MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 091755Z - 091930Z



STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REGENERATE OVER MUCH OF TX THROUGH THE DAY.
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER.

LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS NWRN INTO SERN TX AND WILL
SERVE AS PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE WITH WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS IN PLACE...AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT N OF BOUNDARY DUE TO PERSISTENT SLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 10-20 KTS.

WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND WEAK SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER UNORGANIZED WITH OCCASIONAL DOWNBURSTS THE MAIN
THREAT. HAIL MAY OCCUR AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER W CENTRAL TX WHERE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED UPDRAFTS.

..JEWELL.. 08/09/2005

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1950
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA / SRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 091850Z - 092015Z



ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
A WW IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT.

12Z PHOENIX RAOB INDICATES EXTREMELY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH
MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS PRESENT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. ALTHOUGH
WIND PROFILES ARE WEAK...STRONG INSTABILITY AND NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
STORMS SUGGESTS A FEW SEVERE PULSE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY....WITH
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS DESPITE WARM AND MOIST PROFILES.

18Z RADAR SHOWS CLUSTER OF STORMS SLOWLY PROPAGATING SWWD ACROSS SRN
NV AND NWRN AZ. STORMS AND OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE SWD INTO SERN CA
AND THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS LOWER PRESSURES...AND MAY POSE
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

..JEWELL.. 08/09/2005

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1951
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0256 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB INTO NERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 091956Z - 092130Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A WW
   IS CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CUMULUS FIELD DEEPENING ALONG
   COLD FRONT FROM TSTM COMPLEX OVER KNOX...ANTELOPE...HOLT AND WHEELER
   COUNTIES IN NEB WSWWD INTO THOMAS COUNTY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL TCU
   LINE FROM YUMA INTO PUEBLO COUNTIES IN ERN CO. AIR MASS S OF FRONTAL
   ZONE HAS HEATED WELL INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST
   INSTABILITY EXISTING OVER CNTRL INTO ERN NEB WITHIN AXIS OF RICHER
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN DEEP...WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER
   CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO
   SEVERE...HIGH-BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
   LARGE HAIL. GIVEN THAT BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW EXISTS
   GENERALLY N OF THE NEB/SD BORDER...VERTICAL SHEAR TENDS TO DECREASE
   WITH SWD EXTENT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION.
   
   ..MEAD.. 08/09/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
   42389853 41709841 40500006 39580124 38490250 38530349
   39180315 41180158

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0700 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS...SRN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 709...
   
   VALID 100000Z - 100130Z
   
   ...STRONG STORMS WILL PROPAGATE SWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEB...
   
   MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE SLOWLY MERGING OVER SERN PORTIONS
   OF THE WW.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS EVOLVED ALONG WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WITHIN
   STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...SFC-3KM VALUES IN
   EXCESS OF 8C/KM.  IT APPEARS SWD PROPAGATION WILL CONTINUE AS SLY
   INFLOW ON THE ORDER OF 15KT PERSISTS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS
   NRN KS INTO SCNTRL NEB.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND WEAK
   LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...IT APPEARS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY
   WILL OCCUR BY MID EVENING.  OTHERWISE...SEVERE HAIL OR PERHAPS
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES.
   
   ..DARROW.. 08/10/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...
   
   39680162 41040057 41549951 41339858 40169852

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1956
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY/WRN SD/NEB PNHDL INTO NERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101910Z - 102015Z



POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE HOUR.

TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
TSTM COVERAGE OVER PORTIONS OF ERN WY INTO WRN SD...LIKELY IN
RESPONSE TO LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER SWRN MT AND NWRN CO. CONSIDERABLE
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAVE LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING TO SOME
DEGREE...THOUGH PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S HAVE RESULTED IN POCKETS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG.

CURRENT PROFILERS AND VWPS SHOW THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR /I.E.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS/ ACROSS NWRN WY INTO WRN SD IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES IN PLACE OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...PLATTEVILLE CO PROFILER DOES INDICATE A 25 KT
MID-LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATING AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF SRN
DISTURBANCE...WHICH COULD SLIGHTLY ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
FARTHER S OVER NERN CO/SERN WY INTO THE SRN NEB PNHDL.

FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION COUPLED WITH INCREASING HEIGHT
FALLS DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. SHEAR INSTABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND
ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1957
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MT / CENTRAL AND NWRN WY / FAR NERN ID

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101920Z - 102015Z



SCATTERED STORMS WITH LOW END SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER NWRN WY / SWRN MT / NERN ID AND WILL SPREAD EWD WITH TIME. A
WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

UPPER SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IS COMBINING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND MODERATELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME HAIL. SURFACE OA FIELDS INDICATE
CAPPING EXISTS FARTHER E TOWARD BIL...BUT CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD
ERASE CAP WITH TIME. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS AND STEEPENING
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS MAY OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1958
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 102021Z - 102145Z



SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORM INTENSIFICATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING OVER CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

CLUSTERS OF MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS HAVE PERSISTED TODAY N OF FRONTAL
ZONE OVER CNTRL NEB WITH A RECENT INCREASE IN COVERAGE NOTED OVER
N-CNTRL INTO NERN NEB. INSPECTION OF LOCAL PROFILERS/VWPS AND RUC
DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA ATOP FRONTAL ZONE
IS LIKELY SUSTAINING THIS ACTIVITY. ELSEWHERE...CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD INVOF FRONTAL ZONE
OVER OTOE...SALINE WWD AND THEN SWWD THROUGH CLAY AND FURNAS
COUNTIES IN NEB.

WHILE RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OVER
NRN KS INTO SRN NEB HAVE LARGELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ALONG/S OF FRONTAL ZONE THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES N OF FRONT OVER E-CNTRL NEB INTO W-CNTRL AND
NWRN IA HAVE ALLOWED BOUNDARY-LAYER TO WARM/DESTABILIZE WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED... LIKELY
SUPPORTING INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN ELY SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO WLY
AT 20-30 KTS IN THE 4-7 KM AGL LAYER ON CURRENT NELIGH
PROFILER...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ACTIVITY BECOME ROOTED IN
BOUNDARY-LAYER.

ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT OVER SERN AND
S-CNTRL NEB IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN. SHOULD DEEP...MOIST
CONVECTION INITIATE AND BECOME SUSTAINED...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/HIGH WINDS.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1963
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NEB THROUGH SWRN AND S CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 112012Z - 112215Z



STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN
THREAT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS
CAN ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

THIS AFTERNOON A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN IA INTO SERN
NEB. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SRN IA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT MAX
MOVING EWD THROUGH EXTREME SERN NEB. THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE MODEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. THE WEAK CAP AND
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING ASCENT MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORMS
FROM SERN NEB THROUGH SRN IA NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS AREA IS ALONG THE
SRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WHERE KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE AT
LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE AN OVERALL LIMITING
FACTOR...ESPECIALLY FOR HAIL. HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND...EXPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE
INTO LINE SEGMENTS.

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1967
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1036 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND SWRN NY THROUGH NRN PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 121536Z - 121730Z
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER SRN
   NY INTO NRN PA NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY THREAT. CONVECTIVE AND MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   LATE THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND WNWWD
   INTO NRN PA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF
   THIS BOUNDARY. WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW
   LEVEL JET IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
   LAKES MIGRATES EAST INTO NY. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO RICHER
   MOISTURE RESIDING OVER THE OH VALLEY ADVECTING NEWD WITH MLCAPE
   1500-2000 J/KG POSSIBLE INTO SRN NY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WARM
   MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. CLUSTER OF
   STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER LAKE ERIE WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD ALONG
   THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND INTENSIFY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
   DESTABILIZES DOWNSTREAM. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ON SRN FRINGE OF THE
   STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WHERE KINEMATIC PROFILES AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AS STORMS INTENSIFY AND
   BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
   
   ..DIAL.. 08/12/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
   42677878 42757672 42317500 41177555 40907726 41347936
   42258041

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1968
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0107 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL IL...NRN IND THROUGH SRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 121807Z - 122000Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   NEXT FEW HOURS FROM NRN IL...NRN IND INTO SRN LOWER MI. ISOLATED
   STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
   STORMS.
   
   A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH NRN IL. THE WARM
   SECTOR ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT IS DESTABILIZING WITH TEMPERATURES
   IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S SUPPORTING MLCAPE
   FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
   RESULTING IN POOR 3-6 KM LAPSE RATES AND THIS MAY SERVE AS AN
   OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY FOR HAIL. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AND IN THE
   WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
   THIS PROCESS WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A
   VERY WEAK CAP AND DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT. THIS AREA REMAINS ON
   THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WHERE UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP
   LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR
   STORMS TO ORGANIZE WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 08/12/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...DVN...
   
   41199005 41988728 43088403 41908348 40968627 40368971

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1969
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0308 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE ID/SRN MT AND NRN/CNTRL WY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 122008Z - 122215Z
   
   THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLD LARGE HAIL /AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS/ EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM NE
   ID/SW MT INTO MUCH OF NRN/CNTRL WY AND EXTREME SE MT. MONITORING FOR
   A POSSIBLE SEVERE WATCH ACROSS MUCH OF NRN/CNTRL WY.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSING EWD
   ACROSS SRN ID AT THIS TIME. GIVEN EWD TRANSITION OF UPWARD FORCING
   FOR ASCENT AND OROGRAPHIC/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.,.TSTM COVERAGE
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH OF
   STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED WNW-ESE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH COOL
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT /AROUND -15C AT 500 MB/ AND WRN EXTENT OF
   MONSOONAL MOISTURE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL AS
   FAR WEST AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE ID/SW MT THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   FURTHER EAST...A MORE ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE
   ACROSS NRN/CNTRL WY INTO EXTREME SE MT...SUCH THAT A WATCH MIGHT BE
   NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODIFIED 12Z RIVERTON WY RAOB/RUC
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 2000 J/KG MUCAPE ACROSS
   NRN/CNTRL WY. STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORM
   ORGANIZATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...SUPPORTIVE OF
   LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 08/12/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...
   
   45441465 46211399 46401220 45721017 45340498 44040469
   42600502 42921000 44011160 44231399

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1970
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0329 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NY THROUGH NRN PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 715...
   
   VALID 122029Z - 122230Z
   
   THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND SHOULD CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE
   HOURS...ESPECIALLY FROM S CNTRL INTO SERN NY AND NRN CNTRL THROUGH
   NERN PA.
   
   CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUE FROM S CNTRL NY INTO N CNTRL PA MOVING
   EWD AT 25 TO 30 KT. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING WITHIN A ZONE OF
   ASCENT IN VICINITY OF AND JUST N OF AN E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY WHERE
   LIFT IS BEING ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH NY.
   VERTICAL SHEAR IS LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WITH 35 TO 40 KT
   THROUGH 6 KM. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED...AND
   SOME STORMS MAY ALSO EVOLVE INTO SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A
   LIMITING FACTOR FOR HAIL. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD
   THROUGH S CNTRL/SERN NY AND N CNTRL/NERN PA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
   FARTHER W INTO THE WRN PARTS OF WW 715 MAY BE LIMITED BY LACK OF A
   LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND APPARENT SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
   
   ..DIAL.. 08/12/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
   
   42527599 41857392 41097432 40997642 41177854

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1971
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL/NRN OK AND SRN/ERN KS INTO SW/CNTRL MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 122057Z - 122300Z
   
   POSSIBILITY WILL EXIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FOR PULSE-TYPE/ISOLD
   DAMAGING MICROBURSTS /AND PERHAPS A LARGE HAILSTONE OR TWO/ ACROSS
   NRN/WCNTRL OK AND SRN/ERN KS INTO SW/CNTRL MO. A SEVERE WATCH IS
   UNLIKELY.
   
   WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENE-WSW ACROSS SRN KS/CNTRL
   MO...SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
   ZONE...AND WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR ACROSS NRN/WCNTRL OK.
   AMBIENT AIRMASS IS RATHER MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ALONG/SOUTH OF
   THE FRONT...WITH 17Z LAMONT OK RAOB/REGIONAL RUC SOUNDINGS
   PORTRAYING 2500-3000 J/KG MUCAPE. IN SPITE OF AMPLE
   INSTABILITY...LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS OF 15-20 KTS OR LESS
   BELOW 6 KM WILL LEAD TO RATHER LIMITED STORM ORGANIZATION/PULSE-TYPE
   SEVERE MODE. ISOLD DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
   THE MOST ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 08/12/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
   
   37689901 38559736 39419392 39509188 38839106 37799129
   36919355 35719667 35419745 35649863 36549939

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1972
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0429 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO ERN PA AND NJ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 122129Z - 122300Z
   
   THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY DEVELOP S AND E
   OF WW 715 WITHIN THE HOUR. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   AS OF 2122Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF
   STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS INCLUDING ONE MORE DISCRETE STORM EXHIBITING
   SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION APPROACHING ERN/SERN EDGE OF WW 715 OVER
   NERN PA. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS
   OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY SWD ACROSS ERN PA AND NJ REMAINS HOT
   AND MOIST EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. LOCAL
   VWPS SHOW THAT VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS
   DISCUSSION AREA...HOWEVER GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   RESULTANT MODERATE INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE
   STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO SPREAD E AND SE
   OF WW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE A COLD
   POOL.
   
   ..MEAD.. 08/12/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
   
   42307461 41867301 40627256 40467387 39667436 39937533
   40327661 40937690 41317457

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1973
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0713 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY/FAR SW SD/NEB PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 716...
   
   VALID 130013Z - 130145Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 716 CONTINUES ACROSS ERN WY UNTIL
   05Z. ISOLD SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP/SPREAD ESE INTO FAR SW SD AND
   THE NEB PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER AN
   ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
   
   SEVERAL SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARY LARGE HAIL THREAT CONTINUE AT THIS
   TIME ACROSS ERN WY IN WW 716...WHERE AMBIENT AIRMASS REMAINS
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN PRESENCE OF STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A
   FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH BOWING
   SEGMENTS...IN ADDITION TO POSSIBILITY FOR A ROGUE TORNADO OVER NEXT
   HOUR OR TWO GIVEN MODEST LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE.
   
   WITH EWD TRANSITION OF DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
   NRN ROCKIES IMPULSE...COMBINED WITH DEGREE OF SELY LOW LEVEL
   UPSLOPE...STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO CONGEAL/EXPAND ESE INTO FAR
   SW SD/NEB PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH ISOLD
   SEVERE THREAT MAY BREACH EWD OUT OF WW 716 INTO FAR SW SD/NEB
   PANHANDLE...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH APPEARS UNLIKELY OWING TO MODEST
   INSTABILITY/LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 08/13/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...RIW...
   
   43540665 44000549 43960400 43460284 42010221 41200230
   41140385 42130599 42850662

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1975
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1118 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NY THROUGH NRN PA AND NRN NJ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 131618Z - 131845Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   FROM SRN NY INTO NRN PA AND SPREAD EWD THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
   
   A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ERN NY SWWD THROUGH SWRN NY AND
   INTO EXTREME NWRN PA. S OF THIS BOUNDARY...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   EXISTS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
   DESTABILIZE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO
   2500 J/KG LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS
   INCREASING IN VICINITY OF FRONT FROM SRN NY INTO NRN PA WHERE MODEST
   CONVERGENCE...WEAKENING CAP AND A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER
   SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WLY AND
   RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...AREA REMAINS ON SRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER
   MID LEVEL FLOW WHERE WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
   FROM 30 TO 40 KT ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORMS TO ORGANIZE.
   VERTICAL SHEAR AND MID LEVEL FLOW DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT INTO PA.
   THE 12Z PITTSBURGH SOUNDING AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS PRONOUNCED MIDDLE
   AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR OVER THE NERN STATES...AND THIS MAY FURTHER
   ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL HAIL POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED BY
   WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   
   ..DIAL.. 08/13/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...
   
   42177769 42517576 42857408 41937324 41097399 40707654
   41217846

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1976
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0146 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO THROUGH S CNTRL IL INTO N CNTRL IND AND
   NWRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 131846Z - 132045Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM CNTRL MO
   NEWD THROUGH NWRN OH NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA WILL BE ADDED TO
   SLIGHT RISK ON THE 20Z OUTLOOK.
   
   THIS AFTERNOON A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MO NEWD
   THROUGH S CNTRL IL AND INTO NRN IND AND NRN OH. SURFACE HEATING IS
   DESTABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER S OF THIS FRONT WITH RICH LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
   FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. COOL CLOUDY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLUME OF
   SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EXISTS N OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THIS IS HELPING
   TO MAINTAIN A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT. WEAK
   CONVERGENCE AND ONLY A WEAK CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. A LINE OF STORMS
   HAS ORGANIZED A COLD POOL OVER SWRN MO AND MAY BE CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AS IT CONTINUES NEWD ALONG THE
   THERMAL GRADIENT. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE THREAT
   FOR HAIL. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
   PROMOTE A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND.
   
   ..DIAL.. 08/13/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...
   
   41328618 39938942 38899361 37889229 40748405

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1977
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0441 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK...INCLUDING THE OKC METRO AREA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 132141Z - 132315Z
   
   DAMAGING MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL OK /INCLUDING THE OKC
   METRO AREA/ INTO EARLY EVENING.
   
   RELATIVELY WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL ACROSS SW OK /INVOF LAWTON AREA/
   EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A NNE MOVEMENT OF STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE
   TSTM CLUSTERS INTO CNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH TOTAL
   SHEAR IS WEAK...SWLYS IN LOW/MID LEVELS PER PURCELL OK PROFILER WILL
   SUPPORT COLD POOL PROPAGATION. AMBIENT AIRMASS ACROSS CNTRL OK AHEAD
   OF THESE TSTMS HAS GRADUALLY RECOVERED IN WAKE OF MORNING
   CONVECTION...WITH MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUPPORTIVE OF APPROX 2000
   J/KG MLCAPE WHERE MODEST INSOLATION HAS OCCURRED. DAMAGING
   MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 08/13/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
   
   35309879 35799856 36069746 35779603 34869590 34059647
   34419764

[TazzyD]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
828 PM EST SAT AUG 13 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CLAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA

* UNTIL 900 PM EST

* AT 825 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
STAUNTON...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TERRE HAUTE...AND MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
STAUNTON AROUND 845 PM EST
CENTER POINT AROUND 855 PM EST
KNIGHTSVILLE AROUND 900 PM EST

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 3950 8725 3926 8725 3924 8707 3936 8707
3936 8697 3945 8696 3945 8704 3957 8705

$$

KOCH

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1990
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN NV...WRN UT AND FAR NWRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 161731Z - 162000Z



CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY/DEVELOP OVER SERN/ECENTRAL
NV INTO WRN UT/FAR NWRN AZ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED QUICKLY OVER THE
ERN GREAT BASIN AS EARLIER CLOUD/PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA INTO SERN ID/FAR NRN UT. RECENT OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE REMAINING CINH OVER THE REGION.
COMBINED WITH A SWLY MID-HIGH LEVEL JET MAX ROTATING AROUND THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY/12Z UA ANALYSIS AND
RECENT VWP DATA FROM CEDAR CITY /30-40 KTS FROM 4-5 KM/...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR HAIL. DEGREE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR
INTO SYSTEM AND WARMING SFC TEMPERATURES/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED DMGG WING GUSTS AS WELL WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. IF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND/OR NUMBER OF SVR
STORMS INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE AREA
WOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..CROSBIE.. 08/16/2005