Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

Here it comes!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST THU MAR 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TIP OF THE
HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE WILL INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE
ON CLOUD COVERAGE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO. AT THIS MOMENT THE RADAR IS SHOWING SHOWER FREE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WHERE LIGHT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE MOVE
ON SHORE.

ALL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
INCREASING THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THIS
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BETWEEN SATURDAY
TO SUNDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND JET DYNAMICS
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON FRIDAY
WHEN SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE. A MODERATE SWELL IN
COMBINATION WITH INCREASING WINDS WILL GENERATE CONFUSE MARINE
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.
THE SCA CONDITIONS DURATION WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF ARRIVAL
AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT.

[tropicana]

Record Dry February 2010

Piarco International Airport, (Central) Trinidad 2.1mm (old record Feb 1960 4.9mm)

In the western part of the island, Maraval near to Port of Spain received just 0.5mm all month.

The last measurable rainfall was back on February 3 (to the time of this writing on Mar 4)
Additionally, intense heat has been the order of the day on the southern island.

Highs and Lows for Trinidad in February 2010
1st 32.0C/ 23.9C 90/75 trace
2nd 30.6C/ 23.1C 87/73 0.4mm
3rd 30.6C/23.0C 87/73 1.7mm
4th 31.8C/22.7C 89/73 trace
5th 31.2C/24.6C 88/77 trace

6th 32.2C/20.8C 90/69 trace
7th 33.1/20.5C 91/69
8th 32.9/23.2 91/73 trace
9th 31.9/23.6 90/74
10th 32.7/23.3 91/73

11th 33.0/21.8 91/ 72
12th 33.0/22.0 91/72
13th 32.7/22.3 91/72
14th 33.2/22.1 92/72
15th 32.9/20.7 91/69

16th 33.5/22.1 92/72
17th 33.7/21.1 93/70
18th 33.7/22.1 93/72
19th 32.6/22.9 91/73
20th 33.4/22.3 92/72
21st 33.1/21.1 92/70
22nd 32.3/24.1 90/76
23rd 33.7/24.7 93/77
24th 35.7/24.6 96/77 **new record high*
25th 36.3/25.0 97/77 **new record high*

26th 34.9/23.9 95/75
27th 34.5/23.1 95/73
28th 34.2/24.7 94/77


March 2010

1st 34.2/24.3 94/76
2nd 34.5/23.7 95/75
3rd 34.3/24.5 94/76
4th 34.6/25.2 95/77

[Macrocane]

That's bad! with those high temps and no rain and it seems that there won't be any big relief until the first waves come out from the coast of Africa.

[cycloneye]

I have not realized that the dry spell is very big in area covering all of the Lesser Antilles from top to bottom.Hopefully,the rainy season comming soon ends this.

[Gustywind]

Record Dry February 2010

Piarco International Airport, (Central) Trinidad 2.1mm (old record Feb 1960 4.9mm)

In the western part of the island, Maraval near to Port of Spain received just 0.5mm all month.

The last measurable rainfall was back on February 3 (to the time of this writing on Mar 4)
Additionally, intense heat has been the order of the day on the southern island.

Highs and Lows for Trinidad in February 2010
1st 32.0C/ 23.9C 90/75 trace
2nd 30.6C/ 23.1C 87/73 0.4mm
3rd 30.6C/23.0C 87/73 1.7mm
4th 31.8C/22.7C 89/73 trace
5th 31.2C/24.6C 88/77 trace

6th 32.2C/20.8C 90/69 trace
7th 33.1/20.5C 91/69
8th 32.9/23.2 91/73 trace
9th 31.9/23.6 90/74
10th 32.7/23.3 91/73

11th 33.0/21.8 91/ 72
12th 33.0/22.0 91/72
13th 32.7/22.3 91/72
14th 33.2/22.1 92/72
15th 32.9/20.7 91/69

16th 33.5/22.1 92/72
17th 33.7/21.1 93/70
18th 33.7/22.1 93/72
19th 32.6/22.9 91/73
20th 33.4/22.3 92/72
21st 33.1/21.1 92/70
22nd 32.3/24.1 90/76
23rd 33.7/24.7 93/77
24th 35.7/24.6 96/77 **new record high*
25th 36.3/25.0 97/77 **new record high*

26th 34.9/23.9 95/75
27th 34.5/23.1 95/73
28th 34.2/24.7 94/77


March 2010

1st 34.2/24.3 94/76
2nd 34.5/23.7 95/75
3rd 34.3/24.5 94/76
4th 34.6/25.2 95/77

that's awfull too in the southern Windwards islands! Cycloneye let's hope that this front could really bring some water much needed here, that seems unrealistic under the Tropics since a month and a couple of days...

[Gustywind]

...And 2.2mm at Basse-Terre!!!!...Record of drought. Since december 20th 2009 ,only 40mmm (that's to say in 71 days, more than 2 months)...and ths volcanic ash is always present over the leaves....

What HUC? 2.2 mm it's a joke? Thanks for these numbers, i'm amazed too, pretty...is an euphemisma!

To HUC and Gustywind,if GFS verifies,it would be some good news for Guadeloupe as it shows the front zagging southward and reaching that beautiful island with some rain.Hopefully that is the case and the dry spell aliviates some.

Hope hope hope in this amazing drought, thanks Cycloneye for you wink, your optimism and to keep us informed, we continue to appreciate sincerely!

[cycloneye]

Updated discussion by NWS San Juan

Apart from what is expected this weekend with the front,it was another hot day here.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1026 PM AST THU MAR 4 2010

.UPDATE...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE WEST ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO FLATTEN/WEAKEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND SHIFT
FURTHER EAST. A FRONTAL SHEAR LINE AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF MOISTURE...
LEFT BEHIND BY THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT (SUGGESTED BY ROPE CLOUD
VISIBLE ON EARLIER SATELLITE IMAGERY) NOW JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
LOCAL REGION THIS EVENING... WILL BE GRADUALLY PUSHED SOUTHWARDS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL
THEN LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE SLOWLY DISSIPATING. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION OVER NEXT FEW
DAYS AS TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DEBRIS ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE LIFTED ACROSS THE REGION WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON FRIDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...STILL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...AS THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE AND RIPE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE ISLANDS. NO CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST FOR
NOW WHICH HAD REASONABLE AMOUNT OF WX AND POPS FOR WEEKEND...BUT
WILL CONTINUE FINE TUNE AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
DEFINITELY BE A LOT COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
THE MONA CHANNEL EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH 24 HOURS. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NW THEN NORTH ALONG NORTHERN SITES...AS SHRA HITS
TJBQ AND PERHAPS TJSJ AROUND 05/18Z. SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS FOR SOME
TSRA OVER TJBQ...WITH +SHRA BTW 05/18-00Z. BEFORE THEN EXPECT MVFR
CIGS AT TJBQ THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME BREAKS BTW 12-18Z...
BUT GENERALLY MVFR. SOUTHERN PR AND ALL USVI SITES TO REMAIN VFR NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD HOT DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 92 DEGREES WAS SET AT THE
LUIS MUNOZ MARIN AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN/P.R. TODAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD
RECORD OF 91 DEGREES PREVIOUSLY SET IN 1978.

THE SAN JUAN/P.R. CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW (FRI MARCH 5 2010)
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 83 90 1978
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 71 62 1957

[Gustywind]

After quake "records "we have high temperatures records in the Carib islands... and we're only in March of this year, woww! Hey hey pretty hot in PR Luis.

[Macrocane]

I find interesting that you say you're only in March, I guess that means that March is not the warmest month, I thought that the temperatures were lower in the rainy season than on the dry season. Here in Central America the dry season runs from November to April and sees both the coolest and the warmest temps, the coolest in January and December and the warmest in March and April then on the rainy season we experience cooler temps than March and April but warmer than December or January.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Today is when the front will start to affect Puerto Rico and the Virgin islands with a wet weekend and maybe the first part of next week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST FRI MAR 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...POLAR TROUGH OVR THE ERN U.S./WRN ATLC WILL BRING A
CDFNT INTO AREA LATER TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF PR SAT WHERE IT
WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS OVR LOCAL ATLC WATERS WILL
SLOWLY WORK EWD THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHEARLINE AND A CDFNT SINK
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. MODELS SHOW ACTUAL FROPA AT SJU AROUND 03Z
TONIGHT. EXPECT A RAPID INCREASE IN SHOWERS TONIGHT NORTH OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE NORTH. AS POLAR
TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WRN ATLC MODELS SHOW A STRONG S/W
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100+KT JET STREAK DIVING DOWN AND GRAZING PR
SUN LEADING TO STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR BETWEEN SAT EVENING AND SUN. EVEN WITH THE
ANTECEDENT DRY CONDIITIONS FLASH FLOODING NOT JUST LOCALIZED URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM IS LIKELY BUT FEEL THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL SAT
NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST AND A LITTLE TOO SOON TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH ATTM BUT WILL HAVE STRONG WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OTLK
THIS MORNING TO HIGHLIGHT THIS EVENT. DEFINITELY THE BEST FRONT
THAT WE`VE HAD ALL WINTER SINCE THE CHRISTMAS EVE 2009 EVENT.
FLOODING THIS TIME COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF SFC/UPPER LVL FEATURES. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
STATIONARY FRONTS THE AREAS THAT GET AFFECTED THE MOST BY FLOODING
ARE NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL FROM MANATI EAST TO FAJARDO.

TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA SUN NIGHT BUT FRONT
WILL LINGER SOUTH UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GFS TRIES TO LIFT THE FRONT BACK
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA WED OR THU OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER DONT HAVE
MUCH CONFIDENCE ON THIS AND NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL BE LEFT OF THIS
FRONT BY THEN BUT LOOK FOR LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERY WX.

&&

.AVIATION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER MONA CHANNEL EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY
SLOWLY THROUGH 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW THEN NORTH ALONG
NORTHERN SITES AS SHRA HITS TJBQ AND PERHAPS TJSJ AROUND 18Z. EXPECT
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AT TJBQ WITH SOME BREAKS 12-18Z...SOUTHERN PR
AND ALL USVI SITES TO REMAIN VFR NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...NW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
GUIDANCE INDICATING A DECREASING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON AND
BUILDING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
THROUGH SUN.

[cycloneye]

This advisory is the first of many watches and warnings that for sure will be up this weekend.

ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
708 AM AST FRI MAR 5 2010

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-061000-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
708 AM AST FRI MAR 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO SATURDAY WHERE IT WILL LINGER
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG UPPER
AIR DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GRAZE PUERTO RICO SUNDAY. COMPUTER
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PREDICTING A PERIOD OF ORGANIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THAT COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. THE AREAS AT GREATEST RISK OF EXPERIENCING
FLOODING ARE NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL FROM MANATI EAST TO
FAJARDO. A FLASH FLOOD MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

$$

[cycloneye]

High Surf Advisory in effect until 6 AM AST Sunday

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
815 AM AST FRI MAR 5 2010

...LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS IMPACTING THE NORTH FACING
COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...

PRZ008-010-060300-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SU.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-100307T1000Z/
NORTHWEST-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-
815 AM AST FRI MAR 5 2010

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST SUNDAY...

LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELLS FROM A COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE MONA
CHANNEL WILL AFFECT THE NORTH FACING COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THESE
SWELLS WILL PRODUCE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 12 FEET ALONG THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST FACING REEFS...BEACHES AND SHOALS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW OUTWARD
FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO
NOT PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR BEARINGS RELATIVE
TO THE BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU WILL EVENTUALLY
LEAVE THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM
TO SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS ARE URGED
TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE BREAKING
WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF ALL SIZES
INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND STAY
OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 0.9 FT AT 12:23 PM AST FRIDAY

STAY TUNED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN
JUAN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[Macrocane]

Hi! The northerly winds continue in El Salvador and actually are stronger today than yesterday, even when the cold front has moved away from the region the high pressure and the cool air are still affecting us, as I've said before March is one of the warmest months but it seems that at least this week we've enjoyed temperatures a little cooler than normal. The minimum temperature this morning in San Salvador was again 18 °C (64.4 °F) but the lowest in the country was lower than yesterday's lowest, it was registered in Las Pilas (in the northern mountains of El Salvador) 8.2 °C (46.8 °F).

[msbee]

hi everyone
we still have hazy skies here and I still have burning eyes.
is there any update on what is causing this?? is it still wildfires in Venezuela?
the Saharan dust layer doesn't look too thick this morning. Our met office says though that hazy conditions will persist throughout this forecast period, due to Saharan dust lingering across the region.



It is VERY hot here. There is very little wind. We have the big Heineken Regatta here this weekend.. over 250 boats for 3 days of sailing....and no wind..
you can see the boats just sitting out there and not moving much at all..

[Macrocane]

The preliminary climate outlook for the March-August period was issued a couple of days ago by the SNET, and it has some bad news for El Salvador as it says that the rainy season will suffer a delay and will be irregular because of El Niño, it always happen in the years when El Niño ends, it happened in 2007, 2003 and 1998 and 1995.

1992 and 1995 have been mentioned as anolg years for El Salvador. According to the outlook:

-In March the precipitation will be normal or below normal, the average is 14 mm or 0.55 inches.
-In April 88% above average rainfall is expected in the northwestern part of the country but 67% below average in the coast. The average is 39 mm (1.54 inches) in the northwest and 30 mm (1.18 inches) the coast.
-In May (when the rainy season begins) dry conditions are expected, they say that in the eastern coast could receive only 21 mm (0.83 inches) when the average is 208 mm (8.19 inches).
- In the May-June-July period the average is 657 mm (25 .87 inches) but this year could see 30% less rain in that period.
- The rainy season will begin 2 weeks later than normal. Between June 5 and June 14 in the coast and the eastern third of the country and between May 21 and May 30 in the rest of the country.
- They say that an extreme event of 100 mm (3.9 inches) in 24 hours can't be ruled out and they mentioned the November 7 event last year that left 200 dead. By the way we call those events "Temporales" in other pasrts of the world it can mean something different.
- The consequences of the below average rainfall will be agricultural damage, above average temperatures, a higher risk of wildfires and a possible increase in the insects like mosquitoes and flies that can spread diseases.

An updated outlook will be issued in late April.

In the pictures you can see the expected rainfall scenarios. The red color is below average rainfall, the green is normal and the blue means above average. The first one is for April, second one is for May and the third one is for the May-Jul period.

[HUC]

It appears now that saharian dust is an all year event ,and not as i knew an event begining around April-May ??? ...question for specialists!!!!

[cycloneye]

Barbara,as the winds continue to blow from the south which means if there are fires in Venezuela,the smoke will be transported northward.Lets see when the front arrives fully this weekend,the skies clear from that as the winds will veer to the north and northeast.

[msbee]

hi Luis
yes, we do still have those southerly winds..if we have any wind at all. very light.
currently from the south at 5 MPH

[cycloneye]

Spring Flood Outlook for Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

It looks like above normal precipitation during the Spring months.

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
235 PM AST FRI MAR 5 2010

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...

FOR THE SPRING OF 2010...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL
FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX WHERE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NORMAL.

MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE YEAR TO DATE ACROSS THE REGION
ARE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO...BETWEEN 101 AND 199
PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE HIGHEST VALUES WERE ALONG THE EXTREME NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO, WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE IN THE 188 TO 199
PERCENT OF NORMAL. WHILE THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAVE SEEN LESS
RAINFALL RELATIVE TO PUERTO RICO,THEIR NUMBERS REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL...AROUND 91 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

WITH THE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...NONE OF OUR REGIONS CURRENTLY HAVE ANY
DROUGHT DESIGNATIONS IN THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR.

BASED ON USGS NETWORK GAGES AT THE LOCAL RESERVOIRS AND LAKES...
A SAMPLE OF A FEW OF THE MAJOR RESERVOIRS ACROSS PUERTO RICO SHOW
THAT GENERALLY...LEVELS ARE WITHIN 2 TO 15 FEET OF NORMAL
OPERATIONAL LEVELS. LAGO PATILLAS IS CURRENTLY AT 220.50 FEET...
NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS 222 FEET. LAGO LOIZA IS CURRENTLY
133.49 FEET...NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS 132.00 FEET AND LAGO LA
PLATA IS CURRENTLY 169.01 FEET...NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS 155
FEET. OVERALL...A GOOD PERCENTAGE OF THE LAKES ARE ABOVE THEIR
OPERATIONAL LEVELS, WHICH IS NOT GENERALLY THE CASE AT THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR...SINCE THIS IS THE DRY SEASON.

BEING THAT THIS IS THE DRY SEASON FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...DRY SOILS IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH ARE TO BE EXPECTED, AND
GIVEN A NORMAL SPRING TRANSITIONAL PERIOD, THE SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS USUALLY REBOUND QUICKLY WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
RAINFALL. CURRENTLY,THE SOILS ARE NOT OVERLY DRY THROUGHOUT MOST
OF THE AREA WHICH IS BENEFICIAL IN THE CASE OF FIRE WEATHER,
AGRICULTURE AND GROUND WATER SUPPLIES.

STREAMFLOW MEASURED BY THE USGS GAGING NETWORK SHOWS MOST LOCATIONS
RUNNING AT FLOWS IN 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE. THIS CATEGORIZATION MAY
BE MISLEADING SINCE THE BASINS ARE RELATIVELY SMALL AND TROPICAL
RAINS ARE SO LADEN...THAT ANY CREDIBLE "RAIN MAKER" CAN HAVE AN
IMMEDIATE IMPACT TO THESE VALUES.

CLIMATOLOGICALLY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL. WHILE THE EXTENT AND INTENSITY
OF THIS RAINFALL WILL BEST DETERMINE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
ISLANDS...THE CURRENT ANTECEDENT FACTORS POINT TO AN ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

AS A RESULT OF THESE FACTORS...THE CURRENT FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX WHERE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
NORMAL.


HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU

THIS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST FRI MAR 5 2010

PRC001-013-017-039-051-054-073-091-101-137-141-143-145-052200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0031.100305T1856Z-100305T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CIALES PR-FLORIDA PR-JAYUYA PR-ADJUNTAS PR-MOROVIS PR-UTUADO PR-
VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-BARCELONETA PR-MANATI PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
TOA BAJA PR-ARECIBO PR-
256 PM AST FRI MAR 5 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...FLORIDA...JAYUYA...ADJUNTAS...MOROVIS...UTUADO...VEGA
ALTA...DORADO...BARCELONETA...MANATI...VEGA BAJA...TOA BAJA AND
ARECIBO

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 254 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER A
LINE FROM ADJUNTAS TOWARDS THE WESTERN SAN JUAN METRO AREA. THESE
SHOWERS ARE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT
THREE HOURS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.