Texas Spring 2023

[Brent]

Breaking News we have lightning!!

[Iceresistance]

Breaking News we have lightning!!

And we have a literal rain train setting up from Texas to Arkansas! It's especially notable along and south of I-44 from Lawton to Joplin.

[Cpv17]

Breaking News we have lightning!!

And we have a literal rain train setting up from Texas to Arkansas! It's especially notable along and south of I-44 from Lawton to Joplin.

It would be nice if the jet stream would dip further south. Been about a month now since we’ve had any rain down here.

[Iceresistance]

Breaking News we have lightning!!

And we have a literal rain train setting up from Texas to Arkansas! It's especially notable along and south of I-44 from Lawton to Joplin.

It would be nice if the jet stream would dip further south. Been about a month now since we’ve had any rain down here.

Yeah, I had 2 inches of rain her hour (current total is 1.3 inches at my house, but parts of Tulsa got 1.8 inches)

It appears that parts of Texas has serious rainfall potential with the amount of moisture, but there is nothing for the moisture to collide with!

[Yukon Cornelius]

1.44” overnight

[TropicalTundra]

The good news is the plants that died during some of the heavy freezes we had during winter are now growing back. My yard looked like a crime scene for a while.

Bad news is now wasps are back and are as aggressive as ever. Stung twice while cutting grass. They are still usually hibernating until early April and are generally docile until late summer

[Iceresistance]

The good news is the plants that died during some of the heavy freezes we had during winter are now growing back. My yard looked like a crime scene for a while.

Bad news is now wasps are back and are as aggressive as ever. Stung twice while cutting grass. They are still usually hibernating until early April and are generally docile until late summer

This is one of the reasons why I hate wasps...

[Iceresistance]

Is anyone in Northern DFW getting storms?

[Texas Snowman]

Is anyone in Northern DFW getting storms?

We’ve been pounded here in Denison this evening. Lightning, thunder, torrential rainfall and my backyard is flooded.

Right at two inches for the day.

[Iceresistance]

Is anyone in Northern DFW getting storms?

We’ve been pounded here in Denison this evening. Lightning, thunder, torrential rainfall and my backyard is flooded.

Right at two inches for the day.

Glad you got the rain! Y'all need it to get rid of the drought!

Looks like I'm going to get the fun later tonight.

I haven't emptied the rain gauge since we're still under the same storm system.

[Brent]

It was a dreary cool day here. We'll be wishing for one of these days before long..

[Texas Snowman]

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
232 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2023

TXC181-091030-
/O.CON.KFWD.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230309T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Grayson TX-
232 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM CST EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR SOUTHERN GRAYSON COUNTY...

At 232 AM CST, emergency management reported flash flooding in
Gunter and Howe with multiple impassable roads due to high water.
Flash flooding is imminent or already occurring.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Emergency management reported.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets, and underpasses as well as other poor
drainage and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Sherman, Celina, Van Alstyne, Howe, Collinsville, Whitewright,
Gunter, Bells, Tom Bean, Savoy, Dorchester, Valley Lake, Tioga,
Farmington, Elmont, Luella, White Mound, Ida and Cannon.

The heaviest rain has ended for most of the warning area, however it
will take several hours for flood waters to recede.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads! Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3359 9694 3363 9638 3340 9639 3340 9649
3340 9655 3340 9657 3340 9663 3340 9666
3340 9672 3340 9677 3340 9681 3341 9683
3341 9684 3341 9687 3341 9688 3342 9694
3349 9694

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

[Cpv17]

It was a dreary cool day here. We'll be wishing for one of these days before long..

Not here lol it’s been in the low to mid 80’s all week down here with lows in the upper 60’s.

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 091133
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
533 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 337 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2023

Conditions have largely remained in the persistence realm this
evening with the overall synoptic pattern continuing to promote a
steady onshore flow regime and thus the continued development of
radiation fog and widespread stratus. Tonight`s 3AM observations are
effectively identical to last night`s with many locations beginning
to indicate visibilities dropping below a mile. As such, we`ll need
to monitor for the possibility of a Dense Fog Advisory over the next
3 hours or so. Lingering fog may impact the morning commute along
and south of I-10, especially along the immediate coast. Visibility
should improve with the advent of daytime heating by around 9 AM,
though fog may continue to sit around just offshore (see Marine
section below). Not much in the way of change to the forecast for
this afternoon as breaking clouds, continued WAA, and midlevel
ridging allow for highs to reach the low to mid 80s yet again. While
it`s unlikely that we will exceed any records, it nonetheless
remains solidly warmer than seasonal norms.

Short term models continue to depict the approach of a slow-moving
cold frontal boundary that currently sits over the Dallas/Fort Worth
area. As this boundary gradually sags south throughout the course of
the day on Thursday and enters into our area on Thursday night/early
Friday, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase along and
north of the I-10 corridor. Rainfall chances will be highest between
approximately midnight and 6 AM Friday for these locations, although
heavy rain is not anticipated. A (relatively) stronger storm or two
cannot be completely ruled out, but we do not anticipate a severe
weather threat at this time. Still some variance within short term
models as to exactly where the front will stall out, but consensus
appears to be just south of I-10. A brief northerly wind shift is
expected behind the front, which will keep temperatures a bit cooler
on Friday for those locations in its wake (mid 60s in the far north
to mid 70s in the metro).

This pattern shift will be short lived as the front washes out
overnight on Friday afternoon/evening, with the area quickly
returning to an onshore flow pattern. As such, most locations should
see lows in the 60s on Friday night/Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2023

The long term forecast continues to trend more towards fair
weather - first because one chance of rain has slipped into the
short term, but also because rain chances in the area appear to
be dwindling on the Sunday/Monday front in the area. The
optimistic guidance has precipitable water progged to be only
around 1.3 inches, with most falling between there and 1 inch.
Now, to be fair, this is still above seasonal average, but strong
and persistent west/southwest flow in the 700-850 mb layer is
likely to build out a stout cap, easily "out-extreming" the
moisture profile. Outside of some stray sub-cap showers, it`s now
looking more likely that we`ll wait until late next week for our
next chance of more organized rain potential.

So, what do y`all want to talk about until then? How do
temperatures sound? After an anemic frontal passage (at best), we
should rebound back to warmth quickly after onshore flow reasserts
its dominance over the area. Highs on Saturday look to climb into
the 80s for all but the immediate Gulf Coast, with mid-80s
expected just a little bit inland on the coastal plain. Sunday
looks even toastier in that warm band, with highs pushing into the
upper 80s. Some 90 degree temps are still on the table as median
NBM highs there are still in the lower 90s.

However, I`m less confident in explicitly forecasting record highs
(and instead just hanging out in their vicinity) there, and even
in getting big heat up north at all, where I`ve continued last
night`s trend of pushing spots from Caldwell northwest to Crockett
down into the 70s. The main thing continues to be the slow creep
of a quicker cold front on Sunday. It`s now looking more likely
that highs will get cut off up north - and while we`ll likely
still see a pre-frontal temperature spike as we always do closer
to the Gulf, I feel more and more comfortable holding my highs
below 90 degrees. That`s not to say it can`t happen - I`m actually
taking a bit of a middle path, warmer than the deterministic NBM,
but still counter to the NBM probabilistic distribution, which
suggests a 40 percent chance of hitting 90 as far north as Conroe,
and up to a 70 percent chance of reaching 90 at Hobby.

So what`s a person to take away from this? There is very high
confidence of Sunday heat that will be near record values near the
coast, but far enough away from the Gulf to largely escape its
moderating effect. And though the single most likely outcome that
I have in my deterministic forecast here is in the upper 80s, the
potential to go higher than that is pretty high, and we should not
be surprised if temps were to soar above 90 in the Houston metro
and/or neighboring rural areas to the southwest.

The scenario I`m envisioning here to really fire the torch up
would be to have a front in the College Station or Huntsville area
in the mid-afternoon at the hottest part of the day, but capped
enough to prevent showers and storms from developing. This may
keep sky cover in the 40-50 percent range, allowing plenty of sun
through, and veer winds westerly enough to keep winds offshore and
slightly hotter through that modest bit of compressional heating
we tend to see with those winds. You can tell that`s several
moving parts, and why I`ve held off on explicitly forecasting so
hot...but it`s also easy to see how this hot scenario can play
out.

Once the front pushes through, though, we should see colder air
push into the area. It`s not going to be exceptionally cold - with
the main upper trough pushing into the Mid-Atlantic, the coldest
air behind this front will be far to our northeast. But, we`ll
catch enough of the incoming cold air to see temperatures knocked
back down closer to seasonal averages for roughly the first half
of next week.

Wednesday will start to signal the cycle beginning anew, though.
Surface high pressure by then will have drifted far enough east to
see the return of onshore flow, and ridging aloft will allow for a
good, mostly sunny/partly cloudy kind of day to see temperatures
push back into the upper half of the 70s for most of Southeast
Texas. Meanwhile, we`ll be looking for lee cyclogenesis in the
Central Plains to begin spinning up a new low pressure center, and
a new cold front we can look to push into our area towards the end
of the week, bringing our next shot for showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 530 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2023

MVFR to IFR conditions will continue to prevail for the next
several hours, as some areas of fog remain in place across the
region while widespread low stratus continues to produce cigs of
400-1000ft. Conditions should gradually improve with the advent of
daytime heating after sunrise, and VFR conditions are expected as
cigs scatter this afternoon. Tonight, another round of fog and
low stratus will develop along the immediate coast. Further north,
a cold front will approach the area, and showers/thunderstorms
will develop along the boundary beginning at approximately 07Z at
CLL and gradually sagging southward through the overnight hours.
Precipitation does not look likely south of IAH. Given uncertainty
regarding rainfall coverage, have only included VC wording for
now. This may need to be refined in subsequent updates.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2023

Fog remains the name of the game early this morning - though
tonight`s sea fog has been more variable, it is still dense for
stretches on the nearshore Gulf waters, mainly around Galveston
Bay. As long as we see these conditions with humid air holding
dewpoints above water temperatures and light, onshore winds, we
can expect at least some patchy fog to continue in the nighttime
and morning hours. A weak front will approach from the north
tonight into Friday morning, but little impact to the weather
on the waters is anticipated as it is expected to be rapidly
weakening on its approach to the coast. There is uncertainty as
to whether or not the front will even progress far enough south to
push offshore before stalling.

If the front pushes through, winds will briefly turn offshore and
sea fog potential will temporarily diminish. If the front stalls
short of the coast, onshore winds and sea fog potential will
persist. Regardless, southeast winds will be in place by Friday
night, putting the marine areas in the reign of more humid air
fueling potential for another round of patchy fog Friday night
into Saturday morning. As another, stronger front approaches on
Sunday, we may see winds pick up enough to mitigate fog potential
Saturday night/Sunday morning, but at least by Monday morning once
the front sweeps through, turning winds offshore and ushering in
drier air to the waters. With the stronger front, we may see
winds and seas increase enough in the first part of the new week
to necessitate caution flags or perhaps even a small craft
advisory farther offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 83 63 68 61 / 0 50 20 0
Houston (IAH) 85 67 79 64 / 0 20 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 77 69 72 67 / 0 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for GMZ355.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Luchs

[Iceresistance]

1.7, in total and it's pouring at school right now.

[Edwards Limestone]

I guess south central TX decided just to skip spring and roll straight into summer...felt like July or August this morning. Sweltering.

This humidity is miserable, give us some rain at least mother nature!

[captainbarbossa19]

I guess south central TX decided just to skip spring and roll straight into summer...felt like July or August this morning. Sweltering.

This humidity is miserable, give us some rain at least mother nature!

We finally kicked La Nina out of here though. Should start to see impacts from the transition within a few weeks to months. I expect spring to gradually become wetter.

[Iceresistance]

Final total at my house is 1.8 inches of rain.

[Iceresistance]

Storms are blowing up in DFW.

[cstrunk]

Very nice rain/thunderstorms last night and this morning. Ended up with 1.54" at my house.