Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

It looks like this here:

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

Lets see if the next weekend's front moves more southward and dumps needed rain to the Lesser Antilles that are in a dry spell at this time.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
341 PM AST MON MAR 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AND
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. A MID LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER TROUGH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
PUERTO RICO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WEAKLY DURING THE FOLLOWING WEEK. MID LEVELS WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
WILL SAG TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT BEFORE RETREATING TO THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY. THE DRY AIR IN THE SOUTH FLOW BEHIND THIS
RETREATING FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA UNTIL ANOTHER FRONT FROM
THE NORTHWEST INVADES THE AREA TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE
WILL THEN CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA IN AND AROUND THE FRONT
HOLDING RAINY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER HISPANIOLA HAS SENT
FRAGMENTS OF MOISTURE AND MINOR BOUNDARIES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
INTO THE CARIBBEAN BUT ULTIMATELY HAS YIELDED VERY LITTLE WEATHER
FOR PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OTHER THAN WEAK
SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE
MINOR BOUNDARIES. THE HAZY SKIES HAVE MANY COMPONENTS...THE
FOREMOST OF WHICH IS THE SAHARAN DUST WHICH SHOWS UP ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS A LARGE PALL FROM THE CONTINENT TO NEARLY 47 WEST AND
FROM 21 NORTH TO SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR EAST OF BRAZIL. ALL LOWER
AIR TRAJECTORIES SHOW AIR TRAVELING NORTH AROUND THE EDGE OF A
LONG HIGH NEAR 20 NORTH LATITUDE AND MAKING A RIGHT TURN FROM
LOWER LATITUDES TO PUERTO RICO. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE FOR
MORE THAN 36 HOURS AND THE HAZE IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE MUCH
UNTIL ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SOME ASH CAN BE SEEN
MOVING WEST A SHORT DISTANCE FROM MONTSERRAT AT THIS TIME...BUT
IT IS NOT PLAYING A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE CURRENT RESTRICTIONS
TO VISIBILITY.

THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL RETREAT RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY AIR...AND LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE
A SLOW PROCESS THAT BEGINS ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT MAY STALL ON
SATURDAY OVER THE AREA COMPOUNDING THE CLOUDY AND RAINY CHARACTER
OF THE WEEKEND. UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW THE JET HOVERING SOMEWHAT
NORTH AND NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT UNTIL THE MAJOR TROUGH
PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS
THE FRONT PASSING PUERTO RICO AND SAINT CROIX WITH MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT INFLUENCING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS ALSO
SUGGESTING THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN...ALBEIT WEAKLY...BACK
OVER THE AREA THE FOLLOWING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TAF SITES.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS
AND AFTER 22Z SHOULD DECREASE TO 5 KNOTS. A LAYER OF HAZE HAS
PERSISTED DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP VISIBILITIES
FROM AROUND 6 TO 10 NM MAINLY ACROSS SOME OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL SHOW A BRIEF INCREASE IN HEIGHT TONIGHT AND
THEN SUBSIDE UNSTEADILY THROUGH MIDDAY ON THURSDAY. AFTER WHICH
ANOTHER SWELL GROUP WILL ENTER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND NOT
FULLY SUBSIDE BEFORE ANOTHER ON SUNDAY.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
448 AM AST TUE MAR 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASED SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS NORTHERN PUERTO
RICO. IN ADDITION...WITH PW ALREADY PLUMMETING IN PROFILER DATA
AND A STRONG CAP IN PLACE...EXPECT VERY LIMITED TO NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY DRY AND
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER FRONT...APPROACHES THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAIN QUESTION THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS IS HOW MUCH HAZE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW STEERING PARTICULATES FROM THE CARIBBEAN
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...OPTED TO KEEP SOME HAZE IN FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR
SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE A CLOUDY AND WET WEEKEND CAN BE
EXPECTED AS A RESULT...WILL LIKELY ALSO SEE UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR A CHANGE...AS THICKNESSES PLUMMET....AND GUIDANCE
IS FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES OF ONLY 81 AND 80 IN SAN JUAN FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE MONTSERRAT
VOLCANO REMAINS QUIET AT THIS TIME.

[Macrocane]

The front that will reach Puerto Rico this weekend is the same that is approaching Central America today, northerly winds will begin to affect El Salvador tonight. By the way, I think this is one of the last cold fronts to enter the area, as March and April are the warmest months in Central America because of the lack of cool air and rains. Here is what the last TWD says:

GAP WINDS...
WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW CENTERED ALONG 30W LIES A DEEP LAYER
LOW OVER THE U.S. STATES BORDERING THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE
LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AND APPROACH
NEAR STORM FORCE OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE WED EVENING.

AS THIS COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA...WINDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE 20
KT FIRST IN THE GULF OF FONSECA TUE NIGHT AND THEN IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO BY WED MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE GULF OF
FONSECA WED AFTERNOON...BUT MODERATE NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

If this next weekend front pushes further south than the past ones,it would be good news for the islands that are currently in a drought period.Lets see if it pushes more south than what GFS has.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

That strong front continues in the forecast to arrive to the NE Caribbean by friday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST TUE MAR 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED SHOWERS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR IS REPORTING SHOWER FREE CONDITIONS
BUT A FEW LATE SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THIS DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR LOCAL FORCAST AREA ON
FRIDAY....INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY WIND SPEED...CLOUD AND SHOWER
COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF DO NOT AGREE THE
TIME OF ARRIVAL OF THIS COLD FRONT.


&&

.AVIATION...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HOWEVER...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MONTSERRAT
VOLCANO REMAINS QUIET AT THIS TIME.


&&

.MARINE...THE NORTHERN SWELL THAT AFFECTED OUR LOCAL WATERS FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS...CONTINUED TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET. SEAS WILL START TO INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FRONT RUNNERS OF THE NEXT SWELL EVENT ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS. THIS SWELL EVENT IS EXPECTED
TO PEAK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE ON WIND IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

[Gustywind]

NEW RECORD BROKE
5.6 MILLEMETERS OF WATER FOR FEBRUARY AT LE RAIZET GUADELOUPE!
Theses numbers are those from Meteo-France Guadeloupe. Anothers records have been broke in Martinica, especially at le Lamentin. February and this episode of drought has beat all the records since the beginning of the measurements at this stations, that means since 1947! Only 3,4 millimeters of water at le Lamentin! During 28 days... only 1 day of rain!

[cycloneye]

NEW RECORD BROKE
5.6 MILLEMETERS OF WATER FOR FEBRUARY AT LE RAIZET GUADELOUPE!
Theses numbers are those from Meteo-France Guadeloupe. Anothers records have been broke in Martinica, especially at le Lamentin. February and this episode of drought has beat all the records since the beginning of the measurements at this stations, that means since 1947! Only 3,4 millimeters of water at le Lamentin! During 28 days... only 1 day of rain!

Oh boy,that is very bad its occuring in those islands.Hopefully,things turn for the best soon as the rainy season draws closer and the Tropical waves bring soaking rains to aliviate the drought conditions in the Lesser Antilles islands.

[Gustywind]

NEW RECORD BROKE
5.6 MILLEMETERS OF WATER FOR FEBRUARY AT LE RAIZET GUADELOUPE!
Theses numbers are those from Meteo-France Guadeloupe. Anothers records have been broke in Martinica, especially at le Lamentin. February and this episode of drought has beat all the records since the beginning of the measurements at this stations, that means since 1947! Only 3,4 millimeters of water at le Lamentin! During 28 days... only 1 day of rain!

Oh boy,that is very bad its occuring in those islands.Hopefully,things turn for the best soon as the rainy season draws closer and the Tropical waves bring soaking rains to aliviate the drought conditions in the Lesser Antilles islands.

I was amazed yesterday when i've discovered these numbers Yeah Luis let's hope that the twaves will bring some water much needed.

[cycloneye]

Updated discussion by NWS San Juan

This in my estimation is the strongest front that will arrive to Puerto Rico during this winter.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
927 PM AST TUE MAR 2 2010

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY PATTERN IN STORE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. DURING THIS TIME...WINDS WILL VEER
TOWARDS THE SOUTH...RESULTING IN MORE WEAK FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON TIMING...BUT ALL BRING
DEEP LAYERED POLAR TROUGH INTO W ATLC WITH SHEAR LINE EXTENDING
DOWN TO THE GREATER ANTILLES BY 00Z FRIDAY. CLOUDINESS WILL
INCREASE BEGINNING FRIDAY...WITH LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY OVER
THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS SHEAR
LINE BOUNDARY APPROACHES...RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND PRE FRONTAL
TROUGHINESS INDUCED IN THE WEAK FLOW WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND TURN NORTHERLY LIKELY
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AS MOISTURE
CONVERGES OVER PR. PERSONALLY AM FAVORING THE EURO SOLUTION WHICH
BRINGS MAIN SHEAR LINE INTO THE MONA CHANNEL BY 12Z
SATURDAY...WITH BEST LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOT OVER PR UNTIL
SATURDAY EVENING. BY SUNDAY BASE OF U/L TROUGH ROUNDS THE LOCAL
AREA BRINGING BEST MOISTURE PROFILE AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER SYSTEM PROGRESSES WHILE ANOTHER DEEP U/L
SWINGS OUT INTO THE NW ATLC. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
LINGER AS TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERLIES LINGERS THROUGH THE LATE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS PREVAILED DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA AND AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION FOR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL
IMPACTS FORECAST FOR THE FLYING AREA AND LOCAL TERMINAL AERODROMES.
ALTHOUGH A SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW 0F 5-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL FM
SFC-150K FT...THE SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO AT TRPG REMAINED QUIET
WITH ONLY FAINT TRACES OF GAS EMISSION EXTENDING JUST A FEW MILES
NW OF THE ISLAND.

[HUC]

...And 2.2mm at Basse-Terre!!!!...Record of drought. Since december 20th 2009 ,only 40mmm (that's to say in 71 days, more than 2 months)...and ths volcanic ash is always present over the leaves....

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.As I said before,the front that is expected to arrive by the weekend will be the strongest one that has made it to Puerto Rico.Hopefully,it will move more southward and dump rain to the Leeward and Windward islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
701 AM AST WED MAR 3 2010

.UPDATE...RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS THAT WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE
STRONG WITH 28 KT DOWN TO 1300 FT AND 33 KT AT 2500 FEET. WENT A
LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IN THE WIND ADVISORY AND JUST INCLUDED ABOVE
2000 FEET AWAITING FOR 12Z RAOB AND MORE AIRCRAFT DATA. WINDS
LOOKS TO BE STRONGEST DURING THE MORNING AND DIMINISH SOMEWHAT DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM AST WED MAR 3 2010/

SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HOLD STRONG OVER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. DEEP POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN U.S. WILL
PUSH A CDFNT INTO AREA THIS WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND A VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP EVIDENT ON
AMDAR DATA LATE LAST EVENING THAT HAS STRENGHTENED/LOWERED DOWN TO
2KFT SINCE 00Z LAST NIGHT. BASICALLY HOT AND DRY. NO HAZE BEING
REPORTED IN THE REGIONAL AREA ATTM AND VERY DIFFICULT TO DETECT
IT AT NIGHT WITHOUT VIS IMAGERY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL DAYLIGHT
HRS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY HAZE AROUND AND/OR WAIT UNTIL NOON OR
SO WHEN ONE OF THE IMAGES FROM THE TERRA SATELLITE FROM NASA
BECOMES AVAILABLE. HOWEVER CAN`T COMPLETELY RULED OUT HAZE GIVEN
VERY STRONG SUBSIDENT PATTERN. IT SHOULD REMAIN HOT AND DRY
THROUGH THU.

BIG CHANGES STILL IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND AS A POLAR TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ERN USA/WRN ATLC SENDING A CDFNT INTO OUR AREA
SAT THAT WILL LINGER NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
NEXT WED. STRONG JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WITH
SPEEDS APPROACHING 100-KT AS FAR SOUTH AS 20N WILL MAINTAIN STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALG THIS BDRY GUARANTEEING A CLOUDY WET WEEKEND.
HAVE BOOSTED CLOUDS AND POPS FROM SAT INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW
IMPRESSIVE LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE FROM SAT THROUGH SUN. WE COULD
BE LOOKING AT SOME FLOODING. MJO SIGNAL REMAINS WEAK ATTM AND WOULD
LIKE IT TO SEE IT ON A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN TO BE MORE CONFIDENT
ON A SIG FLOODING EVENT.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA MON BUT BDRY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND STILL SHOWERY WX
INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTER 90F WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW TEMPERATURES
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
AREA WILL REMAIN SUCKED IN A LOW OVERCAST.

AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE MONTSERRAT
VOLCANO REMAINS QUIET AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY BUT SEAS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OFFSHORE ATLC WITH MARGINAL SCAS. LARGER
NORTHWEST SWELLS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THU NIGHT WITH SOLID SCA OVER
UNPROTECTED WATERS. MARGINAL HIGH SURF EVENT AND OF SHORT DURATION
POSSIBLE.

CLIMATE...RECORD FOR TODAY AT SJU IS 92 SET BACK IN 1981. WE
COULD COME VERY CLOSE TO THAT TODAY WITH STRAIGHT SRLY FLOW.

[Macrocane]

Good morning! It's a windy day in El Salvador, I would say we have the strongest winds since February 18 although the minimum temperature in San Salvador this morning was 20 °C (68 °F) I guess tomorrow will be the day that the decrease in the minimum temperature will be experienced. The front at this time has reached the Gulf of Fonseca, Caribbean folks should watch this front as it is the one that cycloneye has been talking about.

[msbee]

NEW RECORD BROKE
5.6 MILLEMETERS OF WATER FOR FEBRUARY AT LE RAIZET GUADELOUPE!
Theses numbers are those from Meteo-France Guadeloupe. Anothers records have been broke in Martinica, especially at le Lamentin. February and this episode of drought has beat all the records since the beginning of the measurements at this stations, that means since 1947! Only 3,4 millimeters of water at le Lamentin! During 28 days... only 1 day of rain!

wow, that is really bad gusty
amazingly low numbers.
I'm still working on the rain Gods for you..for me too actually.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST WED MAR 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING INCREASED SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ISLANDS. CLEAR SKIES AND SHOWER FREE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS
STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ALL MODELS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO OUR PREVAILING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR LOCAL FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY....INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY WIND SPEED...CLOUD AND
SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE MONTSERRAT
VOLCANO REMAINS QUIET AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON FRIDAY
WHEN SEAS FORECAST INCREASE. A MODERATE SWELL IN COMBINATION WITH
INCREASING WINDS WILL GENERATE CONFUSE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. THE SCA
CONDITIONS DURATION WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF ARRIVAL AND THE
MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT.

[Gustywind]

...And 2.2mm at Basse-Terre!!!!...Record of drought. Since december 20th 2009 ,only 40mmm (that's to say in 71 days, more than 2 months)...and ths volcanic ash is always present over the leaves....

What HUC? 2.2 mm it's a joke? Thanks for these numbers, i'm amazed too, pretty...is an euphemisma!

[Gustywind]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST WED MAR 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING INCREASED SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ISLANDS. CLEAR SKIES AND SHOWER FREE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS
STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ALL MODELS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO OUR PREVAILING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR LOCAL FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY....INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY WIND SPEED...CLOUD AND
SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE MONTSERRAT
VOLCANO REMAINS QUIET AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON FRIDAY
WHEN SEAS FORECAST INCREASE. A MODERATE SWELL IN COMBINATION WITH
INCREASING WINDS WILL GENERATE CONFUSE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. THE SCA
CONDITIONS DURATION WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF ARRIVAL AND THE
MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT.

Let's hope that Cycloneye but Meteo-France is not so optimistic: not much changes for the week-end, more clouds but no rain is anticipated...

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Rain,rain,rain for Puerto Rico and Virgin islands starting tommorow,but as I have said before,hoping that all of this reaches the Leewards and Windwards.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST THU MAR 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HOLD FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO AND
THEN CRUMBLE AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN U.S. PUSHES A
CDFNT INTO AREA THIS WEEKEND. FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH
OF PR AND LINGER THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY IN STORE AS RIDGE HOLDS
STRONG. CDFNT ANALYZED FROM THE ATLC SW INTO THE ERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS TONIGHT. AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WEAKENS AND CDFNT APPROACHES FROM THE NW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK OUT FRI AFTERNOON ALG THE NORTH COAST. CDFNT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY THROUGH PR SAT AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...GUIDANCE SHOWS
A STRONG S/W TROUGH DIVING/ROTATING AROUND BASE OF MEAN TROUGH
WITH PR BECOMING UNDER FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE JET STREAK
DYNAMICS THAT SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ORGANIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN NIGHT. GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED
NATURE OF THIS TROUGH AND THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SFC FRONT
ACROSS PR AM CONCERNED FOR A POTENTIAL SIGNFICANT FLOODING EVENT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COAST. MODELS SHOW IMPRESSIVE LIFT
AND ABNORMALLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 200% OF NORMAL. THIS CDFNT APPEARS TO BE
THE STRONGEST AND LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST UPPER LVL DYNAMICS/SUPPORT
THAT WILL AFFECT PR SINCE THE CHRISTMAS EVE 2009 CDFNT THAT
TRIGGER FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PR.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA EARLY MON WITH
FRONT EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF PR MON AND
LINGER THERE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO A CLOUDY SHOWERY
WEEK AHEAD APPEARS ON TAP UNTIL WED OR THU OF NEXT WEEK WHEN
MODELS SHOW FRONT FINALLY DISSIPATING AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING AGAIN OVR THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL IMPACTS FORECAST FOR
THE FLYING AREA AND TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41043 INDICATES 6 FT SWELLS AROUND 13 SECS. SHALLOW
WAVE CALCULATOR INDICATES THAT 12 FT BREAKERS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING ATTM.
NORTH SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DECAY LATER TODAY SO THE CURRENT
EXPIRATION TIME FOR THE HIGH SURF LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER A NEW GROUP
OF NW SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING THAT COULD LEAD TO
MARGINAL HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AGAIN. DO NOT WANT TO EXTEND CURR HIGH
SURF AT THIS POINT SO WILL LET DAYSHIFT DECIDE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD FOR TODAY AT SJU IS 91F SET BACK IN 1978. A GOOD
CHANCE THAT WILL TIE OR PERHAPS BREAK IT. THE RECORD AT ST. THOMAS
IS ONLY 87F AND THERE IS ALSO A GOOD CHANCE THAT WE COULD TIE.

[Macrocane]

Good morning. The effects of the cold front persist in Central America, the northerly winds weakend during yesterday's afternoon but increased again overnight and the temperature are lower this morning than yesterday. A few observations:

In San Salvador the minimum yesterday was 20 °C (68 °F) and this morning the minimum was 18 °C (64.4 °F).
In San Miguel, the hottest city in El Salvador, the minimum yesterday was 24 °C (75.2 °F) and the lowest this morning was 21 °C (69.8 °F).
In Las Pilas, on of the coolest places, the lowest temperature yesterday was 11 °C (51.8 °C) today 10 °C (50 °F).

In Guatemala city the minimum on Tuesday was 15 °C (59 °F), yesterday 14 °C (57.2 °F), today 12 °C (53.6 °F).

In Tegucigalpa, yesterday 17 °C (62.6 °F) and today 15 °C (59 °F).

[cycloneye]

...And 2.2mm at Basse-Terre!!!!...Record of drought. Since december 20th 2009 ,only 40mmm (that's to say in 71 days, more than 2 months)...and ths volcanic ash is always present over the leaves....

What HUC? 2.2 mm it's a joke? Thanks for these numbers, i'm amazed too, pretty...is an euphemisma!

To HUC and Gustywind,if GFS verifies,it would be some good news for Guadeloupe as it shows the front zagging southward and reaching that beautiful island with some rain.Hopefully that is the case and the dry spell aliviates some.