STORM2K

IceResistance - respectfully your posts read like this, 'it probably will, but when who knows?'

Patriot12 wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Its not just you. I agree with you.

It will eventually pan out, last time it was really panned out was in 2013, but the question is when it will pan out again?

Huh?

I meant there is a cycle, years with nasty outbreaks (We REALLY DON'T WANT those) are followed with years where there are not much & back again.

Iceresistance wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

Weather Dude wrote:It's panned out many times since 2013

Ehhh, I beg to differ. Seen many enhanced and moderate risks bust lately. When I think of tornado outbreaks I think of at least 50+ tornadoes with a few EF3’s or bigger. How many of those have there been lately? Probably a few that I might not remember but it sure seems to me severe weather has been on a decline lately.

It has probably cycled downward, it's going to ramp back up again, but when is the question

Winter became generally milder after 2010-2011 Winter, but after that, I knew that Winter was going to wake up soon, but when was the question. The 2020-2021 Winter showed that pattern.

It depends where you’re looking I guess. Outside of 2019 I can’t think of any widespread tornado outbreaks for Oklahoma since 2013 (sulphur/wynnewood or 5/6/15 maybe?)

Here in Dallas, the only significant tornado events I can remember have actually occurred in the last 10 years (apr 3 2012, dec 26, 2015, and oct 20, 2019). Hell, all 4 tornadoes I’ve ever seen occurred in the last 2 years.

Patriot12 wrote:IceResistance - respectfully your posts read like this, 'it probably will, but when who knows?'

Thanks, I've read it wrong, that's my fault here.

I do remember there are active years (2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2019, & 2021 (For Dixie Alley)) And Lull Years (2014, 2016, 2018, 2020) in a somewhat repeating pattern.

There is some truth to the downward trend, at least compared to the decade prior. Before 2011 we were consistently near or above the mean in term of tornado reports (the adjusted tornado counts follow this trend as well). After 2011 you had a few years that went above but then a few after that is well below, and the below were very below relative to past decades.

2013 was the quietest but as you can see in Oklahoma that year, overall numbers doesn't mean you can't have a major localized outbreak at any given time. It depends on where you live and if you are unlucky in the wrong spot. However there has been a weakened trend with count since the big 2011 year.

Flash Flood Watch for DFW



And lots of rain coming to Texas

Euro oddly backed off a bit for N TX but other models solid. Expect at least 2 inches, which is going to feel like a massive flood. Some folks will likely get a lot more.

Ntxw wrote:There is some truth to the downward trend, at least compared to the decade prior. Before 2011 we were consistently near or above the mean in term of tornado reports (the adjusted tornado counts follow this trend as well). After 2011 you had a few years that went above but then a few after that is well below, and the below were very below relative to past decades.

2013 was the quietest but as you can see in Oklahoma that year, overall numbers doesn't mean you can't have a major localized outbreak at any given time. It depends on where you live and if you are unlucky in the wrong spot. However there has been a weakened trend with count since the big 2011 year.

https://i.imgur.com/ZHaTnbq.png

Ok, I knew I wasn’t trippin lol glad to see my thoughts backed up!

After a wet week we appear to be in for an incredible weekend with highs near 70.and lows in the 40s.

Ralph's Weather wrote:After a wet week we appear to be in for an incredible weekend with highs near 70.and lows in the 40s.

Yeah for real I've already been telling some people about it when I was out earlier it's gonna be something

12z HRRR and 3K NAM are dropping some big totals across N. Texas for this event.

Latest HRRR showing 4-6+" across DFW!

bubba hotep wrote:Latest HRRR showing 4-6+" across DFW!

https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2021101314/018/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

So much for the 'DFW dry slot'

aggiecutter wrote:[url]https://i.ibb.co/cChVcBv/Weather.png [/url]
empower illinois

Yea, there has been a lot of preseason chatter about conditions looking favorable for strat warmings and a weak PV this winter.

Massive forecast bust for the eastern areas of DFW. High was forecast at 83 with 80% of heavy rain. Not a drop of rain and almost 90 outside...

Models have also cut back on totals as the boundary hasn't made any progress SE and all the rain is staying to the NW side of the boundary.

bubba hotep wrote:Massive forecast bust for the eastern areas of DFW. High was forecast at 83 with 80% of heavy rain. Not a drop of rain and almost 90 outside...

Models have also cut back on totals as the boundary hasn't made any progress SE and all the rain is staying to the NW side of the boundary.

Yep. Getting whiffs of bust city. Locals are still calling for a good amount, although the window is closing on both ends IMO. Another rain bust holy crapolla. Frustrating as hell.

Channel 5 is out there on flood patrol on dry streets. Gimmie a freaking break. Ok, some rain will fall but come on man!!!!

Yesterday NWS said it might happen but was unlikely.

Well, it’s happening probably.

Ugh.

Ridiculous how bad models can miss things still.

Northwest of DFW cashed in last time, too.

SE Oklahoma is being drenched right now! And more rain coming my way as well! I've recorded 1.2 inches from this morning's storms

And it appears that the Trough has slowed down, it's maximizing the Tropical Moisture Potential from Pamela