STORM2K

At least there is this from the CPC


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Mid-October-Heavy-Rainfall-risk.png

There are still differences across the models but they are pointing to a pretty good rain setup for Texas. A big cutoff low to our West and a wide open Gulf and EPAC. We could see some big totals and widespread coverage.

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1577666511145238528

Edwards Limestone wrote:https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1577666511145238528?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

https://www.weather.gov/images/ewx/products/climate/climate_KSAT_2022.png

Don't worry, things are about to change for the better, just wait several days.

bubba hotep wrote:https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeWXdBuWAAIMl6H?format=jpg&name=medium

weatherdude1108 wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeWXdBuWAAIMl6H?format=jpg&name=medium

I don’t really see it yet on the models but that’s a good sign for sure. Hopefully it’ll start popping up on the models soon.

And speaking of models, the HGX Pro Met, Batiste is a funny guy..

Global models are still pointing towards a deeper upper level trough
digging down into the Northwestern CONUS mid next week that could be
the source of a stronger cold front towards the end of the week.
Uncertainty still remains with it being more than a week out, but
I choose to be hopeful! NBM temperature trends have been downward
after Thursday for the past few days. If I was doing a Lee Corso
style headgear pick for this, I`d have a cold front on my head...
#TeamFROPA

Batiste

Tireman4 wrote:And speaking of models, the HGX Pro Met, Batiste is a funny guy..

Global models are still pointing towards a deeper upper level trough
digging down into the Northwestern CONUS mid next week that could be
the source of a stronger cold front towards the end of the week.
Uncertainty still remains with it being more than a week out, but
I choose to be hopeful! NBM temperature trends have been downward
after Thursday for the past few days. [b]If I was doing a Lee Corso
style headgear pick for this, I`d have a cold front on my head...
#TeamFROPA[/b]

Batiste

If you look at 500mb charts currently there is a cutoff low/trof in the southwest and digging tof in the E-Central US. Typical patterns as such other years in October would yield chances for rain and much cooler temperatures. But currently that is not the case at the surface.

Ensembles show a change in the North Pacific medium to long term. I'm more optimistic on 'cooler' fronts, meaning a shot of air that is more than getting to normals. SOI + streak has passed 40 days since the last negative reading.

This is currently my longest rain-free period since 2011. We need rain very badly.

DFW too is going through second stretch of such anomalous dry spell.



Tidbit...outside of 2015 and 1999 the following winters were pretty chilly on this list.

Ntxw wrote:DFW too is going through second stretch of such anomalous dry spell.

https://i.imgur.com/z7u2Bux.png

Tidbit...outside of 2015 and 1999 the following winters were pretty chilly on this list.

That chart is very surprising to me. Seems like Texas goes months without rain all the time. I'm in West Texas, so my perspective is probably just skewed (we went almost a year without rain in 2010/2011).

Ntxw wrote:If you look at 500mb charts currently there is a cutoff low/trof in the southwest and digging tof in the E-Central US. Typical patterns as such other years in October would yield chances for rain and much cooler temperatures. But currently that is not the case at the surface.

Ensembles show a change in the North Pacific medium to long term. I'm more optimistic on 'cooler' fronts, meaning a shot of air that is more than getting to normals. SOI + streak has passed 40 days since the last negative reading.

I’ve been wondering about the prospect of southern plains severe weather later this season. Not anytime soon, obviously, but given that…
- the western gulf has remained warm and untapped by TCs (source of moisture/instability)
- NM and AZ saw drought improvement a month or so ago (more limited CIN)
- the southern plains are expected to have normal/above normal temps for the foreseeable future, in contrast with expected colder than normal conditions in the northern US
…it seems like some of the ingredients are there once troughs start digging deeper as we get into fall. Any thoughts?

lukem wrote:

Ntxw wrote:DFW too is going through second stretch of such anomalous dry spell.

https://i.imgur.com/z7u2Bux.png

Tidbit...outside of 2015 and 1999 the following winters were pretty chilly on this list.

That chart is very surprising to me. Seems like Texas goes months without rain all the time. I'm in West Texas, so my perspective is probably just skewed (we went almost a year without rain in 2010/2011).

Western half of Texas is arid so yes it is common. But the eastern half no, subtropical climate closer to the southeast than desert southwest. Hot and dry is common but there is always some storms or infrequent rains to cut into the stretches typically even during the hot stretches.

cheezyWXguy wrote:

Ntxw wrote:If you look at 500mb charts currently there is a cutoff low/trof in the southwest and digging tof in the E-Central US. Typical patterns as such other years in October would yield chances for rain and much cooler temperatures. But currently that is not the case at the surface.

Ensembles show a change in the North Pacific medium to long term. I'm more optimistic on 'cooler' fronts, meaning a shot of air that is more than getting to normals. SOI + streak has passed 40 days since the last negative reading.

I’ve been wondering about the prospect of southern plains severe weather later this season. Not anytime soon, obviously, but given that…
- the western gulf has remained warm and untapped by TCs (source of moisture/instability)
- NM and AZ saw drought improvement a month or so ago (more limited CIN)
- the southern plains are expected to have normal/above normal temps for the foreseeable future, in contrast with expected colder than normal conditions in the northern US
…it seems like some of the ingredients are there once troughs start digging deeper as we get into fall. Any thoughts?

Admittedly severe weather is a learning curve for me. Trough configuration you'd think provide the parameters for severe weather. But to get it still has to rain, need some kind of moisture influx. What it can allow is a wider window deep into fall due to the warmth, but something has to take advantage of it.

Ntxw wrote:

lukem wrote:

Ntxw wrote:DFW too is going through second stretch of such anomalous dry spell.

https://i.imgur.com/z7u2Bux.png

Tidbit...outside of 2015 and 1999 the following winters were pretty chilly on this list.

That chart is very surprising to me. Seems like Texas goes months without rain all the time. I'm in West Texas, so my perspective is probably just skewed (we went almost a year without rain in 2010/2011).

Western half of Texas is arid so yes it is common. But the eastern half no, subtropical climate closer to the southeast than desert southwest. Hot and dry is common but there is always some storms or infrequent rains to cut into the stretches typically even during the hot stretches.

September 7th was the last time it rained at my place. Seems like longer.

weatherdude1108 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:

lukem wrote:
That chart is very surprising to me. Seems like Texas goes months without rain all the time. I'm in West Texas, so my perspective is probably just skewed (we went almost a year without rain in 2010/2011).

Western half of Texas is arid so yes it is common. But the eastern half no, subtropical climate closer to the southeast than desert southwest. Hot and dry is common but there is always some storms or infrequent rains to cut into the stretches typically even during the hot stretches.

September 7th was the last time it rained at my place. Seems like longer.

My last substantial rainfall was September 7th as well.

And just like that, the heavy rainfall risk for the Southern Plains is gone. This is getting extremely old, stupid Cockroach Death Ridge!

Iceresistance wrote:And just like that, the heavy rainfall risk for the Southern Plains is gone. This is getting extremely old, stupid Cockroach Death Ridge!

How is it gone?