Florida Weather

[frankthetank]

18z GFS still showing a 41F for Miami next week...

[Sanibel]

Only to lower 40's here. Warmer tomorrow and Monday. Rain Monday. Another reinforcing cold front Tuesday through Thursday expected into 30's at night.

[JonathanBelles]

Its sitting at 45 here at my house now, which the forecasted low...so the low will be a bust.

[JonathanBelles]

Tonights AFD from TBW

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT ADVECTING VERY COLD DRY
CANADIAN AIR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. ADVECTIVE
FREEZE POSSIBLE OVER THE NATURE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS
WILL BE IN THE 20S OVER THE NATURE COAST AND LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS AIRMASS COULD POSSIBLY BE THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION AS 1000/500 THICKNESS VALUES
DROP TO AROUND 540...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATIC NORMALS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH LOWER 60S SOUTH. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR DRAINAGE FLOW DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AS FAR
SOUTH AS FORT MYERS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO LIKELY CAUSE A HARD
FREEZE OVER THE NATURE COAST WITH LOWS OF 20 TO 25. COLD AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS WILL MODIFY TO SOME EXTENT...
OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD STILL DROP INTO THE MID 20 ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST AND IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH RETURN EASTERLY FLOW ALLOWING TEMPERATURES AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RECOVER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT COLD SHOT CLOSELY NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS ANY CHANGES TO OVERALL PATTERN WILL GREATLY AFFECT OVERNIGHT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.


Thats unexpected somewhat. Also, can somebody tell me what is going on on the NWS radar?

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami discussion, looks like some recent model runs have really caught the attention of the NWS...with a possibly even colder airmass this go around than the Jan 21-Jan 22 airmass. Temps in the 30s could reach all the way down along the coasts of Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-DADE in SE Florida.

THEN COMES THE COLD - ONE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TUE MORNING WITH
ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT POISED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST FRONT WILL PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS WED MORNING. IT IS THE
SECOND RE-ENFORCING FRONT OF ARCTIC ORIGIN THAT REALLY HAS MY
ATTENTION. THE HIGH BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT IS COMING RIGHT DOWN
THE PIKE FROM THE ARCTIC. THIS COULD VERY WELL PRODUCE A SECOND HARD
FREEZE OF THIS WINTER SEASON ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS THU
MORNING...WITH FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE EVEN AGAIN FRI MORNING AS THE
HIGH CENTER SETTLES IN CLOSER TO THE AREA. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS
VALUES OFF THE GFS THU MORNING ARE 1297 GLADES COUNTY TO 1310 AT
MIA. ECWMF SHOWS 1304 GLADES TO 1322 AT MIA. THESE NUMBERS ARE
REMINISCENT OF THE PREVIOUS HARD FREEZE OF JAN 22ND...AND THIS HIGH
IS OF ARCTIC ORIGIN. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THU MORNING. THIS
LIKELY IS OVERDONE...BUT IT JUST GOES TO SHOW THE DRYNESS AND
RADIATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL OF THIS INCOMING AIRMASS. BECAUSE OF
THIS...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE OUTLOOK" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">OUTLOOK THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR SOUTH FL TO ADDRESS THE MID TO LATE WEEK FREEZE
POTENTIAL...HIGHLIGHTING THURSDAY AS THE COLDEST MORNING WITH A HARD
FREEZE POSSIBLE NW INTERIOR. IT WILL BE COLD ALL THE WAY TO THE
COASTS...WITH MIN`S IN THE 30S POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE THU
MORNING...THOUGH DID NOT GO QUITE THIS LOW YET AS WOULD LIKE TO SEE
TRENDS AS WE GET CLOSER. TEMPS REALLY LOOK TO MODERATE NEXT WEEKEND
AND BEYOND AS THE DEEP TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND IS REPLACED BY RIDGING.


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

[frankthetank]

GFS now showing a 39F for Miami... Three nights of 40's/30's... This looks worse then last outbreak. The Euro goes bonkers with the trough... Yowsers! Lets hope they start to trend warmer.

[gatorcane]

GFS now showing a 39F for Miami... Three nights of 40's/30's... This looks worse then last outbreak. The Euro goes bonkers with the trough... Yowsers! Lets hope they start to trend warmer.

Yes, the ECMWF is bullish on a monster trough. Let's hope it trends warmer, this is going to put much of mainland FL all the way into the Everglades into a freeze. It could rival the last freeze of Jan. 22nd. This would be the one-two punch for those in North Florida, Central FL, and interior South Florida. Of course, the severity of freezes in Florida are difficult to accurately predict this far out, so its likely things will change from now until then.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9020100!!/

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Accuweather brings this low into Tampa Bay- this "landfall" might cause some interesting winds tomorrow night....winter-cane anyone LOL
Probably just strong winds of 30 mph in gusts..

[HURAKAN]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I'll be watching the gulf satellite for tomorrow's "winter cane"
This low is forming near lousiana now.
I think winds will gust to 30 mph with this huge, winter cane, LOL
batten down the hatches
Sorry...I'm so obsessed with hurricanes I imagine them during the off-season

[Sanibel]

48* last night.

[jinftl]

There comes a point where the GFS has to 'put up or shut up'....NWS Miami forecast this week not nearly as cold or extreme as the GFS


NWS Forecast for: Miami FL
Issued by: National Weather Service Miami - South Florida
Last Update: 2:52 pm EST Feb 1, 2009

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. .
Monday: A 50 percent chance of showers, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76.
Monday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before midnight, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64.
Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 70.
Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47.
Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 65.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 46.
Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 65. North wind around 14 mph.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 50.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.

Per NWS Miami, only risk of below freezing temps are around the lake...Glades & Hendry (perhaps far western Palm Beach and Eastern Collier)..with temps warming to near normal by the end of the week

EXTENDED PERIOD...WED THROUGH SAT...BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED WED ALONG WITH THE SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH BY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT THOUGH IS AN
UNADULTERATED ARCTIC BLAST THAT KEEPS THE SPECTER OF POSSIBLE FREEZ
-ING TEMPERATURES IN THE N INTERIOR AREAS...BUT THE POSSIBLY OF A
SECOND HARD FREEZE IN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES AS WELL. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN W PALM BEACH AND E COLLIER
COUNTIES WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS SEASON ELSEWHERE
ACROSS S FLA. FREEZING TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRI MORNING IN
GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES AS NEAR CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PRE
-VAIL. A FREEZE OUTLOOK HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED EARLIER AND THIS
WILL BE UPDATED AND ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD STAY ATTUNED TO
THIS DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE FRI AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

GFS now showing a 39F for Miami... Three nights of 40's/30's... This looks worse then last outbreak. The Euro goes bonkers with the trough... Yowsers! Lets hope they start to trend warmer.

[jinftl]

NWS Melbourne not forecasting the end of the world low temps this week..temps near freezing but if forecast verifies, not as cold as 2 weeks ago and milder by the end of the week (close to seasonal temps)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
145 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2009

.DISCUSSION...
.

TUE NIGHT...HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR LOWS WHICH
PUTS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MID 30S...EXCEPT LOWER 30S FOR
FAR NRN SECTIONS AND UPPER 30S FOR THE MARTIN COUNTY COAST. NAM
SHOWS SOME LATE NIGHT VEERING OF WINDS ACROSS NRN SECTIONS LATE
AHEAD OF A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. LATE
NIGHT WIND CHILLS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY.

WED...LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER DRY
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SRN ZONES.

THU-FRI...12Z GUID STILL ON TRACK FOR A POTENTIAL FREEZE THU
MORNING. PREV DISC...OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS MOS IS INDICATING FREEZING
TEMPS THU MORNING ACROSS ALL OF EC FL...BUT ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT AS
COLD. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE MILDER ENSEMBLE MEAN BUT STILL SHOWING
NEAR FREEZING TEMPS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH CENTER IS STILL WELL TO
THE NORTH WHICH MEANS WIND CHILLS SHOULD BE A FACTOR AGAIN. HIGH
CENTER IS FCST TO SETTLE OVER THE FL PENINSULA THU NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS. SO ITS UNCLEAR
AT THIS POINT WHICH MORNING WILL BE COLDER BUT FROST/FREEZING TEMPS
ARE POSSIBLE ON ONE OR BOTH NIGHTS. MAX TEMPS THU ARE FCST TO BE
JUST A BIT MILDER THAN WED...WITH A MORE NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND
FRI AFTN.

[HURAKAN]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

WHOOHOO!! Gulf winter storm is cranking up baby! Brring it on!!!!!

[JonathanBelles]

Klystron9 is going nuts with this! http://www.baynews9.com/Klystron9.html --->Forecast Center (at the bottom) ----> 24 Hour Forecast

[frankthetank]

18Z GFS still showing a 40F... This is going to be interesting. GFS has been pretty consistent.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Large area of moderate to heavy rain racing towards
Naples, Fort Myers...and the Florida Southwest coast:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... w&loop=yes
Should reach northern parts of southeast florida...mainly north of Miami
by 5 AM...

[HURAKAN]

[frankthetank]

Whole state of Florida is in the 80's 10 days from now... My call