Texas Spring 2026

[rwfromkansas]

Count me in on the moving thing. My daughter is about to graduate and move to college and then I am a free man . The whole marriage thing didn't work out so as long as my daughter is well., a move to a cooler climate is on the table. I'm a simple man so anywhere will work. First thoughts are Omaha, KC, northern Arkansas. The older I get the more summer heat gets to me, for health reasons. Been to the ambulance and hospital six times in the last thirty years because of heat. I'm done.

Absolutely love KC. Roads are amazing. Good food, seasons.

[rwfromkansas]

I actually have a question regarding heat ridges and texas, what actually causes a massive heat ridge to park itself over texas and become stuck in place for weeks on end? . I understand that high pressure follows low pressure, but we have seen in past summers that these ridges can become nearly stationary over the state for a large part of summer

That is a great question. I've always wondered that myself. I imagine it has something to do with the hot desert air to the west but not sure.

[wxman22]

I actually have a question regarding heat ridges and texas, what actually causes a massive heat ridge to park itself over texas and become stuck in place for weeks on end? . I understand that high pressure follows low pressure, but we have seen in past summers that these ridges can become nearly stationary over the state for a large part of summer

The southwest deserts play a role.And a 1/3rd of the state is semi arid to arid in far west Texas.

[Ntxw]

3 prong factor currently.

1. Alaskan/GOA trough tends to build ridges in the southwest/Texas. This is currently happening ++EPO.
2. Mid to upper warmth in the atmosphere is helping to intensify said ridge at the upper levels. Places in the west and southwest even higher peaks should have feet of snow, barren in many locations most of this winter and still is. This has been in place since Fall.
3. Surface feedback from drought also doesn't help.

It's a deadly combination. Sonoran ridges (deserts) are cyclical each warm season, flexes and wanes. When we have cooling feedbacks such as rain/favorable trough positions it weakens as it passes. When the opposite happens, it tends to intensify. In short we are seeing the same pattern that has occurred over the past several months, albeit now in a warmer season. It will recur likely again in 30-45 days hotter, assuming we haven't broken the cycle by then. We will need likely an external factor to crack the persistent mid to upper ridge like a strong STJ from El Nino.

[HockeyTx82]

So are we moving to the summer thread or staying here? I just don't want to miss anything.

[Brent]

So are we moving to the summer thread or staying here? I just don't want to miss anything.

I mean we stayed in the winter thread through that so called thing ... The warmest winter on record here

I think we're here through Memorial Day for sure

The only reason I'm sort of optimistic otherwise is the record highs from March 2017 and 2020 were very easy summers here

[cstrunk]

The pattern definitely sucks... but plenty of time for things to change later this spring/summer.

On a side note, my Tempest weather station that I've had for about 7 years give or take has failed on me. Tempest offered a new replacement (upgraded version) for half price. Just got it in the mail and am excited to put it up. I've missed my temperature/precip readings. Maybe this upgraded one will be better for wind, too, but my location isn't ideal for wind anyways.

[Ntxw]

Massive WWB happening in the Pacific to boost El Nino formation. Fingers crossed we may be crossing a threshold to overwhelm the stagnant pattern. Daily SOI has been lower this past week. We'll definitely watch to see if WWB can spark the STJ later next month.

[HockeyTx82]

What about that gas lighting post about supercells blowing up all over Texas in a few weeks? Is that still a thing or is that just some hype from social media?

[Ntxw]

What about that gas lighting post about supercells blowing up all over Texas in a few weeks? Is that still a thing or is that just some hype from social media?

Beyond this current heatwave, models are hinting at a gradual increase in moisture across the southern plains. It is also April, peak severe weather season for us (May up north into Oklahoma and Kansas.) Climo says activity should increase, is it significantly an uptick from normal? Nothing quite gives that vibe yet.

[txtwister78]

What about that gas lighting post about supercells blowing up all over Texas in a few weeks? Is that still a thing or is that just some hype from social media?

Yeah I don't know about gas lighting but ensembles are showing a more active precip signal now
as we move into April which again aligns with the mjo along with some of the other background pattern drivers at play. No surprise there.

In addition as mentioned above being that we're entering prime severe weather climatology season, seeing a supercell composite map light up probably a good bet considering the above normal temps in place in the lead up to the more active pattern signal ahead.

[cycloneye]

NOAA Spring Outlook

[Stratton23]

global models starting to see the shift toward a wetter regime

[869MB]

We shall see...

 https://x.com/i/status/2035059158412611929



Early April, particularly between April 1-8, looks active from a severe weather/tornado standpoint. We'll also likely see above-average rainfall across portions of the Ozarks, Mid-south and Mississippi Valley.

A large-scale pattern reversal will favor troughing, or a jet stream dip in the west. Chilly air will spill south over the Rockies in that jet stream dip. Warmth and moisture will build in the east.

Periodically, lobes of that cold pocket will pinch off, bowling eastwards and kicking up that warmer, wetter air mass over the Central U.S. With the jet stream roaring overhead, adding wind energy, some of the storms will be strong to severe. I expect an uptick in tornado activity as well.

It's also the time of year when tornado activity tends to ramp up anyway. Now is a good time to clean the cobwebs out of the storm cellars, brush up on your severe weather plan and coordinate with friends, family and loved ones.

[TomballEd]

Looking at the NOAA drought continues outlook. A super Nino may be on the way but drought seems to beget drought. I assume hot dry soils reinforce the heat ridge.

I sure hope the early April rains can throw a monkey wrench into the NOAA forecast.

[Ntxw]

Looking at the NOAA drought continues outlook. A super Nino may be on the way but drought seems to beget drought. I assume hot dry soils reinforce the heat ridge.

I sure hope the early April rains can throw a monkey wrench into the NOAA forecast.

Pacific WWB means business. By late April the background forcing will have feedbacks from the current shift to El Nino.









2015 had the benefit of the WWB/Nino attempt late 2014. We're about a month or two behind from the likely coupling.

[Brent]

There's a constant active pattern showing up around 1st of April so far

Now to be fair im pretty sure the same data didn't see the 90s coming but still

[869MB]

If this large scale pattern does materialize as advertised, hopefully the trough/ridge orientation will be beneficial for the entire state of Texas and not just portions of the state…

 https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/2035372668304666755

[txtwister78]

One more week of dry weather before our pattern as advertised on here previously begins to change as we end March and move into April. Models are beginning to see it which just reinforces the confidence level.

Bring on the rain!

[Brent]

Anything is better than this... I want to stop breaking record highs from over 100 years ago

Although OKC has gone from a wind chill of 6 on Monday to 96 today