Texas Spring 2016

[EnnisTx]

Long story, but I fell asleep out by the pool and I have the worst sunburn of my life from Saturday and it was only 79-80 degrees....mid March and I had an ER trip with second degree burns, worst pain I've ever experienced, a shot and IV Fluids with dressings for sever blistered areas.... just unbelievable

[Brent]

This warmth is so great, I think I'm going to cry...

It's March. We'll have plenty of time for summer in May, June, July, August, September, and October.

[Ntxw]

And in the case of this past year November, December, January, and February to boot

The past 6-10 months stringing from about July has been consistently warmer than normal. Coincidence about the same time period the Nino went above 2C?

La Nina is coming though, dynamical models are seeing it. Subsurface is ahead of 2010's Nino-Nina switch

[Texas Snowman]

Long story, but I fell asleep out by the pool and I have the worst sunburn of my life from Saturday and it was only 79-80 degrees....mid March and I had an ER trip with second degree burns, worst pain I've ever experienced, a shot and IV Fluids with dressings for sever blistered areas.... just unbelievable

Really sorry to hear that. Praying for you as you recover.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Long story, but I fell asleep out by the pool and I have the worst sunburn of my life from Saturday and it was only 79-80 degrees....mid March and I had an ER trip with second degree burns, worst pain I've ever experienced, a shot and IV Fluids with dressings for sever blistered areas.... just unbelievable

Ouch that sounds terrible! Hope you heal quickly!

[dhweather]

Lake Travis is less than a foot from being full. Made a lot of progress there the past 12 months! If we can just average normal spring rains, most locations in Texas will be able to endure a hot summer if one comes when looking at lake levels.

They mentioned that on news this morning. It was at 680.6. Full is 681. Remarkable progress over a year ago! Buchanan is also doing a lot better. Nice change!

Amazing, isn't it? This time last year, practically every reading here was negative. The majority are now positive.


http://www.lakelevels.info/?StateID=TX

[dhweather]

Long story, but I fell asleep out by the pool and I have the worst sunburn of my life from Saturday and it was only 79-80 degrees....mid March and I had an ER trip with second degree burns, worst pain I've ever experienced, a shot and IV Fluids with dressings for sever blistered areas.... just unbelievable

Ouch! Prayers you get well soon, that's terrible.

[Ntxw]

In other news, a feature we have all been accustomed to and relied on so much the past 2-3 years has been eradicated, nearly. The powerful El Nino driven extended Aleutian low has been the demise of the North Pacific warm pool. In fact it has been reversed to a developing cold pool. I think we now know who is king, the tropics. ENSO trumps the extra-tropics.



For summer analogs we definitely need to look at the years with developing cold pools in the north Pacific.

[vbhoutex]

Long story, but I fell asleep out by the pool and I have the worst sunburn of my life from Saturday and it was only 79-80 degrees....mid March and I had an ER trip with second degree burns, worst pain I've ever experienced, a shot and IV Fluids with dressings for sever blistered areas.... just unbelievable

Ouch! Prayers you get well soon, that's terrible.

YOUCH!! BTDT and it is sure no fun.No ER visit for me though. We just used lots of lotion and wet cloths and probably aspirin iirc. But that has been 50+ years ago too. I think I have blocked that pain out of my mind. But then again I grew up basically on the beach in Gulf Breeze, Fl.(Pensacola).

[Ntxw]

Here is a composite of all years since 1950 that reverted from El Nino to La Nina for JJA



precip



The two biggest Ninos and the following summer; 1983, 1998 (1998 probably skews this being the 3rd hottest summer on record)

[TheProfessor]

I just spent the last few days in Corpus Christi and oh boy will I dread this Summer. I think I've gotten a bit too used to the cool weather in Ohio.

[Brent]

:uarrow: And in the case of this past year November, December, January, and February to boot

The past 6-10 months stringing from about July has been consistently warmer than normal. Coincidence about the same time period the Nino went above 2C?

La Nina is coming though, dynamical models are seeing it. Subsurface is ahead of 2010's Nino-Nina switch

I am ready for some below normal months lol(even if it has to wait til after summer or something)... this has really been wxman57's el nino... I never thought we'd have 7 straight months and counting of above normal temps.

so what made the la nina of 2007 so wet vs. the others? I've been wondering this since I was looking at it. The summer of 2007 was the hottest on record in Alabama(basically our mini version of the Texas 2011 summer)

and 1973 is the last time DFW failed to hit 100. So a mixed bag of analogs...

[Ntxw]

so what made the la nina of 2007 so wet vs. the others? I've been wondering this since I was looking at it. The summer of 2007 was the hottest on record in Alabama(basically our mini version of the Texas 2011 summer)

and 1973 is the last time DFW failed to hit 100. So a mixed bag of analogs...

That's a good question I've been trying to find answers to. The very basic tile to start with is, La Nina is very opposite of El Nino. It favors the -PNA which plants a big ridge of high pressure over the southeastern US. hottest summers in that region tend to come with La Nina. Canada is usually very chilly. That SE ridge sometimes draws moisture from the gulf into Texas during the hot months because it is anchored east of us. If there are systems to take advantage then it can rain a lot with all that moisture, 2007 had that. As did 1973, and 1906. But it seems when there is a lack of systems or if the SE ridge is so strong it can backdoor and get us hot too. Why can't these things just be black and white?!

This year will start differently though. Most of the switch years by this time the subtropical region of the Pacific (Baja, W Mexico) was already cooling into -PDO. This year it is warm and keeping +PDO. This is a significant difference.

[lrak]

I just spent the last few days in Corpus Christi and oh boy will I dread this Summer. I think I've gotten a bit too used to the cool weather in Ohio.

Oklahoma is as far north as I've ever been on this planet. Been south plenty, I can't imagine living along the equator. When I was that far south my skin instantly fried.

[wxman57]

Oklahoma is as far north as I've ever been on this planet. Been south plenty, I can't imagine living along the equator. When I was that far south my skin instantly fried.

I think that the northern U.S. border is the Red River.

Love those summer maps you posted Ntxw, particularly the 3rd one.

Had a nice 20-mile ride after work last evening. First time I've ridden this year and not felt cold. I see the GFS has backed way off with the front. Only a low in the mid 60s Saturday morning. Mid 40s Sunday morning, though (maybe). Above-normal temps return by Tuesday, but another cold front may reach the TX cost by the following weekend.

[Ntxw]

I took a look at the SOI archives from BOM and something stuck out to me about 2007. The other Nino to Nina summers featured SOI increase to above 10 for at least one of the three months, in general increasing as the Nina strengthened. 2007 remained weak SOI more neutral and even slightly negative. So while the ocean was Nina, the atmosphere had not let go of the Nino pattern yet through early summer.

[arizona_sooner]

All this talk about springtime sunburns is disappointing to me. I am a long time Okie/Texan/Louisianan and a little March sun is a good thing. For the last few weeks I have been down in south Trinidad, 10 degrees off the equator, being out in the noon-day sun every day! I have the best late-winter tan of my life! Last time I was in the US I was in Ohio and it was snowing! This is MUCH better in March!

[Brent]

More winter appearances

ETA to add: 33 at DFW on March 29th... the first cold snap is much like this weekend, around 40

The Euro also has the big front next Friday/Saturday btw... temps upper 30s/around 40.

[Texas Snowman]

@TxStormChasers -- 406AM: Hail up to size of golfballs likely falling between I-20 and I-30 on west sides of Benbrook and Fort Worth. Moving east. #dfwwx

[Texas Snowman]

Severe T-storm and big hailstorm in Fort Worth. Warning until 5 a.m.

@TxStormChasers -- Copious amounts of large hail in west Fort Worth #txwx #dfwwx