Just heard from the daughter and they are fine surprisingly. They had minor leakage into the house where they know they have a problem, but there streets are already drained(Copperfield). Son called and was on the way to work!!


Moderator: S2k Moderators
Major flooding continues across western Harris County.
Channels:
Cypress Creek: out of banks and rising
Willow Creek: out of banks and rising
Little Cypress Creek: out of banks and rising
Spring Creek: nearing bankfull and rising
Bear Creek: over FM 529 (float is at top of stilling well). Severe flooding in progress on the upper end. HCSO is reporting Bear Creek is flowing over SH 6.
S Madye Creek: out of banks, but falling
Langham Creek: out of banks, but falling
Buffalo Bayou: flood warning issued a Shepard, secondary rise expected as upstream flow reaches lower end.
White Oak Bayou: lower portion out of banks around I-45.
Addicks: Corps is closely monitor rapid increase in levels. Still forecasting possible complete inundation of SH 6 and Eldridge Pkwy.
House Flooding Reports:
Many reports in many subdivisions on Buffalo tribs, Bear, S Mayde, Dinner (U106), upper White Oak.
Forecast:
Additional rainfall is starting to redevelop over NW Harris County. Will be watching radar trends closely
Excessive rainfall continues over extreme N Harris along I-45.
Main lanes of I-45 N at Spring Stuebner is under water.
Channels: Cypress Creek: overbanks and rising
Little Cypress Creek: overbanks and rising
Willow Creek: overbanks and rising
Spring Creek: in banks and rising
Langham Creek: overbanks and falling
Bear Creek: overbanks (upper end), in banks on lower end and falling
S Mayde Creek: overbanks and falling
Buffalo Bayou: rising on the lower end below Beltway 8. Stage is cresting at Piney Point .1 foot below the flood of record.
White Oak Bayou: overbanks (low end) levels are falling.
Forecast: Watching radar trends closely as cloud cover is breaking up to the WSW of Harris County. Satellite images and GOES sounder show higher pool of PWS moving up from the middle TX coast and this along with daytime heating may allow for additional develop across the area. Not confident on any location over another for storm formation although the region bounded by Conroe to Sugar Land seems to be acting as a trigger area. Additional rainfall will only worsen ongoing significant flooding.
HouTXmetro wrote:Should we expect additional rainfall tonight or is the show over?
Forecast:
Should see a break in the rainfall this evening and overnight. Forecast models suggest a stronger short wave will approach the area later Wednesday into early Thursday and this may result in renewed rainfall. Will have to see how low level boundaries line up. Will go ahead and raise the alarm for Sunday and nearly all models are showing very high QPF as a front moves into the area and stalls out.
jasons wrote:Now, here is my 30-second rant on these RF forecasts.
This is just an unofficial observation so don't make any plans based on my "observation"...
Now that we've had the flood, susbequent forecasts will be gloom-and-doom and everyone will be on the lookout for more severe flooding.
But it seems like - frequently - with these events, it's always the first "gotcha" round that gets us off guard. The "gotcha" round, 90% of the time, isn't forecasted to be anything special. We'll have a run-of-the-mill forecast with 40% chance of rain and all of a sudden, it pounds someone for hours and the news stations switch to wall-to-wall coverage. And then - and only then - everyone gets panicked and says more flooding could be on the way....
And then nothing happens.....
Basically, it seems like when the forecast is for a 6-10" bullseye over SE Texas and we hear about it for days...when it finally gets here.....we get an inch.
But when there's a 40% chance of scattered showers - nothing special - that's when it's time to look out - that's when somebody seems to always get nailed.
I saw it in Dallas too with the snow. The rule of thumb: If you see snow on the TV news for 4 days straight, bank on going to class that day. But if there's a 20% chance of "light snow showers; no significant accumulation expected" - those seem to always be the times when you wake-up to the news scroll, and the updated AFD saying "the approaching S/W is causing more lift than expected" - and you get to stay home and make snow men.
----------------
Anyway, just a rant, directed at no particular person or organization....I just hope sometime in my lifetime these things will hit when they are forecasted, and when they're not, we pretty much know we're gonna be OK...
In the meantime...expect the unexpected.
Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”
Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot] and 22 guests