Texas Spring 2020

[TheProfessor]

The next couple of weeks look to be active over the eastern U.S, though some of the heaviest rains may stay east of Texas if the NAO trend negative, but CPC is already highlighting a potential severe weather threat next week on the 22nd-23rd for Texas and Louisiana.

Dude, points east of Texas almost always get more rain lol what’s new.

CPC is forecasting rain for above the normal(fairly high percentages for this too.), yes they usually get more rain, but we could be looking at a situation where widespread flooding is a problem. Further more right now the NAO forecast has a ton of uncertainty and if it decides to go positive over the next couple of weeks that heavy rain and flooding could become a Texas problem.

[aggiecutter]

For those who care, this is an interesting video on potential severe weather for the next month:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiiw5mz-1qs

[bubba hotep]

Wetter than normal May?

[South Texas Storms]

Wetter than normal May?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVu3w1LXkAAd88y?format=jpg&name=900x900

Yep that's looking likely right now based on the latest long range trends. Euro Weeklies, which have been performing pretty well for several months now, continue to indicate a wet weather pattern returning the first week of May. Let's hope south TX can cash in on it since they are still in drought.

[captainbarbossa19]

The next couple of weeks look to be active over the eastern U.S, though some of the heaviest rains may stay east of Texas if the NAO trend negative, but CPC is already highlighting a potential severe weather threat next week on the 22nd-23rd for Texas and Louisiana.

Dude, points east of Texas almost always get more rain lol what’s new.

CPC is forecasting rain for above the normal(fairly high percentages for this too.), yes they usually get more rain, but we could be looking at a situation where widespread flooding is a problem. Further more right now the NAO forecast has a ton of uncertainty and if it decides to go positive over the next couple of weeks that heavy rain and flooding could become a Texas problem.

It does seem like about the time everyone is complaining about a lack of rain, a flood arrives and people beg for it to stop. It's almost always feast or famine in Texas.

[gpsnowman]

The cold front is on the way. Will be a chilly afternoon in DFW. 44° in Wichita Falls and 38° in OKC. April is the new January.

[Ntxw]

April chill continues and for the northern tier of the state has really clamped down on severe weather/copious rains of the past few Aprils. This will likely continue until the end of the month. Severe weather alley right now is downwind of the Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf states basically.

PDO has fallen negative. We're still reaping some benefits from the subtle Nino of the past few months (ONI will qualify next month). We've received enough rainfall to prevent 2020 from becoming an extreme drought year. However if the PDO trend continues (all good things must come to an end) then we'll likely be looking at some dry years ahead.

[weatherdude1108]

The next two weeks look drier than normal for a good chunk of the state. Gets back to normal and above normal for weeks three and four (taken with a grain of salt).

[cheezyWXguy]

18z NAM seems to be changing its tune for dfw tomorrow. Now shows some stronger storms in the area at 13z. Decent amount of elevated instability makes me think these would be a hail threat if the were to actually verify.

[bubba hotep]

HRRR picking it up as well, SPC might pull the Slight back towards DFW.

[bubba hotep]

HRRR picking it up as well, SPC might pull the Slight back towards DFW.

Ha! First time that I have ever guessed the SPC, usually those guesses result in embarrassment lol

[cheezyWXguy]

HRRR picking it up as well, SPC might pull the Slight back towards DFW.

Ha! First time that I have ever guessed the SPC, usually those guesses result in embarrassment lol

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/TX_swody1.png

Good call. The nam and hrrr are still inconsistent with the cell locations, but definitely have pulled back west enough to warrant the expansion imo

Glad we won’t be experiencing more than a taste of what’s going on east of us though. There were a lot rumors of this going to a high risk for MS and AL. Hopefully the upcoming models don’t warrant that increase tomorrow for them.

[TheProfessor]

Mesoscale Discussion 0401
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

Areas affected...portions of central and southeastern TX into far
western LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 191222Z - 191415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will increase through the morning
from central into southeastern Texas. Very large hail, a few
tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are all possible. A tornado watch
will likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Elevated convection is increasing this morning across
portions of central TX with large-scale ascent increasing as a
shortwave trough begins to eject eastward from NM into western TX.
Initial convection will likely remain elevated for a couple of hours
until stronger heating after sunrise allows surface inhibition to
erode and as a warm front draped across the area continues to lift
northward. Nevertheless, very steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5
C/km) are contributing to MUCAPE values around 2000 J/kg per 12z
mesoanalysis and the 12z FWD RAOB. Effective shear is sufficient for
storm organization currently, and will continue to improve over the
next few hours. Large hail (some potentially greater than 2 inches
in diameter) will be the main concern in the immediate near-term,
especially with any discrete cells.

With time, convection will become surface-based as it approaches far
eastern TX and the Sabine River Valley late this morning. As this
occurs, an increasing threat for tornadoes and damaging winds will
accompany convection. While low level hodographs will become
enlarged by late morning into the afternoon, deep-layer winds are
rather unidirectional above 3km. This could result in storm
interactions and clustering toward midday, with a mix of
semi-discrete cells and clusters/bowing segments. As such, all
severe hazards are anticipated and some locations could see more
than one round of severe storms.

..Leitman/Hart.. 04/19/2020

[TheProfessor]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 120
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
840 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western Louisiana
East Texas
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 840 AM until
300 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify this morning
across east Texas and spread across the watch area through the
afternoon. Large hail is the primary threat this morning. But
increasing winds aloft will promote a risk of tornadoes by early
afternoon.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles
east and west of a line from 20 miles north of Shreveport LA to 55
miles southeast of Angleton TX. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

[TheProfessor]

Pretty high probabilities in this watch.

[bubba hotep]

[cheezyWXguy]

Seeing some storms popping in sw tarrant county. I don’t think these really showed up in the short range models

Edit: now severe warned for half dollar size hail. Headed to ft worth then carrolton

[bubba hotep]

That escalated quickly

[EnnisTx]

That escalated quickly

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EV-dMKPU4AoWZjT?format=jpg&name=small

Both of those storms split me right down the Center..

[bubba hotep]

Looks like that one cell missed the big airport to the south.