Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Here is the detailed information of the new record high temperature (88F) in San Juan set on the 4th day of January.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=record100102

A new record High Temperature was set at the Luis Muñoz Marin International Airport in San Juan on January 4th, 2009. At 242 PM AST, the temperature reached 88F, surpassing the previous record of 87F set back on January 4th, 1996. This is the second record high temperature recorded in San Juan since the 1st of the year. On January 2nd, 2010, the temperature soared to 89F at 12:21 PM, which surpassed the old record of 87F, also set back in 1996. The normal High Temperature for both January 2nd and 4th is 83F. These records follow an unusually warm 2009, which was the 4th warmest year on record in San Juan, PR.

...looks like Olympics records

[cycloneye]

High Surf Advisory update

This event is not like the last weeks huge event but neverless,its dangerous to be in the beaches with those rip currents.

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
941 PM AST MON JAN 4 2010

...LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL PEAK ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES OVERNIGHT...AND SLOWLY
SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-051000-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SU.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-100105T1500Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
941 PM AST MON JAN 4 2010

...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AST
TUESDAY...

LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 18 FEET...AND LOCALLY
HIGHER...ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXPOSED REEFS...BEACHES AND SHOALS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS
CURRENTS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW
OUTWARD FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM
THE COAST LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP
CURRENT...DO NOT PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR
BEARINGS RELATIVE TO THE BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH.
YOU WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE
ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM TO SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS ARE URGED
TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE BREAKING
WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF ALL SIZES
INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND STAY
OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

THE TIMES OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 1.2 FEET AT 12:10 AM TUESDAY MORNING
1.5 FEET AT 12:47 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 0.5 FEET AT 11:40 PM TONIGHT
1.0 FEET AT 12:21 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THIS DANGEROUS MARINE SITUATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Some showers will move thru from Wednesday thru Friday.Swells slowly going down but still dangerous.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST TUE JAN 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA TO THE NEAR-TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A
TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET PASS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS ARE DRY EXCEPT FOR
SOME MODEST MOISTURE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
BELOW 500 MB.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE LOCAL
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN STALL JUST NORTHWEST OR DIRECTLY
OVER NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVED NORTH THROUGH THE MONA
CHANNEL WITH SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...THAT BECAME THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNRISE EXCEPT FOR A FEW STRAGGLERS.
AN AREA OF VERY DRY AIR WILL PASS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE DAY AND IS WELL DEPICTED BY THE MODELS AND
CONFIRMED BY MIMIC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL
THEN SAG BACK SOUTHEAST WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE MAINLY BECAUSE OF AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE BETWEEN
850 AND 600 MB BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AT 12Z. MANY CONDITIONS WILL
FAVOR MODEST SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
INCLUDING A THETA-E RIDGE THAT SITS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE
AREA FROM 06/06Z TO 07/12Z...THE ARRIVAL OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE AT
700 MB THAT DOES NOT FADE UNTIL 09/00Z...THE DECREASE IN 500 MB
TEMPERATURES FROM -4.4 TO -6.2 DEGREES CELSIUS ENHANCING THE
INSTABILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A SPIKE IN THE 250 MB DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...A BAND OF HIGH VORTICITY IN THE LOWEST 150 MB OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...AND INDICATIONS THAT THE SHEAR
LINE WILL PASS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE AREA. SOME THINGS THAT WILL
KEEP THIS FROM PRODUCING MORE THAN A MODICUM OF RAIN ARE THE DRY
AIR ABOVE 600 MB... AND THE TENDENCY FOR THE WIND PATTERN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO SPLIT AROUND THE ISLAND DIVIDING THE CONVERGENCE AT
BOTH BOUNDARIES DUE TO A WEAK LOW PASSING JUST NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO. RAINS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER AND MORE SPOTTY AROUND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THIS EVENT.

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB...WITH WARMING TO -2.8 DEGREES
CELSIUS AND MUCH DRIER AIR...WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER ON SATURDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER PULSE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA AND POCKETS OF
MOISTURE AND CONVECTION WILL BRING WETTER WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND SHOULD REACH ITS PERIGEE
AROUND 12/06Z ACCORDING TO THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE
LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ASH EMISSIONS FROM
MONTSERRAT VOLCANO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT TKPK AND POSSIBLY TNCM
THROUGH AT LEAST 05/16Z. ASH HAD BEEN NOTED REACHING AS HIGH AS
FL200 YESTERDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SWELLS OF 10.5 FEET EVERY 14 SECONDS ARE STILL PASSING
BUOY 41043 ABOUT 176 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO. WOULD EXPECT...THEREFORE...FOR HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO LAST AT LEAST THROUGH 15Z. GIVEN THAT
SWELL HEIGHTS WILL DROP OFF GRADUALLY HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN
UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS IN THE CARIBBEAN
AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES.


&&

.CLIMATE...THE RECORD HIGH FOR SAN JUAN IS 89 DEGREES WHICH WAS
SET IN 1980. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT TODAY`S HIGH IN SAN
JUAN COULD REACH OR EXCEED 89 DEGREES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AT LEAST TODAY AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW GOOD
WARMING ON THE DOWNWIND SIDE OF PUERTO RICO.

[cycloneye]

High Surf Advisory extended until 8 PM tonight

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1113 AM AST TUE JAN 5 2010

...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS CONTINUE TO ARRIVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-060000-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.SU.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-100106T0000Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
1113 AM AST TUE JAN 5 2010

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING...

WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO...SWELLS OF 10 TO 11 FEET EVERY 14 SECONDS
CONTINUED TO ARRIVE AT THE BUOY 41043 LOCATED SOME 180 MILES OR SO
NORTH NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. WITH 8 TO 9 HOURS OF TRAVEL TIME THIS
MEANS THAT SWELL WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BREAKING WAVES
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 FEET ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS
CURRENTS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW
OUTWARD FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM THE
COAST LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...
DO NOT PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR BEARINGS RELATIVE
TO THE BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU WILL EVENTUALLY
LEAVE THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM
TO SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS ARE URGED
TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS SUBSIDE.
PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE BREAKING WAVES SURGING
UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF ALL SIZES INTO THE OCEAN.
YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND STAY OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

THE TIMES OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 1.5 FEET AT 12:47 PM THIS AFTERNOON

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 1.0 FEET AT 12:21 PM THIS AFTERNOON

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THIS DANGEROUS MARINE SITUATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon Discussion by NWS in San Juan

Some increase of showers by Wednesday thru Friday.Seas slowly subsiding but still dangerous.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
329 PM AST TUE JAN 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS WEAKLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN FROM THE ACROSS CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHILE AND INDUCED
SURFACE/FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR LINE STRETCHES ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FROM THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BASIN...AND WILL MAINTAIN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PREVAILING SURFACE WIND
FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST THE REST OF TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.
THIS IN TURN WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENT AIR MASS WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
SLOT OF DRY AIR NOW INVADING THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AS A WARM
AIR MASS AND VEERING SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW PREVAILED FROM SURFACE TO
500 MILLIBARS. THEREFORE...LIMITED OF NO SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...AT LEAST UNTIL
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONTAL REMNANTS FROM THE NORTH. LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS
MAY HOWEVER INDUCE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST. WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW AND STICK WITH THE CURRENT TREND OF FEW EARLY
MORNING PASSING SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THE MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA...VA
FROM MONTSERRAT CONTINUES TO AFFECT TKPK AND TNCM AT THIS TIME...WITH
THE MOST RECENT "BURST" NOW DIRECTLY OVER TKPK. EXPECT VA TO CONTINUE
TO IMPACT BOTH OF THESE SITES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...
BEFORE A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT OCCURS WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A LESSENING
OF THE ASH FOR THESE SITES

[Macrocane]

Moderate to strong winds are blowing across El Salvador right now. I have posted the observations for the first cold surge that affected the area on satrurday and sunday here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=1956812#p1956812

The met office issued today another special advisory: http://www.snet.gob.sv/ver/meteorologia/informes+especiales/

Translation

A high pressure system persists extending a ridge over Central America, this system generates moderate to strong northerly winds in El Salvador. The high pressure is related to a cold airmass that will cause temperatures to drop significantly especially during night hours, the cold front is in a dissipation process.

Forecast

Tuesday January 5: The northerly winds situation persist with winds up to 20-30 km/h (13-19 mph) and gusts up to 40-60 km/h (25-38 mph) especially in higher areas, mountains, plains, lakes and open sea. Temperatures may significantly descend at night and dawn

Wednesday January 6: Northerly winds still persist with a weak to moderate intensity with speed between 15-25 km/h (9-16 mph) and occasionally 30-40 km/h (19-25 mph) gusts. It will feel very cool especially in overnight hours.

Thursday January 7: Winds speed will decrease significantly and will come from the north and northeast. In the coast the wind will blow from the south during afternoon hours. Temperatures will stay cool at night.

The temperatures may drop down to 8-10 °C (46-50 °F) in higher areas and mountains, between 12-14 °C (53-57 °F) in the valleys and 18-20 °C (64-68 °F) in the coast.

[Macrocane]

Cycloneye, did the high temp break the record today? I hope you have some relief to that warmer than normal weather soon.

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, did the high temp break the record today? I hope you have some relief to that warmer than normal weather soon.

Today it came close (One Degree short) of the record 89F. Lets see if that weak front pushes southward in the next couple of days.I would like to have those temperatures you have down at El Salvador.

[cycloneye]

High Surf Advisory Extended until Noon AST Wednesday

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
800 PM AST TUE JAN 5 2010

...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-060800-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.SU.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-100106T1600Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
800 PM AST TUE JAN 5 2010

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AST WEDNESDAY...

THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL NOON AST
WEDNESDAY AS DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO IMPROVE.

LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 15 FEET...OR
GREATER...ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXPOSED REEFS...SHOALS AND
COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
THROUGH NOON AST WEDNESDAY. THESE LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL RESULT
IN HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS
CURRENTS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW
OUTWARD FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM THE
COAST LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...
DO NOT PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR BEARINGS RELATIVE
TO THE BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU WILL EVENTUALLY
LEAVE THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM
TO SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS ARE URGED
TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE BREAKING
WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF ALL SIZES
INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND STAY
OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

THE TIMES OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 1.3 FEET AT 1:29 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING
1.3 FEET AT 1:30 PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 0.6 FEET AT 2:15 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING
0.8 FEET AT 12:30 PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THIS DANGEROUS MARINE SITUATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[cycloneye]

Macrocane,they put this information tonight and not this afternoon,that is why I said earlier to your post about not breaking or having it tied but in fact it tied the record of 89F.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=record100102

Another record high temperature was reached at the Luis Muñoz Marin International Airport in San Juan on January 5th, 2010. At 1:29 pm, the temperature reached 89F, which tied the record high temperature for January 5th, set back in 1980.

[Macrocane]

So the high reached the record again, this weekend a strong cold front will be pushed down to Central America, then it will move east and it seems possible that it will affect Puerto Rico early next week bringing lower temperatures to you.

[cycloneye]

So the high reached the record again, this weekend a strong cold front will be pushed down to Central America, then it will move east and it seems possible that it will affect Puerto Rico early next week bringing lower temperatures to you.

If GFS is right,the front will reach Puerto Rico by next Monday.I hope this abnormal warm pattern changes very soon to get normal temperatures and some rain to not be later in the dry months of Febuary and March talking about a drought and rationing of water.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Today in Puerto Rico and I am sure in Centralamerica is Three Kings day,a holiday for the kids that recieve toys and other gifts.Another warm day comming?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
551 AM AST WED JAN 6 2010

.UPDATE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS FORMED EARLY
ON THE SOUTH COAST AND MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER ONSHORE THAN
EXPECTED. THEREFORE INCREASED THE POPS THERE AND RE-ISSUED THE
ZONES SO THAT THERE WILL BE A MENTION OF SHOWERS IN ZONES 3 AND 7
DURING THE MORNING. NO CHANGE IN THE 12 HOUR POPS SHOULD BE
NOTICED HOWEVER.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM AST WED JAN 6 2010/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA TENDS TO KEEP PASSING SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 WEST LONGITUDE RIDGES INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SHORT
WAVES AND STRONGER FLOW ARE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA ON A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK FRONT WITH SOME CONVECTION IS HOLDING
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IS COMING UP ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND LOOPING BACK
INTO THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO
RICO. ALTHOUGH A WEAK PULSE WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY A
LITTLE CLOSER TOMORROW...THE CONVERGENCE ZONE FORMING ALONG THIS
LOOP OF MOISTURE AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE MORE IMPORTANT
FOR OUR MOST IMMEDIATE WEATHER.

DISCUSSION...MODELS DID FAIRLY WELL YESTERDAY AT SHOWING MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT OF SEEMINGLY
DRY AIR THAT EXTENDS FROM A LOW IN EASTERN CANADA TO EASTERN CUBA.
ALTHOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OR DEEPER THAN THE LOWEST PART OF
THE MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT THAT THE MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF PUERTO RICO. CULEBRA AND VIEQUES MAY ALSO SEE SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...WITHOUT MORE IMPETUS FROM THE FRONT TO THE
NORTHWEST...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MAY SEE LITTLE OR NO RAIN FROM
THIS SYSTEM TODAY OR TOMORROW AND PERHAPS NOT EVEN SOLID CLOUD
COVER...AND I AM EXPECTING SUNNY SKIES IN SAINT CROIX FOR MOST THE
THE DAY. THE FRONT RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND FLOW
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...AGAIN...BRINGS SOME PATCHES OF MOISTURE LATER
IN THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SOME
WEATHER TO THE AREA ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...GENERATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR TJMZ...TJBQ...TJPS AND
POSSIBLY TJSJ. PILOTS FLYING TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAY CROSS
THROUGH WORSE CONDITIONS TODAY. VA FROM MONTSERRAT CONTINUES TO
AFFECT TKPK AND TNCM AT THIS TIME...WITH NO IMMEDIATE CHANGE TO
THIS SCENARIO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT A SLIGHT WIND
SHIFT LATER IN THE DAY TO ALLOW FOR A LESSENING OF ASH ACROSS
THESE SITES.

MARINE...SWELLS FROM THE LAST EVENT ARE JUST DYING DOWN. HOWEVER
THE SAME STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING AROUND OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS SENDING A NEW SET OF SWELLS...ALBEIT NOT AS STRONG NOR
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THAT WILL REACH OUR
OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THESE SWELL WILL
SPREAD INTO THE MONA PASSAGE...BUT THIS EVENT IS FAIRLY BRIEF. THE
ONLY AREA THAT CAN SUSTAIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL SATURDAY
IS AMZ710. WOULD EXPECT THAT SOME RIP CURRENTS WILL STILL BE
GENERATED WITH THIS EVENT HOWEVER...SO BEACH-GOERS STILL NEED TO
BE WARY OF THE WATER DURING THIS EVENT.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon Discussion

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST WED JAN 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDE BAND OF MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION AND THAT ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONTAL SHEAR LINE/INDUCED
TROUGH CONTINUED TO MERGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS LOCAL
AREA...CONTINUED TO SLOWLY FLATTEN MAINTAINING A PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW...BUT SLIGHTLY
ERODING MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENT CAP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE INDUCED PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT ZONE HAD SET UP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. EXPECT INCREASED
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY...WITH AREAS OF MOSTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER
ALTHOUGH NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...EXPECT SOME AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE LATER FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY
OVER LAND LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THEN FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT
LESSER ACTIVITY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS THE CONVERGENT ZONE
WILL BE ALIGNED MAINLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND NORTHWEST INTO THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC.

LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL...AND ALONG WITH
NAM AND UKMET MODEL ALL SUGGEST THE FRONTAL MOISTURE FIELD TO CONVERGE
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...BEFORE BEING PUSHED BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE AREA...AND INDUCES A MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW ONCE
AGAIN. THEREFORE MAINTAINED CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
WITH POSSIBILITY OF AREAS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS MAINLY DURING THE DAY AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL CLEARING AND DECREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PR AND VI
TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OF
5-8KFT AND A LIGHT ESE WIND FLOW GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS...
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A PASSING
SHRA THROUGH 06/23Z. VA FROM MONTSERRAT CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
TKPK AND TNCM...AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION ANTICIPATED
THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT VA TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 06/23Z...EVENTUALLY
TRACKING WEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE ESE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
CONTINUED DECEASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER PULSE WILL REACH OUR OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD INTO THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS SWELL
WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ONCE AGAIN
BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

[abajan]

...Today in Puerto Rico and I am sure in Centralamerica is Three Kings day,a holiday for the kids that recieve toys and other gifts...

Okay, let me see if I get this right. Kids in Puerto Rico get gifts on Christmas Day and again on Three Kings Day? Or do they only get them on Three Kings Day?

[cycloneye]

...Today in Puerto Rico and I am sure in Centralamerica is Three Kings day,a holiday for the kids that recieve toys and other gifts...

Okay, let me see if I get this right. Kids in Puerto Rico get gifts on Christmas Day and again on Three Kings Day? Or do they only get them on Three Kings Day?

Like a daily double joy for the kids here.Yes,Santa comes first and Three Kings on the 6th of January.Plenty to play with.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 PM AST WED JAN 6 2010

PRC003-005-011-013-017-027-065-071-099-115-117-131-062330-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0001.100106T2033Z-100106T2330Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-MOCA PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-AGUADILLA PR-
AGUADA PR-BARCELONETA PR-CAMUY PR-HATILLO PR-RINCON PR-ANASCO PR-
ARECIBO PR-
433 PM AST WED JAN 6 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...MOCA...QUEBRADILLAS...SAN SEBASTIAN...AGUADILLA...
AGUADA...BARCELONETA...CAMUY...HATILLO...RINCON...ANASCO AND
ARECIBO

* UNTIL 730 PM AST

* AT 428 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN INTENSITY
AND AREAL COVERAGE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THEREFORE...BRIEF
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...MINOR PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Raining here!!! Yes,finnally for a change from the warm spell of the past few days.Morning discussion below radar.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
442 AM AST THU JAN 7 2010

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LOCAL AREA. WEAK FLOW AND MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW FOR CONVERGENCE AND DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
MUCH OF PR THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS WEEKEND...BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH
AND ALLOW FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES CONTROL UNTIL NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BY NEXT TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED SATURATED MOISTURE PROFILE
TO 700MB AS TAIL END OF LONG WAVE ATLC TROUGH STALLS OVER REGION
AHEAD OF STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SOME LOW LEVEL VORT FEATURES
EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY NEAR 20 N 65 W HELPING TO PUSH NORTHERLY
FLOW TO N SHORES OF PR. WITH NO MECHANISM TO PROGRESS MOISTURE OUT
OF THE AREA FOR NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND A WEAK WIND FLOW...WILL BE
SUBJECT TO SLOW MOVING HEAVY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WRF SOLUTION SHOWING HEAVY RAIN OVER MUCH OF PR TODAY...ESPECIALLY
THE INTERIOR...NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS. GREATLY
EXPANDED AREA OF NUMEROUS COVERAGE AND WENT WITH 70 PERCENT POPS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS WRF HAS PERFORMED VERY WELL DURING LAST
FEW STALLED BOUNDARY EVENTS...AND ITS SURFACE WIND SOLUTIONS ARE
INITIALIZING WELL. BOTH NAM AND WRF MODELS SHOW BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY
LIFT TO THE NORTH BY MID DAY FRIDAY AS 700 HIGH FLATTENS OVER
TROPICAL ATLC ALLOWING VERY DRY AIR MASS TO BUILD IN. WEEKEND LOOKS
GREAT...WENT WITH MINIMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY.
AFTERWARD...GFS SHOWS YET ANOTHER DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE NW ATLC TO SEND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE W ATLC
AND TOWARDS LOCAL AREA BY TUESDAY...WITH EXACTLY THE SAME STALLING
BOUNDARY AHEAD OF SUBTROP RIDGE TO TAKE SHAPE...LIKELY RESULTING
IN WETTER THAN CLIMO POPS WITH LOWER THAN CLIMO WINDS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
LOCAL REGION...MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THESE
SHOWERS ARE GENERATING BRIEFED MVFR CONDITION TO THE TJBQ...TJSJ AND
TIST...DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED TO SHOWERS.
OTHERS TERMINALS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED BY THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
TJPS AND TJMZ. THIS WEATHER SCENARIO IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

[cycloneye]

I suspect that we will have flood advisorys popping up today.Here is the first one.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
848 AM AST THU JAN 7 2010

PRC021-029-031-061-087-119-127-139-071530-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0003.100107T1248Z-100107T1530Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-
SAN JUAN PR-LOIZA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
848 AM AST THU JAN 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...CANOVANAS...CAROLINA...SAN
JUAN...LOIZA AND RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 1130 AM AST

* AT 830 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS LARGE SECTIONS
OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. TEMPORARILY REDUCED VISIBILITIES...
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING IN AREAS
OF POOR DRAINAGE...CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE
SHOWERS...ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH 1130 AM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.