Texas Summer 2022
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
Nice little mini break today and tomorrow from the 100's. Then look out, a lengthy, sustained stretch of 100+ days are on the way. And it's not even July. Just nasty.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
gpsnowman wrote:Nice little mini break today and tomorrow from the 100's. Then look out, a lengthy, sustained stretch of 100+ days are on the way. And it's not even July. Just nasty.
It stinks. Lucky few may get popcorn showers today. Small ray of hope maybe thermocline in enso can push for MJO regime change few months later.
We've normalized the heat from May to June. The drought may not be as bad as 2011 but the month of June is beating 2011. Not a good start 1/3 meteorological summer months.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
It's a stretch, but the updated long term forecasts from CPC have north Texas back in "normal" temps and precip by January, and actually above normal precip by March. Might just be the mirage on the horizon though.
Latest ENSO advisory has us in La Nina until the end of the year now. Ugh.
Latest ENSO advisory has us in La Nina until the end of the year now. Ugh.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
Need this to come true. Higher heights over the Pac NW is good!
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- captainbarbossa19
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
DallasAg wrote:It's a stretch, but the updated long term forecasts from CPC have north Texas back in "normal" temps and precip by January, and actually above normal precip by March. Might just be the mirage on the horizon though.
Latest ENSO advisory has us in La Nina until the end of the year now. Ugh.
I wouldn't worry too much. It is rather unlikely La Nina will continue into spring next year. Personally, I think we will be in neutral by February or March next year.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
Ntxw wrote:Need this to come true. Higher heights over the Pac NW is good!
https://i.imgur.com/RLkxpPT.png
Yeah that's certainly our next best hope for heat and drought relief...definitely hope it verifies!
Unfortunately the next week looks brutal, especially next weekend. Much of the state could see highs near or over 105 then. Ugh.
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- captainbarbossa19
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
South Texas Storms wrote:Ntxw wrote:Need this to come true. Higher heights over the Pac NW is good!
https://i.imgur.com/RLkxpPT.png
Yeah that's certainly our next best hope for heat and drought relief...definitely hope it verifies!
Unfortunately the next week looks brutal, especially next weekend. Much of the state could see highs near or over 105 then. Ugh.
I think models are still being too aggressive with high temperatures in the long range. Last weekend, they were showing this weekend's highs to be about 105 for even coastal areas, and right now it's only been up to about 97 for my area. Reaching 105 is very difficult for coastal regions and it requires very strong ridging and onshore winds out of the W/NW. It can be done, but it needs almost perfect conditions to get there. Unfortunately, I wouldn't be surprised to see this summer pull it off at some point.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
South Texas Storms wrote:Ntxw wrote:Need this to come true. Higher heights over the Pac NW is good!
https://i.imgur.com/RLkxpPT.png
Yeah that's certainly our next best hope for heat and drought relief...definitely hope it verifies!
Unfortunately the next week looks brutal, especially next weekend. Much of the state could see highs near or over 105 then. Ugh.
There is some support from the ENS and Euro of the NW North American ridge, that would take the pressure off us. At the very least a break from this monotonous heat and down closer to normal. At this point taking anything.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
captainbarbossa19 wrote:DallasAg wrote:It's a stretch, but the updated long term forecasts from CPC have north Texas back in "normal" temps and precip by January, and actually above normal precip by March. Might just be the mirage on the horizon though.
Latest ENSO advisory has us in La Nina until the end of the year now. Ugh.
I wouldn't worry too much. It is rather unlikely La Nina will continue into spring next year. Personally, I think we will be in neutral by February or March next year.
I think the PDO will be important as well. If we have entered a -PDO decadal regime the overall dry stretches will continue regardless of ENSO, just at different magnitudes. La Nina in itself there are good and bad ones but often tied to what the PDO is doing also.
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- captainbarbossa19
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
Ntxw wrote:captainbarbossa19 wrote:DallasAg wrote:It's a stretch, but the updated long term forecasts from CPC have north Texas back in "normal" temps and precip by January, and actually above normal precip by March. Might just be the mirage on the horizon though.
Latest ENSO advisory has us in La Nina until the end of the year now. Ugh.
I wouldn't worry too much. It is rather unlikely La Nina will continue into spring next year. Personally, I think we will be in neutral by February or March next year.
I think the PDO will be important as well. If we have entered a -PDO decadal regime the overall dry stretches will continue regardless of ENSO, just at different magnitudes. La Nina in itself there are good and bad ones but often tied to what the PDO is doing also.
Looking at PDO data, the values have been negative since 2020 combined with ENSO. However, it does look like PDO values have been hanging around 2-3 degrees C below normal since September 2021. A similar pattern took place between July 2010 and September 2012. However, I don't think PDO is a great way to determine dry/hot summers for us. Last year, PDO and ENSO were negative all summer and temperatures were below-normal for much of the state, while precip was normal to above-normal. In 1980, PDO did dip into negative territory in June and the heat/drought was relentless, but before that PDO was positive all spring. ENSO was also neutral to warm-neutral.
Regarding the idea of continual dry stretches, I am not sure I can buy that argument fully yet. 2007 and 2002 are good examples of a positive ENSO event coupled with negative PDO for most of the year, yet much of the state featured above-average precipitation. Meanwhile, 2005 featured positive PDO combined with warm-neutral ENSO from March until July and featured my area's fourth driest spring in the past 25 years. On the flip side, there are years like 2008 that featured negative ENSO and PDO that also had lower than average precipitation for much of the state. These are just recent examples I am using and I am sure that there are other examples like 2008 that support the idea of dry stretches. However, there is also a chance we could have a year more like 2002 or 2007.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
captainbarbossa19 wrote:Ntxw wrote:captainbarbossa19 wrote:
I wouldn't worry too much. It is rather unlikely La Nina will continue into spring next year. Personally, I think we will be in neutral by February or March next year.
I think the PDO will be important as well. If we have entered a -PDO decadal regime the overall dry stretches will continue regardless of ENSO, just at different magnitudes. La Nina in itself there are good and bad ones but often tied to what the PDO is doing also.
Looking at PDO data, the values have been negative since 2020 combined with ENSO. However, it does look like PDO values have been hanging around 2-3 degrees C below normal since September 2021. A similar pattern took place between July 2010 and September 2012. However, I don't think PDO is a great way to determine dry/hot summers for us. Last year, PDO and ENSO were negative all summer and temperatures were below-normal for much of the state, while precip was normal to above-normal. In 1980, PDO did dip into negative territory in June and the heat/drought was relentless, but before that PDO was positive all spring. ENSO was also neutral to warm-neutral.
Regarding the idea of continual dry stretches, I am not sure I can buy that argument fully yet. 2007 and 2002 are good examples of a positive ENSO event coupled with negative PDO for most of the year, yet much of the state featured above-average precipitation. Meanwhile, 2005 featured positive PDO combined with warm-neutral ENSO from March until July and featured my area's fourth driest spring in the past 25 years. On the flip side, there are years like 2008 that featured negative ENSO and PDO that also had lower than average precipitation for much of the state. These are just recent examples I am using and I am sure that there are other examples like 2008 that support the idea of dry stretches. However, there is also a chance we could have a year more like 2002 or 2007.
Well yeah but saying it's going to flip because it's going to flip is not a great way to go about it from a predictive standpoint. The key being that right now the PDO is very negative, alongside the usual 500mb unfavorably from La Nina, and the SOI from the Pacific. Last year the 500mb pattern over North America was favorable for Texas in the summer from the usual, but this year it is not. That's the whole picture and what is present and should continue for some months more given the nature of how these indexes work. Will it change? Eventually but we don't know if it will anytime soon. The years you mentioned like 1980, 2002, 2007 etc are all within transition between + and - PDO periods. We are entrenched in one now unlike those mentioned years. So if you were making a sound prediction or looking ahead, it's not likely to drastically change...until something does then you are looking at months down the road before the effects are settled. We just got out of a decent + stretch so it's just mother nature balancing the very wet stretch with a dry stretch in the decadal pattern.
There is no guaranty warm ENSO will happen either. Not with the trade winds still anomalous over the Pacific. You need successive WWBs to change that first and then will allow the thermocline to decrease in slope, at that point in conjecture with the MJO can help kick off +ENSO. None of this is expected to occur any time soon, Summer and Fall is also often not the time for such drastic changes to happen that quickly.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
Ntxw wrote:South Texas Storms wrote:Ntxw wrote:Need this to come true. Higher heights over the Pac NW is good!
https://i.imgur.com/RLkxpPT.png
Yeah that's certainly our next best hope for heat and drought relief...definitely hope it verifies!
Unfortunately the next week looks brutal, especially next weekend. Much of the state could see highs near or over 105 then. Ugh.
There is some support from the ENS and Euro of the NW North American ridge, that would take the pressure off us. At the very least a break from this monotonous heat and down closer to normal. At this point taking anything.
One of our mets up here is talking about that timeframe too... Hopefully something good verifies. I will say tomorrow and Monday isn't too bad but then it goes back to torch real fast
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
NWS-Norman has a 30% chance of storms for my area today
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
Iceresistance wrote:NWS-Norman has a 30% chance of storms for my area today
Same down here. Let’s hope it verifies.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
Straight up gully washer here!
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
The GFS looks really good next week compared to the last couple weeks
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
Damn... that storm that blew threw here apparently capsized a boat on Lavon and there is currently search and rescue ongoing. Stay safe out on the water.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
Brent wrote:The GFS looks really good next week compared to the last couple weeks
Yea, ensembles seem to want to flip the pattern and anchor lower heights over Hudson Bay with the ridge on the WC. That would break the heat and give us NW flow chances.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
Models are showing some sort vorticity moving from east to west across the Gulf around late this coming weekend or into the beginning part of next week.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
Can handle the last couple days but concerned about July and August now that the ground has really heated up. Delkus trying to frighten DFW residents this am with data he grabbed from: https://www.weather.gov/fwd/dfwclimo
https://twitter.com/wfaaweather/status/1538870556887592966
https://twitter.com/wfaaweather/status/1538870556887592966
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