Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all the Caribbean and Centralamerican friends.

Morning Discussion by NWS San Juan

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 AM AST THU JAN 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHEAST OF HISPANOLA TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. SMALL
LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS IS MOVING
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST EXITED THE
NORTHEAST OF THE UNITED SATES...WHICH HAS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION JUST TO OUR EAST IS
MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODELS AS TO
HOW CLOSE THIS PERTURBATION WILL GET TO PR AND THE VI FOR THE
AFTERNOON. GFS HAS A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL MAKE THE
PERTURBATION MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA...WHILE THE NAM IS A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE MOISTURE FROM THE PERTURBATION
CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA BY HAVING A MORE EASTERLY FLOW...MAKING
THE PERTURBATION MOVE MORE TO THE WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BRING
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 1.65 FOR THE NAM AND 1.54 FOR
THE GFS AT 18Z...BEFORE AND AFTER 18Z THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE LOWER.

WITH THIS EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE...THE
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS INCREASE OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE INTERIOR...NORTHWEST...NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE MOISTURE IS HIGHEST
IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...LOCAL EFFECTS AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING. THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS AND THE CAP IS
WEAK SO AT THIS TIME NO INTENSE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING...THEN IN THE AFTERNOON THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DUE
TO THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW. ALSO...THERE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH IS NOW PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...MOVING TO THE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO OUR AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT
ACROSS TKPK AND TNCM AS AREA OF MOISTURE MOVES OVER REGION. SOME
SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE EXPECTED. MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL 21/14Z AT
TIST AND TISX. CLDS...SHOWERS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED
AFT 21/14Z ACROSS TJSJ AND TJPS. THESE CONDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ AFT 21/17Z WITH MVFR LIKELY
AFT 21/16Z IN TJMZ. 21/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT EASTERLY
WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 5K FEET...BECOMING FROM THE SOUTHEAST
BUT STILL LIGHT FROM 5-15K FEET AND THEN FROM THE WEST AND STRONGER
ALOFT.


&&

.MARINE...
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD GENERALLY EXPECT
WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE OUTER WATERS OF
THE ATLANTIC TODAY.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon Discussion by NWS San Juan

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
206 PM AST THU JAN 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AND WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION
TONIGHT. STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELITE IMAGES SHOWS SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST. FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...LOCAL WRF MODEL HANDLE
BETTER THE CURRENT WEATHER SITUATION. LATEST WRF MODEL RUN ONLY
DEVELOPED SOME SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE...DUE TO THE FACT
THAT WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE SHIFTING MORE SOUTHEAST...AND SOME
HIGH CLOUDS HAS DELAYED SOMEWHAT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...12Z GFS AND NAM12 MODELS INDICATED BETTER
MOISTURE WILL BE TOMORROW AROUND 12Z...WHEN THE BACKING EDGE OF
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH...AN AREA OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA BRIEFLY SATURDAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT SOMEWHAT
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...FOR SUNDAY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH JUST
EXITED THE NORTHEAST OF THE UNITED STATES...WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES EAST...AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...WILL APPROACH THE
LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY
MONDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ON
TUESDAY...WHEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY..OR THE REMNANTS OF IT...WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...SIGMET BOX PERFECTLY SHOWING AREA OF VA EMITTING FROM
TRPG WITH CLOUD MOVING WNW TOWARDS TISX. MADE MENTION OF VA IN TKPK
TAF...BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TISX SINCE ASH LIKELY TO
BE DISSIPATED THAT FAR WEST. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
MOST SITES NEXT 6-12 HOURS WITH MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA AT TJBQ
18-22Z. MORE WEATHER EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING...-SHRA AND
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FOR TIST...TISX AND TJSJ 06-12Z.

[msbee]

all day long

[cycloneye]

:raincloud: all day long

Friday may be Puerto Rico's turn for that.If it were summer now,this surface trough looks like a tropical wave and would be called that way.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Some showers today for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST FRI JAN 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
MORNING...WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY. A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC...WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD...APPROACHING
TO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AND SATELLITES IMAGES EARLY
THIS MORNING...DEPICTED AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND
THE NORTHERN U.S.V.I. THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
MAINTAINS THE CORE OF THE MOISTURE TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO...BUT AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING.
GFS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A TRAILING AREA OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SLIGHTLY
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AIR WILL
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH FOR THE MOST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SEABOARD EARLY
SUNDAY...JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...PUSHING THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...BAND OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLDS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA...BTW ERN PR AND THE USVI WILL BRING PASSING SHRA AND
PSBL ISOLD TSTM EN ROUTE BTW TISX...TIST...TJSJ...TJNR...AT LEAST
UNTIL 22/11Z. THEREAFTER MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL EN
ROUTE AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...SOME AFTN SHRA
DEVELOPMENT STILL PSBL MAINLY OVR WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR BTW 22/16Z-22/21Z. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR CONDS DUE TO PASSING SHRA. ELSEWHERE...ONGOING VA EMISSIONS
FROM TRPG NOT DISCERNIBLE AT THIS TIME DUE TO CLDS...HOWEVER
PREVIOUS SIGMET AND PRESENT WND PROFILE SUGGEST GENERAL LOW LVL
WND FLOW TO CONTINUE FROM SE...AND IF ANY ERUPTION OCCURS...VA
COULD PSBLY SPREAD TOWARDS OR OVR TISX AND TIST LATER TODAY.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
228 PM AST FRI JAN 22 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 PM AST FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
TRUJILLO ALTO...CANOVANAS...CAROLINA...SAN JUAN...LOIZA AND RIO
GRANDE

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
CAMPO RICO...CANOVANAS...CAROLINA...LA DOLORES...LOIZA...RIO
GRANDE...SAN ISIDRO...SANTA BARBARA...SUAREZ AND VIEQUES

AT 223 PM AST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER INLAND SECTIONS OF CAROLINA AND
CANOVANAS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH. THESE WILL AFFECT
COASTAL SECTIONS OF CAROLINA BETWEEN 2:30 PM AND 3:00 PM. INTENSE
RAINFALL WITH UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR AND VERY
LOW VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR
FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
OFF THE COAST AROUND 3 PM. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND
DRIVE WITH CAUTION.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon Discussion by NWS San Juan

It looks like our winter-type pattern returns by Monday,Yes!!!!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
233 PM AST FRI JAN 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE REGION.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC...WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD...
APPROACHING THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE WESTERN PART OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOME
AREAS...THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING NEAR 10 TO 15 KTS...THEREFORE...NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED
THROUGH 2PM AST. COMPUTERS MODELS DO NOT AGREE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NAM12 HAVE DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY...WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION AROUND 18Z...MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. MEANWHILE...GFS MAINTAIN
ENOUGH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. PROGNOSIS SOUNDINGS FROM
GFS INDICATED PW VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1.2 AND 1.5 INCHES THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE NAM SHOWS PW VALUES BETWEEN 1 TO 1.3
INCHES. MODELS ONLY AGREE IN WINDS SPEED BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND
850 MB LEVEL...WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
DUE TO THE FACT THAT LATEST SATELITE IMAGES AND MIMIC TPW PRODUCT
FROM CIMSS SHOWS AN AREA OF DRIER AIR EAST OF THE AREA...NAM
FORECAST SEEMED TO BE ON TRACK WITH FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD...APPROACHING THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GFS COMPUTER MODEL SUGGEST THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS WILL LINGER ACROSS HE LOCAL AREA
AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...WHEN A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA AND WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANT AWAY FROM OUR LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 23/12Z.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN EXCELLENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT A
NEW GROUP OF NORTH SWELLS IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY THAT
SHOULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SEAS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
440 AM AST SAT JAN 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST ACROSS PUERTO RICO
EARLY IN THE MORNING...WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. A SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
AND DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD...
APPROACHING TO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AND SATELLITES IMAGES EARLY
THIS MORNING...DEPICTED AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
SHOWERS...EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL WEAKEN WHILE MOVE TO THE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE FA
THIS MORNING. ACCORDINGLY TO THE NAM GUIDANCE...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST...EARLY THIS MORNING...TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IF THIS SOLUTION VERIFY...THE
BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WELL TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE
FA...WILL MOVE AGAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. THE GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS SOME MOISTURE OVER THE FA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS BUT IT IS LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM.

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER...ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...
WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME...AN ASSOCIATED DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SEABOARD
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING THE WEAK AND
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE ONLY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES AND
EN ROUTE ACROSS LOCAL FLYING AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL
IMPACTS IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LIGHT SSE
WIND FLOW...ANY VA EMISSIONS FROM MONTSERRAT/TRPG WILL LIKELY AFFECT
AREAS OVR AND AROUND TKPK AT LEAST UNTIL 23/12Z...HOWEVER DECIDED TO
LEAVE TNCM VFR FOR NOW AS SO FAR NO PIREP OR OBS INDICATED VA
REACHING THAT FAR NORTH.

&&

MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND...BUT A NEW GROUP OF NORTH NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY THAT SHOULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SEAS
AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND ACROSS
THE MONA PASSAGE.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon Discussion by NWS San Juan

Cold front arrives by Monday with winter-type weather for Puerto Rico eastward to Northern Leewards.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST SAT JAN 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN ATLC WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY EAST WITH ASSOCIATED CDFNT PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS MON. MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE TO DOMINATE MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PR/USVI TO REMAIN UNDER A LIGHT WIND FLOW AND A
SUBSIDENT/DRY REGIME NEXT 18 HRS OR SO BEFORE CDFNT NOW ANALYZED
ALONG 24N APPROACHES THE AREA MON. SHALLOW FRONT WILL BRING
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND SCT-NMRS SHOWERS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO THE AREA TUE. SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE TUE BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER
LONGER. BASED ON RECENT EVENTS AND EXPERIENCE HAVE SIDED WITH THE
CLOUDIER/WETTER GFS SOLUTION AS OPPOSED TO THE VERY DRY LOOKING
NAM.

HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE ATLC LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
THIS FRONT WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY TUE WITH CDFNT PUSHING
POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ANTICIPATING ABOUT
A DAY OR PERHAPS TWO OF CLOUDY AND SHOWERY/DREARY CONDITIONS AS
OPPOSED TO LAST FRONT WHICH CAUSED SVRL DAYS OF WET WEATHER AND
RECORD RAINFALL. FRONT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY WED THAT WE
SHOULD RETURN TO OUR TYPICALLY JANUARY WEATHER BY THEN. REST OF
NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. VA
EFFECTING THE AREA OF TKPK...BUT WILL STAY WELL AWAY FROM ALL PR
OR USVI SITES.


&&

.MARINE...EXCELLENT CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW. HOWEVER SEAS WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY SUN NIGHT AS LARGE NORTH SWELLS BEGIN TO ARRIVE
INTO THE ATLC WATERS. COMBINATION OF EASTERLY WIND WAVES AND NRLY
SWELLS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE AND
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS MON-TUE. WILL ISSUE SCA FOR AMZ710
BEGINNING SUN NIGHT BUT HOLD OFF ON HIGH SURF ADVZY SINCE
CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET UNTIL MON OR FOURTH PERIOD.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKELY OCCURRED ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS LAST
NIGHT AS AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 02Z SHOWED A SWATH OF 50+ KT WINDS
NEAR BERMUDA. SINCE ASCAT TENDS TO UNDER ESTIMATE WINDS AT THIS
RANGE IT IS LIKELY THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRED THERE.
BOTTOM LINE FOR US IS THAT WE TYPICALLY HAVE SOME KIND OF MARINE
IMPACTS HERE WHEN WINDS ARE THIS STRONG IN THAT PART OF THE ATLC.
DEFINITELY A MARINE EVENT TO CLOSELY MONITOR NEXT FEW DAYS.

[cycloneye]

Small Craft Advisory in effect from Midnight AST Sunday night to Midnight AST on Monday night

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
826 PM AST SAT JAN 23 2010

...HAZARDOUS SEAS EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...

.LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY RESULTING IN SEAS TO INCREASE IN THE 8 TO
10 FOOT RANGE. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

AMZ710-240830-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.SC.Y.0009.100125T0400Z-100126T0400Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
826 PM AST SAT JAN 23 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT
TO MIDNIGHT AST MONDAY NIGHT...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MIDNIGHT AST MONDAY NIGHT.

8 TO 10 FOOT SEAS WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND
SEAS OF 7 FEET AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

[CrazyC83]

Was there ever a circulation in that system NE of the Antilles?

[cycloneye]

Was there ever a circulation in that system NE of the Antilles?

Maybe a small hint but for a short time before the surface trough streched out.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Weak front moving thru the Northern Antilles tonight thru Monday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST SUN JAN 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WELL
NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION...WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEATHER RADAR AND SATELLITES IMAGES EARLY THIS
MORNING...DEPICTED AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS...EXTENDING
FROM NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE IN COMBINATION WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WITH A PREVAILING
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
NORTHERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTED A WEAK
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN CUBA...EAST AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS
MORNING. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING AND
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY...INCREASING THE
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. BOTH MODELS THE GFS AND
NAM...BUT THE NAM MORE AGGRESSIVELY...BRING CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE FA ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN BY LATE TUESDAY...PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMNANTS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT INCREASING THE WINDS AND
SEAS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH NO OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS.
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRESENT WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LEEWARDS...VA FROM MONTSERRAT/TRPG WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. WHILE VFR CONDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND
SEA BREEZE INFLUENCED WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...BRIEF MTN
OBSCURATIONS IN ISOLATED AREAS ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR
WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW LATE AFTN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS LARGE NORTH
SWELLS BEGIN TO ARRIVE INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. COMBINATION OF
EASTERLY WIND WAVES AND NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR AMZ710
BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS OTHER
MARINES ZONES ON MONDAY.

[cycloneye]

High Surf Advisory in effect

Attention to those who are going to a beach in the North coasts of the islands from Puerto Rico to Barbuda in the Leewards.Be aware of rip currents.

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
245 PM AST SUN JAN 24 2010

...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-VIZ001-250245-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.SU.Y.0002.100125T1300Z-100126T2000Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
245 PM AST SUN JAN 24 2010

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM AST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM AST TUESDAY.

LARGE NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FROM AGUADA EAST TO FAJARDO...CULEBRA AND ST.
THOMAS. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE BREAKING WAVE ACTION THAT WILL
POSE A THREAT TO LIFE WITHIN THE SURF ZONE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THE ATLANTIC / CARIBBEAN WATERS ALONG THE NORTH / SOUTH FACING

...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL ATLANTIC /
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ALL OPEN PASSAGES...

THESE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW OUTWARD
FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO
NOT PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR BEARINGS RELATIVE
TO THE BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU WILL EVENTUALLY
LEAVE THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM
TO SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS ARE
URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE
BREAKING WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF
ALL SIZES INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE
LINE AND STAY OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

THESE SURGING WAVES WILL ALSO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR BEACH
EROSION DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

THE TIMES OF THE HIGH TIDE FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 3:19 PM AST MONDAY AT 0.8 FEET

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 7:02 AM AST TUESDAY AT 1.1 FEET

STAY TUNED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
SAN JUAN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon Discussion by NWS San Juan

Some scattered showers from tonight thru Monday as the weak front zags southward.

For members who may not know this,there are web cams at the looooong first post of this thread if you want to look how is the surf,cams from different islands,Soufriere Volcano cam,radars,sat images,including cams at the Panama Canal and at El Salvador,in other words like a tour.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST SUN JAN 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONT NOW ALONG 19N WILL MOVE THROUGH PR/USVI
TOMORROW BEFORE DISSIPATING SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS MID WEEK. MID-
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
MAINTAIN A DRY PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...XPCT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WINDS PICKUP FROM THE NORTHEAST AND CDFNT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE
AREA. ANTICIPATING A CLOUDY SHOWERY/DREARY DAY TOMORROW BUT QPF
AMTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NO FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. AS
OPPOSED TO LAST FRONT WHICH GOT HUNGED UP OVER THE AREA THIS ONE
WILL PUSH STEADILY THROUGH THE AREA AND BY TUE SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA. SO A REPEAT OF WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK
WHEN WE EXPERIENCED SVRL DAYS OF WET WEATHER AND RECORD RAINFALL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL BUILD QUICKLY OVER THE REGION
BRINGING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER. THIS LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRES LOOKS TO HOLD STRONG THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SO
AFTER TOMORROW LOOKING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING LOCAL AREA FROM THE
NORTH. EXPECT SCT SHRA THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF TEMPO MVFR CIG/VSBY
POSSIBLE OVER TIST...TJSJ AND TISX FROM 02-12Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP
TO THE 15-20KT RANGE FROM THE ENE STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE NORTH SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE ATLC COASTLINE
MON AND TUE. HOWEVER...HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

[cycloneye]

Updated Discussion by NWS San Juan

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1041 PM AST SUN JAN 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONT NOW ALONG 19N WILL MOVE THROUGH PR/USVI
TOMORROW BEFORE DISSIPATING SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE
MUNICIPALITIES OF PONCE AND MAYAGUEZ. AT THIS MOMENT SATELLITE
IMAGES ARE SHOWING THAT MOST OF THESE SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE MONA
PASSAGE. SATELLITE IMAGES ARE ALSO SHOWING AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS...THESE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AFTER
MIDNIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING LOCAL AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING VCSH`S AND BKN CIGS 3-5KFT ACROSS N PR...THE
VI...TKPK AND TNCM OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIG/VSBY POSSIBLE
THROUGH 25/14Z. VA FROM MONTSERRAT EXPECTED TO STAY WELL SOUTH OF
LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...AS ENE 15-20KT WIND FLOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP./SR


&&

.MARINE...THE BUOY 41043 STARTED TO REPORT 7 FEET SWELL AT AROUND
15 SECONDS...THIS WILL GENERATE ABOVE 10 FOOT BREAKERS ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST BEFORE SUNRISE...THEREFORE PUSH BACK THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY TO START AT 08Z.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Winter-type weather here and beachgoers take all precautions.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
553 AM AST MON JAN 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WINDS
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AROUND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES MOVES INTO
THE CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVEL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO PUERTO RICO HAS JUST
MOVED THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH BANDS OF
SHOWERS THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN GIVING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS WERE ALSO RECORDED IN
SAINT THOMAS...BUT SO FAR THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
IN SAINT CROIX WHICH RECORDED OVER ONE THIRD OF AN INCH. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CLEAR ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AIR. MODELS SHOW BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AFTER
THE ONE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SAINT CROIX AND THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL REGIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALL MODELS
AVAILABLE SHOWED COOLING OF THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES LOWERING TO 1389 METERS FROM
THE CURRENT LEVEL OF ABOVE 1400 METERS. THE GFS ALSO SHOWED THE
SURFACE DEW POINT IN SAN JUAN PLUNGING BELOW 62 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY...CORRESPONDING TO LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE EARLY LAST
YEAR...AND RECOVERING AGAIN TO THE HIGH 60S BY SATURDAY WHEN MORE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE NORTH OF
THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND DISSIPATE...BUT
ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SENDING ANOTHER BACK DOOR BAND OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER LOW FOLLOWS IT AND DEEPENS
RAPIDLY...THIS LOW PULLS NORTHEAST TOO FAST TO BE OF MUCH EFFECT
IN THE LOCAL AREA NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJSJ...TISX...TIST...TNCM...AND TKPK AT LEAST THROUGH 26/02Z IN
PASSING SHOWERS. VA FROM MONTSERRAT EXPECTED TO STAY WELL SOUTH OF
LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK TOMORROW WITH PARTICULARLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
AS 6-FOOT WIND WAVES EVERY 6 SECONDS FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST
CROSS 7-FOOT SWELL EVERY 12 SECONDS FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT WILL REMAIN ROUGH AS THESE
CROSS CUTTING WAVE TRAINS CONTINUE. SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL
PEAK ON TUESDAY AS WELL...BUT WILL ALSO BECOME ROUGHER ON FRIDAY.

CURRENTLY THE SWELL AT THE BUOY TO OUR NORTH NORTHEAST HAS RISEN
TO 9.2 FEET EVERY 15 SECONDS CREATING SEAS OF OVER 10 FEET. FOR
THIS REASON THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS BEGUN EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY FOR BREAKING WAVES OF AT
LEAST 13 FEET ON THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES.

[msbee]

Good mornign all
From my blog this morning:

http://barcann.livejournal.com/160750.html

Hold on to your hats and be careful out there!
Out where? On the sea, that's where!
Yesterday was a quiet day with absolutely no wind. Last night the wind picked up and it howled all night.
It's still howling. The Met Office at the airport says the winds are from the East at anywhere from 14 to 20 MPH.
I swear there are higher gusts than that around my house.
It sounds like an old haunted house with whistling around the corners, and creaking doors. LOL
I heard that the Tiko Tiko boat from Club O on Orient Beach broke away from its mooring and was beached and damaged.
So, boaters, make sure your boats are anchored well.
I also heard many boats "out there" are heading into Simpson bay this morning for better protection.

We are also experiencing Northern swells comign in with seas building to about 9 to 14 feet by tonight, so be careful boating out there today.
The full weather forecast is here:

http://www.meteo.an/

Don't forget to donate to Haiti! they still need our help!

[cycloneye]

Afternoon Discussion by NWS San Juan


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST MON JAN 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...CDFNT NOW ACROSS CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MID LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER PR
TONIGHT AND HOLD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CDFNT NOW ACROSS CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH STEADILY SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FCST TO BREAK/END OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THE 20-KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING
THEN LOSE ITS GUSTINESS OVERNIGHT AS NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP.

AS LARGE H5 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION MODELS SHOW A
SUBSIDENCE CAP THAT STRENGHTENS/LOWERS DOWN TO 850 MB LATE
TOMORROW AND HOLDS THROUGH FRI. IN ADDITION...SFC RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE WRN ATLC LATER IN THE WEEK WILL ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FCST TO DROP THROUGH THE 60S AND PWATS DROPPING
TO AS LOW AS 0.70 INCHES BY FRI MORNING. THUS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY DURING THE DAY AS PRES GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHT ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE WEEK AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS
FURTHER WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA. ALSO ANTICIPATE
COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS LACK OF CLOUD
CVR AND DRY AIR AIDS IN RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY IN DEEP
VALLEYS. MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACKDOOR CDFNT INTO OUR AREA ON THE
WEEKEND BUT AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS GIVEN SUCH A STRONG RIDGE FCST
OVER THE AREA. IT APPEARS TYPICAL MID WINTER PATTERN ACROSS THE
TROPICS WILL FINALLY SET IN FOR OUR AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WITH BRIEF SHRAS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 07Z. WINDS WILL LOSE ITS
GUSTINESS OVERNIGHT BUT PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.MARINE...2 TO 4 METER SEAS BEING REPORTED ACROSS REGIONAL BUOYS
ATTM. SEAS FCST TO PEAK AROUND 10 FT TONIGHT ACROSS LOCAL ATLC
WATERS THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TOMORROW BUT EXPECTED TO
REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS MUCH OF THE WEEK
ESPECIALLY ATLC WATERS. LARGE NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATE TOMORROW.

[cycloneye]

High Surf Advisory remains in effect until 4 PM AST Tuesday

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST MON JAN 25 2010

...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-VIZ001-262000-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SU.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-100126T2000Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
252 PM AST MON JAN 25 2010

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AST TUESDAY...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AST TUESDAY.

LARGE NORTH SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH
TUESDAY FROM AGUADA EAST TO FAJARDO...CULEBRA AND ST. THOMAS. THESE
SWELLS WILL CAUSE BREAKING WAVE ACTION THAT WILL POSE A THREAT TO
LIFE WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 15 FEET
ARE LIKELY ACROSS REEFS...SHOALS AND STEEP COASTLINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THE ATLANTIC / CARIBBEAN WATERS ALONG THE NORTH / SOUTH FACING

...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL ATLANTIC /
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ALL OPEN PASSAGES...

THESE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW OUTWARD
FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT
PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR BEARINGS RELATIVE TO THE
BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE
THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM TO
SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS ARE URGED
TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE BREAKING
WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF ALL SIZES
INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND STAY
OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

THESE SURGING WAVES WILL ALSO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR BEACH EROSION
DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

THE TIMES OF THE HIGH TIDE FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 3:19 PM AST MONDAY AT 0.8 FEET
5:51 AM AST TUESDAY AT 1.5 FEET

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 7:02 AM AST TUESDAY AT 1.1 FEET


STAY TUNED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN
JUAN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.