Texas Fall-2016

[TeamPlayersBlue]

59 at TPB weather center! First time below 60 since May 8th! Felt amazing playing softball last night with a lovely northern breeze. Hoping for a beautiful weekend!

[weatherdude1108]

58 degrees at 6:30am here.

My AC decided to go out a couple days ago and can't be fixed until next Thursday. Hopefully it won't be too uncomfortably warm by then.

Edit: Turns out it can be fixed on Monday. So it's all good. Love this weather!

[Ntxw]

If you haven't been following, the Atlantic is on the verge of it's first cat 5 storm since 2007. It's been a long time, now Matthew down in the Caribbean

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I have family in Jamaica. Say a prayer for them please.

[Brent]

hey a real Cat 5 in the Atlantic! lol

[weatherdude1108]

hey a real Cat 5 in the Atlantic! lol

Is this our same Cat 5 that the models picked up on and showed going into the Gulf and Lousiana several model runs ago?

[Brent]

hey a real Cat 5 in the Atlantic! lol

Is this our same Cat 5 that the models picked up on and showed going into the Gulf and Lousiana several model runs ago?

Yep sure is

[Ntxw]

This is a day old but it gives you a general idea of what October has to work with.

We are well above normal in terms of snow coverage in Asia. This is actually a bad thing when looking at SAI (you want less snow and then explode). Generally with more room to expand the growth rate is generally higher from the beginning of the month. SCE (snow cover extent) is very healthy. Remember the SAI is not an indicator for if it's going to be a cold or warm winter just the ability to predict the AO. SCE has some correlation as to cold air availability. We'll need it to slow down a bit and wait to the second half of the month to quickly recover.

Climo



Current coverage



And just for interests, North America is running about normal. We are also experiencing one of the fastest Arctic ice refreezes on record.

[JDawg512]

Rain chances don't look good for next week. Doesn't look great for the second week of October either but maybe something will change between now and the end of this week. Looking for any hint of better rain chances...

[Brent]

Seeing some signs of some 40s possibly even into the DFW metroplex next weekend... Either way, looks like a nice cool snap(at least as good as this last one) behind the front that sweeps Matthew up the east coast or OTS

But yeah, I'm still looking for some decent rain chances too. Maybe the 2nd half of the month like last year...

[weatherdude1108]

Rain chances don't look good for next week. Doesn't look great for the second week of October either but maybe something will change between now and the end of this week. Looking for any hint of better rain chances...

I am hoping something changes too.

[dhweather]

The GFS takes the pouch still over Africa and forms it down the road in the Caribbean(and winds up in the Gulf at 384 hours), but obviously it's pure fantasy land.

Ah... Gotcha. Thanks for the explanation. If I see a unicorn in my backyard, I will begin to worry.

And realistically, even if that scenario actually played out, you have a strong trough moving in from the west, so the "cat 5" would be pushed off northeast. But the most important thing to remember is THAT's 384 hours out, NO MODEL IS ACCURATE 384 HOURS OUT. That's 16 days. If it was 6 days, that's a different story.

With Cat 4 Matthew now bearing down on Eastern Cuba, how about some love for the GFS! I remember on this run, the GFS took the system across the Atlantic, near Eastern Cuba, then up the east coast. Well here we go, up the East coast this week......


Meanwhile, I could go for a hard freeze to kill off allergens and bugs.

[Ntxw]

Interesting factoid, in 2012 four years ago during this week (Oct 8th) DFW hit 39F degrees. At the time most of us hadn't realized what occured but it was the earliest date DFW went into the 30s to start a fall season. Also marking a record low for the date.

Of course later on Christmas day that year DFW airport recorded snow and some blowing snow that afternoon marking the second in 4 years with any snow on Christmas day.

[Brent]

The GFS says we might need to break out the jackets this weekend... some 30s appear in Eastern Oklahoma Sunday Morning. Highs only in the 60s both days at DFW. Thanks Matthew lol.

[Ntxw]

Brent has already mentioned it. Trough kicks through second half of this weekend and will give us another gorgeous fall weekend. Most of the work week will be seasonably warm in the mid to upper 80s (80s feel hot to me in October ). Looks mostly dry though unfortunately.

[Tireman4]

The 70's are coming!

[JDawg512]

Yup, it's looking dry through at least October 15th. Last October was dry till about the 20th then became very floody. Who knows if we will see a repeat or we will end the month below normal.

[Portastorm]

Big, big differences between the GFS and Euro for this weekend for Texas. The GFS has that nice autumn front y'all have been talking about. The Euro says "I'll show you what to do with that autumn front of yours ..." and keeps temps warm over the state.

[Portastorm]

At least in my part of Texas there remains stark differences between the GFS and Euro temperature wise for this coming weekend. GFS shows very pleasant autumn weather with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the mid 50s. Euro, however, shows highs in the upper 80s and lows around 70.

Hope the GFS is right.

[Tireman4]

At least in my part of Texas there remains stark differences between the GFS and Euro temperature wise for this coming weekend. GFS shows very pleasant autumn weather with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the mid 50s. Euro, however, shows highs in the upper 80s and lows around 70.

Hope the GFS is right.

It has to be Porta. It just has to be. Oh, good luck to your Indians sir.