Florida Weather

[HURRICANELONNY]

keep it cool till June 1st. Then Hurricane season. With La Nina in place. I think it will be a bad year.

[jinftl]

Latest NWS Miami forecast...looks like Friday and Friday night will be the coolest day/night in the current forecast period....

NWS Forecast for: Miami FL
Issued by: National Weather Service Miami - South Florida
Last Update: 3:23 pm EST Feb 18, 2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tonight: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.
Thursday: A 10 percent chance of showers after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83.
Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 52.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.
Saturday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 61.
Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77.
Sunday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a low around 59.
Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 62.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... TextType=1


GFS 16-Day (latest run as of posting) isn't quite as aggressive with upcoming cooldown...shows low friday night of 56 and no low temps below 60 thereafter. In fact, for days 8-16, no low temp below 69 deg in Miami!
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KMIA

Edit: NWS Miami now hinting at 'less cool' for next week as well...
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT DOES NOT
APPEAR AS COLD AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS, BUT NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO
NEXT WEEK`S TEMPERATURES DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
CONSISTENCY.

[JonathanBelles]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 30
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 AM EST THU FEB 19 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTH GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 155 AM UNTIL 900 AM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 145 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
WAYCROSS GEORGIA TO 5 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 29. WATCH NUMBER 29 WILL NOT BE IN
EFFECT AFTER 155 AM EST. CONTINUE...WW 26...WW 27...WW 28...

DISCUSSION...SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST 12Z ALONG LOOSELY-ORGANIZED PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS
EXTENDING WSW FROM NEAR VAD. ABSENCE OF STRONG LINEAR
FORCING...LONG RESIDENCE TIMES OF STORMS IN SATELLITE-DERIVED PW
AXIS...VERY STRONG/SLIGHTLY CURVED WIND PROFILES...AND EXPECTED
STRENGTHENING OF WIND FIELD/ LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH CONTINUED
AMPLIFICATION OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEMI-DISCRETE SVR STORMS AND ISOLD STRONG TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27045.

[jinftl]

NWS Miami has bumped up low temps forecast for friday night along coastal areas of south florida....and cut back on the rain chances it had hinted at as being a potentially widespread event late sunday into monday.

Per latest NWS Discussion

BUT THE AIR BEHIND THE
NEXT FRONT WON`T BE AS COLD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. PRECIP-
WISE, THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE WITH AND BEHIND THE SECOND
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCES OF RAIN
AT BEST MONDAY


NWS Forecast for: Miami FL
Issued by: National Weather Service Miami - South Florida
Last Update: 3:53 pm EST Feb 19, 2009

Tonight: A 10 percent chance of showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58.
Friday: A 10 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 71.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 59.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.
Saturday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.
Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79.
Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59.
Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75.
Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a low around 60.
Tuesday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 75.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 61.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... TextType=1

[gatorcane]

Looking at NWS plot forecasts for South Florida for the Fri. night cold event, there could be up to 10-12F degree temperature differences depending if you live inland or more towards the coast (say if you live out by 441 or by A1A a difference of about 7-8 miles). There is also about a 15-18F degree difference between inland Northern Palm Beach County and coastal Miami-Dade. For example:

Forecast Low for Fri night:
Indiantown: 42F with patchy frost
Miami Beach: 59F

This is due to N to NNE wind component that should exist along the coast but more decoupling of winds inland is expected, allowing for more raditional cooling.

[jinftl]

Freeze Watch for Glades and Hendry counties dropped....no Wind Chill Advisories posted

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
209 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH
CENTRAL CUBA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSISSIPPI WILL BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT. BY THE EARLY MORNING, THE HIGH SHOULD BE OVER GEORGIA
AND THIS WILL HELP KEEP UP THE WINDS A LITTLE BIT OVER THE
NORTHWEST. THE GFS40 HAS 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES BTWN 1340 AND
1345 AND THE OPERATIONAL MOS MIN TEMPS HAVE BEEN THE LOWER OUTLIER
AS COMPARED WITH THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ARE FAIRLY CLOSE.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND, HAVE OPTED TO DROP THE FREEZE WATCH AND WITH SOME
SLIGHT WIND, ONLY GO PATCHY FROST WHERE TEMPS GO AT OR BELOW 37
DEGREES MAINLY IN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. NO FROST ADVISORY OR
WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC, THE WINDS BECOME EAST AND THE AIR MODIFIES OVER
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER
SUNDAY AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLEARING MONDAY EVENING. ONLY A FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY DUE TO A LOW LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH MOVING WEST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. OTHER THAN THAT, DRY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well Defined East Breeze this morning

[HURAKAN]

Not even close to the 40s this morning, 53ºF was the low. This cold weather forecast went from burr to bust!

[jinftl]

As one would expect as we approach March, the upcoming front is going to be weak...not a huge temperature impact in south florida. Actually, it is forecast in the NWS Discussion below to stall and fade out around Lake O. Low temps the next few nights will be in the high 50's to low 60's closer to the coast....within a degree or 2 of normal (avg low in Miami for late Feb is 62).

But it will set the stage for a great week (and upcoming weekend) ahead as temps continue to moderate...and of course no rain. Not even a mention of rain for the next week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
631 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2009

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH TO N-CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A COLD FNT
CURRENTLY ACROSS FLORIDA PANHANDLE SEWD TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT
AND TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BY MON MORNING. A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL AREA STILL TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THIS WILL
HELP TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA. AS MOST OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT TROUGH IS TRANSFERED NEWD, THE FRNT
WILL LOSE STEAM AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF LAKE OKEE AND BECOME DIFFUSE.
HOWEVER, A STRONG HIGH PRESS RIDGE BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL RESULT
IN SFC WINDS SHIFTING TO N-NE BY TONIGHT AND TO EAST BY TUE MORNING.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LVL WL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SMALL PATCHES OF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED WESTWARD NOW
AND THEN BY A MOSTLY NE/E LOW LVL FLOW. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH BOTH MINS AND MAX TEMPS CLIMBING TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES.


NWS Forecast for: Miami FL
Issued by: National Weather Service Miami - South Florida
Last Update: 7:53 am EST Feb 22, 2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 63.
Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.
Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61.
Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 77.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 63.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 66.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... TextType=1

[Ed Mahmoud]

The Euro I, as a non-paying amateur, can get off the PSU web site, doesn't show precip, and has fairly poor display resolution.


But if I didn't know better, I'd say freezing/frozen precip in the Northeastern Panhandle, even JAX, might be in the cards in less than a week.

It would be March coming in like a lion.

Hotlink image, good for 23 hours or so, then it'll change...

[HURRICANELONNY]

I always get a kick out of the morning run. By afternoon the NWS will probably say, "seasonal temps in the long range". Like the morning run never existed.

Long term...Sunday through Tuesday...latest GFS run indicates a
more vigorous short wave trough and therefore stronger surface cold
fnt than previously indicated. The model now moves the front
rapidly across South Florida Sunday afternoon and evening, and
although precipitation seems to be somewhat less, it shows a
stronger cold air advection with 850-1000 mb values ranging from
1330 vicinity of the lake to 1345 mia. This will translate in much
lower temperatures than previously expected. If successive runs confirm
this...we could see temperatures a good 5 to 10 degrees (some areas even
more) below normal by the early part of next week. Of course, this
is still far in the future, so will rather proceed cautiously and
not lower temperatures drastically just yet. Surface ridge behind this front
will rapidly move south and then east over the western Atlantic by
the middle of the week with temperatures warming up rapidly as the low
level flow once again turn east.

[boca]

I always get a kick out of the morning run. By afternoon the NWS will probably say, "seasonal temps in the long range". Like the morning run never existed.

Long term...Sunday through Tuesday...latest GFS run indicates a
more vigorous short wave trough and therefore stronger surface cold
fnt than previously indicated. The model now moves the front
rapidly across South Florida Sunday afternoon and evening, and
although precipitation seems to be somewhat less, it shows a
stronger cold air advection with 850-1000 mb values ranging from
1330 vicinity of the lake to 1345 mia. This will translate in much
lower temperatures than previously expected. If successive runs confirm
this...we could see temperatures a good 5 to 10 degrees (some areas even
more) below normal by the early part of next week. Of course, this
is still far in the future, so will rather proceed cautiously and
not lower temperatures drastically just yet. Surface ridge behind this front
will rapidly move south and then east over the western Atlantic by
the middle of the week with temperatures warming up rapidly as the low
level flow once again turn east.

Totally agree with you.On the afternnon run that shortwave will probably be weaker and the front will stall out over Northern Florida and the upper ridge will move north from the Caribbean and thus we have our mid 80's.This is not a forecast but a trend over this season after the models predict a major storm they keep on backing off on each successive run.

[jinftl]

Good call....cooldown sounding much less impressive in the afternoon discussion...went from "THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MUCH LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED" and talk of temps 5-10+ deg below normal from this morning's Discussion to "BRIEF SHOT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SOME RENEWED DRIER AIR" in this pm's Discussion.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
219 PM EST WED FEB 25 2009

.DISCUSSION..

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH TOWARDS THE
REGION WITH ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND SOME RENEWED DRIER AIR. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE PSBL FOR
INTERIOR AREAS...WITH 50S ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS AND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S REGION WIDE AT LEAST FOR A DAY OR SO.

Totally agree with you.On the afternnon run that shortwave will probably be weaker and the front will stall out over Northern Florida and the upper ridge will move north from the Caribbean and thus we have our mid 80's.This is not a forecast but a trend over this season after the models predict a major storm they keep on backing off on each successive run.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Yep. It's like why even talk about it unless there are consecutive runs. It never pans out. Especially the GFS.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I ate my words. it's back. 40's coastal. March coming in like a lion. Temp that is. Now if we could only get some rain.

[boca]

I ate my words. it's back. 40's coastal. March coming in like a lion. Temp that is. Now if we could only get some rain.

Not so fast grasshopper the Afternnon shift will probably back off on this senario just like they did yesterday. It all depends on the 12z GFS if it keeps the shortwave strong or it stays weak and gets sheared apart, also how far south will the trough dig.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Probably right boca. But it's been a nice cool winter. I say 53 in Hollywood Mon. morning.

[Tampa_God]

I'm tired of the cold. Bring in the high humidity and burning 90+ degree weather please!

[JonathanBelles]

Drought Outlook: Severe drought upgraded over the coastal half of SEFL including Miami. Moderate drought over the remainder of SEFL and over almost all of the Tampa Bay Area. Dry conditions persist and intensify over most of the rest of the state.

SVR WX outlook. Day 3 (this weekend) SLGT Risk for all of N and C FL. For right now, i dont see any severe risk outside of the panhandle. Gusty weather, rain (possibly), and a cool down will inhabit the front.

[HURAKAN]

"THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS CONTROLLED THE AREA'S WEATHER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS MOVING IN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK."