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Gustywind
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#2941 Postby Gustywind » Sun Nov 08, 2009 6:57 am

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#2942 Postby Gustywind » Sun Nov 08, 2009 6:57 am

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 080958
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST SUN NOV 8 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED PASSING
SHOWERS WERE DETECTED BY DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR...MAINLY AFFECTING
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE WINDS WERE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

A NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL OCCUR IN THE PRESENT WEATHER CONDITIONS
LATE THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHILE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. EXPECT
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER EPISODES AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT MUCH
OF THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY. MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS LARGE NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL BEGIN
TO IMPACT THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY FOR THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

$$
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#2943 Postby Gustywind » Sun Nov 08, 2009 6:58 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081143
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IDA...LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

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#2944 Postby Gustywind » Sun Nov 08, 2009 6:59 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 081146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 20.8N 85.7W AT 08/1200 UTC OR
ABOUT 60 NM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 NM SSW OF THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80
KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60/75 NM RADIUS OF 20N86W
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 80W-86W AND CLUSTERS
OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN 77W-88W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
HAS MOVED W OF THE BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BUT SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THE CURVATURE
OF THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 40W-48W
AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ON THE W SIDE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
CONTINUES MOVING BENEATH DRY UPPER LEVEL NLY FLOW THAT COVERS
THE E CARIBBEAN AND THUS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 7N20W 9N44W 8N55W 10N62W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 11W-16W INCLUDING THE COAST OF W AFRICA...
FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 36W-44W...AND FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 29W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS IDA MOVES TOWARD
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE SE GULF WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM A 1025 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER W TO
CENTRAL TEXAS COVERING THE N GULF N OF 26N. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SURFACE RIDGE AND HURRICANE IDA IS
PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SE GULF INCLUDING THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...SEE MIAHSFAT2. A SURFACE TROUGH AT 08/0900
UTC IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM S MEXICO NEAR 18N932W
THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 21N95W TO 25N96W. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH/LOW ARE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 26N96W TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N92W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW COUPLED WITH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ARE GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-29N W OF 88W TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF
THE W GULF W OF 87W. MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE IDA IS BEING
ADVECTED NE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS CUBA OVER THE
SE GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N E OF 87W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE
IDA AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS
MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS W CUBA
INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
LEVEL HIGH ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N81W.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND
PANAMA BETWEEN 74W-81W. E OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS RELATIVELY
DRY AND STABLE AIR WITH NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATING THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 74W WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING
SHOWERS BEING USHERED IN ON MODERATE/STRONG ELY TRADEWINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTROLS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 60W ANCHORED
BY A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS WITH A 1025 MB HIGH INLAND OVER THE
SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER AND 1027 MB HIGH NW OF BERMUDA
WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND A SECOND 1027 MB HIGH OFF
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. FARTHER E IS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE REGION NEAR 32N47W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 26N54W TO 24N64W
THEN BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH TO 23N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM OVER THE
BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
COMPLIMENTS OF HURRICANE IDA. THE E ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST NE
OF THE AZORES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING AN AXIS THROUGH 32N34W INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 12N54W
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N45W TO 21N45W
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 39W AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AFRICA ALONG 11N
TO 43W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS ABOVE AND
ALONG THE W EXTENT OF THE ABOVE RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W/47W.

$$
WALLACE
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Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#2945 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 08, 2009 9:24 am

Barbara,hopefully you get plenty of rain this week to aliviate the drought there.But of course not in excess.
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Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#2946 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 08, 2009 12:14 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1125 AM AST SUN NOV 8 2009

.UPDATE...AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS OBSERVED LATE IN
THE MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL
INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL OCCUR VERY SOON
AS LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON
MONDAY. THE EXPECTED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SLOPES AND THE EASTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO. EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER EPISODES AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE ISLAND AND COASTAL WATERS
MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL
REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE REGION THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK. IF
THIS SCENARIO VERIFY...A WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE
FA...BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING UNTIL AT LEAST LATE
WEDNESDAY. A NEW SWELL EVENT FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST WILL ALSO
REACH OUR COASTLINES BY LATE TONIGHT WITH SCA CRITERIA AND HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES STARTING THIS EVENING./JFR

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Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#2947 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 08, 2009 2:16 pm


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A SHEARLINE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. POLAR TROUGH TO AMPLIFY NEXT 24 HRS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A CUTOFF LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. THESE SHOWERS HAVE GENERATED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SIMILAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER THESE
AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES ARE SHOWING THE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDER TOMS ASSOCIATED TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW LOCATED
NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TONIGHT. THESE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AT AROUND MIDNIGHT. EXPECT RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST
AND AFFECT THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CREATE A DAMMING EFFECT AT THE
RIVER MOUTHS...THIS COULD AFFECT THE NORMAL RIVER FLOW...INCREASING
RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAINS
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ UNTIL AT LEAST
08/22Z. BANDS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL MOVE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS...INDUCING PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS TIST...TISX...TJSJ AND TJBQ THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE
MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL INCREASE EVEN FURTHER DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. TJSJ 08/1200Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 15K FEET...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND
STRONGER ABOVE THAT LEVEL. WITH THE PREVAILING AND EXPECTED
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW...VOLCANIC ASH AND STEAM FROM MONTSERRAT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT. A MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT...THEREFORE
THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL
LOCAL PASSAGES. THESE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK ON TUESDAY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

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Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#2948 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 08, 2009 9:50 pm

[b][AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1039 PM AST SUN NOV 8 2009

.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING AS AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA...IS
TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE REGION. FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO NOTED MOVING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS OVER
PARTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST INCREASING MOISTURE
AND PWAT VALUES...WHICH WAS ALREADY REFLECTED IN LATEST TJSJ 00Z
U/A SOUNDING...AS WELL AS CURRENT MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE NOW APPARENT JUST NORTH AND NORTH EAST OF ISLANDS AND
THIS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. IN AGREEMENT WITH INHERITED FORECAST REASONING
AND THEREFORE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.AVIATION UPDATE... BRIEF PERIODS OF PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS TIST...TISX...TJSJ AND TJBQ OVERNIGHT AS BANDS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
OVER THE ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...WIND FLOW BECOMING STRONGER LATER
ON TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. VOLCANIC ASH AND STEAM FROM MONTSERRAT
SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/b]
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Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#2949 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 09, 2009 5:52 am

Good morning to all.A wet week ahead.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
443 AM AST MON NOV 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. A
CUTOFF LOW WILL FORM NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH TROF AXIS TO
TRAIL SWD INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FRONTAL SHEARLINE WILL DROP SWD THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY FOCUSING SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COASTS
AND THE ERN THIRD OF PR AND USVI ON NE WINDS. MOISTURE IS DEEP
WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES AND ABOUT 140% OF NORMAL.
THE HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE
CAYEY AND LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGES WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCES RAINFALL.
A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT
REDUCING PRECIP CHANCES.

FCST FOR TUE-THU HINGES ON THE EVENTUAL FATE OF CUTOFF LOW. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BEEN CONSISTENTLY PREDICTING A SFC CYCLONE
THAT FORMS NORTH OF THE AREA THAT EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH THAT EXITS THE U.S EAST COAST LATER IN THE WEEK. CYCLONE
PHASE DIAGRAMS FRM FSU ARE HALF-SPLIT WITH THIS SFC CYCLONE
INDICATING AN EITHER COLD-CORE OR TROPICAL CYCLONE. WITH TROF AXIS
FCST TO EXTEND ACROSS PR THIS WOULD TEND TO PUT THE USVI AT A
HIGHER RISK OF SEEING ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND FLASH FLOODING.
WE`LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS CUTOFF LOW/SFC
CYCLONE CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN CASE IN DROPS FURTHER
SOUTHWEST/DEVELOPS FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FCST AS SFC
DEVELOPMENT COULD TAKE ABOUT ANYWHERE ALONG THIS SFC TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AT JSJ/IST/ISX WITH SHRAS AND VCTS. ALL OTHER
TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH JUST VCSH.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41043 SHOWS 9 FT SEAS PRIMARILY IN NRLY SWELLS. NAH
MODEL OUTPUT FOR FCST POINT NORTH OF PR SHOWS SEAS PEAKING AT 9FT
WED MORNING IN NNE SWELLS. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MID WEEK.

ANOTHER MODERATE SWELL EVENT IS FCST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
ENSEMBLE WAVEWATCH INDICATING HIGH PROBS OF EXCEEDING 2-METER SEAS
AND 11-SECS SWELL PERIOD.
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#2950 Postby Gustywind » Mon Nov 09, 2009 8:00 am

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Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#2951 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 09, 2009 9:16 am

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1013 AM AST MON NOV 9 2009

PRC021-033-061-127-135-137-091715-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0375.091109T1413Z-091109T1715Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TOA ALTA PR-GUAYNABO PR-CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-TOA BAJA PR-
1013 AM AST MON NOV 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TOA ALTA...GUAYNABO...CATANO...SAN JUAN AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 115 PM AST

* AT 1010 AM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. WITHIN
THE PAST HOUR...ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREA RANGED FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. AT LEAST THROUGH
115 PM AST...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER WATERS AND MOVE
THROUGH THESE AREAS PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
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#2952 Postby Gustywind » Mon Nov 09, 2009 11:36 am

Yellow alert has been requiered for Guadeloupe due to a risk of strong showers and tstorms.
:rarrow: http://www.meteo.gp/index.php?page=Incl ... e=spe_gene
Numerous lightnings are doting my area, and the thunder is rumbling pretty strongly. Winds are calm, no showers for the moment, but we're monitoring closely the situation here...
I will keep your informed as usual.
Be safe Msbee, Cycloneye and the others too.
Gustywind :)
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#2953 Postby Gustywind » Mon Nov 09, 2009 11:40 am

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#2954 Postby Gustywind » Mon Nov 09, 2009 12:34 pm

Hey Barbara, what's the weather like in the Nothern Leewards?
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#2955 Postby Gustywind » Mon Nov 09, 2009 12:42 pm

From the weather site of Stormcarib.com :darrow:
Here are some reports of two correspondants from Antigua
:rarrow: http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/antigua.shtml
- Wind direction & Thunder
By Alan Scholl <scholla at candw.ag>
Date: Mon, 09 Nov 2009 11:53:14 -0400

While leaving this morning for work, I noticed a distinct change in the wind direction. It was steady out of the West North West. There was a scent as the McKinnons swamp familiar smell blew into McKinnons/Paradise View area.


A few hours later, I thought a war broke out. The thunder was quite heavy and even though I am in a bunker of a building, I could feel my desk shake ever so slightly with every crack of the thunder. It has calmed down a bit but it is overcast with shower activity.

Alan B Scholl
http://www.digitalphoto.ag


- Thunderstorms and lightning...
By dorecia whyte <doreciawhyte at gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 9 Nov 2009 10:34:34 -0400

We here in Antigua are watching this blob of weather inching closer to us, already bringing loud peals of thunder and fascinating flashes of lightning. Weathermen have announced flash flood warnings for Antigua today. So far the rain has not been heavy, but steady. We are happy for the showers, which has been scarce this year, but I wish I could send the thunder and lightning far far away. (laugh).

Be safe.

Dorecia
Antigua
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#2956 Postby Gustywind » Mon Nov 09, 2009 1:42 pm

000
AXNT20 KNHC 091746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 26.5N 88.3W AT 09/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 285 MILES...460 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MOVING NNW AT 15 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NEAR THE CENTER FROM 27N-28N BETWEEN 87W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 23N-33N BETWEEN 83W-86W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
NONE.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 5N20W 8N50W 9N61W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 12W-18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N
BETWEEN 17W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N
BETWEEN 37W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM IDA IS THE PRIMARY FEATURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SEE ABOVE. IDA IS ENCOUNTERING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND
COOLER SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES AND IS THUS WEAKENING.
ELSEWHERE...NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS REMAIN OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE NW GULF
OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 93W-95W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF W OF
90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W WITH RIDGE
AXIS ALONG 80W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N
AND E GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE SW GULF AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. EXPECT...IDA TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE NE GULF COAST
IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS WITH STRONGER WINDS AND CONVECTION MOSTLY
N OF THE CENTER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
16N-22N E OF 62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 60W-70W. ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 76W-85W. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 80W-86W.
TRADEWINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N82W. ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE
N CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-20N. EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 37N67W. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N44W TO 29N50W 19N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
FRONT FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 55W-60W. A LARGE 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC E OF THE AZORES AT 37N22W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-70W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AT 32N27W. OVER THE TROPICS AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 11N25W.

$$
FORMOSA
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#2957 Postby Gustywind » Mon Nov 09, 2009 1:56 pm

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 091839
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST MON NOV 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED TO A WEAK FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
ADJACENT ISLANDS. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA
LATER TODAY WITH A TROUGH AXIS TO TRAIL SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTED THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...GENERATING RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 1 TO INCHES. THE AREA MOST AFFECTED WAS
THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MOVE ON SHOWERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS CONSTANT INFLUX OF SHOWERS OVER THIS
AREA WILL QUICKLY SATURATE THE SOILS ALONG THE NORTHERN HAL OF
PUERTO RICO.

MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
MAINTAINING THE REGION UNSTABLE AND MOIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJBQ...TJMZ...AND
TJPS TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TIST...TISX...TNCM...TKPK...AND TJSJ IN PASSING SHOWERS FROM 09/19Z
THROUGH AT LEAST 10/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.. A SECOND SURGE OF MODERATE TO LONG
PERIOD SWELLS WILL START TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING....THEREFORE THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL LOCAL PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 73 84 / 60 50 20 30
STT 75 84 76 84 / 60 50 30 40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ
AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND
VICINITY-VIEQUES.

VI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ST CROIX-ST.
THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

&&

$$

71/10
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#2958 Postby msbee » Mon Nov 09, 2009 2:27 pm

hope things are ok with you guys, gusty and cycloneye.
all quiet here. just overcast. no rain
and we could use some rain too.

Barbara
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Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#2959 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 09, 2009 2:33 pm

No rain today there Barbara? Here all day we haved been with scattered showers with some thunder and a fresh NE breeze.As the discussions of the San Juan NWS haved said recently,this week will be a rather wet one due to a weak cold front and a low forming just north of the Caribbean.

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#2960 Postby msbee » Mon Nov 09, 2009 3:08 pm

no rain at all, Luis.
not even the sound of distant thunder.
strange, huh? rain all around but completely bypassing us so far.
just gray cloudy skies
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