Severe weather outbreak - May 29-31

[HarlequinBoy]

I am sensing something tomorrow that is pretty much not being picked up by forecasts. It seems the system is moving slower now, and the threat will be more eastern OH/PA/MD/WV than the Mid-Atlantic. Something along the line of 1985 (hopefully not as severe - helicity isn't that great).

IDK, that was a very intense outbreak. The SPC usually doesn't bust that bad nowadays and they only have northern Arkansas, southern Missouri, and northeast Oklahoma hatched.

[HarlequinBoy]

Confirmed: the Republic County tornado last night was at least EF3, depending on what Hastings and Omaha find (it went through three jurisdictions).

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_ ... 0&source=0

I think EF3 will be its final rating. The worst damage was surveyed in Jewell County I think.

[KWT]

000
WUUS51 KILN 310815
SVRILN
OHC041-049-159-310900-
/O.NEW.KILN.SV.W.0048.080531T0815Z-080531T0900Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
415 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
DELAWARE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...
NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...
SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...

* UNTIL 500 AM EDT.

* AT 410 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS
TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OSTRANDER...MOVING EAST AT
60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
POWELL...
DELAWARE...
WORTHINGTON...
MINERVA PARK...
WESTERVILLE...
SUNBURY...

IN ADDITION...SHAWNEE HILLS...COLUMBUS ZOO...STRATFORD...RIVERLEA...
DELAWARE STATE PARK...LEWIS CENTER...ALUM CREEK STATE PARK AND
LEONARDSBURG ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

LAT...LON 4035 8275 4035 8274 4004 8278 4009 8321
4011 8321 4011 8332 4037 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 0815Z 263DEG 51KT 4028 8318

$$

[tomboudreau]

Tornado Watch has been issued for Eastern Ohio, Panhandle of West Virgina, far western Maryland, and Southeastern Pennsylvania until 11:00 AM. Guess I'm not heading back to sleep anytime soon.

SEL9

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 399
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
410 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR WESTERN MARYLAND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 410 AM UNTIL 1100 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST OF COLUMBUS
OHIO TO 5 MILES NORTH OF LATROBE PENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 398...

DISCUSSION...BROKEN AREA OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED MESO-BETA SCALE
CIRCULATIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND SHIFT E ACROSS OH/WRN PA LATER
THIS MORNING AS REGION IS GLANCED BY PHASING MID LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA.
SBCAPE IS WEAK. BUT GIVEN CONFLUENT...INCREASINGLY MOIST WSWLY SFC
FLOW... AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT...SETUP MAY SUPPORT ADDITION EMBEDDED
ROTATING STRUCTURES. THESE MAY OCCASIONALLY STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE
ISOLD TORNADOES GIVEN 50-60 KT WLY FLOW IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27040.


...CORFIDI

[KWT]

000
WUUS51 KPBZ 310838
SVRPBZ
OHC031-310930-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0010.080531T0838Z-080531T0930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
438 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COSHOCTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO...

* UNTIL 530 AM EDT

* AT 436 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEW
GUILFORD...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
NELLIE...COOPERDALE...WARSAW...LAYLAND...BLISSFIELD...CONESVILLE...
COSHOCTON...WEST LAFAYETTE...PLAINFIELD AND BAKERSVILLE

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE. 1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN
DO SO SAFELY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR WESTERN MARYLAND AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 4044 8219 4045 8217 4045 8210 4044 8171
4037 8171 4036 8160 4021 8161 4021 8166
4015 8166 4014 8176 4016 8218 4022 8218
4023 8219
TIME...MOT...LOC 0838Z 272DEG 54KT 4036 8226

$$

15

[HarlequinBoy]

Mod risk from DC up into west Mass. Chance for a few tornadoes.

A 60-65 KT WLY H5 JET ATOP WSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BOOST BULK
SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. PRIMARY THREATS
WILL BE DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...CHANNELED SLY
FLOW ACROSS SERN NY...EXTREME WRN MA...NWRN CT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ENHANCED RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES.

[KWT]

000
WUUS51 KPBZ 310853
SVRPBZ
OHC119-310945-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0011.080531T0853Z-080531T0945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
453 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
MUSKINGUM COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO...

* UNTIL 545 AM EDT

* AT 450 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12
MILES NORTHWEST OF DILLON STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 57 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO EAST
FULTONHAM...DRAKE...ZANESVILLE...ADAMSVILLE...CANNELVILLE...
FERNCLIFF...BRIDGEVILLE...DUNCAN FALLS...PHILO...OTSEGO...
NORWICH...CHANDLERSVILLE...BLUE ROCK STATE PARK...RURALDALE...NEW
CONCORD AND HIGH HILL

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE. 1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN
DO SO SAFELY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR WESTERN MARYLAND AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 3995 8223 3995 8221 3997 8220 4016 8218
4014 8171 3993 8173 3992 8168 3975 8170
3977 8207 3981 8208 3982 8217 3990 8216
3991 8223 3993 8224
TIME...MOT...LOC 0853Z 291DEG 50KT 4012 8224

$$

15

[tomboudreau]

Already have thunder and lightning in the area. Waiting for the big batch of heavy rain to hit, then the severe storms move in in a couple of hours. Not going to head back to bed anytime soon. Will crash later this afternoon when this threat ends.

[KWT]

Keep us updated tomboudreau, no more severe thunderstorm warnings since the last post of mine.

[Melissa]

Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST *DO NOT USE AFTER 10 AM*
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
649 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

KSZ067>069-082-083-092>094-098-311500-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-CHAUTAUQUA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ARKANSAS CITY-WINFIELD...EL DORADO...
HUTCHINSON...NEWTON...WICHITA
649 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

.NOW...
THROUGH 10 AM...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING AND MOVING EASTWARD AT 30 MPH ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE AND 60
MPH WIND GUSTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

[wx247]

A ferocious storm is trekking across NE Oklahoma this morning. It has hail up to baseball sized and winds were warned earlier of up to 80 mph! I haven't seen any damage reports with this storm in the last little bit so hopefully it is relaxing somewhat. My GRLevel3 is registering hail of 4.25" with this storm! I have never seen that before!!!

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 311248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND NORTHEAST...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN KS AND NRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS EWD
THROUGH THE OH /TN VLYS INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD. BROAD
TROUGH NOW OVER THE GRT LKS WILL CONTINUE E INTO WRN QUEBEC/NY/PA AS
UPSTREAM RIDGE NOW OVER THE RCKYS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BUILDS E INTO
THE HI PLNS...AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROUND BASE OF LOW OFF THE
WA CST.

AT THE SFC...LOW ASSOCD WITH THE GRT LKS SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NEAR
GEORGIAN BAY THIS MORNING TO NRN VT THIS EVENING BEFORE CONTINUING E
TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY SUNDAY. PRIMARY COLD FRONT TRAILING
SW FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE E/SE ACROSS NY/PA AND NEW ENGLAND LATER
TODAY...WHILE WRN END BECOMES MORE OR LESS STATIONARY FROM WRN KY
INTO NRN PARTS OF AR AND OK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LEE TROUGH E OF
THE APLCNS AND VARIOUS CONFLUENCE AXES WILL BE ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF
LOW-LVL UPLIFT.

...NEW ENGLAND SW TO CAROLINAS/KY/TN...
A SERIES OF WEAKENING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE
E/ESE ACROSS THE ERN OH VLY AND THE NRN APLCNS THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING. GIVEN MODERATELY TO STRONGLY-SHEARED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
REGION...EPISODIC EMBEDDED ROTATING STRUCTURES MAY POSE A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS AND/OR BRIEF TORNADOES.

CLOUD DEBRIS SPREADING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STORM CLUSTERS WILL
INHIBIT SFC HEATING OVER MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
NORTHEAST. BUT EVEN WITH MODEST HEATING...COMBINATION OF STRONG
WIND FIELD...MODERATE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR RENEWED STORM
DEVELOPMENT/SVR WEATHER BY EARLY AFTN.

SATELLITE-DERIVED PW DATA SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES ATTM ALONG TWO AXES...ONE FROM OH INTO
WRN PA/WRN NY...AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC CSTL PLN. MID
60S F SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD REACH ERN PA/SERN NY BY EARLY
AFTN...WITH UPR 60S FROM MD/DE SWD. IN ADDITION TO EXPECTED
REDEVELOPMENT OF OVERNIGHT STORM CLUSTERS...OTHER STORMS LIKELY WILL
FORM ALONG LEE TROUGH FROM SE NY INTO VA AND THE CAROLINAS...AND
ALONG/AHEAD OF DIFFUSE COLD FRONT OVER THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS FROM WRN NY SW INTO WV/KY.

60+ KT DIFFLUENT WLY 500 MB FLOW ATOP 30+ KT WSWLY LOW-LVL FLOW WILL
YIELD AMPLE DEEP SHEAR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS/BOWS...ESPECIALLY WITH
STORMS ALONG LEE TROUGH IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SOMEWHAT WEAKER
SHEAR WILL EXIST FARTHER S. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DMGG WINDS/HAIL...TERRAIN-INDUCED BACKING OF THE LOW-LVL FLOW ACROSS
SE NY...AND SLIGHTLY-BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW INVOF DIFFUSE WARM FRONT
IN WRN NEW ENGLAND...COULD ENHANCE LOW-LVL STORM ROTATION AND THE
RISK OF TORNADOES IN THOSE AREAS.

TSTMS SHOULD PEAK AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING IN ALL EXCEPT
PARTS OF SRN VA/CNTRL-ERN CAROLINAS...WHERE LINGERING CELLS MAY
REMAIN STG/SVR WELL INTO THE EVENING.

...SRN-CNTRL PLNS INTO OZARKS/LWR OH AND TN VLYS...
PERSISTENT WAA/RICH MOISTURE INFLOW ON WRN END OF STALLING FRONT HAS
SUPPORTED OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD SVR STORMS OVER SRN KS/FAR
NRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL PERSIST IN SOME FORM OR ANOTHER
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BOTH
EWD ALONG FRONT INTO THE WRN KY/TN...AND NW INTO WRN/CNTRL KS.

GIVEN QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW...CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STEEP
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...AND MDT MID-LVL FLOW ON SRN EDGE OF THE
WLYS...THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC BOUTS OF SVR
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AS SBCAPE INCREASES TO 3000 J/KG.
ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG
WIND COULD ALSO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IF STORM COLD POOLS CONSOLIDATE
AND LEAD TO ENHANCED E/SE MCS MOTION. IN ADDITION...A LOCALIZED
THREAT FOR TORNADOES COULD ALSO EVOLVE. SUCH A THREAT WOULD BE
GREATEST ON WRN/SRN FRINGE OF THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...AS VERY MOIST SWLY LLJ IMPINGES ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SEGMENTS THAT BECOME STATIONARY AND ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE
WNWLY MEAN FLOW.

...UPR MS VLY...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SE ON WRN SIDE OF DEPARTING LARGER SCALE
TROUGH MAY SUPPORT DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS OVER MN SEWD INTO
NRN/ERN IA AND NWRN IL. COLD MID-LVL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
35-40 KT NWLY MID-LVL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SVR STORMS
WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WINDS...SIMILAR TO THE ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTED
PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY YESTERDAY.

...CNTRL HI PLNS TO NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
SCTD STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM LATE TODAY IN AREA OF WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW
IN ERN CO/SW NEB N OF STALLED FRONT. GIVEN 40S F SFC DEWPOINTS AND
BAND OF 40 KT WLY FLOW ALOFT...A FEW OF THESE COULD BECOME
SUSTAINED/POSSIBLY ROTATE AND POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLD TORNADO.

ELSEWHERE...LEAD IMPULSE MOVING NEWD AROUND SE SIDE OF OFFSHORE LOW
MAY ENHANCE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF ID AND NE ORE LATER
TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE MAY TRAIN AND YIELD LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY CLOUD-LAYER FLOW. OTHER
SCTD...POTENTIALLY STRONG DIURNAL STORMS COULD OCCUR EWD INTO SRN MT
AND NRN WY.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 05/31/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1341Z (9:41AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Ed Mahmoud]

I hope this doesn't effect 'Sliced Bread', Joey Logano's NASCAR debut in the Nationwide Series race from Dover Downs in the #20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota.

[CrazyC83]

SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 402...CORRECTED
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

CORRECTED FOR OMITTED COUNTIES IN EASTERN MD

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
DELAWARE
FAR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
SOUTHEAST OHIO
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
WEST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1020 AM UNTIL
500 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ATHENS
OHIO TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAKEHURST NEW JERSEY. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 399...WW 400...WW 401...

DISCUSSION...ACTIVE AFTERNOON ON TAP FOR THIS REGION AS STRONG FLOW
ALOFT OVERSPREADS A WARM/HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF EFFECTIVE
OUTFLOW/CLOUDS NOW PERSISTING OVER MUCH OF PA. SEVERE THREAT WILL
EVOLVE IN MULTIPLE MODES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW
ECHOES. THEREFORE...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES TODAY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.


...EVANS

[CrazyC83]

Date of the issuance of Watch #400 (showing where we are relative to past years):

2000 - June 1
2001 - June 11
2002 - June 8
2003 - May 16
2004 - June 5
2005 - June 4
2006 - May 25
2007 - June 16
2008 - May 31

[wx247]

Interesting stat Crazy, thanks.

I don't recall ever seeing this many days in a row of severe weather as strong. Does anyone else?

[CrazyC83]

Interesting stat Crazy, thanks.

I don't recall ever seeing this many days in a row of severe weather as strong. Does anyone else?

Me either, the last time it was this active so often was May 2003 - the first half of that had a tornado outbreak almost every day. The next threat for a tornado outbreak probably begins next Thursday.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1001 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NERN OK...SWRN MO...NWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 400...401...

VALID 311501Z - 311600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
400...401...CONTINUES.

WARM ADVECTION THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SEWD
ACROSS SERN KS AND NERN OK. DESPITE WEAKENING AND BACKING
LLJ...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED
INTO PAWNEE/PAYNE COUNTIES IN OK. THIS NEW ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY
QUITE ELEVATED IN NATURE BUT MAY CONTINUE TO SEE UPWARD GROWTH AS IT
SPREADS DOWNSTREAM TOWARD TULSA AREA. A FEW COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO WW400 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...WILL
REMAIN THE PREDOMINATE SEVERE THREAT MAINLY FROM THE SERN MOST
COUNTIES OF KS INTO NWRN AR. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE NEGLIGIBLE
WEST OF I-35 IN KS UNTIL MUCH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

..DARROW.. 05/31/2008


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

37849629 36709344 35909340 35929542 35959737

[Bunkertor]

[wx247]

Visible satellite shows excellent clearing behind the morning complex in OK/KS/MO/AR. Looks like we will have initiation back west later this afternoon!