SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

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vbhoutex
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Severe Weather Possible

#2721 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Apr 28, 2009 7:54 am

My daughter and her Husband are in the 10" area. We are in the 8 to 10" area. Unfreakingbelieveable night!!! I am now over 15" for the month and 8.6"(min) of that fell last night!!
Just heard from the daughter and they are fine surprisingly. They had minor leakage into the house where they know they have a problem, but there streets are already drained(Copperfield). Son called and was on the way to work!! :eek: :eek: They are ok at their home also in Cypress Ridge. The water in our house was from the rain coming down so hard no drainage could have handled it and was only in our master bath and utility room. Anyway I am going to eat and then go to bed. Later I will be checking out our area for Jeff to make sure no homes got water in them. I know cars did because I could see them sitting with water half way up the doors. How did you fare in all of this Paul? Haven't heard from Jen so I presume they are totally flooded and without electricity. I did call it in like she asked.
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#2722 Postby jasons2k » Tue Apr 28, 2009 8:27 am

I just dumped 4.90" from the rain guage.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Severe Weather Possible

#2723 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Apr 28, 2009 8:46 am

Estimated 10.48 inches this morning, but suspect it's on the low end due to winds above 60 mph around 2:30 AM. Cars that were parked along the curb have water half way up inside. Water levels have never been this high since our sub division was built 13 years ago. Minor leakage in 1st story of our home. Prayers to all the folks that did not fare as well to my S. Thinking about you Jen. :(
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Severe Weather Possible

#2724 Postby KatDaddy » Tue Apr 28, 2009 10:35 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1030 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...
STILL A GREAT DEAL OF CONCERN FOR THE AFTN FCST...EVEN AS THE BULK
OF THE PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE NNE THIS MORNING. LOCAL 12Z SOUNDINGS
(ALONG WITH MODEL/ACARS ONES) WOULD SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THE AIR-
MASS OVER SE TX REMAINS QUITE MOIST/UNSTABLE/RELATIVELY UN-CAPPED.
ALSO SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE WSW PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. SATELLITE ALSO HINTING AT ANOTHER SURGE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER PW
VALUES MOVING UP FROM THE LOWER/MID TX COAST. THE ONE POSITIVE FOR
THE UDPATE IS THAT THE SFC BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED NORTH SO THE RAINS
SHOULD BE FOCUSED MORE UP THERE. HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR LOOPS ARE
INDICATING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN CXO/SGR. SO NOT GOING TO
CONCEDE THAT WE ARE OUT OF THE WOODS JUST YET FOR THIS AFTN. GOING
WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE ALONG WITH THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN/SVR
TSRAS. ANOTHER S/WV APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDS. BEAR WATCH IN EFFECT. 41
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Severe Weather Possible

#2725 Postby jasons2k » Tue Apr 28, 2009 11:05 am

From Jeff a few minutes ago:

Major flooding continues across western Harris County.

Channels:

Cypress Creek: out of banks and rising

Willow Creek: out of banks and rising

Little Cypress Creek: out of banks and rising

Spring Creek: nearing bankfull and rising

Bear Creek: over FM 529 (float is at top of stilling well). Severe flooding in progress on the upper end. HCSO is reporting Bear Creek is flowing over SH 6.

S Madye Creek: out of banks, but falling

Langham Creek: out of banks, but falling

Buffalo Bayou: flood warning issued a Shepard, secondary rise expected as upstream flow reaches lower end.

White Oak Bayou: lower portion out of banks around I-45.

Addicks: Corps is closely monitor rapid increase in levels. Still forecasting possible complete inundation of SH 6 and Eldridge Pkwy.

House Flooding Reports:

Many reports in many subdivisions on Buffalo tribs, Bear, S Mayde, Dinner (U106), upper White Oak.

Forecast:

Additional rainfall is starting to redevelop over NW Harris County. Will be watching radar trends closely
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Severe Weather Possible

#2726 Postby jasons2k » Tue Apr 28, 2009 11:12 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1108 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 1105 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED THAT FLASH FLOODING WAS LIKELY FROM AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR BETWEEN HOOKS AIRPORT AND SPRING MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHEAST. RAINFALL RATES HAVE APPROACHED 0.75 INCHES IN 15
MINUTES WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND THESE RATES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING IN THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE FLOOD WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SPLASHTOWN...PORTER...NEW CANEY...LAKE CONROE DAM...
BUSH-INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...WOODLOCH...TOMBALL...THE
WOODLANDS...SPRING...SHENANDOAH...PORTER HEIGHTS...PANORAMA
VILLAGE...OAK RIDGE NORTH...JERSEY VILLAGE...HUMBLE...CUT AND
SHOOT...CONROE...CHATEAU WOODS AND ALDINE.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Severe Weather Possible

#2727 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Apr 28, 2009 11:47 am

ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...FWD...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...CELLS REFORMING NR HOU AREA
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...AS WARM MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW
NWD FROM THE GOM ACROSS SE/E TX..TD'S IN THE LOW 70'S HAVE BEGUN TO
SPREAD NEWD ALONG THE TX COAST AND HAVE SPREAD INLAND TO CXO JUST N
OF HOUSTON. STRONGEST SFC MOISTURE CNVG IS CURRENTLY PRESENT ON UPWIND
EDGE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER INVOF CLL/GYB/11R DIRECTLY ON NOSE OF SLOWLY
WEAKENING 85H JET INDICATED BY PROFILERS. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU
STREAMING NWD ACROSS COASTAL TX INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR JUST E OF THE
SFC LOW. AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES..ESPECIALLY E/S OF SFC LOW WHERE
THICK CIRRUS DOES NOT OBSCURE THE SKY..EXPECT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD AND MOVE NWD. THIS WILL BRING MOD-HVY RAINS TO AREAS FROM HOU NWWD
TO WRN END OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHICH HAS HAD SOME NEW CELLS FORMING ON
ITS WRN END JUST S/SW OF THE DAL/FTW METRO AREA. WITH LOW FFG ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE HOU AREA DUE TO PREVIOUS HVY RAINS..NEW CELL DVLPMT SHOULD
BE MONITORED CLOSELY. RAINFALL RATES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 1-2"/HR FROM
THESE AND FOR STORMS IN NEXT FEW HRS. AUTOMATED STLT ESTIMATED AMOUNTS
THROUGH 16Z INDICATE UP TO 5.1" STORM TOTAL NR THE LIMESTONE/FREESTONE
BORDER WHICH HAS ACCUMULATED SINCE ABOUT 12Z.

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... &itype=vis
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Severe Weather Possible

#2728 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Apr 28, 2009 12:31 pm

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1225 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

TXC201-339-281800-
/O.CON.KHGX.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-090428T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTGOMERY TX-HARRIS TX-
1225 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR...
NORTHERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* AT 1224 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUED TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL BETWEEN THE WOODLANDS AND PORTER HEIGHTS.
MOVEMENT OF ALL ACTIVITY WAS NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...AND
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF THESE
STORMS RESULTING IN A CONTINUING THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 45 IN THE SPRING AREA ARE ALMOST COMPLETELY
IMPASSABLE.


* LOCATIONS IN THE FLOOD WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SPLASHTOWN...HOOKS AIRPORT...BUSH-INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...
TOMBALL...THE WOODLANDS...SPRING...SHENANDOAH...PANORAMA VILLAGE...
OAK RIDGE NORTH...JERSEY VILLAGE...HUMBLE...CUT AND SHOOT...CONROE
AND ALDINE.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Severe Weather Possible

#2729 Postby GalvestonDuck » Tue Apr 28, 2009 1:08 pm

Gonna try once more to post without interruption --

David, ABC13 mentioned this morning that the Bear Creek area was being evacuated due to flooding. Cy-Fair FD was doing high water rescues and they were urging people to secure their property and either shelter in place on a higher floor or evacuate to higher ground.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Severe Weather Possible

#2730 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Apr 28, 2009 1:32 pm

Latest Update from Jeff Lindner...

Excessive rainfall continues over extreme N Harris along I-45.

Main lanes of I-45 N at Spring Stuebner is under water.

Channels: Cypress Creek: overbanks and rising

Little Cypress Creek: overbanks and rising

Willow Creek: overbanks and rising

Spring Creek: in banks and rising

Langham Creek: overbanks and falling

Bear Creek: overbanks (upper end), in banks on lower end and falling

S Mayde Creek: overbanks and falling

Buffalo Bayou: rising on the lower end below Beltway 8. Stage is cresting at Piney Point .1 foot below the flood of record.

White Oak Bayou: overbanks (low end) levels are falling.

Forecast: Watching radar trends closely as cloud cover is breaking up to the WSW of Harris County. Satellite images and GOES sounder show higher pool of PWS moving up from the middle TX coast and this along with daytime heating may allow for additional develop across the area. Not confident on any location over another for storm formation although the region bounded by Conroe to Sugar Land seems to be acting as a trigger area. Additional rainfall will only worsen ongoing significant flooding.
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#2731 Postby jasons2k » Tue Apr 28, 2009 3:31 pm

I came home early - had a phone pic sent to me from our nanny with the water halfway up the driveway. A few more inches and it would have been in the house. scary.

Neighbors say it's never been this high before.
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#2732 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Apr 28, 2009 4:14 pm

Should we expect additional rainfall tonight or is the show over?
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Re:

#2733 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Apr 28, 2009 4:35 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Should we expect additional rainfall tonight or is the show over?

I never say never, but it appears that it is over for our area. We will need to watch the areas to the North to be sure they do not fire off boundaries towards the South. NWS has all Skywarn spotters on standby for the week.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Severe Weather Possible

#2734 Postby jasons2k » Tue Apr 28, 2009 5:34 pm

Here is the forecast from Jeff Lindner:
Forecast:

Should see a break in the rainfall this evening and overnight. Forecast models suggest a stronger short wave will approach the area later Wednesday into early Thursday and this may result in renewed rainfall. Will have to see how low level boundaries line up. Will go ahead and raise the alarm for Sunday and nearly all models are showing very high QPF as a front moves into the area and stalls out.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Severe Weather Possible

#2735 Postby jasons2k » Tue Apr 28, 2009 5:48 pm

Now, here is my 30-second rant on these RF forecasts.

This is just an unofficial observation so don't make any plans based on my "observation"...

Now that we've had the flood, susbequent forecasts will be gloom-and-doom and everyone will be on the lookout for more severe flooding.

But it seems like - frequently - with these events, it's always the first "gotcha" round that gets us off guard. The "gotcha" round, 90% of the time, isn't forecasted to be anything special. We'll have a run-of-the-mill forecast with 40% chance of rain and all of a sudden, it pounds someone for hours and the news stations switch to wall-to-wall coverage. And then - and only then - everyone gets panicked and says more flooding could be on the way....

And then nothing happens.....

Basically, it seems like when the forecast is for a 6-10" bullseye over SE Texas and we hear about it for days...when it finally gets here.....we get an inch.

But when there's a 40% chance of scattered showers - nothing special - that's when it's time to look out - that's when somebody seems to always get nailed.

I saw it in Dallas too with the snow. The rule of thumb: If you see snow on the TV news for 4 days straight, bank on going to class that day. But if there's a 20% chance of "light snow showers; no significant accumulation expected" - those seem to always be the times when you wake-up to the news scroll, and the updated AFD saying "the approaching S/W is causing more lift than expected" - and you get to stay home and make snow men.

----------------

Anyway, just a rant, directed at no particular person or organization....I just hope sometime in my lifetime these things will hit when they are forecasted, and when they're not, we pretty much know we're gonna be OK...

In the meantime...expect the unexpected.
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#2736 Postby jasons2k » Tue Apr 28, 2009 8:35 pm

We are out of power right now - there was a blown fuse and when they went to fix that, they blew a transformer. So, no Idol tonight for me :x

Anyway, I checked the rain guage and I couldn't see the water line.

I tapped it a few times and again I still couldn't see it. I thought "what the heck? it can't be empty!?"

Finally, it dawned on me that the water level was all the way to the top! We had 6.10" + inches of rain in that three-hour period from about 9AM to noon! Amazing. That's over 10" in about 12 hours!

The neighbors confirmed today's water rise was the highest in the neighborhood, ever. A neighbor across the street was one of the first residents back in 1994 and he said today's mini-flood topped the water level for both the '94 flood and Allison.

The good news, I guess, is that no houses have ever flooded here. But today it was getting close...

Supposedly down Rayford Road a bit it was a lot worse but I have not seen it firsthand.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Severe Weather Possible

#2737 Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Apr 28, 2009 8:43 pm

jasons wrote:Now, here is my 30-second rant on these RF forecasts.

This is just an unofficial observation so don't make any plans based on my "observation"...

Now that we've had the flood, susbequent forecasts will be gloom-and-doom and everyone will be on the lookout for more severe flooding.

But it seems like - frequently - with these events, it's always the first "gotcha" round that gets us off guard. The "gotcha" round, 90% of the time, isn't forecasted to be anything special. We'll have a run-of-the-mill forecast with 40% chance of rain and all of a sudden, it pounds someone for hours and the news stations switch to wall-to-wall coverage. And then - and only then - everyone gets panicked and says more flooding could be on the way....

And then nothing happens.....

Basically, it seems like when the forecast is for a 6-10" bullseye over SE Texas and we hear about it for days...when it finally gets here.....we get an inch.

But when there's a 40% chance of scattered showers - nothing special - that's when it's time to look out - that's when somebody seems to always get nailed.

I saw it in Dallas too with the snow. The rule of thumb: If you see snow on the TV news for 4 days straight, bank on going to class that day. But if there's a 20% chance of "light snow showers; no significant accumulation expected" - those seem to always be the times when you wake-up to the news scroll, and the updated AFD saying "the approaching S/W is causing more lift than expected" - and you get to stay home and make snow men.

----------------

Anyway, just a rant, directed at no particular person or organization....I just hope sometime in my lifetime these things will hit when they are forecasted, and when they're not, we pretty much know we're gonna be OK...

In the meantime...expect the unexpected.


Very true. The worst things come without warning.
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#2738 Postby JenBayles » Wed Apr 29, 2009 7:19 am

Our lives are a smoking ruin. Our home in Bear Creek filled with 14" of water from 3:00 a.m. to 6:00 a.m. yesterday morning. We got 11" of rain in three hours. Flooding has been worsening in this area for several years. Why? Harris County insists on approving new development permits in our watershed, and the US Army Corps of Engineers has not expanded out drainage infrastructure to handle the additional runoff. Can't shoot the goose who lays the golden development/ tax revenue eggs.

The water came up so fast there was no time to get anything much off the floors, so most of our furninshings and appliances are destined for the landfill. We had to swim the dogs to the house next door which is about 6 inches higher than ours. Maggie was on the couch in the office and would have floated out of the house on it had we stayed any longer. Our neighbor's house was entirely flooded throughout, but at less than half the level of ours. We just picked a bed as an island and spent a couple of shocked hours waiting for the rain to stop and the water to go down enough to head back into our own home. I barely had time to be scared things happened so quickly, but the worst was swimming at the side of the house with our dalmatian who doesn't swim. I lost all my work shoes and flip flops in the flood, so my feet are raw from being wet for nearly 24 hours.

From about 6:00 to 11:00 Dave and I just sat on the tailgate of the truck and waited for the water to recede enough to get started on cleanup. Honestly, in situations like this you just don't know where to begin. Our living room is sunken by about 5 inches, and we were able to pump out about half that amount. After that, it was down to hand-bailing it out the back door. Funny. I didn't cry much yesterday, but I'm a complete waterworks this morning faced with the monumental task that awaits. All this on top of Dave remaining unemployed, me being disabled and sick, Mom being sick and needing assistance... all we need now is a walloping dose of Swine Flu and maybe we won't NEED to worry about this any longer!

With help from my brother-in-law, Mike and our good biker buddy, Deano, we managed to get the carpet out of one bedroom and make it habitable enough until the rest of the house gets gutted today. God bless Bear Creek United Methodist Church for sending out voluteers this morning to help get out the wrecked furniture and carpet. We have another crew due this afternoon to tackle the sheetrock. The smell is indescribable. And many, MANY thanks to Katie who is salvaging what photos she can of our turn of the century relations. Most of you know of my passion for genealogy, and the loss of those photos hurts me more than anything else. Even my heirloomed wedding dress went under. It's currently hanging outside and I'm hoping it can be salvaged. Who knows?

Mom has been a rock since she learned about our situation. I can say in all honesty that our financial situation is so dire, we wouldn't survive this without her help. Hmmmm... I wonder if that would extend to some of her tranquilizers? ;-)

I have Mom's car over here and it got some water on the floorboards. We'll tackle gettting that towed and checked out today. Don't know yet if the Harley survived the deluge, but the truck is fine. The pool is nothing but a seething, black cesspool of raw sewage and things I don't even want to discover.

That's it for now. I'll send a link to photos as soon as I can find the cable I need to get them out of the camera and into the computer.

If anyone can volunteer to help remove damaged furnishings from the 200+ homes in the area, contact Bear Creek United Methodist Church. They are gathering this morning at 9:00 and sending crews out into the neighborhood to help with the heavy lifting jobs like carpet removal. The church is also in Red Cross Shelter mode, and assistance is always needed when they mobilize in that capacity.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Severe Weather Possible

#2739 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Apr 29, 2009 7:34 am

Oh Jen, I am some so sorry and have been very worried for you and your family. Please know that my thoughts and prayers are with you and yours. I know that it may not be much of a comfort, but please know that you have friends that will keep you and your family in our prayers.
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#2740 Postby JenBayles » Wed Apr 29, 2009 7:38 am

Thanks srain. I saw your note during yesterday's craziness and was very touched to see that this morning. Like I said a couple pages back, when the Bear Creek Dome fails, it does so spectacularly...
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