Discussion (May 18-19-20-21) Moore Tornado EF-5 from NWS

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#281 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon May 20, 2013 3:39 am

Well, they've carried the Slight up into the northeast for Wednesday, but no upgrade for Tuesday yet.
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#282 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon May 20, 2013 7:12 am

I don't see anything that would indicate the tornado was anything greater than an EF3, if that. The mobile home park is a mess, yes, but the brick homes within that park are hardly damaged.

Forbes said winds could've been in the 100-130 mph range (EF2), but not much higher.
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Re: Discussion of Severe Weather Outbreak for May 18-19-20

#283 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 20, 2013 8:00 am

The SPC update for Monday at 13:00Z has a 10% chance for Tornadoes.
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#284 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 20, 2013 10:27 am

AP says a 2nd person has died in hospital...
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#285 Postby Bunkertor » Mon May 20, 2013 10:55 am

Storms could fire at first in N OK. Cape, EHI and Li´s show the highest values there by 18z
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#286 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 20, 2013 10:57 am

Initial report from NWS Norman: at least EF-4 in Shawnee

https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/336508356858626048
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Re:

#287 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon May 20, 2013 12:07 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Initial report from NWS Norman: at least EF-4 in Shawnee

https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/336508356858626048
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#288 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 20, 2013 12:27 pm

NWS Norman confirmed as well that the cap is almost broken. Initiation shouldn't be too far away.
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#289 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 20, 2013 12:35 pm

Tornado Watches coming out soon. Also a Moderate Risk for tomorrow as well.
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Re:

#290 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon May 20, 2013 12:42 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Also a Moderate Risk for tomorrow as well.

ArkLaTex region.


That makes 4 consecutive Moderate Days which must be some kind of unusual.
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Re: Discussion of Severe Weather Outbreak for May 18-19-20-21

#291 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 20, 2013 12:43 pm

Wow,four days now. I added the 21rst to both titles.
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Re: Re:

#292 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 20, 2013 12:45 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Also a Moderate Risk for tomorrow as well.

ArkLaTex region.


That makes 4 consecutive Moderate Days which must be some kind of unusual.


Can't remember the last time it happened, maybe late May or early June 2008? or 2003-04?
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Re:

#293 Postby Bunkertor » Mon May 20, 2013 12:53 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:NWS Norman confirmed as well that the cap is almost broken. Initiation shouldn't be too far away.

OK, LCL=LFC here. But can anyone explain what the "red nose" means. It normally means strong cap...
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/13052017_OBS/
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#294 Postby Ntxw » Mon May 20, 2013 12:57 pm

It seems there was a lag time between the MJO awakening in the IO and connection with west coast troughing to give us this set up. Currently it is in the maritime phases which correlates well with the La Nina-like conditions and -PNA set up. I dismissed it after seeing the models shunt the wave away into the dead circle with minimal impact, which was the wrong assumption.

Latest from the SPC

Image
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#295 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 20, 2013 12:58 pm

The last time there was such a long streak of Moderate Risks that I can find was 2008:

May 29 - HIGH
May 30 - MDT
May 31 - MDT
June 1 - MDT
June 2 - MDT
June 3 - MDT
June 4 - MDT
June 5 - HIGH
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#296 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon May 20, 2013 1:01 pm

^^ With no Highs in this string, we're not even close then.
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#297 Postby EF-5bigj » Mon May 20, 2013 2:31 pm

More strong tornadoes today?
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#298 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon May 20, 2013 2:44 pm

Two storms ok OK now Tornado Warned. One including Moore, OK area.
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#299 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 20, 2013 2:45 pm

It's taking off so fast it is crazy...
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#300 Postby EF-5bigj » Mon May 20, 2013 2:46 pm

That took off quickly...yesh.
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