STORM2K

GFS is still the better of the models for a cooldown couple of days to close the month with the brief reshuffle of the Pac NW at 500mb. When saying cool down talking back to normal values for June. The lower level thermal ridge is still hanging around especially the drought areas so it will remain elevated but may overtake the region again, analogs package suggest a return to heat the beginning of July.

The GFS looks terrible. Im here in TX for another week, been here since early June, and I dont miss these summers at all. The most obvious summer is 2011, when we had crazy heat and drought, but i'm curious how this compares to 1993. I remember that summer being very very miserable. I believe that '93 was a nino year as well. Any other strong similarities? GFS just looks so hopeless. Hoping we can crack this heat wave soon.

Cpv17 wrote:Models are showing some sort vorticity moving from east to west across the Gulf around late this coming weekend or into the beginning part of next week.

They are showing it again today. 12z Euro and CMC both show something in the Gulf near the Texas coast next week.

This is the most boring June I can ever remember in South Central TX. Great pool weather I guess

El Nino summers are more fun.

NWS going bullish on their weekend forecast for heat. Surprisingly DFW and Houston NWS are going hotter than their central TX counterparts. 105+ for DFW and 103+ for Houston.

Galveston is on some wild streak of 80F+ lows. Only 2 days in June have recorded lows under 80 thus far. 16 days consecutive ongoing.

Mid 90s early next week after air mass shift will feel cold .

WeatherBug has a HIGH of 82 here on Monday after a high of 100 Saturday. We had some lows around that last week. If that verifies I may have to find my coat

Until that point yeah it's ugly. Today was our "nicest day" and it was still way too hot

Ntxw wrote:NWS going bullish on their weekend forecast for heat. Surprisingly DFW and Houston NWS are going hotter than their central TX counterparts. 105+ for DFW and 103+ for Houston.

Galveston is on some wild streak of 80F+ lows. Only 2 days in June have recorded lows under 80 thus far. 16 days consecutive ongoing.

Mid 90s early next week after air mass shift will feel cold .

Looks like records are safe - Summer of 1980 records start showing up after today, and no way we'll hit those (hopefully). Maybe some record high minimums this weekend with the UHI.

That's the one thing which was so interesting about the Summer of 1980. For as insanely hot as it was, only 3 record high minimums still stand. Of course DFW was a lot smaller 42 years ago, and not nearly the concrete and steel that we have now.

Happy first day of Summer.

Edwards Limestone wrote:This is the most boring June I can ever remember in South Central TX. Great pool weather I guess

El Nino summers are more fun.

Here in Austin, we're easily on our way to recording to hottest June in history. Unfortunately.

Portastorm wrote:

Edwards Limestone wrote:This is the most boring June I can ever remember in South Central TX. Great pool weather I guess

El Nino summers are more fun.

Here in Austin, we're easily on our way to recording to hottest June in history. Unfortunately.

The same is true here in SE Texas. We are on pace to easily beat 2011. I hope we get some rain because in August of 2011, Bush Airport hit 100 degrees every day except for one and there were dead trees everywhere. With all the fires it was like the apocalypse in places, especially Bastrop. I don't to see anything like that ever again!!

jasons2k wrote:

Portastorm wrote:

Edwards Limestone wrote:This is the most boring June I can ever remember in South Central TX. Great pool weather I guess

El Nino summers are more fun.

Here in Austin, we're easily on our way to recording to hottest June in history. Unfortunately.

The same is true here in SE Texas. We are on pace to easily beat 2011. I hope we get some rain because in August of 2011, Bush Airport hit 100 degrees every day except for one and there were dead trees everywhere. With all the fires it was like the apocalypse in places, especially Bastrop. I don't to see anything like that ever again!!

Not only that but June's average right now for both sites are good enough or on pace to be a top 5 July or August comparison. Continuity has been the theme for the heat. A similar pattern in July and/or August could yield =>88F - 90F average, which are held mostly by 2011.

If I'm not mistaken Austin just had its warmest May on record and Houston 2nd warmest.

jasons2k wrote:

Portastorm wrote:

Edwards Limestone wrote:This is the most boring June I can ever remember in South Central TX. Great pool weather I guess

El Nino summers are more fun.

Here in Austin, we're easily on our way to recording to hottest June in history. Unfortunately.

The same is true here in SE Texas. We are on pace to easily beat 2011. I hope we get some rain because in August of 2011, Bush Airport hit 100 degrees every day except for one and there were dead trees everywhere. With all the fires it was like the apocalypse in places, especially Bastrop. I don't to see anything like that ever again!!

It is close, but 1902 was a really hot year. My area featured 8 consecutive days of 102 or higher for the high with 106 being the hottest temperature. That is also the record high for all Junes. Haven't had temperatures that hot yet at my location. So far, it has peaked around 100, but this weekend it might be 102 or 103.

Ntxw wrote:

jasons2k wrote:

Portastorm wrote:
Here in Austin, we're easily on our way to recording to hottest June in history. Unfortunately.

The same is true here in SE Texas. We are on pace to easily beat 2011. I hope we get some rain because in August of 2011, Bush Airport hit 100 degrees every day except for one and there were dead trees everywhere. With all the fires it was like the apocalypse in places, especially Bastrop. I don't to see anything like that ever again!!

Not only that but June's average right now for both sites are good enough or on pace to be a top 5 July or August comparison. Continuity has been the theme for the heat. A similar pattern in July and/or August could yield =>88F - 90F average, which are held mostly by 2011.

If I'm not mistaken Austin just had its warmest May on record and Houston 2nd warmest.

Yes. Our "Summer" started in May.
I would guess a lot of pools around here are at (or very close) to bathtub water temperatures. I took a jog this morning around 5am. It was 81 degrees. I think it finally bottomed out at 78 before sun-up. That is like a hot August.

Please God! I'm rooting for the GFS. Anything is better than this um, ridiculousness we've been experiencing. I have other words for it in my head I could use, but I'll keep it clean. Not worth it.lol

000
FXUS64 KEWX 211921
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
221 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

Partly cloudy skies are expected to remain across the area with
highs reaching the upper 90s across the Hill Country and up to 102
degrees over a few locations across the Rio Grande and coastal
plains this afternoon. Latest satellite images are showing the sea
breeze pushing across the coastal plains as of this writing. Some
hires models suggest for pop up showers to develop mainly along and
east of Highway 281 including the I-35 corridor later this
afternoon. It is difficult to pin point the locations of this shower
activity as the combination of heat, humidity and lift takes place.
The fact is that some people may get lucky with a passing shower
while the rest will get nothing. Otherwise, dry and warm for this
evening into Wednesday with clouds returning overnight across areas
along and east of Interstate 35. Lows are forecast to be around the
mid 70s areawide.

Dry and hot weather conditions continue on Wednesday with highs in
the upper 90s across the Hill Country and up to 102 degrees across
the coastal plains. Heat index values are forecast to range from 102
to 107 along and east of Interstate 35. A new episode of Saharan
Dust is expected for Wednesday and therefore, the sky is expected to
look hazy as dust particles linger across the local area. As far as
chances for showers on Wednesday, less than 10 percent. However, a
slight chance for showers is possible just to the south of our local
area toward the middle Texas coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

The center of the upper level ridge will be over Texas Thursday and
remain there Friday. This will keep dry weather in place over our
CWA. It will even suppress most seabreeze showers over our Coastal
Plains counties. It will also allow temperatures to increase a few
degrees for the latter part of the week. Nearly all of the CWA will
have highs above 100 by Friday with this heat continuing over the
weekend. Monday a weak cold front will move through Central Texas and
into our CWA. This bring low chances for showers and thunderstorms
Monday and Monday night. The GFS is also showing cooler temperatures
Monday, but the blended guidance has not picked up on the cooling.
For now we will side with the blend and only have temps a few degrees
cooler.

Ensembles are raising an eyebrow for the WCAB/Gulf in the longer range.

bubba hotep wrote:Ensembles are raising an eyebrow for the WCAB/Gulf in the longer range.

What's also interesting is that the majority of members with a more northern component show mostly hurricane intensity. I have to wonder about this although there are anomalies like Dennis and the 1933 Trinidad Hurricane.

captainbarbossa19 wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Ensembles are raising an eyebrow for the WCAB/Gulf in the longer range.

What's also interesting is that the majority of members with a more northern component show mostly hurricane intensity. I have to wonder about this although there are anomalies like Dennis and the 1933 Trinidad Hurricane.

Yes, because the stronger the storm the more poleward motion it’ll have. That’s why the strongest members have a northerly component.

Cpv17 wrote:

captainbarbossa19 wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Ensembles are raising an eyebrow for the WCAB/Gulf in the longer range.

What's also interesting is that the majority of members with a more northern component show mostly hurricane intensity. I have to wonder about this although there are anomalies like Dennis and the 1933 Trinidad Hurricane.

Yes, because the stronger the storm the more poleward motion it’ll have. That’s why the strongest members have a northerly component.

Sort of, but it’s not that stronger systems automatically have more poleward motion. In this case its less land interaction/more time over warm water. Those are conducive for stronger systems which are guided more by upper level steering.

Nederlander wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
What's also interesting is that the majority of members with a more northern component show mostly hurricane intensity. I have to wonder about this although there are anomalies like Dennis and the 1933 Trinidad Hurricane.

Yes, because the stronger the storm the more poleward motion it’ll have. That’s why the strongest members have a northerly component.

Sort of, but it’s not that stronger systems automatically have more poleward motion. In this case its less land interaction/more time over warm water. Those are conducive for stronger systems which are guided more by upper level steering.

Yep, that is correct!

the GFS has highs in the 70s here Monday... what I'd give for that to verify

Otherwise yeah it does look like the only other story is the tropics may be waking up soon