Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

well looks like NWS Miami is backing off on the breaking down of the ridge....with only one or two days of temperatures around normal than becoming above normal again for the rest of next week:

AS SOUTH FLORIDA STAYS IN THE EASTERLY FLOW WHILE SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE, MID LATITUDE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE
ON AREA WX AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG
THE EAST COAST LOW TEMPS, AND OVER INTERIOR AND WEST COAST LOCATIONS
HIGH TEMPS WILL HAVE THE BIGGEST DISCREPANCIES FROM NORMAL.
FINALLY, BY VERY LATE IN THE COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
H5 RIDGE SLIDES EAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WEAK FRONT INTO S FL, HOWEVER
TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES OR POSSIBLY
AROUND NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE DEC FOR A DAY OR MAYBE TWO.

I also checked the 12Z ECMWF and it breaks down the H5 ridge even less for Mon-Tues...then quickly rebuilds an even stronger ridge from the Western Atlantic into the Eastern GOM and Florida out to 240 hours.

So as of now...forecast is still on track with a slight cooling for Mon.-Tues. across Florida to near normal temperatures but rebounding quickly to above normal through the rest of next week also. Winter is not coming back anytime soon for those that are hoping for cold weather for the holidays in Florida.

[jinftl]

I can see it now....top headline on Channel 7..."Chill returns to South Florida for Christmas, High Temps only in the mid-70s, stay tuned for update on how people are coping until warm-up on friday"

well looks like NWS Miami is backing off on the breaking down of the ridge....with only one or two days of temperatures around normal than becoming above normal again for the rest of next week:

AS SOUTH FLORIDA STAYS IN THE EASTERLY FLOW WHILE SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE, MID LATITUDE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE
ON AREA WX AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG
THE EAST COAST LOW TEMPS, AND OVER INTERIOR AND WEST COAST LOCATIONS
HIGH TEMPS WILL HAVE THE BIGGEST DISCREPANCIES FROM NORMAL.
FINALLY, BY VERY LATE IN THE COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
H5 RIDGE SLIDES EAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WEAK FRONT INTO S FL, HOWEVER
TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES OR POSSIBLY
AROUND NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE DEC FOR A DAY OR MAYBE TWO.

I also checked the 12Z ECMWF and it breaks down the H5 ridge even less for Mon-Tues...then quickly rebuilds an even stronger ridge from the Western Atlantic into the Eastern GOM and Florida out to 240 hours.

So as of now...forecast is still on track with a slight cooling for Mon.-Tues. across Florida to near normal temperatures but rebounding quickly to above normal through the rest of next week also. Winter is not coming back anytime soon for those that are hoping for cold weather for the holidays in Florida.

[tropicana]

sooooo lucky! sooo soo lucky! Florida rocks!

-justin-

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Warm and tropical today.

[jinftl]

FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP (TEMPERATURE)
300 PM EST WED DEC 17 2008

PENSACOLA 73
CRESTVIEW 78
APALACHICOLA 73
TALLAHASSEE 78
PERRY 80
GAINESVILLE 79
JACKSONVILLE 79
ORLANDO INTL 77
DAYTONA BEACH 76
MELBOURNE 74
CLEARWATER 81
TAMPA 76
ST PETERSBURG 78
FT MYERS 80
KEY WEST 79
W PALM BEACH 77
FT LAUDERDALE 80 (high so far = 81)
MIAMI 77 (high so far = 82)

[HURRICANELONNY]

I HOPE IT FREEZES AROUND CHRISTMAS

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I HOPE IT FREEZES AROUND CHRISTMAS

Looking at the long-range patterns, the coldest it may get is the 40s in central
Florida Inland, and 50s near the central florida coast and in south florida. Sorry
no freeze

[jinftl]

Not a citrus or vegetable farmer i gather?



Actually, Miami and Fort Lauderdale (official reporting stations) have yet to drop below 50 deg yet this season....going to take a heck of a front if we are going to see a freeze that far south. About 8 weeks or so for that to have a possibility of happening.

Today's CPC Temp Outlook through the end of the year...normal to above normal temps

I HOPE IT FREEZES AROUND CHRISTMAS

[gatorcane]

Actually, Miami and Fort Lauderdale (official reporting stations) have yet to drop below 50 deg yet this season....going to take a heck of a front if we are going to see a freeze that far south. About 8 weeks or so for that to have a possibility of happening.

Indeed we still have January and February but starting in March there is virtually no chance of a freeze in Southern Florida. Southern Florida's "winter" runs from Dec. 1st through the last day of Feb -- just a short 3 months. The first month is over in roughly 10 days.

Still the long-wave pattern can certainly change drastically within an 8 week span and I expect another shift to troughiness in the east to take place sometime in the early to mid January time-frame

[jinftl]

Agree....not to say it can't get cold from Feb 20 and later....but if it does, generally it is either: 1) not as intense as potential cold snaps from December-mid Feb, or 2) the rebound is even quicker than usual. By mid to late Feb, the days are getting longer, the sun angle is increasing....it generally becomes less likely for a serious cold event. Always some outlier events, but historically, we have about 8 or 9 weeks of potential 'damaging' cold snaps left in south florida.

Very rare to see temps not drop below 50 in miami during any winter so no doubt there are cold snaps of varying intensity to come in the next few months. From as early as late October through the first half of December we were in a 'cold pattern'....now we are seeing the flip side of that with a ridge shielding us from fronts right now.

It will be interesting to see if December 2008 ends up warmer in Miami than November 2008 was. So far, the avg temp in December is 1.9 deg lower than November's (69.9 vs 71.8)....but Miami is making up ground very fast....the average temp for the first 3 days of December was only 63.3!!! Another week of temps like now will bring it close to the November avg.

Not unprecedented at all...in fact just 2 years ago, November 2006 averaged 73.0 deg and December 2006 averaged 74.4 deg in Miami...makes you wonder if colder late fall temps mean warmer winter months?

Actually, Miami and Fort Lauderdale (official reporting stations) have yet to drop below 50 deg yet this season....going to take a heck of a front if we are going to see a freeze that far south. About 8 weeks or so for that to have a possibility of happening.

Indeed we still have January and February but starting in March there is virtually no chance of a freeze in Southern Florida. Southern Florida's "winter" runs from Dec. 1st through the last day of Feb -- just a short 3 months. The first month is over in roughly 10 days.

Still the long-wave pattern can certainly change drastically within an 8 week span and I expect another shift to troughiness in the east to take place sometime in the early to mid January time-frame

[Extremeweatherguy]

Today's 18z GFS continues to show a cool Christmas for Florida with a nice northerly breeze blowing down the peninsula by the afternoon:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif

If this run is correct, then highs on Christmas Day would likely be in the 40s/50s for north Florida, 50s/60s for central Florida and 60s/70s for south Florida.

[JonathanBelles]

Today's 18z GFS continues to show a cool Christmas for Florida with a nice northerly breeze blowing down the peninsula by the afternoon:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif

If this run is correct, then highs on Christmas Day would likely be in the 40s/50s for north Florida, 50s/60s for central Florida and 60s/70s for south Florida.

SOLD!!! Its much better than this 80's crapola we have now.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yes colder air will move in Monday. I'll be in India, but yall enjoy that.
A second cold front will move in by Wednesday, christmas eve, reinforcing
the cooler air in place. This may bring a strong cold snap. Accuweather
10 day outlooks pointing to highs in the low 60s here and
lows of 40-45*F. In north florida- expect highs in the 50s and
lows in the upper 20s to low 30s christmas day.
South Florida high 70, low 40-45 interior, 55 near the coast,
depending on the strength of next weeks noreaster, this cold
snap has the potential to be the coolest of the season so far.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Pattern change. YES! No AC!

[jinftl]

What Accuweather are you looking at….might be older version. Current version shows the following...extended forecasts flip flop as we know!

Orlando
12/24 = 75/56
12/25 = 73/49
12/26 = 69/50
12/27 = 70/53
12/28 = 77/57
12/29 = 78/59
12/30 = 77/60
12/31 = 79/59
http://www.accuweather.com/us/fl/orlando/32801/forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=1&zipChg=1&metric=0

Tampa
12/24 = 75/56
12/25 = 75/46
12/26 = 69/46
12/27 = 72/51
12/28 = 78/55
12/29 = 76/56
12/30 = 78/58
12/31 = 79/56

http://www.accuweather.com/us/fl/tampa/33601/forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=1&metric=0


Miami
12/24 = 79/64
12/25 = 78/61
12/26 = 76/60
12/27 = 77/61
12/28 = 79/65
12/29 = 79/66
12/30 = 81/67
12/31 = 82/66
http://www.accuweather.com/us/fl/miami/33101/forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=1&zipChg=1&metric=0

Yes colder air will move in Monday. I'll be in India, but yall enjoy that.
A second cold front will move in by Wednesday, christmas eve, reinforcing
the cooler air in place. This may bring a strong cold snap. Accuweather
10 day outlooks pointing to highs in the low 60s here and
lows of 40-45*F. In north florida- expect highs in the 50s and
lows in the upper 20s to low 30s christmas day.
South Florida high 70, low 40-45 interior, 55 near the coast,
depending on the strength of next weeks noreaster, this cold
snap has the potential to be the coolest of the season so far.

[Scorpion]

I guess this is what we get for a cold November

[jinftl]

Not sure if there is anything to it..but it seems that when we have a cool Autumn...generally Oct/Nov, the winter months turn out warmer than normal...happened in 2006.

November 2008 was below normal...December started out that way but is quickly eating away at the below normal. After being 7 deg below normal for the month-to-date on 12/3, Miami is now only 0.5 deg below normal as of 12/17. Expect that to go slightly above normal for the month to date by the weekend.

I guess this is what we get for a cold November

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF just out -- shows a weak frontal boundary passing south down the peninsula of Florida with a wind shift to the north and slightly cooler temps at 96-120 hour timeframe (Mon.) but continues to be more aggressive with a subtropical ridge rebuilding westward from the Western Atlantic...out through 192 hours then getting supressed therafter -- however the mid-lattitude flow is generally zonal beyond 120 hours.....

all of this continues to point at a 1-2 days of slighly cooler temperatures for Southern Florida and return to above normal temperatures the rest of the week, looking generally warm for Christmas with highs in the upper 70s to around 80F for Christmas Eve Day.

It's looking like a good beach day for Christmas Eve Day (and probably Christmas Day) here in Southern Florida....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What Accuweather are you looking at….might be older version. Current version shows the following...extended forecasts flip flop as we know!

Orlando
12/24 = 75/56
12/25 = 73/49
12/26 = 69/50
12/27 = 70/53
12/28 = 77/57
12/29 = 78/59
12/30 = 77/60
12/31 = 79/59
http://www.accuweather.com/us/fl/orlando/32801/forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=1&zipChg=1&metric=0

Tampa
12/24 = 75/56
12/25 = 75/46
12/26 = 69/46
12/27 = 72/51
12/28 = 78/55
12/29 = 76/56
12/30 = 78/58
12/31 = 79/56

http://www.accuweather.com/us/fl/tampa/33601/forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=1&metric=0


Miami
12/24 = 79/64
12/25 = 78/61
12/26 = 76/60
12/27 = 77/61
12/28 = 79/65
12/29 = 79/66
12/30 = 81/67
12/31 = 82/66
http://www.accuweather.com/us/fl/miami/33101/forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=1&zipChg=1&metric=0

Yes colder air will move in Monday. I'll be in India, but yall enjoy that.
A second cold front will move in by Wednesday, christmas eve, reinforcing
the cooler air in place. This may bring a strong cold snap. Accuweather
10 day outlooks pointing to highs in the low 60s here and
lows of 40-45*F. In north florida- expect highs in the 50s and
lows in the upper 20s to low 30s christmas day.
South Florida high 70, low 40-45 interior, 55 near the coast,
depending on the strength of next weeks noreaster, this cold
snap has the potential to be the coolest of the season so far.

Whoa! That is a big change...when I entered saint petersburg it was showing real-feel
temperatures plummetting to freezing. This updated forecast is much warmer. Yes
they have definitely upgraded the temperatures, but it might flip again, or not

[tropicana]

Jacksonville FL reached a record high of 81F today, which tied 1990.

Among other of the warm spots today, though not records :
Naples 80F, Ft Myers 80F, Tallahassee 80F, Orlando 81F, Punta Gorda 82F, Sarasota 83F (warmest spot of FL that i could find)

-justin-