Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES OF THE DAY INDICATE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
33W-37W...AND FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 32W-36W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 12N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT
THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-9N BETWEEN 55W-58W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE
LIES WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...AS WELL AS BROAD
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW INDICATED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT
ZONE ALOFT SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE WRN
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-11N
BETWEEN 73W-80W...FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 78W-83W...AND FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 73W-78W. THIS CONVECTION IS PROBABLY MOST
INFLUENCED BY THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THAN SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 9N24W 8N34W 7N44W 7N61W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 17W-23W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 11W-16W...FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 19W-21W...FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 24W-27W...AND FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 26W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOW PUSHED
COMPLETELY SE OUT OF THE BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS EXTENDS OVER THE GULF N OF 21N. A SMALL
PORTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR SW BASIN
EXTENDING FROM MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO
BUILD N OF 25N. SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT REMAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BASIN...AND ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE BASIN BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT E LATER TODAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N79W ALONG 20N84W 19N86W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FRONT. N TO NE
SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS ALONG 78W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE WAVE ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE BASIN
CENTERED NEAR 11N75W ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 73W-80W...FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 78W-83W...AND FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 73W-78W. THE ACTIVITY
IS PROBABLY ENHANCED MORE BY THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAN
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE WAVE. THE ERN CARIBBEAN REMAINS
FAIRLY CALM E OF 73W WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS BETWEEN
68W-75W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN TO
CONTINUE PUSHING SE AND STALL AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N72W EXTENDING ALONG 27N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W.
RECENT LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FRONT AXIS. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
27N-30N BETWEEN 66W-69W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE WRN ATLC. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WRN ATLC IS COVERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR 30N57W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 30N57W...AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 34N50W.
FARTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N39W EXTENDING ALONG 26N39W TO 17N49W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N34W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 31N27W TO 21N34W. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE THE AXIS. THIS TROUGH
IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N34W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
S OF 22N E OF 40W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ALONG THE ITCZ...AND ALSO SHEARING MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO THE
NE. THIS MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS SE OF A LINE FROM 11N47W TO 23N16W.

$$
WALTON

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
228 PM AST SUN OCT 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRIER AIR MASS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...LIMITING SIGNIFICANTLY THE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
AND CLOUDS COVERAGE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT LEAST TROUGH MONDAY...WHEN MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVES ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM MODELS AGREED WITH
THIS...INCREASING THE POPS AND RH VALUES FOR THIS DAY. IN THE LONG
TERM...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AS A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND
MOVES WESTWARD CLOSER TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS WILL INDUCE A
MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER..THE NAM12 MODEL SHOWS A SUSPICIOUS LOW DEVELOPING NEAR
THE LESSER ANTILLES BRINGING ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW...THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT LOOKS REASONABLE.
GFS/ECMWF MODELS LOOKS TO HANDLE BETTER MID TO LONG TERM FORECAST.
THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO... INCLUDING TJMZ AND AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF
TJBQ THROUGH 18/21Z...IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. IN ADDITION...ONGOING PLUME OF VOLCANIC ASH
AND STEAM FROM MONTSERRAT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO SIGMET LIMA 17.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N21W 10N23W 6N24W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW CLUSTERS FROM 10N TO 16N
BETWEEN 20W AND 24W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N33W 9N35W 4N36W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W TO THE SOUTH
OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SHOWERS IN THE ITCZ ARE NEAR
THIS WAVE.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W TO
THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. THE FORECAST IS
FOR THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM
10N TO THE COAST BETWEEN THE BORDER WITH VENEZUELA ALONG 72W/73W
AND 76W...AND IN EASTERN PANAMA NEAR 9N78W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N79W. AFTERNOON
HEATING PROBABLY HAS ADDED ENERGY TO THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...WITH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. SOME UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALSO.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
431 AM AST MON OCT 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WEST SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
MAINTAINING AN EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SMALL AREAS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE PREVAILING
EASTERLY WIND FLOW...PRODUCED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND MIMIC
TPW ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS THIS MORNING...CONTINUE TO INDICATED THAT
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE FA TO INDUCE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS TO
INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W SOUTH OF 13N WILL
ENTER THE SE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING...PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE
FA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NO IMPACTS OVER THE LOCAL REGION. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE PRESENT WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS REASONING THE
GFS FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGESTS MODERATE PWAT VALUES OF 1.60 INCHES
OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTHEAST
OF THE FA THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK...SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCAL TERMINALS
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL IMPACTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...PASSING CLDS WITH BASES BTW 020-060 FT AND MAINLY ISOLD
TRADE WIND SHRA WILL CROSS THE REGION BTWN THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS AND
PUERTO RICO TIL 19/12Z. THIS WILL BRING TEMPO MVFR IN AND AROUND
TNCM AND TKPK AND ENROUTE BTWN USVI AND ERN PR. THEREAFTER...FM
19/17Z-19/21Z BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND LCL MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE PSBL IN
SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR...INCLUDING
TJMZ AND VCNTY TJBQ. ELSEWHERE...THE GENERAL LLVL WND FLOW WILL KEEP
THE ONGOING PLUME OF VOLCANIC ASH AND STEAM FROM MONTSERRAT SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND FLYING AREA TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST VA
ADVISORIES AND SIGMET.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191138
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM ACROSS THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC AS OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE FIELDS OF 850 MB RELATIVE
VORTICITY AND 700 MB STREAMLINES ALSO DEPICT CYCLONIC TURNING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-28W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-17N BETWEEN 19W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM OBSERVED ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC E OF 40W IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CIMSS WAVETRAK MODEL GUIDANCE
ALSO DEPICTS A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED ON
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE N OF 8N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 35W-39W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. AN AREA
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PROPAGATING WWD ACROSS EASTERN
VENEZUELA AND PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC S OF 11N W OF
59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 57W-63W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE LIES WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AS OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A
STATIONARY 1010 MB LOW IS IMMEDIATELY E OF THE WAVE AXIS
CENTERED NEAR 12N82W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE LIES ALOFT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS AND IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS MODERATE AND
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 78W-84W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 12N22W 12N25W 9N35W 8N39W
6N58W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 24W-35W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE W
AFRICA COAST FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 12W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE NEAR
36N84W EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER FLORIDA...THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO AND EASTERN MEXICO. N-NE WINDS UP TO 20 KT DOMINATE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT E-SE OVER
THE NW GULF. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A STABLE
DRY AND COOLER AIRMASS ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH AXIS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD AND A PORTION OF THE
WESTERN ATLC. NWLY WINDS ALOFT AND VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE
OVER THE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EASTWARD REMAINING MOSTLY OVER MUCH
OF THE GULF THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SLY RETURN FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WRN GULF BY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO
ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS ON THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND GULF OF
MEXICO DIPPING SOUTH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND CONTINUES ALONG
19N80W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL HONDURAS COAST NEAR 16N85W.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TO THE SOUTH OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W AND A 1010 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 12N82W ARE PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS FROM THE ITCZ AXIS ACROSS PANAMA ALONG 9N
TO 17N BETWEEN 76W-84W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POSITIONED ACROSS
THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF 72W IS ALSO ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION. E
OF 72W...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND GENERALLY DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT
ARE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ELY TRADE WINDS UP TO 20
KT. A FEW ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER OCCURRING N OF
15N E OF 72W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N68W AND EXTENDS
S-SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W OF 68W
WITH AXIS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND
CENTRAL CUBA. A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 34N51W. A WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 16N49W TO 27N44W AND BEYOND
32N45W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC ALONG
26N31W TO 31N27W. THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES ARE SUPPORTED ALOFT
BY AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N42W. THE UPPER
LOW STRETCHES NE TO 28N31W AND SW TOWARDS THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N64W.

$$
HUFFMAN

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST MON OCT 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
HIGH IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. IN THE
MEANTIME...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA
CONTINUING OVER SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.

UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST
AND THEN NORTH NORTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE EAST TO EAST
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY.



&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE INCREASED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SINCE THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS AND EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO HOURS...BEFORE IT
DISSIPATES OVER LAND AND MOVE TOWARDS THE MONA CHANNEL WATERS.
AFTERWARD...EXPECT A FAIR NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTING PARTS
OF THE EASTERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...ADJACENT ISLANDS AND
COASTAL WATERS.

EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS WE HAVE SEEN TODAY
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH HEAVIEST SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH
REFLECTION FROM THE UPPER LOW ABOVE MENTIONED...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SOMEWHAT
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE
AREA...WILL RESULT IN AN AUGMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...NO EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT TO AFFECT THE CWA.




&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL LOCAL TAF SITES
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...TJMZ...MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR
AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE AIRPORT.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[OURAGAN]

A QUASI STATIONARY 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N34.5W.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE LOW WAS
LEFT BEHIND BY THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 31W-34W. .

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
957 PM AST MON OCT 19 2009

.UPDATE...THE 00Z SOUNDING REVEALED THE FIRST SIGNS OF AN EXPECTED
WIND SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE MOVING SOUTHWEST WHILE
SHOWERS OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF PUERTO RICO CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST. THE TREND TOWARD MORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT LAND BREEZES UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MAY KEEP MORE OF THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE
TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT NORTHEAST COAST POPS NEAR 20
PERCENT NEAR THE METRO AREA. HAVE MADE FEW OTHER CHANGES. A BAND
OF MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE TUTT LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHEAST MAY HAVE MORE EFFECT THAN FIRST THOUGHT ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST AND SHOWERS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...WITH A
VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...THE VI...TNCM AND TKPK. AFT
20/16Z...EXPECT SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PR...POSSIBLY BRINGING TEMPORARY
MVFR CONDS TO TJPS BETWEEN 17-22Z.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
442 AM AST TUE OCT 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN...NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...CONTINUING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SMALL AREAS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE PREVAILING
EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW PRODUCED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND MIMIC TPW ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS THIS
MORNING...CONTINUE TO INDICATED THAT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM TIME
TO TIME ACROSS THE FA TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL TERRAIN
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A SURFACE REFLECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW...EAST
NORTHEAST OF THE FA THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS REASONING THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDING
INDICATES MODERATE PWAT VALUES OF 1.59 INCHES OR LESS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 750 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201120
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM ACROSS THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC AS OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE FIELDS OF 850 MB RELATIVE
VORTICITY AND 700 MB STREAMLINES ALSO DEPICT CYCLONIC TURNING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE LOCATED E OF THE WAVE FROM
13N-18N BETWEEN 22W-27W.

$$
HUFFMAN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
339 PM AST TUE OCT 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...MAINTAINING A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SENSIBLE WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DICTATED
BY SMALL BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND INTERACTING WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN DIURNALLY AND NOCTURNALLY FAVORED AREAS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING AT
LEAST IN THE VICINITIES OF TJPS AND TJMZ THROUGH ABOUT 20/22Z.
PLUME OF VOLCANIC ASH AND STEAM WILL REMAIN LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 13 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WITH SOME NORTH SWELLS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS
IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
854 PM AST TUE OCT 20 2009

.UPDATE...HEAVY RAINS LINGERED LONG OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION
OF PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING SENDING THE RIO GUANAJIBO WITHIN 14
INCHES OF ITS FLOOD STAGE OF 20 FEET. AT THIS TIME IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO FLOOD AND SHOULD CREST WITHIN TWO HOURS...BUT WILL
WATCH IT CLOSELY. AT 8:50 PM AST RAINS SHOWED SIGNS OF MOVING OFF
SHORE TO THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE HOUR. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH
HAS BEEN SPINNING EVER CLOSER TO PUERTO RICO...APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHEAST...HAS SLOWED SOME AND THE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION
AROUND IT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ARE FAIRLY WEAK. THESE SHOW UP
IN THE WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AS SCATTERED CELLS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN
BETWEEN 115 AND 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF SAN JUAN. THE CELLS
WERE MOVING SOUTH...BUT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD REACH LAND
BEFORE THE NIGHT IS OVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GRIDS SEEMED TO HANDLE THE CURRENT SITUATION QUITE
ADEQUATELY AND WILL NOT ISSUE AN UPDATE TONIGHT. NO MAJOR WEATHER
FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS
AND THE AIR MASS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA WILL GENERALLY HAVE ITS
ORIGINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH 30 OCT...ACCORDING TO
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL INDICATE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATUREAND
PRECIPITATION PATTERNS FOR THE TIME BEING.