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Re: Texas Summer 2021
Posted: Mon Aug 23, 2021 8:49 am
by cheezyWXguy
Considering that’s at 330hr, I think it’s actually concerningly consistent. The gfs continues to show a system coming north over Cuba, then bending it west, with some degree of a bend to the north around the time of landfall. Lots of time for things to change, but I am really not a fan of that angle of approach to landfall
Re: Texas Summer 2021
Posted: Mon Aug 23, 2021 1:36 pm
by starsfan65
We have 2 new invests in the Atlantic.
Re: Texas Summer 2021
Posted: Mon Aug 23, 2021 2:23 pm
by wxman22
12Z Euro
Re: Texas Summer 2021
Posted: Mon Aug 23, 2021 3:14 pm
by Brent
The Euro ensembles are all over Texas
and this is next week not really fantasy land
Re: Texas Summer 2021
Posted: Mon Aug 23, 2021 4:25 pm
by Cpv17
Brent wrote:The Euro ensembles are all over Texas
and this is next week not really fantasy land
Yeppers. Watching it closely.
Re: Texas Summer 2021
Posted: Mon Aug 23, 2021 4:49 pm
by TeamPlayersBlue
Key is to watch the high in the SE. See how confident the models are with that particular cog in the wheel. For now, its very consistent with its positioning.
Re: Texas Summer 2021
Posted: Mon Aug 23, 2021 6:50 pm
by Rgv20
Possible Tropical Cyclone in the Western GOM come Sunday into Monday.
WPC Day 7 valid Monday 12z....Usually has a good idea of what the NHC is thinking for the longer range.
Re: Texas Summer 2021
Posted: Mon Aug 23, 2021 7:46 pm
by Brent
Cpv17 wrote:Brent wrote:The Euro ensembles are all over Texas
and this is next week not really fantasy land
Yeppers. Watching it closely.
Yeah after what Grace just did... Definitely raises eyebrows
Re: Texas Summer 2021
Posted: Mon Aug 23, 2021 8:53 pm
by bubba hotep
Sure sign that Texas doesn't have to worry about this system, the Euro shows it moving over DFW lol
Re: Texas Summer 2021
Posted: Mon Aug 23, 2021 8:56 pm
by Iceresistance
bubba hotep wrote:Sure sign that Texas doesn't have to worry about this system, the Euro shows it moving over DFW lol
Um, 50 knots over hardwood tree forests is VERY WORRYING! It would topple a LOT of them!
Re: Texas Summer 2021
Posted: Mon Aug 23, 2021 8:58 pm
by Brent
Iceresistance wrote:Um, 50 knots over hardwood trees is VERY WORRYING! It would topple them!
Lol I think he's making a joke about how terrible the Euro has been at day 10
Re: Texas Summer 2021
Posted: Mon Aug 23, 2021 11:00 pm
by Brent
Icon agreeing with the Euro
Re: Texas Summer 2021
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:24 am
by Bhow
06z GFS only drops 16 inches on Austin.
Re: Texas Summer 2021
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 9:25 am
by IcyTundra
Bhow wrote:06z GFS only drops 16 inches on Austin.
Would be a disaster for Austin.
Re: Texas Summer 2021
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 11:06 am
by Cpv17
12z ICON model with a landfall around Rockport:
Re: Texas Summer 2021
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 11:29 am
by Brent
I see the GFS gave up on Mexico much closer to the Euro/Icon now
The idea of a stall near landfall is also on the table
Re: Texas Summer 2021
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 12:23 pm
by lukem
12z GFS brings a ton of rain inland to Texas. Looks like the entire state would get soaked. Also shows another storm in the gulf the week after, but right now it has it going into Mexico.
Re: Texas Summer 2021
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 12:26 pm
by underthwx
Re: Texas Summer 2021
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 12:57 pm
by Cpv17
Brent wrote:I see the GFS gave up on Mexico much closer to the Euro/Icon now
The idea of a stall near landfall is also on the table
Yep. We’ve seen that one before..
Re: Texas Summer 2021
Posted: Tue Aug 24, 2021 1:26 pm
by Brent
Cpv17 wrote:Brent wrote:I see the GFS gave up on Mexico much closer to the Euro/Icon now
The idea of a stall near landfall is also on the table
Yep. We’ve seen that one before..
Yeah didn't want to bring it up but I've seen comparisons