Texas Summer 2012

[vbhoutex]

Rgv20, your rain chances should stick around all weekend. Some of the Texas WFOs this afternoon were mentioning that we'll be dealing with an inverted trough over south Texas for much of the weekend. So, you'll probably get in on the Texas Rain Party which some of us have been enjoying this week ... although it appears some of our friends in southeast Texas today have had too much to drink!

My son has had 13" at his house in Cypress in the last 48 hrs. Major flooding ongoing all over NW Harris County. Water rescues still in progress. We are expecting another round of rain in the next 12 hours also. Not a good situation at all!! Fortunately at my house we only had 3.23" today.

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow: I think tomorrow Friday should be our best shot of some widespread Rain for the Rio Grande Valley and looking until the weekend convection should be trigger more by the Seabreeze front. We will take any rain we can get!

Will you please take ours?

I will gladly take your rain if I could! We have received only 1.1" since Monday at the house. If we could move the 13" that NW Harris County has received in 24 hours west and northwest of Austin in the Highland Lakes watershed, Lakes Buchanan and Travis would be filling up to their elevation pools. Rarely ever seems to work out that way. Heaviest stuff falls downstream in most cases.

[weatherdude1108]

POURING rain at the weatherdude center with lots of wind, lightning, and thunder! Too dangerous to check the gauge yet. I'll report later. Love it!

[Portastorm]

:lightning: POURING rain at the weatherdude center with lots of wind, lightning, and thunder! Too dangerous to check the gauge yet. I'll report later. Love it!

Oh, c'mon! Why let a little electricity in the air stop you from gathering important weather data?!

Glad to hear you're getting some good rain. Based on EWX's afternoon AFD, looks like more is in store for us tomorrow.

[weatherdude1108]

:lightning: POURING rain at the weatherdude center with lots of wind, lightning, and thunder! Too dangerous to check the gauge yet. I'll report later. Love it!

Oh, c'mon! Why let a little electricity in the air stop you from gathering important weather data?!

Glad to hear you're getting some good rain. Based on EWX's afternoon AFD, looks like more is in store for us tomorrow.

Yeah, having a baby daughter has softened up my "storm-chasing" ways.
We had a few close calls this afternoon wit h flashes and thunder within a couple seconds. I was next to a window of course.

Glad to see the forecast for more! The streets in my neighborhood a nice "steaming" visual effect.

[Texas Snowman]

Jim Cantore tweeted this afternoon that some places in SE Texas have had 15" of rain this week.

Wow. So completely opposite of last summer.

Let's hope this winter is just as equally opposite of last winter!

[weatherdude1108]

0.8" this afternoon. Brings our total since Monday morning just shy of 2".

[Rgv20]

Some pretty good rain just north of my area this evening

[Rgv20]

Rain is so close! but it looks like it should miss my area..

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC427-140330-
/O.NEW.KBRO.FF.W.0014.120714T0203Z-120714T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
903 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN STARR COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...VIBORAS...FALCON DAM.

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 859 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS
INDICATED RAINFALL RATES OF THREE TO FOUR INCHES PER HOUR
FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN STARR COUNTY. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH AND WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER THE MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
WESTERN STARR COUNTY THROUGH 1030 PM THIS EVENING.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS TO RISE.

DON`T BECOME A STATISTIC. TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN!

&&

LAT...LON 2657 9917 2668 9901 2678 9895 2678 9877
2639 9908 2643 9912 2647 9910 2649 9910
2652 9913 2653 9916 2654 9918

$$

BILLINGS/SPEECE

[Portastorm]

Interesting forecast discussion early this morning out of NWSFO EWX. The eventual track of the upper level low (ULL) will determine, of course, who gets a lot of rain and who doesn't. Scattered showers/storms seem a good bet though this weekend for most of south central Texas. I will point out that after looking at satellite and water vapor loops this morning, the ULL to me seems to be doing a sit-and-spin over SE Texas.

-------------
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE
THE PROGRESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS. CURRENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH SLOW MOVING WESTWARD
WITH TIME...MOVING COMPLETELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO
MEXICO. FOR TODAY...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW PVA FOR OUR AREA AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWATS VALUES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
BODES WELL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AND
EARLY EVENING. PVA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TRACK. CONDITIONS LOOK
MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS VALUES APPROACH THE 2 INCH MARK. FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE NEUTRALLY ORIENTED
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE FROM
EACH OTHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY CONCERNING WHETHER THE LOW
TAKES A MORE NORTHWESTERN OR WESTERN TRACK. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW ON
A WESTERN TRACK AND GIVES IT A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT STALLS
BRIEFLY SOUTH OF BIG BEND. THIS SOLUTION WOULD GIVE US MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
ECMWF TAKES THE TROUGH FURTHER TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THEN BRINGS A WEAKNESS UP THE MEXICO SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE
FRIDAY. THIS SOLUTION KEEPS WEDNESDAY RELATIVELY DRY THEN
INCREASES RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WENT WITH THE TRACK OF
THE GFS AND A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR RAIN CHANCES. OVER NEXT
WEEKEND BOTH MODELS TAKE THE LOW/WEAKNESS AWAY FROM THE AREA
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKING AT DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM
THEN GRADUALLY WARMED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

[vbhoutex]

Interesting forecast discussion early this morning out of NWSFO EWX. The eventual track of the upper level low (ULL) will determine, of course, who gets a lot of rain and who doesn't. Scattered showers/storms seem a good bet though this weekend for most of south central Texas. I will point out that after looking at satellite and water vapor loops this morning, the ULL to me seems to be doing a sit-and-spin over SE Texas.

-------------
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE
THE PROGRESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS. CURRENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH SLOW MOVING WESTWARD
WITH TIME...MOVING COMPLETELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO
MEXICO....

I can't see you!!!Neener, neener. If I can't see it it won't happen!!

[Ntxw]

Ahh I'm loving the discussion this thread is putting out this year. All this talk of rain . To put into perspective, for some of us at this time last year we were already amidst a loooong streak of 100s. To match it we'd have to get 100s for the rest of this month, all of august, and right into the fall equinox. It's safe to say that will not happen .

I wonder if the models are depicting the disturbance near the Bahamas well. LC seems to think not which could effect weather here down the road.

[somethingfunny]

Tonight was probably the most incredible sunset I've ever seen. These are totally undoctored, I took them with my cell phone.

[Nikki]

Lightning, thunder, and heavy rain at the moment here where I am. Everyone stay safe in all this weather!!

[vbhoutex]

Ahh I'm loving the discussion this thread is putting out this year. All this talk of rain . To put into perspective, for some of us at this time last year we were already amidst a loooong streak of 100s. To match it we'd have to get 100s for the rest of this month, all of august, and right into the fall equinox. It's safe to say that will not happen .

I wonder if the models are depicting the disturbance near the Bahamas well. LC seems to think not which could effect weather here down the road.

Most definitely could change things up this week, but no one is alluding to it in the media at all. It will be interesting to watch the tunes change as the week progresses. It is not something we want or need in the Houston area, but I'll be watching it for sure.

[Portastorm]

Very interesting night last night at the Portastorm Weather Center. I was expecting the shower/storm activity to die out after sunset per what local NWS said. However, just the opposite happened. Around 10 pm, we started seeing more and more pop-up cells with greater coverage around the AUS metro area. Cedar Park, in fact, received about 2 inches of rain. The PWC got hammered for about 20 minutes with moderate rain but some intense cloud-to-ground lightning. Roughly around 11 pm, EWX issued a new forecast discussion saying that the 0z NAM showed a disturbance moving south over us which was creating the late evening "fireworks." Previously there was no mention at all of so-called "disturbance."

Weather never ceases to amaze and still surprises even the experts! Can't wait to see how today unfolds.

[weatherdude1108]

Very interesting night last night at the Portastorm Weather Center. I was expecting the shower/storm activity to die out after sunset per what local NWS said. However, just the opposite happened. Around 10 pm, we started seeing more and more pop-up cells with greater coverage around the AUS metro area. Cedar Park, in fact, received about 2 inches of rain. The PWC got hammered for about 20 minutes with moderate rain but some intense cloud-to-ground lightning. Roughly around 11 pm, EWX issued a new forecast discussion saying that the 0z NAM showed a disturbance moving south over us which was creating the late evening "fireworks." Previously there was no mention at all of so-called "disturbance."

Weather never ceases to amaze and still surprises even the experts! Can't wait to see how today unfolds.

I had that same thing happen around 10-12 last night at the weatherdude center! I was wondering what happened. We had a lot of lightning and thunder, mostly moderate rain for about 30 minutes or so. The dog jumped up in the bed shaking. You'd think we had an earthquake! That was a nice surprise last night! Weather never ceases to amaze me either! Already "popping" out there this afternoon!

[ndale]

Very interesting night last night at the Portastorm Weather Center. I was expecting the shower/storm activity to die out after sunset per what local NWS said. However, just the opposite happened. Around 10 pm, we started seeing more and more pop-up cells with greater coverage around the AUS metro area. Cedar Park, in fact, received about 2 inches of rain. The PWC got hammered for about 20 minutes with moderate rain but some intense cloud-to-ground lightning. Roughly around 11 pm, EWX issued a new forecast discussion saying that the 0z NAM showed a disturbance moving south over us which was creating the late evening "fireworks." Previously there was no mention at all of so-called "disturbance."

Weather never ceases to amaze and still surprises even the experts! Can't wait to see how today unfolds.

We had some shower activity last night as well and are getting some heavy showers right now. Our dog has had a bad week with all the thunder and rain showers, everyday he is in meltdown mode. He is our weather alert, Friday he started having a doggy panic attack over an hour before the storm arrived. He must sense changes in air pressure or something. Anyway I am grateful for the rain and glad this summer is so different from last year.

Edited one time for spelling.

[Portastorm]

It has been and continues to be an active weather day in the Austin metro area. Multiple "significant weather advisories" in place with heavy rains and some intense lightning for spots from Georgetown, Round Rock, Pflugerville, and parts of Austin. The radar continues to look colorful to our west and southwest as these cells move northeast and east. And no one here is complaining!

Yes indeed ... what a difference a year makes. Last year it was 104 in Austin with not a hint of a cloud in the sky.

[TexasF6]

Porta, it just started to sprinkle for the 1st time in NW Austin since about 330pm!!! I'd estimate 2.5+ inches easy...KVUE just reported evacuations in Round Rock's Brushy Creek. The thunder & light show has been intense all afternoon. I saw those outflow boundaries coming together earlier today, I knew it would pop eventually? But not like this! Feels like El Nino!