Florida Weather

[psyclone]

I think when JAX mentions a freeze watch for "all of Florida" they are referencing all of their Florida counties in their CWA since their county warning area includes SE Georgia as well. at least that is how i interpreted it.

[boca]

It seems like a rareity to even get into the 40's this winter here in SE Florida for lows.The cold air doesn't seem to want to go south of Lake O. They have our lows in the lower 50's down here. I would think the way the latest cold front been talked about considering its arctic origin we would see upper 30's or lower 40's down here.The gulf stream is our safety net.

[jinftl]

NWS Miami has definitely bumped up temps in the latest forecast....both expected lows and highs....esp for Wednesday night and Thursday night....went from flirting with 50 deg to forecast of 55 deg now on thursday night.


NWS Forecast for: Miami FL
Issued by: National Weather Service Miami - South Florida
Last Update: 5:52 pm EST Jan 13, 2009

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tonight: A 30 percent chance of showers before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.
Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 72.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 59.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.
Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69.
Friday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 70. Breezy, with a north wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.
M.L.King Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 71.

[jdray]

I think when JAX mentions a freeze watch for "all of Florida" they are referencing all of their Florida counties in their CWA since their county warning area includes SE Georgia as well. at least that is how i interpreted it.

No, they specifically say area a few times in the disco.
No mention of area when they said STATE. If they meant forecast area, why only mention STATE of FLORIDA and not Georgia?

Thats the first time I have ever seen them mention state forecasts.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/text.php?sid=JAX&pil=AFD

Disco is still up.
Be interesting to see who's right.
Accuwx has Clewiston (right on the lake) at 38F Thursday night.
Ft Meyers @ 39F Thursday night. (NBC-2 says 37F) (WZVN ABC says 38F)
Lehigh Acres is 38F Thursday night.


NWS TAMPA forecast for Lee County
Thursday Night...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s near the coast and in the upper 30s inland. North winds around 10 mph.

Miami/WPB seems to have the heat shield on.

Either way, 2 days we will find out.

[JonathanBelles]

NWS has 5 straight nights under 50, with 2 close to 40! Perfect night tonight. Nice and cool!

[JonathanBelles]

2005 UNK 3 E FRUITVILLE SARASOTA FL 2734 8241 ESTIMATED 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS BROUGHT SEVERAL TREE LIMBS DOWN ONTO WIRES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. (TBW)

The news said they had reports of upwards of 60mph in the area.

[psyclone]

Hmmm. my nws point and click now shows a 39 degree low on both thursday and friday night, down a notch from last night and a teeth chattering 29 for the stawberry fields of plant city. I'm sure the farmers are testing their sprinklers as this is the first good freeze threat of the season.
As for the discussion out of Jax re the statewide freeze watch, I am convinced this is either:
A.)erroneous verbiage or
B.)some of us are misunderstanding it and they really are talking about their NE Florida counties. After all they mention "mid to upper 20's for most locales" immediately prior to dropping the statewide freeze watch term. Mid to upper 20's doesn't make sense in a statewide context. It will certainly be chilly in Miami beach but don't look for icicles on those coconut palms. As with any cold event in Florida, the question is how far does that freeze line advance and will central & south florida agriculture and landscaping be threatened. fingers crossed....

[HURAKAN]

NWS Miami - South Florida
Point Forecast: Sweetwater FL

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. North wind between 9 and 11 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 51. North wind between 10 and 14 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Breezy, with a north wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. Windy, with a north wind between 20 and 22 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Friday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Breezy, with a north wind between 17 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 71. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. North wind between 8 and 11 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.

M.L.King Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.

[JonathanBelles]

Numerous stations in the bay area have place 32°F into the Tampa forecast!!!!

[gatorcane]

I took a look at the latest NWS Miami lows for the immediate SE Coast of Florida. Generally the coolest they are progging for the immediate coast of Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade are the mid 50s at this time. Inland it looks like lows may get into the upper 40s in inland Palm Beach County but I'm seeing generally around 50F for most locals (and mostly low 50s Broward and Miami-Dade).

Yes, its going to feel "cold" in SE Florida for the next several days but actually considering what the rest of Florida is going to see, its not that bad. This is a perfect time to open up the windows. Again we are seeing another example of SE Florida's "micro-climate" which at times is entirely different than what the rest of the state is experiencing.

[gatorcane]

Numerous stations in the bay area have place 32°F into the Tampa forecast!!!!

Indeed, looks like Freeze Warnings will be issued for most of Hillsborough county including metro Tampa. Take a look at the forecast for downtown Tampa, Fri. night. Pinellas County so far in the clear but watch out normally colder locations of northern Pinellas County (including Palm Harbor, Tarpon Springs, and East Lake) as it could get very close to freezing or may even freeze.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 31. North northeast wind around 9 mph.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... it=0&lg=en

[JonathanBelles]

I am expecting a near freeze here in the cooler area of mid county. I am generally within a few degrees of Tampa during the winter.

[frankthetank]

This thread is so funny to read coming from where i'm sitting. I have my jacket on and a hat right now while the furnace is attempting to keep my living room at 60F (i turn it down at night...i'm a hot sleeper).... Sounds like PERFECT weather. Very excited to visit S. Fl again. Hey it looks like that big west ridge will turn my area "mild" next week.

Just a thought, but it looks like trough goes back into the west while ridge comes back to southeast towards end of month. Get ready for above normal temps you S. Floridians. Blame La Nina.

[HURAKAN]

54.5ºF was the low at 7:23 AM.

[JonathanBelles]

It was 46 here this morning at 7:30 this morning.

[gatorcane]

Mesoanalysis of temperatures is quite interesting -- look how the 60s are hugging the Atlantic Coast with 40s inland even in Southern FL...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Tallahassee, FL is now forecast to hit 13F on Friday night! If that forecast plays out, then they will break the record for the date (17F) by four degrees. Such a temperature would also be the coldest the city has seen in many years, beating the January 2008 event (25F), the January 2003 event (18F) and the January 1996 event (17F).

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 5&site=tae

Friday Night: Clear, with a low around 13.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
930 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...A VERY DRY AIRMASS HAS FILTERED IN BEHIND THE
THIS MORNING`S COLD FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL
USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL YEARS
ACROSS THIS REGION. SEVERAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE SURE TO BE
BROKEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE FOLLOWING ARE SOME
HISTORICAL CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR JANUARY AT TALLAHASSEE:

..........JANUARY TLH CLIMATE 1892-2008 (116 YRS)..........

RECORD LOW = 6F 1985
DAYS BELOW 15 F = 11
DAYS BELOW 20 F = 70

PROBABILITIES FOR TLH:

% CHANCE OF A JANUARY TEMPERATURE DROPPING BELOW 15 F = < .2%
% CHANCE OF A JANUARY TEMPERATURE DROPPING BELOW 20 F = < .5%

Wow, if 13F is reached, then it will only be the 12th time in the last 116 years that Tallahassee has fallen below 15F during the month of January!

[jdray]

Hmmm. my nws point and click now shows a 39 degree low on both thursday and friday night, down a notch from last night and a teeth chattering 29 for the stawberry fields of plant city. I'm sure the farmers are testing their sprinklers as this is the first good freeze threat of the season.
As for the discussion out of Jax re the statewide freeze watch, I am convinced this is either:
A.)erroneous verbiage or
B.)some of us are misunderstanding it and they really are talking about their NE Florida counties. After all they mention "mid to upper 20's for most locales" immediately prior to dropping the statewide freeze watch term. Mid to upper 20's doesn't make sense in a statewide context. It will certainly be chilly in Miami beach but don't look for icicles on those coconut palms. As with any cold event in Florida, the question is how far does that freeze line advance and will central & south florida agriculture and landscaping be threatened. fingers crossed....

Thats what I am wondering as well. Was a misspoke, or do they see the cold getting farther south than most?

[jinftl]

If Miami is going to break the 50 deg mark this cold spell....it has one shot it seems on friday night.



(WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY)...LOW TEMPS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM THE 30S NW INTERIOR TO THE 40S AT
NAPLES AND 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN METRO AREAS...THOUGH WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN SUBURBS OF THE
EASTERN METRO AREAS FROM PALM BEACH TO MIAMI-DADE ON FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 AGAIN NW
INTERIOR...30S IN THE NAPLES AREA AND 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN METRO
AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT LIGHTER WINDS INTERIOR MAY PRECLUDE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY.

STRONG/SLIGHTLY ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOVE ONSHORE BEFORE FLOW
SHIFTS BRIEFLY SW ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AS ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY DIGS INTO EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THOUGH MODERATION OF TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH 50S CONTINUING ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN 5-8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THIS PERIOD.

[jinftl]

NWS Jax only puts out forecast for their designated forecast area...not the state of florida...since that NWS office encompasses areas in GA & FL, the only areas of FL they are speaking of is the area under their watch. NWS offices wouldn't outstep their bounds like that and possibly put contradictory info on another area's domain. NWS Jax can't put out a freeze watch for Miami.

The biggest question in Miami is not whether there will be killing freeze but will they go below 50 deg. Iffy at best that even that will happen.
NWS Miami was a bit too low in the forecast low temps for last night even in south florida....at 9pm tuesday, they predicted 50 deg in West Palm...actual was 52 deg, predicted 55 deg in Fort Lauderdale..actual was 56 deg....and predicted 55 deg in Miami, actual was 57 deg.

Temps at 10am are in the low to mid 60s in south florida...vs. 30's and 40's in the panhandle and north fla....the 400 miles or so from Jax to Mia leaves alot of room for moderation of cold airmasses like this.

As of now, this cold snap will be about 10 deg warmer than the 1/3/08 cold snap where Miami Airport got down to 39.

Hmmm. my nws point and click now shows a 39 degree low on both thursday and friday night, down a notch from last night and a teeth chattering 29 for the stawberry fields of plant city. I'm sure the farmers are testing their sprinklers as this is the first good freeze threat of the season.
As for the discussion out of Jax re the statewide freeze watch, I am convinced this is either:
A.)erroneous verbiage or
B.)some of us are misunderstanding it and they really are talking about their NE Florida counties. After all they mention "mid to upper 20's for most locales" immediately prior to dropping the statewide freeze watch term. Mid to upper 20's doesn't make sense in a statewide context. It will certainly be chilly in Miami beach but don't look for icicles on those coconut palms. As with any cold event in Florida, the question is how far does that freeze line advance and will central & south florida agriculture and landscaping be threatened. fingers crossed....

Thats what I am wondering as well. Was a misspoke, or do they see the cold getting farther south than most?