looks to continue.

I'm glad it's not 100 anymore but really October being this dry? I guess it's a preview with La Nina but still

I'm sure another hurricane recurving to our east is just gonna prolong this too

plot twist the 0z Euro almost hits Texas

Looks like a repeat of Laura but maybe not quite as strong.

[Ntxw]

Near record highs coming for DFW. Cane in the gulf moving towards our east . Almost comical how it is so easy to pick out hot weather with Atlantic systems (when they don't directly effect us).

Hoping the best for those in the path, the same areas of the gulf having to deal with yet again.

[Tireman4]

Near record highs coming for DFW. Cane in the gulf moving towards our east . Almost comical how it is so easy to pick out hot weather with Atlantic systems (when they don't directly effect us).

Hoping the best for those in the path, the same areas of the gulf having to deal with yet again.

Well, you know..it is 2020 and the Cleveland Browns are 3 and 1. Who knows....right Porta..?

[South Texas Storms]

Near record highs coming for DFW. Cane in the gulf moving towards our east . Almost comical how it is so easy to pick out hot weather with Atlantic systems (when they don't directly effect us).

Hoping the best for those in the path, the same areas of the gulf having to deal with yet again.

Yeah it's gonna suck. But I'll take it over a hurricane hit here and being without power for days or even weeks. Houston really lucked out with Laura and Delta now.

[Ntxw]

It looks like the ECMWF (better know as the Euro) is now open source and most if it or nearly all of its data is provided free! This means we can more freely access it and post it. We've seen them loosen their access the past decade but now one of the best if not the best medium range model is available for all to see! Something to look forward this coming winter season.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-ce ... -open-data

[Ntxw]

Been awhile since I've made an ENSO post. Of course SSTAs are changing from the historical but regardless we can still use what we have as a possible guidance.

The latest ONI index reading was -0.6C which is quite chilly for the period early in the ENSO stage (relatively speaking). It's been quite evident since the Atlantic is the leading ACE basin for the globe. Also a clear trend in dry air (we've hit lower lows quite easily the past couple of months) and lesser rainfall amounts. It's been awhile since we've had a record rainfall tally, been common since 2015 regardless of ENSO state.

What does this all entail? This winter will be different and likely follow path of ENSO. I'm guessing we will see the strongest Nina since 2010. For winter it means as whole it could be warmer that average but the coldest outbreaks will likely feature the coldest temperatures (we should continue these lower lows) for awhile. It will be dry, but dry air is also cold air. It's a pity we aren't getting heavy bouts of rain but it also tells us warmer air is less prevalent. Some wild swings in temperatures like 80s to 10s between airmasses. 2016-2017, 2017-2018 La Ninas despite having short mild winters, the coldest temps at DFW were 13, and 14F which were colder than 2013-2014 and 2014-2015, these two overall being colder winters.

Core of the warmth my guess is centered in the southeastern US especially Florida and the Gulf coast due to the -PDO.

[Brent]

Just to add to that... Not much rain but some big fronts on the LR GFS there is some snow in the Panhandle and Oklahoma with this