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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Tue Oct 19, 2021 10:13 pm
by bubba hotep
A few members on the EPS 45-day starting to show snow for DFW during the week of Thanksgiving
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Wed Oct 20, 2021 7:45 am
by gpsnowman
bubba hotep wrote:A few members on the EPS 45-day starting to show snow for DFW during the week of Thanksgiving
Seems like we are skipping autumn and heading straight into winter at some point in November. I love fall but if this scenario holds I can live with it. A cold Thanksgiving is always nice.
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Wed Oct 20, 2021 8:45 am
by wxman57
bubba hotep wrote:A few members on the EPS 45-day starting to show snow for DFW during the week of Thanksgiving
I think back to Thanksgiving week of 1993, when the Cowboys played the Dolphins in a very icy game. We call that game the "Leon Lett Bowl" at the office. I still have the printed out model guidance leading up to that Thanksgiving week cold outbreak.
Cowboy fans - just don't click...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoebUFaZViYLooks like another La Nina winter coming up. Typically, La Nina winters are warmer and drier for Texas. Sort of like last year, minus that Arctic deep freeze in mid-February.
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Wed Oct 20, 2021 9:27 am
by Iceresistance
wxman57 wrote:bubba hotep wrote:A few members on the EPS 45-day starting to show snow for DFW during the week of Thanksgiving
I think back to Thanksgiving week of 1993, when the Cowboys played the Dolphins in a very icy game. We call that game the "Leon Lett Bowl" at the office. I still have the printed out model guidance leading up to that Thanksgiving week cold outbreak.
Cowboy fans - just don't click...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoebUFaZViYLooks like another La Nina winter coming up. Typically, La Nina winters are warmer and drier for Texas. Sort of like last year, minus that Arctic deep freeze in mid-February.
My Grandmother lived in Arlington back in the 1990s, she said that almost every winter, there would be Ice Storms & Snowstorms in DFW, the Ice turned many roads into "Skating Rinks" & would be a absolute nightmare to get around.
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Wed Oct 20, 2021 4:53 pm
by Quixotic
wxman57 wrote:bubba hotep wrote:A few members on the EPS 45-day starting to show snow for DFW during the week of Thanksgiving
I think back to Thanksgiving week of 1993, when the Cowboys played the Dolphins in a very icy game. We call that game the "Leon Lett Bowl" at the office. I still have the printed out model guidance leading up to that Thanksgiving week cold outbreak.
Cowboy fans - just don't click...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoebUFaZViYLooks like another La Nina winter coming up. Typically, La Nina winters are warmer and drier for Texas. Sort of like last year, minus that Arctic deep freeze in mid-February.
I got tossed out into the snow/sleet after that game by my mother in order to cool off. Punched a hole in the wall.
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 22, 2021 5:42 am
by Patriot12
Still wondering when’s the next shot of cool fall air that would reach the coastal bend/Corpus Christi?
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 22, 2021 2:48 pm
by texas1836
Patriot12 wrote:Still wondering when’s the next shot of cool fall air that would reach the coastal bend/Corpus Christi?
Maybe sometime around November 8th. Looks to be something brewing.
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 22, 2021 5:17 pm
by Ntxw
Change in the weather pattern middle to late next week. The perpetual blocking episode over the NAO/Atlantic is there. The Pacific firehose has been flooding the continent with maritime air. This jet streak will be blocked and forced underneath due to the Atlantic blocking.
This isn't any Arctic or Polar intrusion, however will produce big upper trofs stuck underneath with more seasonably cool weather. Longer range suggest some high pressures working its way into the PNA region will be better for some cold and end this phase of warmth.
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Sat Oct 23, 2021 12:15 am
by Brent
The end of the 10 day TV forecast here was quite chilly compared to well pretty much everything recent minus a couple days last week maybe
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Sat Oct 23, 2021 2:23 pm
by Ntxw
Evidence now growing we will slowly benefit from the NAO blocking. Still no 'Arctic' air mass but with climo to the north it won't take much to bring down some colder air, especially given how warm it has been. That's the beauty of real blocking, whatever is in the Polar regions is dislocated further south. Surface pressures rising is a good sign.
GOA low retraction and PNA rise will cool the Eastern 2/3rds of the US.
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Sat Oct 23, 2021 2:54 pm
by Brent
Monday originally had highs in the upper 80s here now around 70
And behind that front mid week could be even better
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Sat Oct 23, 2021 5:48 pm
by Ntxw
Imagine this in deep winter from a cold source.
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Sat Oct 23, 2021 6:32 pm
by Iceresistance
This has really high Potential, there is also a Rain/Snow Mix for Oklahoma & Northern Texas from the GFS
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Sat Oct 23, 2021 7:31 pm
by TropicalTundra
Iceresistance wrote:This has really high Potential, there is also a Rain/Snow Mix for Oklahoma & Northern Texas from the GFS
Typical GFS stuff.
Tuesday Morning GFS
Tuesday Morning CMC
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:00 pm
by Haris
Iceresistance wrote:This has really high Potential, there is also a Rain/Snow Mix for Oklahoma & Northern Texas from the GFS
Lol I would not say "really high" . One GFS run 10+ days away
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Sun Oct 24, 2021 8:25 am
by Iceresistance
Haris wrote:Iceresistance wrote:This has really high Potential, there is also a Rain/Snow Mix for Oklahoma & Northern Texas from the GFS
Lol I would not say "really high" . One GFS run 10+ days away
I meant Very High Potential if this were to verify
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:37 am
by bubba hotep
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:41 am
by bubba hotep
Ensembles are in good agreement that we will see a period of below normal temps across Texas. However, as you pointed out above, if our source region was currently below normal then this would be a rather significant early season cold snap. One thing to watch, is this transition period setting the stage for a winter with repeating blocking episodes in the NAO region or is it going to be transitory? IMHO, there are reasons to believe that we will see some sustained -NAO periods resulting in a rather chilly Nov & Dec.
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:44 am
by bubba hotep
Tuesday looks like another stormy day across Texas.
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Sun Oct 24, 2021 12:12 pm
by TropicalTundra
New GFS and CMC runs have freezing temps in Texas panhandle and the GFS has 3 (yes, 3) snowstorms across the entire panhandle from Amarillo to Lubbock. Some very nice looking eye candy.
