STORM2K

Posted: **Thu Mar 22, 2018 6:19 pm**

bubba hotep wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
The ensembles are showing some very cold air up in Canada and signs of a return to -NAO. Could be a perfect storm with the right recurve and transition.

Don’t plant those gardens yet!

The 12z GEFS has multiple members showing winter weather for various parts of Texas in the longer range.

Even past Easter there are hints...

definitely looks like below normal temps at the least behind the rain event

Posted: **Thu Mar 22, 2018 9:19 pm**

Newest Euro Weeklies are wet all the way into May :rain:

Posted: **Thu Mar 22, 2018 10:06 pm**

bubba hotep wrote:Newest Euro Weeklies are wet all the way into May

CFS agrees

Posted: **Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:51 am**

The overnight guidance continues to advertise an active weather week likely beginning next Tuesday and continuing until next Thursday before a cold front pushes through and brings a nice Easter Weekend.

The Ensembles are in agreement suggesting a Spring like Upper Trough and a Southern Rockies Storm System begins to organize on Tuesday and deepen. Wednesday, this Southern Storm should begin to slowly eject E into West Texas and the Permian Basin moving ENE. The Storm Prediction Center has Outline a possible severe thunderstorm potential for areas along and East of the I-35 Corridor of S Central/Central and NE Texas.

Concern grows Wednesday night into Thursday as leeside cyclogenesis wraps up a powerful storm system and attending cold front begins its march SE where PW's are expected to be near 2 inches suggesting heavy training thunderstorms may be possible. I would not be surprised to see portion of SE Texas to be highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center in future Outlooks. While it is too soon to know exactly where and which neighborhoods may be impacted by heavy rainfall and potential severe weather, it will be worth monitoring over the weekend into early next week as we 'fine tune' what our sensible weather may bring.

Posted: **Fri Mar 23, 2018 8:03 am**

Posted: **Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:47 am**

We need the rain down here. We are in moderate to severe drought in our area. Looks like relief is on the way. Feels much different outside this morning. More humidity and a lot of wind, coming straight off the Gulf. Good start.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms looks probable for next week. Isolated storms could occur on Monday but be limited in coverage. More widespread showers and storms could occur on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. While the heaviest rain should be Northeast of the area, a few pockets of heavy rain will be possible. Stay tuned over the weekend for more updates and the wetter pattern shaping up.

An increase in moisture along with a warming trend can be expected into the upcoming weekend. Dry weather is expected today and Saturday, with rain chances returning Sunday for areas generally along and north of Highway 90. An approaching upper level storm system and cold front will bring an increasing chance of rainfall to all areas toward the middle of the upcoming work week.

Posted: **Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:02 pm**

That looks like a lot of cold air...

Posted: **Fri Mar 23, 2018 1:57 pm**

bubba hotep wrote:That looks like a lot of cold air...

if that went a little more south... :froze:

Posted: **Fri Mar 23, 2018 2:16 pm**

For ATX;

When the gfs shows 1" and the euro shows 4"

AHH

Posted: **Fri Mar 23, 2018 3:43 pm**

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
324 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Low level moisture will steadily increase tonight through Saturday
night beneath a capping inversion. This will lead to increasing
cloud cover and warmer overnight lows. Can`t rule out some patchy
drizzle or light rain Saturday morning along the southern Escarpment.
Winds on Saturday should be weaker than today as the pressure
gradient relaxes slightly.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
A strong capping inversion will remain in place Sunday and Monday
across central and eastern areas of the CWA with continued warm and
mostly cloudy conditions as well as a slight chance of showers.
Farther west, the dry line Sunday afternoon and evening should become
active across West Central Texas along with a few storms associated
with orographic lift up the Serranias del Burro. Can`t rule out some
of these storms making into far northern and far western areas of the
CWA late Sunday where cap erodes. CAPE values are forecast to
increase to over 1500 J/kg along with deep layer shear values of 60
kts, and can`t rule out a storm or two becoming strong to severe,
with hail and damaging straight-line winds the primary threat. The
Day 3 Marginal Risk from SPC clips far northwest areas of the CWA. A
mid level shortwave in the southwest flow aloft will aid in convection
chances Monday Night into Tuesday and send the dry line further into
the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains Monday afternoon
and evening and into the Hill Country Tuesday. This should allow for
better chances for showers and storms near and northwest of a Del Rio
to Llano line late Monday as the cap erodes. Again instability and
shear values should be favorable for some strong to severe storms
northwest of this line and eventually extending eastward through
portions of the eastern Hill Country Tuesday.

Better chances for more widespread rainfall will come Tuesday night
through Wednesday night as a combination of a potent upper level low
to the west across northern Mexico opens and approaches, interacting
with a frontal boundary and deep moisture in place. There is still
significant uncertainty on frontal timing between GFS and ECMWF on
Wednesday as well as run to run consistency. 12Z GFS is now quicker
and farther south with the front Wednesday with post frontal
precipitation and cool temperatures over the region. However it does
appear showers and storms will be likely in general Tuesday night
through Wednesday night, possibly with more of a focus for pockets of
locally heavy rainfall if all ingredients come together, especially
with a slower frontal solution and the significantly anomalous high
precipitable waters forecast over the region.

Drier conditions and clearing skies are expected Thursday as the main
trough axis moves east. An upstream disturbance aloft is shown by
the GFS to move through West Central Texas and into North Central
Texas Thursday night into Friday, possibly clipping northern areas
of the CWA. ECMWF has this signal as well, but slightly faster. At
this time will keep the Thursday night and Friday dry due to
confidence.

Posted: **Sat Mar 24, 2018 9:37 am**

Higher totals moving east as we get closer. Right on par.

Posted: **Sat Mar 24, 2018 9:40 am**

There will be some svr wx chances over the next few days across much of Texas.

Posted: **Sat Mar 24, 2018 1:50 pm**

Posted: **Sat Mar 24, 2018 4:18 pm**

I hope you guys enjoy your rain. I really don't want to deal with the death ridge this Summer lol.

Posted: **Sat Mar 24, 2018 4:21 pm**

Early April cold snap? :double:

Posted: **Sat Mar 24, 2018 5:44 pm**

Please no.

Posted: **Sat Mar 24, 2018 6:17 pm**

Well I can't say I didn't expect what was originally forecasted as about a week of rain with a stalled front in the area down to about a day and a half with dry weather the rest of the forecast period.

Posted: **Sat Mar 24, 2018 9:02 pm**

JDawg512 wrote:Well I can't say I didn't expect what was originally forecasted as about a week of rain with a stalled front in the area down to about a day and a half with dry weather the rest of the forecast period.

In reality, it'll wind up being less than 0.25-0.50" of rain across the Austin area, mainly in the form of light rain. Thunderstorms all around us though. That's been my experience so far in Manor. RR/Pflugerville keeps getting hammered but we only get drizzle.

Posted: **Sat Mar 24, 2018 10:13 pm**

DFW tied record high of 89 today. Yay. Not.

Posted: **Sat Mar 24, 2018 11:34 pm**

I wish it was 89 degrees here lol. We got teased with the upper 60s and 70s in February and it's been cool or cold ever since.

STORM2K

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