Texas Fall 2023

[SoupBone]

Feels like the Houston forecast is going to bust. At least for north Houston. We'll see....

It has for me in the Spring/Cypress area, yet again. This is absolutely absurd.

[Fifty Rock]

Anyone know where I can find the radar estimated rain for the last 7 days, including today?

[jasons2k]

Feels like the Houston forecast is going to bust. At least for north Houston. We'll see....

It has for me in the Spring/Cypress area, yet again. This is absolutely absurd.

Same here, near Oak Ridge. Had a nice blob headed this way earlier that went poof on my doorstep, then reformed to the east. Another one just formed by Conroe and looks to stay to the north. Just can’t get a break.

[SoupBone]

Feels like the Houston forecast is going to bust. At least for north Houston. We'll see....

It has for me in the Spring/Cypress area, yet again. This is absolutely absurd.

Same here, near Oak Ridge. Had a nice blob headed this way earlier that went poof on my doorstep, then reformed to the east. Another one just formed by Conroe and looks to stay to the north. Just can’t get a break.

I really thought today was the day we'd finally break the no rain streak. I've been here 10 years and I don't recall a time when we've gotten zero rain for this long of a period (since I've been here).

[IcyTundra]

I feel bad for people in North Houston looks like most of the rain is going to be south of I-10.

[Edwards Limestone]

I feel bad for people in North Houston looks like most of the rain is going to be south of I-10.

Rough morning for the Houston and DFW metros so far (busts). Central to northern Austin metro is the big winner so far. SA metro was meh.

[Edwards Limestone]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC AC 141624

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm are possible along an axis from eastern
New Mexico to the Texas Gulf Coast, mainly from mid-afternoon
through this evening.

...NM/TX...
Current visible satellite imagery and surface analysis shows a
boundary extending from southeast NM into central TX. A very moist
and moderately unstable air mass is present along and south of this
boundary, along with mostly clear skies and steepening low level
lapse rates. Large scale forcing is weak across this region, but
most 12z CAM solutions show isolated thunderstorms developing near
the boundary by late afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings
suggest sufficient mid/upper level westerly flow for organized
multicell or occasional supercell structures capable of hail and
gusty winds.

..Hart.. 09/14/2023

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

[utpmg]

Anyone know where I can find the radar estimated rain for the last 7 days, including today?

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

[utpmg]

I feel bad for people in North Houston looks like most of the rain is going to be south of I-10.

Rough morning for the Houston and DFW metros so far (busts). Central to northern Austin metro is the big winner so far. SA metro was meh.

Not much in central Austin, mostly north of us.

[HoustonFrog]

I feel bad for people in North Houston looks like most of the rain is going to be south of I-10.

yeh especially because they've been forecasting higher amounts for North of I10. Sucks.

[Portastorm]

I feel bad for people in North Houston looks like most of the rain is going to be south of I-10.

Rough morning for the Houston and DFW metros so far (busts). Central to northern Austin metro is the big winner so far. SA metro was meh.

Not much in central Austin, mostly north of us.

Yes, far northern Travis County and southern Williamson County were the overnight winners in the rain derby. Cedar Park, Pflugerville, etc. Although one of our TV mets thinks CP had a downburst based on some home damage reported by viewers. In my far southern reaches of TravCo, I got a nothing burger. LOL.

[jasons2k]

Amazing. It’s finally raining and the storm is developing instead of falling apart!!

[HoustonFrog]

Amazing. It’s finally raining and the storm is developing instead of falling apart!!

No idea where you are, but same here in north Houston. Looked like big bag of nothing and now been pouring for 30 minutes.

[SoupBone]

Amazing. It’s finally raining and the storm is developing instead of falling apart!!

I see that cell to my NE, but it will not get to me. I'm west of I45 and it just can't seem to reach out here. But maybe I'll get lucky. It did sprinkle earlier.

[weatherdude1108]

Rough morning for the Houston and DFW metros so far (busts). Central to northern Austin metro is the big winner so far. SA metro was meh.

Not much in central Austin, mostly north of us.

Yes, far northern Travis County and southern Williamson County were the overnight winners in the rain derby. Cedar Park, Pflugerville, etc. Although one of our TV mets thinks CP had a downburst based on some home damage reported by viewers. In my far southern reaches of TravCo, I got a nothing burger. LOL.

That storm woke me up around 4am. Thunder scared my dog. I have a CoCoRaHS rain gauge, and the 1" tube topped over into the overflow tube. I'll need to measure it later (my first time owning one). Hasn't been that full since I got it. But, I for sure got more than 1" last night!

My yard is loving it. Sorry for the others around town. Seemed to be concentrated from Leander to north central Austin.

[Brent]

I remember when today was gonna be rain and 60s

It is neither. its been a much nicer week no doubt but stuff like this

I'm seeing talk of severe weather next week already but like yeah I'll believe it when I see it

[jasons2k]

Amazing. It’s finally raining and the storm is developing instead of falling apart!!

No idea where you are, but same here in north Houston. Looked like big bag of nothing and now been pouring for 30 minutes.

Imperial Oaks. I think I got about 1.5” so far - I’ll check after it’s completely gone. Glad you are getting some too!!

[Iceresistance]

I remember when today was gonna be rain and 60s

It is neither. its been a much nicer week no doubt but stuff like this

I'm seeing talk of severe weather next week already but like yeah I'll believe it when I see it

Saw this on the SPC:

Models show split flow over
the West evolving into a larger-scale trough potentially by midweek
next week. A more active pattern for severe may develop towards the
end of the extended period and focus over the Great Plains.

[SoupBone]

Amazing. It’s finally raining and the storm is developing instead of falling apart!!

No idea where you are, but same here in north Houston. Looked like big bag of nothing and now been pouring for 30 minutes.

Imperial Oaks. I think I got about 1.5” so far - I’ll check after it’s completely gone. Glad you are getting some too!!

I got about 5 minutes of rain. I'll take it, but that still doesn't make me happy. I guess it's enough to help the trees that haven't gotten water in months.

[mmmmsnouts]

Going from widespread 2-3" around DFW to maybe a quarter of an inch is a massive bust. In my opinion FWD is very good at predicting temperatures and setups for severe weather, but they really struggle to predict rainfall accurately, even in the short term.

They really made it worse for themselves by going out days in advance with the probability graphics of how much rain everyone could expect. They chide everyone about not sharing model runs on social media and then they basically do that exact thing.