Seeing gravity waves over OK ahead of the dryline.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0896
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK...NW TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 231908Z - 232045Z
A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS WRN OK AND NORTHWEST TX
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS INITIATE. INITIALLY...LARGE HAIL WILL
THE GREATEST THREAT BUT A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
THE STORMS BECOME MORE MATURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE WILL
BE LIKELY ONCE INITIATION OF MULTIPLE STORMS BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
AT THE SFC...A 1002 MB LOW IS LOCATED IN FAR NE TX PANHANDLE WITH A
DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD INTO WEST TX. EAST OF THE DRYLINE...SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F WITH MESOANALYSIS
ESTIMATING MLCAPE VALUES FROM 3500 TO 4500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF WRN
OK AND NW TX. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CUMULUS TOWERS IN
BECKHAM COUNTY OK. ATTM...THE CUMULUS FIELD IS VERY SMALL BUT IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS
ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS FROM THE WEST SHOULD RESULT IN
VIGOROUS STORM INITIATION. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE...THE
STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 45 KT SHOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY AND A
TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AS THE STORMS MATURE AND
THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES EARLY THIS EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 05/23/2011
