2009 Severe Weather thread

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
150 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BARBOUR COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...EUFAULA...CLIO...
SOUTHERN BULLOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TROY...GOSHEN...BRUNDIDGE...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 146 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETECTED A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF ANSLEY TO 11
MILES WEST OF SHOPTON TO SHOPTON TO BEANS CROSSROADS TO 9 MILES
NORTH OF INVERNESS TO 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF SHOPTON TO 32 MILES
NORTH OF SPRING HILL...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES WEST
OF MEADVILLE TO MEADVILLE TO 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF MEADVILLE TO 12
MILES SOUTHWEST OF UNION SPRINGS TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF UNION
SPRINGS TO UNION SPRINGS TO 8 MILES NORTH OF UNION SPRINGS TO 6
MILES SOUTHWEST OF AUBURN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
INVERNESS AND BEANS CROSSROADS BY 155 PM CDT...
PICKETT BY 210 PM CDT...
LINWOOD...BOOT HILL AND ANSLEY BY 215 PM CDT...
TROY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT BY 220 PM CDT...
TROY UNIVERSITY...TROY AND LOUISVILLE BY 230 PM CDT...

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 408
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN ALABAMA
FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL 800
PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF EVERGREEN ALABAMA TO 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF MARIANNA FLORIDA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 406...WW 407...

DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED BOWING MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SSEWD TO
THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. INFLOW AIR MASS IS MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED
WITH THE PRESENCE OF A 40-45 KT REAR INFLOW JET /PER BHM
VWP/...ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG
SYSTEM TRACK.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 33035.


...MEAD/HALES

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Low Very Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Low

[Dave]

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
111 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN PLATTE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING...

* UNTIL 200 PM MDT

* AT 109 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CHUGWATER...OR 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
WHEATLAND...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN
PLATTE COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 25 IN WYOMING BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 59 AND
66.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
455 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN OWEN COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT.

* AT 455 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BEECHWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN
OWEN COUNTY...INCLUDING BEECHWOOD...NATLEE AND NEW COLUMBUS.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
255 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RAPID CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CROOK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...
WESTERN BUTTE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 345 PM MDT

* AT 254 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COLONY...OR 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN
BELLE FOURCHE...AND MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLONY...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
258 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ADAMS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
SOUTHWESTERN WELD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
NORTHEASTERN BROOMFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO

* UNTIL 345 PM MDT

* AT 255 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A POSSIBLE TORNADO 6
MILES WEST OF BRIGHTON...OR 19 MILES NORTH OF DENVER. THIS STORM
WAS MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH. SEVERAL REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED ALONG A DEVELOPING BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM
AROUND LAKEWOOD TO NEAR FORT LUPTON.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LOCHBUIE...
FREDERICK...FORT LUPTON...FIRESTONE...DACONO...BRIGHTON...BARR
LAKE...NORTHEASTERN WESTMINSTER...NORTHERN THORNTON...NORTHEASTERN
NORTHGLENN...NORTH CENTRAL COMMERCE CITY AND NORTHEASTERN
BROOMFIELD.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
257 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RIVERTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HOT SPRINGS COUNTY IN CENTRAL WYOMING...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF THERMOPOLIS...

* UNTIL 400 PM MDT

* AT 256 PM MDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR HWY
JCT 170 AND 120...OR 11 MILES WEST OF THERMOPOLIS...MOVING EAST AT
10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HWY JCT 170 AND 120 BY 315 PM...
U.S. HWY 20/789 MILE MARKER 130 BY 345 PM...
THERMOPOLIS BY 350 PM...
LUCERNE BY 400 PM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE PREVIOUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR HOT SPRINGS COUNTY.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
313 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...
EAST CENTRAL GOSHEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING...

* UNTIL 400 PM MDT

* AT 309 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HAWK SPRINGS...OR 20 MILES SOUTH OF
TORRINGTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
PACKER LAKE AROUND 340 PM MDT.
LYMAN AROUND 345 PM MDT.
STEGALL AROUND 355 PM MDT.

THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL PASS ACROSS HIGHWAY 85 NEAR HAWK
SPRINGS BETWEEN 315 PM AND 330 PM MDT.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
313 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ARAPAHOE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO

* UNTIL 345 PM MDT

* AT 313 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF COUNTRY GARDENS...OR 31 MILES EAST OF DENVER. THIS
STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO COUNTRY
GARDENS AND BYERS.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
520 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...
SOUTHERN ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT.

* AT 519 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WEST UNION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEST UNION...
VANCEBURG...

IN ADDITION...STATE ROUTE 348 AT STATE ROUTE 125...CONCORD...BLUE
CREEK...SANDY SPRINGS...ROME AND CARRS ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS
DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM.

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 411
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
410 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 410 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
GAGE OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF HILL CITY KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 407...WW 408...WW
409...WW 410...

DISCUSSION...DRY LINE IS PUSHING INTO WATCH AREA AND RAPID
DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE WATCH. WITH FAVORABLE
SHEAR...THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY.
IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUPERCELL. STORMS WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE WATCH DURING THE
EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.


...HALES

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Moderate
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
High Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
High Moderate

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
537 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN LEWIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...
SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWESTERN SCIOTO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT.

* AT 536 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ROME...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VANCEBURG...

IN ADDITION...SANDY SPRINGS...BUENA VISTA...TURKEY CREEK
LAKE...SHAWNEE STATE FOREST...TANNERY...GARRISON...FRIENDSHIP...
REXTON AND SAINT PAUL ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS
THUNDERSTORM.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 65 to 70 db on the cell entering Childress County would be good for a severe t-storm warning in my book, but not for (I think) NWS Lubbock.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Maybe more than a severe warning based on doppler velocity...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ok

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC075-101-150445-
/O.NEW.KLUB.SV.W.0222.090615T0340Z-090615T0445Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1040 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CHILDRESS COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.
NORTHERN COTTLE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.

* UNTIL 1145 PM CDT

* AT 1039 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TELL...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHILDRESS...
AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE SWEARINGEN AND
CHILDRESS.

I'd keep an eye on the SW corner where the appendage and the couplet are, but that is me...

[Bunkertor]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1047 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

KSC077-150430-
/O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-090615T0430Z/
HARPER KS-
1047 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARPER COUNTY
UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1045 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A POSSIBLE TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ANTHONY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THE DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE...
NEAR ANTHONY BY 1055 PM CDT.
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BLUFF CITY BY 1130 PM CDT.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL ALSO AFFECT FREEPORT.

LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

[Dave]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...INTO THE CAROLINAS...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS IN PLACE TODAY OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WHILE
A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW PATTERN...AND WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TODAY FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY. OTHER MORE ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS THE CAROLINAS...AND OVER PARTS OF
PA/NY/NEW ENGLAND.

...MO/AR/IL/KY/TN...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MO. THESE STORMS ARE IN A
REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. A SMALLER SCALE
BOW ECHO IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS
AND WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE DOWN THE WEST EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION SHIELD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AT ITS PRESENT
SPEED...THESE STORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL MO AROUND MIDDAY...AND
EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN KY/TN BY EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INCONSISTENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS MCS...BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED PATH COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL POSE A RISK OF INTENSIFICATION AND THE
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST
KS...WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING MAINTAINED NORTH OF LOW
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KS. MEANWHILE...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR
WEST OF THE DRYLINE NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER YIELDING AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO BE
ELIMINATED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. STORMS WILL MOVE INTO A VERY MOIST
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO
PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO POSE A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS ORGANIZE AND TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KS. AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL AND
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA...APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE CONFIDENCE IN UPGRADE TO A
CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH OF KS.

...WESTERN SD/NEB...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE
BLACK HILLS SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN NEB. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND 25-40 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...CAROLINAS...
A BROAD AREA OF 30-35 KNOT WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE PRESENT
TODAY OVER THE CAROLINAS. DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...THIS WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL
STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

...NY/PA/VT/MA/CT...
COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF NY/PA AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. A FEW CELLS COULD BECOME STRONG/SEVERE WITH A RISK OF HAIL
AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER
ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.

..HART/JEWELL.. 06/15/2009

[Dave]

1300 UTC Visible

[Bunkertor]

TORNADO WARNING
MOC179-151730-
/O.NEW.KLSX.TO.W.0045.090615T1705Z-090615T1730Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1205 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN REYNOLDS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 1206 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BUNKER...OR 16 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SALEM...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUNKER...OATES...REYNOLDS...CENTERVILLE...CORRIDON...BLACK...
LESTERVILLE AND REDFORD.