Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Front zagging towards the north coast of Puerto Rico this morning.Swells will increase bigtime on Saturday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
551 AM AST FRI FEB 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...STILL EXPECT FA TO REMAIN LOCATED BETWEEN MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS TO THE WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST AND MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS MOVING NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST AND PASS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT BEFORE
LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND WSR-88D
INDICATING SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM MONA ISLAND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND MOVING STEADILY EAST SOUTHEAST. EXPECT A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATER TODAY...
WITH INTERIOR AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO APPEARING TO BE THE
MOST FAVORED AREAS...WHILE IN CONTRAST...ST CROIX REMAINS MAINLY
DRY. SOME SHOWERS AND ANY STORMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY AS LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS AUGMENT
ACTIVITY. WITH BOUNDARY LINGERING NEARBY...STILL EXPECT SOME
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF SATURDAY...BEFORE LIFTING "BACK" TO THE NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OVERALL DRYING TAKING PLACE.
BY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL BE WATCHING
NEXT APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MODERATE...LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. THESE 4
TO 5 OR 6 FOOT SWELLS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO
12 FEET...ENCOMPASSING THE 10 FOOT BREAKING WAVE...HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THEREFORE...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY
BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER...DO
EXPECT BRIEF MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO. MONTSERRAT VOLCANO REMAINS MAINLY QUIET AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY. LARGER...LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS TODAY
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THESE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT AND FOR OTHER SURROUNDING WATERS SATURDAY MORNING.
PLEASE REFER TO SJUCWFSJU AND SJUMWWSJU FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE MERCURY AT THE SAN JUAN LUIS MUNOZ MARIN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED 93 DEGREES AT 3:05 PM AST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY 25TH OF 92 DEGREES SET IN 1983. ADDITIONALLY...THE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THURSDAY WAS 76 DEGREES AND THIS TIED THE
RECORD WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 25TH OF 76
DEGREES SET IN 1983 AND PREVIOUSLY IN 1978.

[Macrocane]

Good morning!
The minimum temperature in San Salvador today reached 16.7 °C (62.1 °F) it was lower than yesterday's minimum but as the front has moved east and the high pressure has weakened there won't be more cold air entering today so the maximum could be higher than yesterday.

[cycloneye]

Updated discussion by NWS San Juan

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1146 AM AST FRI FEB 26 2010

.UPDATE...CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...TWO
SETS OF LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS MARINE
CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBY TO REACH TIST
AFT 26/17Z...AND TISX AND TNCM AFTER 26/20Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 27/00Z...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH 28/00Z AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE.

[cycloneye]

Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 AM AST Saturday

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1038 AM AST FRI FEB 26 2010

...HAZARDOUS SEAS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...

.LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST AND NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL WILL INCREASE IN
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.|

AMZ741-742-262245-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SC.Y.0019.100227T1000Z-100228T1000Z/
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
1038 AM AST FRI FEB 26 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO
6 AM AST SUNDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO
6 AM AST SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND
SEAS OF 7 FEET AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

[cycloneye]

So far 2010 has been for the most part a warm one in Puerto Rico.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=record100225

Code: Select all

2010 Daily Maximum/Minimum Temperature Records to Date
Record Type New Record Date Previous Record Year
         
High Temperature 89ºF January 2nd 87ºF 1996
High Temperature 88ºF January 4th 87ºF 1996
High Temperature 89ºF January 5th 89ºF 1980
Coolest High Temperature 76ºF January 14th 76ºF 1970
Warmest Low Temperature 75ºF January 23rd 75ºF 1982
High Temperature 88ºF February 3rd 87ºF 2009
Warmest Low Temperature 74ºF February 14th 74ºF 2008
Warmest Low Temperature 75ºF February 16th 75ºF 1981
Warmest Low Temperature 75ºF February 19th 75ºF 1979
Warmest Low Temperature 76ºF February 20th 75ºF 1974
Warmest Low Temperature 76ºF February 24th 75ºF 1979
High Temperature 93ºF February 25th 92ºF 1983
Warmest Low Temperature 76ºF February 25th 76ºF 1983


 
*Records from the Luis Muñoz Marin International Airport date back to January 1st, 1956

 

 


[cycloneye]

High Surf Advisory in effect from 8 AM AST Saturday

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST FRI FEB 26 2010

...THE COMBINATION OF LONG PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY
SWELLS WILL CREATE VERY HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-270300-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.SU.Y.0007.100227T1200Z-100228T1400Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
253 PM AST FRI FEB 26 2010

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM AST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 8 AM AST SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH 10 AM AST SUNDAY.

LONG PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY. IN ADDITION...A
SECOND BATCH OF LARGER NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS WILL PEAK DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY...RESULTING IN BREAKING WAVES OF
10 TO 15 FEET ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED REEFS...SHOALS AND
COASTLINES OF THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
BEGINNING AROUND 8 AM AST SATURDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW OUTWARD
FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO
NOT PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR BEARINGS RELATIVE
TO THE BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU WILL EVENTUALLY
LEAVE THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM
TO SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS ARE
URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE
BREAKING WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF
ALL SIZES INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE
LINE AND STAY OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

THESE SURGING WAVES WILL ALSO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR BEACH
EROSION DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

THE TIMES OF THE HIGH TIDE FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 1.3 FEET AT 8:03 AM AST SATURDAY
MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 1.3 FEET AT 7:15 AM AST SATURDAY

STAY TUNED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
SAN JUAN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

A shower is falling while I type this post and it feels less warmer than in the past few days.For beachgoers,be very careful this weekend with the rip corrents.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
320 PM AST FRI FEB 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A SERIES OF MID LATITUDE
TROUGHS PASSING OVER THE HIGH OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND
EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL KEEP FLOW OVER PUERTO
RICO MOSTLY ZONAL FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS AT UPPER LEVELS AND WEST
SOUTHWEST AT MID LEVELS. MID LEVELS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR
WEAK MOISTURE INCREASES DURING FRONTAL APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY NIGHT...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. AS OF 26/19Z IT WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST SOUTHWEST ACROSS
SAINT THOMAS OR JUST SOUTHEAST. THE FRONTAL APPROACHES ENUMERATED ABOVE
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITH SOME INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT FUTURE FRONTS ARE NOT SEEN PASSING PUERTO
RICO AT THIS TIME.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE NOT LIVED UP TO MODEL EXPECTATIONS AND
HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM THE NUMEROUS POPS FORECAST EARLIER. SHOWERS
ARE FORMING IN SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND A NEARLY SOLID CLOUD DECK CAN BE SEEN NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO DROPPED AT THE
BUOYS...BUT THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PROGRESS MUCH FARTHER
TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE TO FLOODING
TODAY OR TOMORROW FOR SURE...BUT RAINFALL COULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TONIGHT. FRONTAL PASSAGES DO NOT LOOK MUCH MORE
PRODUCTIVE FOR THE AREA DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT RETREAT OR THE
MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY APPROACH. CONTINUED STRONG LOWS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
WILL HOLD THE UPPER PATTERN IN A SIMILAR CONFIGURATION FOR AT
LEAST ANOTHER WEEK OR 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS SHIFTING WINDS TO N OVER
TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THESE SITES
THROUGH 27/00Z...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
VI...TJPS...TNCM AND TKPK. WHILE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CAN
THEN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN A PASSING -SHRA THROUGH AT
LEAST 27/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG WINDS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE GENERATED SWELL
FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL BEGIN ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT EVEN AS
SWELL FROM THE NORTHEAST CONTINUE TO BUILD. FOR THIS REASON WILL
BE RAISING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES DURING
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THIS IS A MARGINAL EVENT AND SHOULD NOT
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SAINT CROIX...BUT COULD EASILY PRODUCE
10 TO 15 FOOT BREAKING WAVES ALONG COASTS WITH EXPOSURE TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST. SWELL PEAK ON SATURDAY AND DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY...AS THIS IS NOT A LONG-LIVED EVENT.

[msbee]

hi everyone
it's been very hot and humid here today.
Current humidity is 84%.
Wind is from the W (280 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 KT)
that's from the airport met office.
where I live there is NO wind.
but wind from the west? very unusual.
Towering cumulus clouds observed
very dark and ominous clouds all around all day but no rain.....at least not where I live.
the dew point is 75 degrees.
it's very sticky uncomfortable weather
But at least it's not snowing.

Barbara

[cycloneye]

I would like to see rainfall in the Lesser Antille islands like what is happening in Puerto Rico.

[Gustywind]

Ohhh first time since 15 days: heres is the noise of the rain (scattered and pretty light shower) on my roof . Let's hope much more, whereas not much excitement as the extreme drought continues here! It's pretty hot and moist.

[cycloneye]

Updated discussion by NWS San Juan

Raining with a fresh NE breeze here.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
947 PM AST FRI FEB 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
PR THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING THEN BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTH
TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW-MID LVL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH ANOTHER CDFNT POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING HOWEVER
STATIONARY BDRY ALG THE ATLC COAST AND A MOIST AIR MASS WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH TOMORROW. EVEN IF IT DOESNT RAIN AT
YOUR PLACE TOMORROW ANTICIPATE A CLOUDY DAY OVERALL WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION SOUTHWEST PR AND ST. CROIX WHERE MORE SUNNY BREAKS ARE
EXPECTED. BDRY LIFTS TO THE NORTH SAT NIGHT WITH RAPID DRYING
EXPECTED.

SUN-THU OF NEXT WEEK...H85-H7 ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CNTRL TROPICAL
ATLC WILL MAINTAIN STRONG LOW TO MID LVL RIDGING ACROSS THE ERN
CARIBBEAN WITH MODELS MAINTAING A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS.
EXPECTING NO WEATHER AT ALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ANTICIPATE HOT
WEATHER WITH RECORD BREAKING TEMPS POSSIBLE ALG THE NORTH COAST
DUE TO SRLY WIND FLOW.

NEXT WX MAKER OF SIGNIFICANCE IS AN AREA OF LOW PRES THAT IS FCST
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GMEX EARLY TUE AND INTENSIFY QUICKLY AS IT
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. OP GFS AND GFES
SHOW THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT WORKING INTO OUR AREA NEXT FRI MARCH 06.
WHILE CURRENTLY THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS MEMBERS
INDICATING THIS BDRY STALLING OUT OVR THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND THE OP
GFS AND GFES HAVE BEEN TOO PROGRESSIVE THIS WINTER SEASON WITH
THE GFS/GFES VERIFYING TOO FAR SEWD SVRL DAYS IN ADVANCE. THIS WAS
DISCUSSED TODAY IN THE EXTENDED FCST DISCUSSION FROM HPC WITH THE
ECMWF/CMC/UKMET AND NOGAPS VERIFYING BETTER THAN THE GFS AT LONGER
LEAD TIMES. ON THE OTHER HAND IF THE GFS TURNS OUT RIGHT A WET
GRAY WEEKEND COULD IN STORE NEXT WEEK.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK IS SUPPORTED BY A
WEAK MJO WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE CNTRL TROPICAL
PACIFIC WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS IN DOWNWARD MOTION ACROSS THE
ERN CARIBBEAN. SO HAVE VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS DRY SPELL NEXT
WEEK UNTIL POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT
COULD WORK INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS AT TJSJ...TJBQ THROUGH 15Z SAT
WITH VCSH THEN IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OTHERS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED SUN-WED.

&&

.MARINE...SEVEN FOOT SEAS REPORTED AT BUOY 41043 WITH A PERIOD OF
ONLY 7 SECS. MARINE MODELS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE VERIFYING TOO WELL
ATTM INDICATING WAVE PERIOD SHOULD BE MORE LIKE 12-13 SECS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN LOWER BREAKING WAVES TOMORROW THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FCST AS MUCH OF THE BREAKING WAVE ACTION WOULD HAVE TO
BE GENERATED FROM THE 6-7 FT NW SWELLS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE. AT THIS TIME
DO NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE TO ALTER HIGH SURF ADVISORY CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT FOR TOMORROW. SCA CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED HOWEVER.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Rain,rain,rain is the word here.I can send it to the islands that are in the drought.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST SAT FEB 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE EXPECTED SYNOPTICALLY FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS FA REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHINESS TO THE WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS
MOVING ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY AND WILL THEN BEGIN TO LIFT
TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SATELLITE
STILL SHOWING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
WSR-88D STILL INDICATING PERSISTENT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING...BUT NOT BEFORE AREAS
OF PONDED WATER ON ROADWAYS AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OCCURS.
AFTER THESE SHOWERS DWINDLE...STILL EXPECT A RATHER CLOUDY
SCENARIO FOR MOST OF THE FA TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVERALL DRYING IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER
VERY WARM TO HOT DAY ALONG NORTH COASTAL SECTIONS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE LOCAL AREA BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL GET HUNG UP MAINLY
NORTH OF THE FA...WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND LEAVING ADDITIONAL VERY WARM TO HOT AND MAINLY
DRY DAYS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 8 AM THIS MORNING
FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF ALL OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...EXCEPT ST CROIX...AS MODERATE...LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELLS BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES AND RESULTANT 8 TO 12 FOOT BREAKING WAVES AFFECT THE
LOCAL COASTLINES.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT MOST LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TODAY.
HOWEVER...DO EXPECT MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TO CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS THROUGH 27/14Z OR
15Z...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
TJSJ IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE MONTSERRAT VOLCANO
REMAINS MAINLY QUIET AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE...LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY
AND THEN CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAKING FOR ROUGH AND
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN
EFFECT OR WILL GO INTO EFFECT BY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. PLEASE REFER TO
SJUCWFSJU AND SJUMWWSJU FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
745 AM AST SAT FEB 27 2010

PRC021-029-031-037-053-061-089-119-127-139-271400-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-100227T1400Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-LUQUILLO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CEIBA PR-
CANOVANAS PR-FAJARDO PR-CAROLINA PR-SAN JUAN PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
745 AM AST SAT FEB 27 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TRUJILLO ALTO...LUQUILLO...GUAYNABO...CEIBA...
CANOVANAS...FAJARDO...CAROLINA...SAN JUAN AND RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 1000 AM AST

PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OFF
THE EL YUNQUE RAIN FOREST ACROSS SECTIONS OF LUQUILLO...RIO
GRANDE...CANOVANAS AND PORTIONS OF THE METRO AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...THE
FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS REDUCED
VISIBILITIES THROUGH 10 AM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[Gustywind]

CAN WE HAVE SOME RAIN PLEASE!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1105 AM AST SAT FEB 27 2010

.UPDATE...THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME. INCREASED SHOWER
AND CLOUD COVERAGE A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST NECESSARY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 27/23Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THEREAFTER. IN ADDITION...BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 27/17Z.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

It looks like another next wet weekend ahead for PR.Hopefully,this next front moves more southward to reach the islands that have a dry spell now.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST SAT FEB 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...SUCCESSIVE MID LATITUDE
TROUGHS KEEP FLOW WEST SOUTHWEST OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AT UPPER
LEVELS AND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT MID LEVELS. MID LEVELS HAVE
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE EVEN AT THEIR WETTEST TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PULLING NORTH OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AND WILL CLEAR THE AREA ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT...LEANS OVER ON MONDAY AND PULLS NORTH OF
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. IT IS FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A THIRD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL SLOWLY SAG INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...AND MAY REACH SAINT CROIX BY THE SUNDAY AFTER NEXT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RAIN AND SHOWERS BROUGHT ONE HALF TO TWO INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND SOME
SHOWERS REMAIN SCATTERED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL INTERIOR...NORTH
CENTRAL INTERIOR AND THE EAST AS WELL AS OVER VIEQUES THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WERE ALSO SEEN CROSSING SAINT CROIX EARLIER THIS MORNING.
IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE FRONT IS MOVING BACK ACROSS THE AREA AND
WINDS HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN VIEQUES AND SAINT CROIX. MOST
OF THE SHOWERS WERE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND SKIES ARE MUCH CLEARER
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SO THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DECREASE QUICKLY
ONCE THE BOUNDARY IS CLEAR OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMES DOWN.

AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE SECOND FRONT WILL REACH
PUERTO RICO...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY RESULT FROM ITS CLOSE APPROACH...BUT
THE THIRD LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING WET WEATHER AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK THAT
MAY STAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ AND
TJMZ THROUGH 27/23Z. IN ADDITION...BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA. IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED AFT
27/23Z...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE AT 10-15KT BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...THE WAVE WATCH IS EITHER SLOW OR TOO HIGH ON SWELL
EXPECTED AT BUOY 41043...HENCE 3.1 METER SEAS FORECAST TO ARRIVE
MIDDAY AT THE BUOY HAVE ONLY BEEN ABLE TO ATTAIN 2.1 METERS. SO
FAR NO HIGH SURF HAS BEEN CONFIRMED ON LOCAL SHORES. NEVERTHELESS
ALTHOUGH SURF MAY BE LOWER THAN EXPECTED...IT IS STILL POSSIBLE TO
HAVE BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET IN A FEW OF THE MOST FAVORED
SPOTS WITH THE SWELL NOW PASSING THE BUOY THEREFORE WILL NOT CANCEL THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY JUST YET. NEXT SIGNIFICANT EVENT NOT DUE IN
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK AND WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL. ATLANTIC SEAS
WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY QUIET UNTIL THEN...HOWEVER...AND SEAS OF
AT LEAST 4 FEET SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. IN THE
CARIBBEAN...SEAS ARE QUIET BUT WILL COME UP SLOWLY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TO THE POINT THAT SMALL CRAFT MAY HAVE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION.

[Gustywind]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

It looks like another next wet weekend ahead for PR.Hopefully,this next front moves more southward to reach the islands that have a dry spell now.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST SAT FEB 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...SUCCESSIVE MID LATITUDE
TROUGHS KEEP FLOW WEST SOUTHWEST OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AT UPPER
LEVELS AND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT MID LEVELS. MID LEVELS HAVE
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE EVEN AT THEIR WETTEST TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PULLING NORTH OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AND WILL CLEAR THE AREA ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT...LEANS OVER ON MONDAY AND PULLS NORTH OF
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. IT IS FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A THIRD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL SLOWLY SAG INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...AND MAY REACH SAINT CROIX BY THE SUNDAY AFTER NEXT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RAIN AND SHOWERS BROUGHT ONE HALF TO TWO INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND SOME
SHOWERS REMAIN SCATTERED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL INTERIOR...NORTH
CENTRAL INTERIOR AND THE EAST AS WELL AS OVER VIEQUES THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WERE ALSO SEEN CROSSING SAINT CROIX EARLIER THIS MORNING.
IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE FRONT IS MOVING BACK ACROSS THE AREA AND
WINDS HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN VIEQUES AND SAINT CROIX. MOST
OF THE SHOWERS WERE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND SKIES ARE MUCH CLEARER
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SO THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DECREASE QUICKLY
ONCE THE BOUNDARY IS CLEAR OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMES DOWN.

AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE SECOND FRONT WILL REACH
PUERTO RICO...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY RESULT FROM ITS CLOSE APPROACH...BUT
THE THIRD LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING WET WEATHER AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK THAT
MAY STAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ AND
TJMZ THROUGH 27/23Z. IN ADDITION...BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA. IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED AFT
27/23Z...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE AT 10-15KT BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...THE WAVE WATCH IS EITHER SLOW OR TOO HIGH ON SWELL
EXPECTED AT BUOY 41043...HENCE 3.1 METER SEAS FORECAST TO ARRIVE
MIDDAY AT THE BUOY HAVE ONLY BEEN ABLE TO ATTAIN 2.1 METERS. SO
FAR NO HIGH SURF HAS BEEN CONFIRMED ON LOCAL SHORES. NEVERTHELESS
ALTHOUGH SURF MAY BE LOWER THAN EXPECTED...IT IS STILL POSSIBLE TO
HAVE BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET IN A FEW OF THE MOST FAVORED
SPOTS WITH THE SWELL NOW PASSING THE BUOY THEREFORE WILL NOT CANCEL THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY JUST YET. NEXT SIGNIFICANT EVENT NOT DUE IN
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK AND WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL. ATLANTIC SEAS
WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY QUIET UNTIL THEN...HOWEVER...AND SEAS OF
AT LEAST 4 FEET SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. IN THE
CARIBBEAN...SEAS ARE QUIET BUT WILL COME UP SLOWLY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TO THE POINT THAT SMALL CRAFT MAY HAVE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION.

Yeah Cycloneye, glad to see that... but given their latest weather forecast Meteo-France expect only more clouds but not a decent amount of water from this front

[Macrocane]

Good afternoon.
A new cold front is going to bring northerly winds to Central America, it is not expected to be as strong as the one we have a couple of days ago but the winds have already increased in El Salvador. I will post some observations tomorrow

[cycloneye]

Updated discussion by NWS San Juan

After the rains that fell this morning,Puerto Rico returns to a dry and warmer period than usual for this time of the year.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
818 PM AST SAT FEB 27 2010

.UPDATE...DRIER AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. ONLY SOME SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS...BUT LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL WAS DETECTED OVER LAND
AFTER SUNSET. THIS GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK...AND EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
BY COMPUTER MODELS WITH GFS PROG SOUNDING INDICATING PW VALUES
WILL DROP AS LOW AS 1.20 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COMPARE TO
NEAR 2.0 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALSO TO SHIFT
MORE SOUTHEAST...AND WARMER THAN NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES COULD
BE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. WINDS
ARE FORECAST BY COMPUTER MODELS TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
WINDS NEAR 20-25KT BETWEEN 1000MB-850MB LEVELS. IN THE LONG
TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...BOUY 41043 SHOWS SEAS CONTINUES BETWEEN 6 TO 7 FEET AT
10 SECONDS PERIOD....WHICH WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING.

[Gustywind]

- Updates from the Islands -
- - Dominica - -
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... nica.shtml

- The Dry Season
By Peter Dick <peter at balvine.com>
Date: Sun, 28 Feb 2010 06:28:24 +0000

We operate a Government supplied rain gauge and record the daily rainfall in mm. This month has seen the lowest rainfall for many years and farmers who don't have a sprinkler system are starting to become very concerned about the lack of rain. The totals for February for the last eight years show:

February

2003 120
2004 219
2005 227
2006 101
2007 68
2008 152
2009 128
2010 14

Please remember Dominica has micro climates and our records, taken at Balvine in the North West, will not be the same as other places on the island.

Bye/P