Texas Spring 2019

[Cerlin]

The models trending away from a big event, both rainfall totals and svr wx, sucked the air out of my interest. This looks pretty run of the mill for most of the area.

Yeah not sure what happened but this storm is a far cry from what it looked like a few days ago. Nothing special now. Much like what happened Saturday

Hope this isnt a sign of the spring

It was a sign of the winter too. I think we can say most events will be 50-75% of what the models show a few days before.

[cheezyWXguy]

The models trending away from a big event, both rainfall totals and svr wx, sucked the air out of my interest. This looks pretty run of the mill for most of the area.

Yeah not sure what happened but this storm is a far cry from what it looked like a few days ago. Nothing special now. Much like what happened Saturday

Hope this isnt a sign of the spring

It's not like the storm isn't as strong is it was forecast to be a few days ago, it's really more a timing/trajectory thing. FWD's AFD from the afternoon mentions SRH values of 500-600m2/s2 and a low level jet of 65kt on Wednesday morning. But that's the problem -- Wednesday morning. No instability. And even still, they are hesitant to write of tornadic potential along the line altogether. If you had the exact same storm 12 hours earlier/later, this event would be far more significant, and while I am a bit disappointed at what an "almost" this is, I'm not ready to say that this is how every event will play out this season.

[Ntxw]

The quality of moisture/quality return isn't ideal either. I think even if timing was good, we'd still have some struggles. It's been a very cold start to March. Being in the 50s before a deep storm isn't going to cut it. You need a stout boundary between dry, stable air and rich, warm, moist laden demarcation to fire the good stuff. Generally the forcing from the system itself is best for MCS events which we'll see tonight.

In other news the overall guidance is nearly in unison calling for a second year El Nino, possibly stronger than the first one. There is usually a heavy spring barrier with poor skill, but there is low spread this go around.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Have picked up 1.34” since midnight last night with what looks to be more heading this way.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The quality of moisture/quality return isn't ideal either. I think even if timing was good, we'd still have some struggles. It's been a very cold start to March. Being in the 50s before a deep storm isn't going to cut it. You need a stout boundary between dry, stable air and rich, warm, moist laden demarcation to fire the good stuff. Generally the forcing from the system itself is best for MCS events which we'll see tonight.

In other news the overall guidance is nearly in unison calling for a second year El Nino, possibly stronger than the first one. There is usually a heavy spring barrier with poor skill, but there is low spread this go around.

https://images2.imgbox.com/e9/c4/mIDlmjsR_o.jpg

As long as 1+2 isn’t in the 1.5 plus range we should be good.

[Cerlin]

Really nice steady hard rain right now. Loving the sounds of the drops hitting the roof.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Really nice steady hard rain right now. Loving the sounds of the drops hitting the roof.

Personally, I'm so over the rain. My yard hasn't dried out for more than a day in months and now the grass is starting to get long, but I can't cut it because it's wet. It takes a few days to dry so not to ruin the mower, and then it rains again. I need about 2 weeks of dry cloudless sunny days.

[cheezyWXguy]

HRRR isn't showing much weakening of the line as it enters the DFW area. Also shows winds at 70kts 1km above the ground. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it doesn't seem like it would take much to bring strong winds down to the surface in an event like this, despite the lack of surface instability in the area.

[Cerlin]

Really nice steady hard rain right now. Loving the sounds of the drops hitting the roof.

Personally, I'm so over the rain. My yard hasn't dried out for more than a day in months and now the grass is starting to get long, but I can't cut it because it's wet. It takes a few days to dry so not to ruin the mower, and then it rains again. I need about 2 weeks of dry cloudless sunny days.

The forecast for the latter half of this week after this rain event into next looks dry and sunny, so your yard will more than likely be able to dry out a bit before our wet pattern resumes.

[bubba hotep]

HRRR isn't showing much weakening of the line as it enters the DFW area. Also shows winds at 70kts 1km above the ground. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it doesn't seem like it would take much to bring strong winds down to the surface in an event like this, despite the lack of surface instability in the area.

These systems often arrive a couple of hours earlier than models show, that should help the line hold together a bit more.

[Brent]

Really nice steady hard rain right now. Loving the sounds of the drops hitting the roof.

Personally, I'm so over the rain. My yard hasn't dried out for more than a day in months and now the grass is starting to get long, but I can't cut it because it's wet. It takes a few days to dry so not to ruin the mower, and then it rains again. I need about 2 weeks of dry cloudless sunny days.

What's weird is it hasnt even rained that much really

[weatherdude1108]

EWX Discussion:

000
FXUS64 KEWX 122059
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
359 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Upper low over Baja region will be moving east and then northeast
across the southern plains over the next 24 hours. Water vapor
imagery shows strong diffluence ahead of the system and associated
lift is already occurring over northern Mexico. As this system
approaches, our cwa has transitioned to a warm sector, bringing the
needed instability to support convection later tonight.

A foggy start of the day has improved drastically as the warm front
pushed north through all the cwa and this unstable and breezy
atmosphere will remain in place overnight. Will continue small pop
for the late afternoon and evening for showers, and maybe isolated TS
out west. A few of the HRRR runs are starting to show some pre-
squall line sh/ts come across the Rio Grande near DRT in the late
evening hours. Will have to watch for severe threat with this
activity before the forecast squall line associated with the pacific
front/dry line pushes into the CWA after midnight. Looks like the far
western Edwards Plateau will be under the threat of strong/severe
storms between midnight to 3AM...Hill Country 3-6 AM...pushing into
the I-35 corridor around morning rush hour...6-10 AM, and 8 AM-noon
east of I-35, and along I-10. Once the line passes AUS/SAT...mid the
late morning clearing with the POP ending quickly west to east as
large dry slot moves in from the SW and wraps into a surface low over
the TX/OK panhandles. Severe parameters are best out west, and with
the storms coming into AUS/SAT region around dawn which is
historically the most stable time of the day, widespread severe
weather is not expected over our eastern areas.

Lower humidities behind this system and some gusty west winds will
bring some near critical fire conditions to the far west and Rio
Grande Plains both Wed and Thu. With the downsloping west winds on
Wednesday, temps will still warn into the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Mainly 50s Wed night.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
As we get into Thursday, the upper low and surface low
will be moving east into the upper MS valley with cool air filtering
down into Texas on the back side. Will see an associated cool down
with respect to day and night temps...highs mainly in the 60s and
lows in the 40s. A upper zonal flow will keep pop out of the
extended forecast. Long range models do show an upper low coming into
the southern Rockies but with surface ridging still in place, dont
expect enough moisture return to lead to any significant pop...just
an increase in clouds. A slow warmup may be in store early next week
but the models are keeping a stubborn surface ridge axis over the
state not allowing for deeper southerly flow until beyond the 7 day
forecast period.

[Haris]

Really nice steady hard rain right now. Loving the sounds of the drops hitting the roof.

Personally, I'm so over the rain. My yard hasn't dried out for more than a day in months and now the grass is starting to get long, but I can't cut it because it's wet. It takes a few days to dry so not to ruin the mower, and then it rains again. I need about 2 weeks of dry cloudless sunny days.

Ummm no thank you. We are on the verge of drought down here, at least. The wetter the spring, the better chance for a slightly cooler summer.

[Brent]

This wind is pretty decent already just heard some loud noise in the backyard

[bubba hotep]

This wind is pretty decent already just heard some loud noise in the backyard

Was just coming to post that, sounds like it's kicking out there. It looks like we could see some 70+ mph gust with the line of storms later.

[Brent]

Already gusts to 44 mph at DFW

This aint even the peak yet

[TheProfessor]

We had some 64 mph gusts a few weeks ago here, it can definitely sound scary, especially when you have headphones on and still hear the wind.

[Haris]

HRRR not initializing the current storms well. 3K doing a good job. I'd use that over HRRR ATM IMO

[Cerlin]

Sweet sound of thunder!!!

[EnnisTx]

Sirens going off in Arlington. I had a gust of 76 mph.
DFW reports a gust to 78 mph.