Florida Weather

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... &map.y=155

69 Degrees, feels colder with the breeze.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

For the month, well below average:
November Day and Departure from Average of High Temperature: Saint Petersburg, FL Whitted Airport
http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... story.html

1: -5
2: -7
3: 0
4: -10
5: -11
6: -4
7: +11 but reading was 88, validity in question
8: Invalid reading of 97, discard
9: +2
10: +3
11: +11? Reading of 88 is highly suspicious considering water temperatures were at least 25 degrees
colder...
12: +4
13: +8
14: +5
15: +5
16: -14
17: -13
18: -12
19: -16
20: -10
21: -6
22: -8
23: -6
24: -2
25: -6
26: -10
27: -8
28: -3

[JonathanBelles]

Everything from the threat of wintry/mixed precip to the threat of severe weather may have to be added into forecasts across Florida in the next few days. Right now I would say there is 5% chance (or less) for both mainly in North Florida, but it will be exciting to watch needless to say.

[jinftl]

Looking at the month-to-date temps (from NWS Miami CF-6 data for 11/1/08 - 11/27/08), definitely been a cooler month than we have seen in a while in south florida...and also very very dry...

what is interesting is there have been no record low temps (record low maximums or minimums) in either Miami or Fort Lauderdale this month. There have been 3 record high minimum temps in Miami and 4 in Fort Lauderdale during November 2008.

Miami
Avg High Nov 2008= 79.7
Avg Low Nov 2008= 64.3
Average= 72.0 (coolest monthly average since January 2008 avg of 70.3)
Dept from Normal= -2.7 deg
Highest Temp= 88 (11/15/08)
Lowest Temp= 52 (11/19/08)
Rainfall= 0.75" (-2.41" from normal)

Fort Lauderdale
Avg High Nov 2008= 80.4
Avg Low Nov 2008= 65.0
Average= 72.7 (coolest monthly average since January 2008 avg of 70.2)
Dept from Normal= -1.7 deg
Highest Temp= 88 (11/15/08)
Lowest Temp= 51 (11/19/08)
Rainfall= 0.30" (-3.91" from normal)

For the month, well below average:
November Day and Departure from Average of High Temperature: Saint Petersburg, FL Whitted Airport
http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... story.html

[HURAKAN]

The low today was 50.2ºF but the high went up to 81.2ºF.

[MiamiensisWx]

Overall, my PDO research suggests the winter season's duration will feature fewer severe/persistent cold events in southern Florida. However, I believe we will witness lower average temperatures (during some periods) than recent years. Regardless, this statement does not imply we will observe significant negative (below average) temperature departures... we may merely return to longer periods with means "near average", as opposed to "strongly above average/below average." I still anticipate a south Florida winter with above average temperatures, based on the means over the "long haul" (December through March).

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Colder in Tampa than in Tallahassee and Pensacola!
Tampa Vandenberg: 48*F
http://www.wunderground.com/US/FL/Tampa/KVDF.html

Tallahassee: 64*F
http://www.wunderground.com/US/FL/Tallahassee/KTLH.html

16 degrees Warmer in Tallahassee than in Tampa!!!! Crazy high
pressure right on top of central FL allowing radiational cooling.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Currently 51*F in the cooler spot in Saint Petersburg.
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MC1721

Officially it is around 59*F downtown.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KFLVALRI4
Valrico, FL, which is Southeast and inland from tampa is
45*F, nearly 20 degrees Colder than Tallahassee!!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Backyard Thermometer at 53*F

[JonathanBelles]

The clouds over NFL will allow SFL to be cooler than NFL for once.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... &map.y=144
Saayy whaat? For Bellair, Pinellas Beach.
Sunday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. Windy, with a southwest wind 17 to 20 mph increasing to between 26 and 29 mph. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

[JonathanBelles]

Wow! Gonna be gusty at the beaches on Sunday. From the beaches to my house there will be a 10mph difference in gusts.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Could be some dangerous rip currents with those types of winds on Sunday...
Probably a high surf advisory might be issued

[jinftl]

Can't imagine too many folks will be in the gulf with these water temps in the 65-68 deg range...ocean temps on the se fl coast about 10 deg warmer than that....nice for tourists, chilly even for locals.



Link to water temps around fl peninsula....
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/analysis/?type=SST

Could be some dangerous rip currents with those types of winds on Sunday...
Probably a high surf advisory might be issued

[JonathanBelles]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2008

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL...

UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD EAST OF THE ROCKIES
WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED DEEP INTO THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS EVOLUTION WILL OCCUR AS MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES IN
EXCESS OF 100KT FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NRN GULF...NEWD
INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME TIME...VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD STRETCH FROM SWRN GA...SWWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF AT 12Z.
MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WILL BE RETARDED EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...BUT WITH TIME FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT TO OVERSPREAD AT LEAST THE SRN PENINSULA
WITH 65-70F DEW POINTS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
A WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH A NARROW BAND
OF FORCED ASCENT/MOISTENING ALONG PRIMARY WIND SHIFT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE MINIMALLY SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHTNING ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL
WHERE SFC-BASED PARCELS ARE BUOYANT THROUGH ABOUT 500-400MB BEFORE
REACHING THEIR EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS JUST SHY OF MINUS 20C. IT APPEARS
LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WILL BE ABUNDANT ALONG SHARP COLD FRONT EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA
BY MID AFTERNOON BEFORE A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENCE ZONE ENHANCES THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE
SRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. THIS SRN ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE WITHIN A
MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS COOLING
ALOFT OVERSPREADS INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. MODELS APPEAR
TO BE CONVERGING TOWARD A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FL. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SUPERCELLS...AND
POTENTIALLY ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED ACROSS THIS
REGION IF SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON THIS
STRONGLY SHEARED...BUOYANT AIRMASS.

..DARROW.. 11/29/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0629Z (1:29AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[jinftl]

Differences in dewpoint (and wind direction) resulting in huge variation of temps across the state....temps won't really drop much more south of orlando and tampa since the air temps are getting close to the dewpoints....potential for lots of fog formation though...

FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
100 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2008

PENSACOLA Temp 69 Dewpt 66
DESTIN Temp 71 Dewpt 64
TALLAHASSEE Temp 63 Dewpt 62
GAINESVILLE Temp 51 Dewpt 43
JACKSONVILLE Temp 58 Dewpt 42
ORLANDO INTL Temp 52 Dewpt 46
MELBOURNE Temp 56 Dewpt 49
VERO BEACH Temp 59 Dewpt 51
BROOKSVILLE Temp 46 Dewpt 39
CLEARWATER Temp 53 Dewpt 50
TAMPA Temp 60 Dewpt 54
ST PETERSBURG Temp 58 Dewpt 56
FT MYERS Temp 58 Dewpt 56
KEY WEST INTL Temp 73 Dewpt 60
FT LAUDERDALE Temp 63 Dewpt 56
MIAMI Temp 64 Dewpt 58

[JonathanBelles]

seems to me that over the last few days, the TBW NWS is expecting worse(r) and worse(r) conditions. High winds, isolated tornadoes, and waterspouts were all mentioned in each of the morning products this morning.

[jinftl]

NWS Tampa Bay has inched up the forecast lows after the front...doesn't appear there will be a widespread frost or freeze threat up in your neck of the woods...the usual cold spots will possibly see some scattered frost, but nothing widespread as of now. Zonal pattern looks like it will set up by Thursday into next weekend.

NWS Forecast for: Tampa FL
Issued by: National Weather Service Tampa Bay, FL
Last Update: 1:29 am EST Nov 29, 2008

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. South southwest wind between 8 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. South wind between 8 and 11 mph.

Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Some storms could be severe, with damaging winds. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. Southwest wind between 13 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers. Some storms could be severe, with damaging winds. Cloudy, with a low around 57. West northwest wind between 11 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. .

Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 64. West northwest wind between 14 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. Northwest wind around 10 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 63. North northeast wind between 5 and 9 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 45. North wind around 7 mph becoming east.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 69. East wind between 3 and 6 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 51.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 55.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.

seems to me that over the last few days, the TBW NWS is expecting worse(r) and worse(r) conditions. High winds, isolated tornadoes, and waterspouts were all mentioned in each of the morning products this morning.

[HURAKAN]

The rain is badly needed.