STORM2K

starsfan65 wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:And just like that, the heavy rainfall risk for the Southern Plains is gone. This is getting extremely old, stupid Cockroach Death Ridge!

How is it gone?

No longer shows up on the CPC's heavy precip risk.

Iceresistance wrote:

starsfan65 wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:And just like that, the heavy rainfall risk for the Southern Plains is gone. This is getting extremely old, stupid Cockroach Death Ridge!

How is it gone?

No longer shows up on the CPC's heavy precip risk.

Ugh. I noticed that, too. It has the lighter shade of green/above normal precip (the lower above normal chance) as well, but still above normal at least.

I guess the silver lining, even it goes to "average" chances, it would be higher chances than we have seen the past month, from a climatological perspective.

ENSO/SOI really sucks right now.

A high of 68 Saturday it's been awhile

But yeah some rain would be nice. It tried last night and a few drops made it but yeah... Last real rain was the near flood when September started

Brent wrote:A high of 68 Saturday it's been awhile

But yeah some rain would be nice. It tried last night and a few drops made it but yeah...

Expecting 60°F here.

Ntxw wrote:DFW too is going through second stretch of such anomalous dry spell.

https://i.imgur.com/z7u2Bux.png

Tidbit...outside of 2015 and 1999 the following winters were pretty chilly on this list.

Kind of concerning that 50% of the longest dry spells over 100+ years have been since 1999.

Finally! It's raining outside!

Maybe it's just because it's been so hot lately but it's getting chilly tonight. Fall is definitely in the air. The wind is like a little preview of January

Brent wrote:Maybe it's just because it's been so hot lately but it's getting chilly tonight. Fall is definitely in the air. The wind is like a little preview of January

I know! When it was raining and had a chilly north wind, I was wet and chillyish, but it was so worth it!

Welp... so much for a shift to a more traditional fall pattern. Looks like ensembles are reverting back to warm and dry for as far as they eye can see.

bubba hotep wrote:Welp... so much for a shift to a more traditional fall pattern. Looks like ensembles are reverting back to warm and dry for as far as the eye can see.

This Cockroach Death Ridge is refusing to accept its fate.

bubba hotep wrote:Welp... so much for a shift to a more traditional fall pattern. Looks like ensembles are reverting back to warm and dry for as far as they eye can see.

To me the ensembles 500mb pattern doesn't look terrible. Med-long term the Aleutian ridge is replaced by a trof. It's very East-Coast centric with the trof though so at least we'll get seasonably cooler shots on its back edge. But the rain aspects never believed it. OLR out of the equatorial Pacific is bone dry. Even if there is a western trough, there's no moisture to link it.

Elsewhere some early signs of AO/NAO falling.

Got down to 43°F this morning, the lowest wind chill was 39°F.

DFW got really lucky with the deluge in late August. We'd be cranking top 10 driest years on record like many areas south of I-20.

October averages well over 4" of rain.

Ntxw wrote:DFW got really lucky with the deluge in late August. We'd be cranking top 10 driest years on record like many areas south of I-20.

October averages well over 4" of rain.

Got some showers right now that are clipping me to the south.

Hopefully some rain the next couple days.... The other big story seems to be possibly the coldest air of the season by Sunday and Monday next week. WeatherBug already has me around 40

The signal for some west NAO blocking is getting more defined. That will help drive some of the colder air S.

Ntxw wrote:The signal for some west NAO blocking is getting more defined. That will help drive some of the colder air S.

There are a number of things pointing to a -AO/NAO start to the winter. However, it seems like that is one of the trickier patterns to sniff out in the longer range. In the near term, it does look like a dip is coming with a legit below normal shot of cold air for N. TX. It looks to be a transient pattern with a pretty quick snap back to above normal. However, November has all the signs of a more persistent -AO/NAO patter but see the second sentence for my confidence level lol

bubba hotep wrote:

Ntxw wrote:The signal for some west NAO blocking is getting more defined. That will help drive some of the colder air S.

There are a number of things pointing to a -AO/NAO start to the winter. However, it seems like that is one of the trickier patterns to sniff out in the longer range. In the near term, it does look like a dip is coming with a legit below normal shot of cold air for N. TX. It looks to be a transient pattern with a pretty quick snap back to above normal. However, November has all the signs of a more persistent -AO/NAO patter but see the second sentence for my confidence level lol

I've come to terms that the Aleutian ridge is going to be a staple. I don't see a repeat of last Fall/Winter though. NPAC SSTs are too different. I do think we'll hear a lot more of the AO/NAO domain this winter like 2020.

Meanwhile agree with a good shot of cold air is probably coming, temperature wise October hasn't been too bad as it was looking beforehand.

Ntxw wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:

Ntxw wrote:The signal for some west NAO blocking is getting more defined. That will help drive some of the colder air S.

There are a number of things pointing to a -AO/NAO start to the winter. However, it seems like that is one of the trickier patterns to sniff out in the longer range. In the near term, it does look like a dip is coming with a legit below normal shot of cold air for N. TX. It looks to be a transient pattern with a pretty quick snap back to above normal. However, November has all the signs of a more persistent -AO/NAO patter but see the second sentence for my confidence level lol

I've come to terms that the Aleutian ridge is going to be a staple. I don't see a repeat of last Fall/Winter though. NPAC SSTs are too different. I do think we'll hear a lot more of the AO/NAO domain this winter like 2020.

Meanwhile agree with a good shot of cold air is probably coming, temperature wise October hasn't been too bad as it was looking beforehand.

Could we have a February 2021 all over again? Winter 2019-2020 was crazy with snow but the temperatures would not comply. Winter 2020-2021 was similar to Winter 2019-2020 with the snow potential, but the temperatures were crazy cold.

Ntxw wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:

Ntxw wrote:The signal for some west NAO blocking is getting more defined. That will help drive some of the colder air S.

There are a number of things pointing to a -AO/NAO start to the winter. However, it seems like that is one of the trickier patterns to sniff out in the longer range. In the near term, it does look like a dip is coming with a legit below normal shot of cold air for N. TX. It looks to be a transient pattern with a pretty quick snap back to above normal. However, November has all the signs of a more persistent -AO/NAO patter but see the second sentence for my confidence level lol

I've come to terms that the Aleutian ridge is going to be a staple. I don't see a repeat of last Fall/Winter though. NPAC SSTs are too different. I do think we'll hear a lot more of the AO/NAO domain this winter like 2020.

Meanwhile agree with a good shot of cold air is probably coming, temperature wise October hasn't been too bad as it was looking beforehand.

Ntxw, I heard on twitter from a guy who posts there often that we are having persistent IO/MARITIME CONTINENT convection the reason the pna will remain positive. My question is, in winter, that is a very warm set up. Don't you think we want to see that convection shift before winter because phases4-6 are crazy warm phases for us