SE TX weather thread #3 - windy and cooler Wednesday

[JenBayles]

Hey! Where'd everybody go today? Down to the Lone Star rally in Galveston?!

[Ptarmigan]

JB has said that he has been noticing a pattern this fall. As soon as things start to heat up again, the cold builds back. He said the same thing will happen this time too. This week will be generally warm across much of the nation east of the rockies, but the cold will be building up in western Canada. He then said that by the week after this one most of that same area of the U.S. should be back to or below normal temperature-wise. This means that things could get real interesting for us here in TX (and most other places) by the week of the 13th if his ideas hold up; and who-knows, but may be by Thanksgiving we will be right in the middle of another generally cool period. Wouldn't that be great?

In the meantime though, get ready for active weather Tomorrow through Tuesday, with the possibility of a severe MCS on Monday evening. Could get interesting...again...for SE Texas.

Aarrrrggghhh. Does this mean more heavy rain and flooding?

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB has said that he has been noticing a pattern this fall. As soon as things start to heat up again, the cold builds back. He said the same thing will happen this time too. This week will be generally warm across much of the nation east of the rockies, but the cold will be building up in western Canada. He then said that by the week after this one most of that same area of the U.S. should be back to or below normal temperature-wise. This means that things could get real interesting for us here in TX (and most other places) by the week of the 13th if his ideas hold up; and who-knows, but may be by Thanksgiving we will be right in the middle of another generally cool period. Wouldn't that be great?

In the meantime though, get ready for active weather Tomorrow through Tuesday, with the possibility of a severe MCS on Monday evening. Could get interesting...again...for SE Texas.

Aarrrrggghhh. Does this mean more heavy rain and flooding?

There is a possibility of some localized flooding from this, but the good news is that it looks to be fairly progressive and the latest forecasts end the rain by tomorrow afternoon. None the less, a strong MCS tonight/tomorrow could still lead to widespread 1-3" and localized 3-6" rain amounts. We will have to see how the situation unfolds overnight..

[KatDaddy]

Wish me and my family luck. We are traveling back home to League City from Dallas tomorrow. It looks to be a very rough travel day. Tonight we have rapidly moving isolated thunderstorm from the SW to NE.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wish me and my family luck. We are traveling back home to League City from Dallas tomorrow. It looks to be a very rough travel day. Tonight we have rapidly moving isolated thunderstorm from the SW to NE.

when are you leaving? If you leave just late enough, then you may end up trailing the heavy storms. They should be over by early afternoon for much of the Houston metro if the current forecast holds.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I officially cannot stand ABC 13 news's forecasts. The one tonight pretty much sealed the deal. They tend to always be way too warm. Take a look for yourself at the difference between themselves and the NWS:

NWS FORECAST:

Overnight: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday: Periods of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 76. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming northwest. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Monday Night: Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 58. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 77. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Clear, with a low around 53. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 79.

Wednesday Night: Clear, with a low around 61.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 80.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 64.

Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 80.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65.

ABC 13 FORECAST:

(this image should be disregarded after the morning of 11-6-06 due to a changing forecast at that time)

What an amazing difference, right? When the NWS forecasts 70s, they show 80s. And take a look at Tuesday night! The NWS is forecasting lower 50s and ABC 13 is forecasting lower 60s. That is about a 10F difference! Makes no sense to me..

BTW: Take a look at the ABC wind direction forecast too. They keep southerly winds throughout, yet the NWS shows a northerly direction Monday night through Wednesday. That is also pretty major difference.

[JenBayles]

Hey Extreme - have you looked at the NWS HGX forecast this morning? It's pretty much what you posted above! I did a double-take this morning when I saw the high temps 12 hours after fropa. Some front, huh?

[JenBayles]

<groan> I have to drive from the BC Dome down to almost Clear Lake this morning. Why is it I always pick the rainy days? From the looks of the radar it'll be a white-knuckled drive with idiot Houston drivers for a good two hours each way. Must have coffee....

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hey Extreme - have you looked at the NWS HGX forecast this morning? It's pretty much what you posted above! I did a double-take this morning when I saw the high temps 12 hours after fropa. Some front, huh?

yeah, they are now forecasting it a bit warmer at the NWS, but not quite as warm as ABC 13 showed last night. Last night they were forecasting a high in the lower 80s and a low of 62F for Tuesday and Tuesday night.

[Extremeweatherguy]

[TexasLady]

Whoa!! Now we are getting hammered, here in New Waverly. I'm keeping my fingers crossed to not lose the lights. The satellite keeps cutting in and out.

[Extremeweatherguy]

just foggy here right now, and no immediate threats of a strong storm from the radar, but as the morning progresses more storms should fire up over most of the area. Should get interesting..

BTW, 2 counties are under a Svr. T-storm warning right now:
MONTGOMERY
WALKER

Update: Just heard thunder. I wonder if a new storm cell is developing over me?

[JenBayles]

Lots of thunder rumbling around the Dome right now and a little light rain. Not really anything noteworthy on radar at the moment for my immediate area, so like you Extreme, am wondering if it's developing over my head. Not looking forward to driving to SE Houston around 8:30. Thinking I'd better wear the flood pants.

[KatDaddy]

Getting ready to leave Dallas and see we have alot of rain and storms to contend with on the drive home.

[TexasLady]

Hopefully, by the time you get to this area (Southernmost Walker County) on I-45, the storms will have calmed down. We have had very strong storms for the past couple of hours, here. Be careful! There is also high water reported in town...big town o' New Waverly...(laugh). But that is actually about a mile east of I-45.

[JenBayles]

Try to stay safe and dry KatDaddy!

[KatDaddy]

Thanks everyone. I am hoping we will make between storms today. The ongoing storms should be E of I-45 by the time we make it Huntsville. According to this mornings AFD more storms may fire this afternoon into this evening.

[JenBayles]

Not hardly a drop of rain from NW Houston, to SE Houston, and back again. Looking at the radar, not sure if the BC dome will hold much longer. We'll see.

[vbhoutex]

Looks like so far most of the rains have missed Houston metro to the N or the S. Radar, at this point doesn't show a lot of development to our NW, which is where it will more than likely come from next. Have we lucked out with this one? Stay tuned.

[Extremeweatherguy]

What I am most upset about today is the removal of the cold front for this coming weekend. Just yesterday the forecast dropped highs back down to near 70F by Sunday, but today the forecast is calling for lower 80s!>? Hopefully this will change...