Texas Spring 2025

[wxman22]

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
On Thursday, a trough at mid-levels will move eastward into the
Appalachians, as a cold front advances quickly eastward across the
Atlantic Coastal states. Isolated strong gusts may occur with
convection that develops along or ahead of the front. The threat is
expected to be marginal.

On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to quickly
move from the High Plains to the East Coast. A moist airmmass in the
Gulf Coast region is forecast to remain largely in place as the
system passes to the north. This will likely limit any severe
potential.

...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
From Saturday night into Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to
increase considerably over the southern Plains, as a mid-level
trough moves quickly southeastward across the central U.S.
Medium-range models suggest that the northern edge of the moist
airmass will be located from the Red River Valley eastward into the
lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm
development will be possible along this east-to-west corridor during
the late afternoon and evening, where the models suggest that
moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place.
Model spread appears low enough to add a 15 percent area, centered
on the Ark-La-Tex for Sunday.

[Portastorm]

Fortunately firefighters overnight made some real progress with the ongoing fire near Fredericksburg. 0 to 40% contained. Hopefully that continues before winds begin to pickup again tomorrow. Some smoke has impacted both the Austin & SA metros as winds shift back and forth from the W during the day to N at night.

Unfortunately Texas is no stranger to wildfires and dry conditions especially coming out if winter and of course into the summer. The droughts across SC TX can be brutal but patterns of course do and will change eventually and often we break out of these with a flooding event. No question the drought we've been under though for months is significant and vegetation is extremely dry prone to high fire danger. There are some signs that the last few days of March into April could introduce the prospect of at least some rain chances but not confident yet. Fingers crossed.

Unfortunately I don't see anything in the next two weeks that resembles any relief (i.e. measurable rainfall) for south central Texas. As these upper level systems chug west to east, to our north, they'll just mean windy conditions either out of the south or west ... low dew points ... and more Red Flag Warning days ahead. I feel like we've been very fortunate to not see more wildfires given how dry things are around here and the weather conditions. I hope our luck holds.

[snownado]

Fortunately firefighters overnight made some real progress with the ongoing fire near Fredericksburg. 0 to 40% contained. Hopefully that continues before winds begin to pickup again tomorrow. Some smoke has impacted both the Austin & SA metros as winds shift back and forth from the W during the day to N at night.

Unfortunately Texas is no stranger to wildfires and dry conditions especially coming out if winter and of course into the summer. The droughts across SC TX can be brutal but patterns of course do and will change eventually and often we break out of these with a flooding event. No question the drought we've been under though for months is significant and vegetation is extremely dry prone to high fire danger. There are some signs that the last few days of March into April could introduce the prospect of at least some rain chances but not confident yet. Fingers crossed.

Unfortunately I don't see anything in the next two weeks that resembles any relief (i.e. measurable rainfall) for south central Texas. As these upper level systems chug west to east, to our north, they'll just mean windy conditions either out of the south or west ... low dew points ... and more Red Flag Warning days ahead. I feel like we've been very fortunate to not see more wildfires given how dry things are around here and the weather conditions. I hope our luck holds.

Part of the reason why there haven't been more wildfires is because we're still a few weeks away from all the trees being leafed out.

[Ntxw]

Through mid March DFW is +5.4F above average.

Mabry +5.8F
IAH +4.1F
OKC +4.5F

So most is running 4-5F degrees warmer than normal. All dry and below normal qpf.

Also ECMWF will be all open data by Fall. All data should be available (ahead of schedule and the high resolution material) and we will benefit gradually most likely as sites should in theory provide more of the paid stuff for free. This with their upgraded AI implementation will likely lead the pack in terms of the plethora of information. Good news all around for everyone. Whether you're a fan of the Euro or not (think most will use it as the first bar for which the others will verify to) it's definitely on the leading edge of dynamic model forecasting.

Snippet

"ECMWF is bringing forward the full transition to open data by an entire year, to 1 October 2025, marking a significant milestone in its commitment to making weather data more accessible and impactful.

The change means that the entire ECMWF Real-time Catalogue will be fully available under a CC-BY-4.0 licence at the maximum resolution, removing the Information Cost (data cost) for all users.

Data produced by the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) will then all be open at their full native resolution with no data cost, further expanding access to high-quality numerical weather prediction products..."

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2025/ecmwf-achieve-fully-open-data-status-2025

GRAF is a growing sector of high power computing to model weather using some of the best technology (Nvidia and IBM in tandem with the weather company..channel) is the other development I see that maybe can take on the ECMWF. But this is early in stages. More is better! Hopefully leaps and bounds with this upcoming potential.

[Brent]

More fires today

This is my 5th spring here in Tulsa and this is definitely the most fires I've seen

[CaptinCrunch]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
518 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-181930-
/O.CON.KFWD.WI.Y.0005.250318T1500Z-250319T0300Z/
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-
Navarro-Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-
Limestone-Leon-Milam-Robertson-
518 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.

* WHERE...All of North and Central Texas.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Unsecured outdoor items may be blown around in the wind.
Driving on area roadways may become difficult, especially for
high-profile vehicles. Small tree limbs could break and cause
damage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of at least 20 to 30 mph
are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult,
especially for high profile vehicles. Boaters should use extra
caution when venturing onto area lakes. Residents may wish to take
action to secure trash cans, lawn furniture, and other lightweight
outdoor objects that may be blown around in the strong winds.

[Brent]

There are places in Kansas at 85 degrees with a blizzard warning in the morning

[txtwister78]

CPC 8-14 Day outlook offering up some optimism for above normal precip for SC TX points south. Last few runs of the GFS operational has also looked a bit more promising around that timeframe so at least it's something to watch over the next few days to see if that becomes a trend with other guidance

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Just had a batch of thunder graupel pass through my place!

[snownado]

We're now in that time of year where heat ridges are showing up in the GFS fantasy range..

[gpsnowman]

Just had a batch of thunder graupel pass through my place!

That's pretty cool. I tend to forget it is still winter in some parts of the country.

[Brent]

Nothing like the smell of a wildfire at 6am make it stop

[snownado]

With this current storrm, Omaha has seen the most Blizzard Warnings to ever start a year (3).

And there's only been 1 other year (2018) where they saw 4.

It's wild too considering Omaha was well on track for futility through the first 2/3rds of winter...

[Ntxw]

This has got to be the dustiest spring I've ever experienced here. Maybe we should start tracking dust accumulations instead of rainfall qpf..

[CaptinCrunch]

This has got to be the dustiest spring I've ever experienced here. Maybe we should start tracking dust accumulations instead of rainfall qpf..

With climate change we probably will at some point

[Brent]

I guess the 1930s have returned I mean the last few summers have been awful as it was it's just hopeless now

[txtwister78]

Models continue to slowly come together with increasing chances for at least some rain in the medium/long range across SC TX into the LRGV. CPC boosting odds slightly as well in today's 6-10 outlook. Still several days out but as mentioned a few days ago, at least it's something.

More dust and wind than I can remember for a March across SC TX in quite some time. Definitely getting old.

[Cpv17]

Models continue to slowly come together with increasing chances for at least some rain in the medium/long range across SC TX into the LRGV. CPC boosting odds slightly as well in today's 6-10 outlook. Still several days out but as mentioned a few days ago, at least it's something.

More dust and wind than I can remember for a March across SC TX in quite some time. Definitely getting old.

That wind and dust is highly annoying. So glad I don’t live in west Texas or the Panhandle.

[snownado]

Although the daylight hours were spent in the low/mid 60s, in the record books, today's high at DFW will officially be 71*F (which was set at 3:41am).

[Yukon Cornelius]

Made it down to 31 this morning.