Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

The track is not towards Eastern Caribbean but we cant move our eyes away just in case.

[Gustywind]

Numerous isolated tstorms are doting my area. Lightnings are pretty present, and the thunder is rumbling nicely for 20 minutes. It's raining too. Things are just trying to improve.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041847
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST WED NOV 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS WILL REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY NORTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES
WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN BASIN TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARD WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE FEW HOURS
AFFECTING THE MAYAGUEZ METROPOLITAN AREA. A CU LINE THAT DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL SPREAD WEST AND AFFECT THE
EASTERN PORTION OF PR INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
ON THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE WILL
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TJSJ VICINITY
THROUGH ABOUT 04/2200Z IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.
ALSO BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 04/2002Z IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES AFTER 04/2200Z THIS
EVENING. ANY VOLCANIC ASH OR STEAM FROM MONTSERRAT SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TONIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND. A NORTHERN SWELL WILL REACH OUR
LOCAL WATERS BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC089-119-050030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0055.091104T2137Z-091105T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 PM AST WED NOV 4 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
LUQUILLO
RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 830 PM AST

* AT 534 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR HAS SHOWN
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF EL YUNQUE IN THE
WARNED AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE MANY LOCAL STREAMS TO FLOOD. THE RIO
ESPIRITU SANTO WAS RISING RAPIDLY AND IS EXPECTED TO GO INTO FLOOD
BEFORE 6 PM AST. FLOOD STAGE ON THE RIO ESPIRITU SANTO IS 9 FEET.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST THU NOV 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER PUERTO
RICO THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO
MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY...WILL AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. WILL ALSO
LIKELY SEE A FEW STREAMERS FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT OFF THE
WESTERN EDGES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS LATER IN THE DAY...WHICH MAY
BRING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE EASTERN FRINGES OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL. A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...ASSOCIATED
WITH DECREASING PW VALUES AND RIDGING IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL HELP TO LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EVEN SO...EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR OF PR...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

LATEST COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
FLORIDA...ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE
SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WHILE A BRIEF INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
BE OBSERVED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY...MAIN EFFECT WILL
BE THE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE TRAILING DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THESE SWELLS MAY ONCE AGAIN WARRANT ANOTHER
HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TJSJ VICINITY
THROUGH ABOUT 05/13Z IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHILE OVER PARTS OF THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH ABOUT
05/12Z IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THEN...EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 05/17Z THROUGH ABOUT
05/22Z IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VOLCANIC ASH
AND STEAM FROM MONTSERRAT SHOULD STILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES TODAY.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 050900
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST THU NOV 5 2009

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED...MAINLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THE WIND WAS MAINLY EAST AT 10
MPH OR LESS.

THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
JUST OFF OF THE WEST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT
AROUND 15 MPH OR LESS.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TODAY...TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 13
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051156
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST THU NOV 5 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUED ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED HURRICANE IDA...LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE IDA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051836
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST THU NOV 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. ON LATE SUNDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REACH OUR LOCAL REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED OVER THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. THESE SHOWERS
PRODUCED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1 INCH. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AT AROUND SUNSET.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS WITH A FEW AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION THROUGH
THE INCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT THE MOST OF THESE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ISLANDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST...REACHING OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TJSJ VICINITY
THROUGH ABOUT 04/2200Z IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.
ALSO BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 04/2002Z IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO. EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES AFTER 04/2200Z THIS EVENING. ANY VOLCANIC ASH
OR STEAM FROM MONTSERRAT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET AND WINDS AT AROUND 12 KNOTS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A
NORTHERLY SWELL TO REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY. ALSO
MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGIONAL WATERS.

[msbee]

hi everyone
very cloudy and gray here. strange weather. its very humid but no rain.
and there is almost no wind.
current weather at the airport met office is 82 degrees, mostl cloudy and wind from the ESE (110 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 KT)
I don't even have 9 MPH winds at my house on the other side of the island.
it is perfectly still here.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
410 AM AST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE ERN
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A SFC CDFNT WILL STALL JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUN WHILE AT MID AND UPPER LVLS A POLAR
TROUGH IS FCST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGING AND MID
LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE BUILDING ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER LVL TROF AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE TODAY WITH LESS AFTERNOON CONVECTION
THAT IN THE PAST TWO DAYS. THIS DRYING TREND SHOULD LAST THROUGH SAT.

A MORE COMPLICATED AND INTERESTING PATTERN IS FCST BY THE MODELS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AT THE SFC...A CDFNT IS FCST TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA ON SUN WHILE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS MODELS/ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN
A SHARP MID UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFLYING ACROSS THE ATLC INTO
THE ERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...SIG DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN WITH RESPECT
TO AMPLITUDE AND LOCATION OF TROF AXIS WITH 00Z ECWMF SHOWING A
CUTOFF LOW EVOLVING NEAR HISPANIOLA AND THE OPS GFS AND GFES
SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW AND OPEN TROUGH RESPECTIVELY DEVELOPING
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY HERE GIVEN LARGE
DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL GUIDANCE BUT ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD PRODUCER. AGAIN...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
HERE TO BE CERTAIN OF ANYTHING.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 061510
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1110 AM AST FRI NOV 6 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE SURROUNDING WATERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT LIMITED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS LAND
AREAS. THE WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10 MPH.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS TO INDUCE SHOWERS IN THE FLOW
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE ISLANDS. CLOUDINESS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY. MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

$$

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 061556
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1156 AM AST FRI NOV 6 2009

.UPDATE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z. AFTER
18Z MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINALS OF TJBQ AND TJMZ THROUGH 24Z
DUE TO AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
237 PM AST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SEABOARD WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A POLAR TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
EARLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FA THIS EVENING THROUGH THE MOST PART OF SUNDAY AS A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THUS...
ONLY THE TYPICAL NOVEMBER SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NIGHTS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...A NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL OCCUR
VERY SOON AS LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS EARLY SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MORNING. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS LATER IN THE WEEK. IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFY...A WET WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE FA...BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND LASTING
UNTIL AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. A NEW SWELL EVENT FROM THE
NORTH WILL ALSO REACH OUR COASTLINES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SCA
CRITERIA AND HIGH SURF CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER
THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAINS
OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TJMZ...TJBQ AND POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJPS UNTIL 06/22Z. AFTER 06/22Z...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF
SITES. VOLCANIC ASH AND STEAM FROM MONTSERRAT SHOULD STILL REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AS THE NEXT SWELL EVENT REACH THE EXPOSDED ATLANTIC WATERS SUN
NIGHT WITH SCA CRITERIA AND HIGH SURF CONDITIONS LIKELY.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
432 AM AST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK CDFNT WILL STALL NORTH OF 20N ON SUN AND DISSIPATE
BY WED. AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A POLAR TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN WITH A CUTOFF LOW FCST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. A STRONGER CDFNT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD MID-UPPER LVL RIDGING
FROM A 200 MB ANTICYCLONE THAT ANCHORS NORTH OF COLOMBIA. MODEST
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WITH ACTIVITY CONCENTRATING ACROSS SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON SUN AS POLAR TROUGH DEEPENS NORTH OF THE
REGION. A SFC CDFNT IS FCST TO STALL NORTH OF 20N BUT MODELS SHOW
A FRONTAL SHEARLINE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MON WITH
MODELS INDICATING A SURGE IN PWAT VALUES AND K INDICES. STRONG
UPSLOPE COMPONENT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSING ON THE EASTERN HALF/NORTHERN SLOPES. STRONG
OROGRAPHIC FORCING...HIGH PW AIR AND LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING ECHOES
WILL SUPPORT TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH
FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

FCST BEYOND MON BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS 00Z ECMWF AND GFS/GFES
STILL SHOW SIG DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO EVOLUTION OF CUTOFF LOW.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE VERY OMINOUS FOR PR/USVI AS IT SHOWS CUTOFF
LOW SETTLELING NW OF PR WITH AREA BECOMING UNDER A HIGHLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. EURO SOLUTION EVEN SHOWS WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE
A WEAK TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH A VERY SHARP TROUGH ACROSS PR/USVI WHICH WOULD HELP
FOCUS DEEP CONVECTION FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. DEFINITELY LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY HERE ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FEATURES AND
DETAILS GIVEN THAT WE ARE GOING TO BE DEALING WITH A SYSTEM CUTOFF
FROM THE FLOW.

TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...CUTOFF LOW THEN LOOKS TO BECOME
ABSORBED BY A NEW POLAR TROUGH EXITING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PUSHING A DECENT CDFNT THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRI WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT WE ARE IN STORE FOR A VERY WET PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...NEW SWELL EVENT EXPECTED SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH SCA
AND HIGH SURF CONDITIONS LIKELY.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 070906
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST SAT NOV 7 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE WIND WAS MAINLY EAST
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ISLANDS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY THE LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH...WHILE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. EXPECT
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER EPISODES AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT MUCH
OF THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 17
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.












ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 17
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 071837
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
237 PM AST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES SEABOARD WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. AT THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS...A POLAR TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS
GENERATED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1 INCH...MAINLY OVER
THE MUNICIPALITIES OF PONCE AND VILLALBA. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AT AROUND SUNSET A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW LOCATED EAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. IS FORECAST
TO REACH OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE SHOWER AND CLOUD
COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INTERACT
WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND INDUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAINS
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJMZ UNTIL 07/22Z. AFTER
07/22Z...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES. VOLCANIC ASH AND STEAM FROM
MONTSERRAT SHOULD STILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH THE
TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FRONT RUNNERS SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO REACH OUR OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS. MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 KNOTS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. ALSO SWELLS OF
BETWEEN 6 TO 8 FEET WILL START TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS ON EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS SWELL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK ON
TUESDAY MORNING...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.It looks like a wet week for the NE Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
440 AM AST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH A
SHEARLINE FCST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
POLAR TROUGH TO AMPLIFY NEXT 24 HRS ACROSS THE ATLC INTO THE ERN
CARIBBEAN WITH A CUTOFF LOW FCST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES NEXT 24 HRS
AS SHEARLINE MOVES ACROSS. NERLY WINDS WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER
THE NORTHERN SLOPES AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY MON AS THERE WILL BE TRAINING OF
CONVECTION AND MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 2.0
INCHES AND K INDICES NEAR 35. SINCE MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
NOT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL MON I PREFER TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT WITH 00Z ECWMF TRENDING A LITTLE MORE
TOWARD THE GFS INDICATING TROF AXIS ACROSS WRN PR WHILE THE GFS
TO THE EAST OF THE USVI. THIS LESSENS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN/FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PR BUT STILL REMAINS HIGH FOR THE
USVI. MODELS NOW CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING A WEAK
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE MID WEEK NORTH OF 22N. A LINGERING
TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH DEEP MOISTURE JUST TO
OUR EAST SO THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE HIGH ALL WEEK FOR
THE USVI.

MODELS BRING A CDFNT CLOSE TO OUR AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH MAINLY MARINE CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH VCSH AT JBQ/JMZ. MVFR CIGS WITH
NMRS SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS USVI/JSJ AND JBQ AIRPORTS AS SHEARLINE
MOVES ACROSS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS FCST TO BUILD TO 7 FT LATE TODAY ACROSS AMZ710 AND
PEAK TO AROUND 9 FT TUE IN NNE SWELLS. NRLY SWELLS OF 6 FT AT 10
SECS WILL BE ARRIVING INTO OUR LOCAL ATLC WATERS TONIGHT LIKELY
PRODUCING BREAKERS OF AROUND 10 FT. SINCE THIS IS STILL A SECOND
PERIOD EVENT WILL HOLD OFF ON HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT ONE
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THU. MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS LATE TODAY AND
REMAIN UNSAFE THROUGH THU MUCH OF THE WEEK ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE
ATLC WATERS.

ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND
WITH GLOBAL ENSEMBLE WAVEWATCH INDICATING HIGH PROBABILITIES OF
EXCEEDING 3-METER SEAS AT 13 SECS. OPERATIONAL WAVEWATCH AND WNA
MODELS MORE BULLISH INDICATING 4-METER WAVES AT 15 SECS BUT MODEL
OUTPUT THIS FAR OUT IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS BUT DEFINITELY AN
EVENT TO MONITOR MORE CLOSELY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

[Gustywind]

Good morning to all.It looks like a wet week for the NE Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
440 AM AST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH A
SHEARLINE FCST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
POLAR TROUGH TO AMPLIFY NEXT 24 HRS ACROSS THE ATLC INTO THE ERN
CARIBBEAN WITH A CUTOFF LOW FCST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES NEXT 24 HRS
AS SHEARLINE MOVES ACROSS. NERLY WINDS WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER
THE NORTHERN SLOPES AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY MON AS THERE WILL BE TRAINING OF
CONVECTION AND MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 2.0
INCHES AND K INDICES NEAR 35. SINCE MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
NOT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL MON I PREFER TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT WITH 00Z ECWMF TRENDING A LITTLE MORE
TOWARD THE GFS INDICATING TROF AXIS ACROSS WRN PR WHILE THE GFS
TO THE EAST OF THE USVI. THIS LESSENS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN/FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PR BUT STILL REMAINS HIGH FOR THE
USVI. MODELS NOW CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING A WEAK
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE MID WEEK NORTH OF 22N. A LINGERING
TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH DEEP MOISTURE JUST TO
OUR EAST SO THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE HIGH ALL WEEK FOR
THE USVI.

MODELS BRING A CDFNT CLOSE TO OUR AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH MAINLY MARINE CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH VCSH AT JBQ/JMZ. MVFR CIGS WITH
NMRS SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS USVI/JSJ AND JBQ AIRPORTS AS SHEARLINE
MOVES ACROSS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS FCST TO BUILD TO 7 FT LATE TODAY ACROSS AMZ710 AND
PEAK TO AROUND 9 FT TUE IN NNE SWELLS. NRLY SWELLS OF 6 FT AT 10
SECS WILL BE ARRIVING INTO OUR LOCAL ATLC WATERS TONIGHT LIKELY
PRODUCING BREAKERS OF AROUND 10 FT. SINCE THIS IS STILL A SECOND
PERIOD EVENT WILL HOLD OFF ON HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT ONE
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THU. MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS LATE TODAY AND
REMAIN UNSAFE THROUGH THU MUCH OF THE WEEK ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE
ATLC WATERS.

ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND
WITH GLOBAL ENSEMBLE WAVEWATCH INDICATING HIGH PROBABILITIES OF
EXCEEDING 3-METER SEAS AT 13 SECS. OPERATIONAL WAVEWATCH AND WNA
MODELS MORE BULLISH INDICATING 4-METER WAVES AT 15 SECS BUT MODEL
OUTPUT THIS FAR OUT IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS BUT DEFINITELY AN
EVENT TO MONITOR MORE CLOSELY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

Absolutely Cycloneye, conditionsshould deteriorate steadily today in Guadeloupe given our ProMets of Meteo-France.
They expect a perturbed weather with numerous showers and isolated tstorms beginning this afternon but especially tommorow and Tuesday. Let's wait and see.