Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

we've been very dry too Gusty but today we have received some much needed rain, from that cold front Luis and macrocane were talking about.

[Gustywind]

we've been very dry too Gusty but today we have received some much needed rain, from that cold front Luis and macrocane were talking about.

Ok glad to see that , hummm whereas this front is not expected to bring water here and that's:(. Bad news too: Meteo-France don't anticipate a nice amount of water during the couple of days ! Let's keep our fingers crossed...

[Macrocane]

Unfortunately Guadeloupe is more south than Puerto Rico and St. Maarten so it has less chances of being affected by the fronts, let's see what happens this weekend.

[cycloneye]

Hopefully,this front is pushed way south and gets to the islands of the Lesser Antilles that are in the dry spell right now.If the fronts dont get that south,then the next chance of rain will be the first tropical waves of this year comming from the east.

[cycloneye]

Updated discussion by NWS San Juan



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
928 PM AST WED FEB 24 2010

.UPDATE...VARIABLE CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
PREVAILS TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RACED ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION TO BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY...A TYPICAL
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH A
WEAK EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH
DAY. INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND NO CHANGES WERE DONE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVED RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...
SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FA.
SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. A SECOND...
STRONGER AND MORE MOIST FRONT...WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES FOR
NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME MORE EAST NORTHEASTERLY BY 25/14Z AND THEN
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY BY 25/18Z.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.The strong front continues to get closer to the NE Caribbean.Will it get far enough southward to dump some rain to Guadeloupe and other islands?


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST THU FEB 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOW LOCATED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY. A SECOND TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT THIS MOMENT THE DOPPLER RADAR IS REPORTING
SHOWER FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. A HIGH
PRESSURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO...WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AS A FAST PACED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH
SATURDAY. ANOTHER THROUGH ASSOCIATED TO THE SAME LOW WILL BE
ARRIVING THE LOCAL REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE SLOWER ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SFC WIND WILL BE MOSTLY 5-15 KT AND THE DIRECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND 25/18Z...BCMG WEST SOUTHWEST
AROUND 26/06Z. NO OTHER OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING TWO DIFFERENT SWELLS FOR THIS
WEEKEND. THE FIRST SWELL WILL ARRIVE BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SWELL WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND
1.4 METERS AND WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 13 SECONDS. THE SECOND
SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL BE
QUICK BUT WILL BE BIGGER THAN THE FIRST ONE...PEAKING AT AROUND 2
METERS WITH A PERIOD OF BETWEEN 10 TO 11 SECONDS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AT AROUND 10 KNOTS...BUT THEY WILL BE SHIFTING DIRECTIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVING ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS.

[cycloneye]

Here is the image of the Caribbean where you can follow the strong front moving Southeastward.



You can see a loop of image at link below.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr.html

[Macrocane]

The strongest convection seems to be more associated with a prefrontal trough, maybe you will receive rain not only from the front but also from that trough. By the way is a nice morning here in El Salvador, the winds are weak at this time but it feels cool, the temperature in San Salvador is 17 °C (63 °F) and yesterday at this time it was 20 °C (68 °F).

Here you can see the front and the trough:

[Gustywind]

Good morning to all.The strong front continues to get closer to the NE Caribbean.Will it get far enough southward to dump some rain to Guadeloupe and other islands?


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST THU FEB 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOW LOCATED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY. A SECOND TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT THIS MOMENT THE DOPPLER RADAR IS REPORTING
SHOWER FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. A HIGH
PRESSURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO...WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AS A FAST PACED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH
SATURDAY. ANOTHER THROUGH ASSOCIATED TO THE SAME LOW WILL BE
ARRIVING THE LOCAL REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE SLOWER ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SFC WIND WILL BE MOSTLY 5-15 KT AND THE DIRECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND 25/18Z...BCMG WEST SOUTHWEST
AROUND 26/06Z. NO OTHER OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING TWO DIFFERENT SWELLS FOR THIS
WEEKEND. THE FIRST SWELL WILL ARRIVE BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SWELL WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND
1.4 METERS AND WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 13 SECONDS. THE SECOND
SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL BE
QUICK BUT WILL BE BIGGER THAN THE FIRST ONE...PEAKING AT AROUND 2
METERS WITH A PERIOD OF BETWEEN 10 TO 11 SECONDS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AT AROUND 10 KNOTS...BUT THEY WILL BE SHIFTING DIRECTIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVING ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS.

Let's hope that Cycloneye, but Meteo-France don't expect any rain from this front for Guadeloupe given their last weather forecast. This drought is one of the most impressive given our local meteorologists of Meteo-France Guadeloupe! Temperatures should continue to climb again near 34,°C it's sincerely worrying here. The grass is burnt in numerous localities of the Butterfly Island, the vegetation too. Let's hope that things will change quickly for us and all the carib islands suffering from the pretty severe (and it's and euphemisma) drought!
Gustywind

[Macrocane]

In El Salvador it has been cloudy and windy since early morning, the temperatures have been lower than yesterday and it feels very comfortable.

In Honduras the winds have been stronger and have caused some problems. In northern Honduras gusts up to 70 km/h (43 mph) were registered last night, in San Pedro Sula 50 trees fell down, there have been reports of dozens of homes damaged, electric poles and billboards have also suffered damage. Fortunately there are no reports of any deaths. Here is a link in Spanish with the news:
http://www.laprensa.hn/Sintesis/Lo-mas-leido/Ediciones/2010/02/25/Noticias/Normalizan-fluido-electrico-en-los-hospitales
In the right side of the page you will see some photos of the damages.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

It was very hot in San Juan today as the mercury rose to 93F breaking the record for this date.I am afraid that this front wont make it to Guadeloupe and the islands to its south.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST THU FEB 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...FA WILL REMAIN LOCATED BETWEEN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A SERIES OF
PERTURBATIONS MOVING NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND HOT AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH NO RAINFALL. IN FACT...THE MERCURY
AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT JUST REACHED 93
DEGREES AND THIS BREAKS THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE
OF 92 DEGREES SET IN 1983. FA BASICALLY WAS IN THE "WARM" SECTOR
TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS
FEATURE TO CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY EAST SOUTHEAST EARLY
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWING DOWN LATE TONIGHT...AS BEST MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. NONETHELESS...STILL
EXPECT BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE MONA PASSAGE BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN LAY DOWN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING
FRIDAY...BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS. SOME SHOWERS MAY BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY AND WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. BOUNDARY
MAY WELL MOVE PAST THE LOCAL ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY SATURDAY KEEPING SOME CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
AROUND...BEFORE LIFTING "BACK" TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH OVERALL DRYING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT
ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. MONTSERRAT VOLCANO
REMAINS MAINLY QUIET AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY LARGER...NORTHWEST SWELLS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR AT
LEAST THE ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE MERCURY AT THE SAN JUAN LUIS MUNOZ MARIN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED 93 DEGREES AT 3:05 PM AST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS BREAKS THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THIS
DATE OF 92 DEGREES SET IN 1983. ADDITIONALLY...THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE THUS FAR FOR TODAY IS 76 DEGREES AND THIS CURRENTLY
TIES THE RECORD WARMEST MINIMUM OF 76 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1983 AND
1978.

[Gustywind]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

It was very hot in San Juan today as the mercury rose to 93F breaking the record for this date.I am afraid that this front wont make it to Guadeloupe and the islands to its south.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST THU FEB 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...FA WILL REMAIN LOCATED BETWEEN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A SERIES OF
PERTURBATIONS MOVING NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND HOT AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH NO RAINFALL. IN FACT...THE MERCURY
AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT JUST REACHED 93
DEGREES AND THIS BREAKS THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE
OF 92 DEGREES SET IN 1983. FA BASICALLY WAS IN THE "WARM" SECTOR
TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS
FEATURE TO CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY EAST SOUTHEAST EARLY
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWING DOWN LATE TONIGHT...AS BEST MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. NONETHELESS...STILL
EXPECT BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE MONA PASSAGE BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN LAY DOWN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING
FRIDAY...BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS. SOME SHOWERS MAY BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY AND WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. BOUNDARY
MAY WELL MOVE PAST THE LOCAL ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY SATURDAY KEEPING SOME CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
AROUND...BEFORE LIFTING "BACK" TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH OVERALL DRYING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT
ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. MONTSERRAT VOLCANO
REMAINS MAINLY QUIET AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY LARGER...NORTHWEST SWELLS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR AT
LEAST THE ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE MERCURY AT THE SAN JUAN LUIS MUNOZ MARIN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED 93 DEGREES AT 3:05 PM AST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS BREAKS THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THIS
DATE OF 92 DEGREES SET IN 1983. ADDITIONALLY...THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE THUS FAR FOR TODAY IS 76 DEGREES AND THIS CURRENTLY
TIES THE RECORD WARMEST MINIMUM OF 76 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1983 AND
1978.

I appreciate your wink towards Guadeloupe Luis, but with 93 F in San Juan it's awesome too... be welcomed in the 92 and more !!! Looks like it will not make it if this trends continues Cycloneye, but let's once again keep our fingers crossed and see some water falling! No doubts, the drought continues to pose crucial troubles in the island.

[HUC]

....and in Guadeloupe the volcanic ash is always over the trees,banana production loose,and watermelon also!!!Thank's for no rain,and so no wahing of the trees!!!

[Gustywind]

....and in Guadeloupe the volcanic ash is always over the trees,banana production loose,and watermelon also!!!Thank's for no rain,and so no wahing of the trees!!!

Absolutely HUC, you're definitely right i have to admit that's a pretty insolite situation there .

[HURAKAN]

Impressive value

[msbee]

SPECIAL INFORMATION BULLETIN.... This evening at about 6:43 PM, an earthquake took place under the Caribbean Sea near the Antigua/ Barbuda region. This tremor was felt in sections of the SSS Islands as well. Tremor took place at a depth of about 31.1 miles deep; magnitude of 4.8. Its epicenter was located about 65 miles East of St. Maarten.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ... 10tdb5.php

I did not feel anything where I live though

[Macrocane]

I did not feel anything where I live though

Maybe because it was very deep. Thanks for the info.

Here in El Salvador the lowest temperature registered this morning was 9.2 °C (48.6 °F) in Los Andes (in the western part of the country), the same station registered a minimum of 14.7 °C (58.5 °F) yesterday.

San Salvador registered 17.2 °C (63 °F) in the morning and the maximum this afternoon was 28.2 °C (82.8 °F). Yesterday San Salvador experienced a minimum of 20 °C (68 °F) and a maximum of 30.1 °C (86.2 °F). As you can see the effects of the cold front are very noticeable. Actually today's maximum in San Salvador was the lowest since January 13.

Climatology says that March and April are the warmest months so this is one of the last cold fronts to reach the area.

[Gustywind]

another one waouw Thanks Msbee to keep us informed we appreciate!

[cycloneye]

Updated discussion by NWS San Juan

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1003 PM AST THU FEB 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW AND
STALL ACROSS PR FRI NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTH LATE SAT.
MID LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEK AND SUPPORT A DRYING
TREND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN ATLC SUPPORTS CDFNT NOW
EXTENDING FROM EAST OF BERMUDA SW TO THE NORTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA. THIS FRONT WILL ENTER THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS EARLY
TOMORROW THEN STALL ACROSS PR FRI NIGHT. MODELS STILL PORTRAY AN
ACTIVE AFTERNOON TOMORROW FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF PR. IMPRESSIVE
MOISTURE PLUME SEEN ON TPW IMAGERY WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING
2.5 INCHES OR WELL ABOVE 200% OF NORMAL. 88D PICKING UP TSTMS NEAR
PUNTA CANA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ATTM. CONVECTION WILL RACE
ACROSS OUR ATLC WATERS OVERNIGHT SO HAVE INCLUDED TSTMS FOR THAT
AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEERING WINDS BECOMING MORE FROM THE
NW TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO FORM OVR THE
INTERIOR AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
EROSION OF MID LEVEL CAP BY AFTERNOON SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. DEFINITELY POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND EVEN FLASH
FLOODING GIVEN HIGH K INDICES AND ABNORMALLY HIGH PW AIR MASS
WITH VALUES LIKELY TO EXCEED OVER 150% OF NORMAL. MJO SIGNAL IS
WEAK ATTM ACCORDING TO LATEST CPC ASSESSMENT BUT H2 VELOCITY
ANOMALIES FROM THE EMPIRICAL MODEL SHOWS FVRBL CONDITIONS FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. LATEST SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD EVENT HERE
WAS ON CHIRSTMAS EVE 2009 WHICH COINCIDED WITH A STRONG MJO SIGNAL
WHILE RIGHT NOW THE MJO IS IN A WEAK PHASE. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR SEEMS TO BE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. WILL LET MIDNIGHT
SHIFT REEVALUATE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. WET WEATHER EXPECTED
FRI NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF SAT WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVING SAT NIGHT AS FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH. HAVE
BUMPED POPS AND QPF FIRST 36 HRS.

A DRYING TREND EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE TRIES TO TAKE
CONTROL AND SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS LOOK TO PASS WELL TO THE
NORTH. NEXT SIGNIFICANT CDFNT ON TRACK FOR NEXT THU WITH A WET
GRAY WEEKEND LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT APPROACHING REGION SHIFTING WINDS TO NW THEN
NORTH OVER TJSJ...TJBQ...TIST AND TISX. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL 18Z WHEN SHRA COULD MOVE INTO THE TJSJ AREA. INCLUDED ONLY
VCSH AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. AFTER 18Z SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH MORE LIKELIHOOD AFTER 270000.

&&

.MARINE...ISSUED SCA FOR ATLC WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. TWO GROUP
OF SWELLS ONE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER ONE FROM THE NW WILL
AFFECT THE ATLC WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH SCA AND HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY.

[Gustywind]