Moderate Risk, NE, Sunday 6/19 & Monday 6/20

[AdamFirst]

Imply as in the impacts?

EXTREMELY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...LARGE HAIL
TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE
IN THESE AREAS.

[CrazyC83]

So, I know what a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch is but what does it imply? I mean, the probabilities on it are off the charts.

Destructive straight-line winds are highly likely or expected with the significant wind probabilities usually at 80% or higher, usually resulting in a large area of 80 mph or greater (locally higher possible). At the same time, the tornado threat has to remain low enough to prevent it from being a Tornado Watch (as with 524 which would be a PDS Severe as well if it weren't for the 60/20 tornado probs). Hail numbers aren't considered in the decision, even if hail probs were 95/95 it would not be an automatic PDS if winds were not an enormous threat.

PDS Tornado Watch usually comes when the significant tornado probabilities are 60% or higher. In some cases, they might issue it with 50% sig-tor probs if violent tornadoes are possible.

[CrazyC83]

Although the forecast is not nearly as big yet, this seems somewhat reminiscent of June 15-17, 1992.

[CrazyC83]

Farther east.

WWUS53 KGID 202229 RRA
SVSGID

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
529 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

NEC081-185-202245-
/O.CON.KGID.TO.W.0064.000000T0000Z-110620T2245Z/
HAMILTON NE-YORK NE-
529 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN YORK AND EAST
CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 526 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE HAMPTON
INTERCHANGE ON INTERSTATE 80.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
YORK...HAMPTON AND BRADSHAW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4071 9774 4077 9802 4105 9784 4096 9747
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 206DEG 24KT 4082 9790
HAIL 1.75IN

$$

PFANNKUCH

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1327
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0535 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK INTO NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525...

VALID 202235Z - 210000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525
CONTINUES.

SCATTERED DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY DRY LINE WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OF OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...PARTICULARLY NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA
FALLS. A 40-50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELD IS
ALLOWING FOR INITIATING STORMS TO PROPAGATE OFF THE DRY LINE...BUT
INHIBITION BENEATH LINGERING VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR IS
STILL ONLY SLOWLY WEAKENING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MERGING WITH THE DRY LINE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ENID OKLAHOMA
AREA...BUT STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING /CENTERED AROUND 700 MB/ IS
JUST BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST OF THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
REGION. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERTAKE THE DRY
LINE AND GRADUALLY PROGRESS INTO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
NOW AND 00-02Z. HOWEVER...IT MAY BE THAT STORMS REMAIN RATHER
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS UNTIL STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES IN THE 01-03Z
TIME FRAME. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 06/20/2011


ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 36159828 36629815 36989738 36879679 36699644 35749656
34409703 33679728 32859784 32159931 32270008 32839953
36159828

[CrazyC83]

WWUS53 KGID 202234
SVSGID

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
534 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

NEC081-185-202245-
/O.CON.KGID.TO.W.0064.000000T0000Z-110620T2245Z/
HAMILTON NE-YORK NE-
534 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN YORK AND EAST
CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 530 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HAMPTON...OR 17 MILES WEST OF YORK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
YORK...HAMPTON AND BRADSHAW.

RESIDENT IN AND NEAR HAMPTON TAKE COVER NOW!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

[Bunkertor]

Just saw it @ Texas Chaser. Big one.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1328
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0555 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 524...

VALID 202255Z - 210000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 524 CONTINUES.

PORTIONS OF WW 524 MAY NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED OR AN ADDITIONAL
WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL IA GIVEN
RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WARM FRONT IN W-CNTRL IA.

22Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED PRIMARY 991 MB CYCLONE OVER
S-CNTRL NEB WITH ARCING WARM FRONT ACROSS E-CNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL IA.
SMALL CB/S HAVE RECENTLY INITIATED INVOF THE WARM FRONT IN W-CNTRL
IA AS CIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. MODIFIED 18Z OAX RAOB SUGGESTS THIS
CORRIDOR IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AOA 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MODEST PER SLATER PROFILER...THEY WILL
STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF THE CNTRL PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
AID IN A TORNADO THREAT EXTENDING E OF THE CURRENT WW INTO CNTRL IA.

..GRAMS.. 06/20/2011


ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 41639495 42219544 42579535 42889491 42879436 42619358
42289307 41669269 41349273 41079307 41139410 41289486
41639495

[CrazyC83]

WFUS53 KGID 202300
TORGID
NEC081-121-143-185-202345-
/O.NEW.KGID.TO.W.0068.110620T2300Z-110620T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
600 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
NORTHEASTERN MERRICK COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
POLK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
NORTHWESTERN YORK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 558 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO 6 MILES
WEST OF BENEDICT...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF YORK. DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BENEDICT...POLK...STROMSBURG...OSCEOLA...SHELBY AND SILVER CREEK.

THIS WARNING REPLACES ALL PREVIOUS TORNADO WARNINGS FOR THE
YORK...POLK AND HAMILTON COUNTY AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. AS A LAST
RESORT...EITHER PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT...OR ABANDON YOUR
VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4087 9764 4096 9791 4131 9775 4131 9770
4140 9770 4140 9760 4134 9759 4137 9751
4137 9747 4139 9740 4139 9736 4126 9736
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 206DEG 36KT 4101 9771
HAIL 1.50IN

$$

PFANNKUCH

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1329
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB...NRN/ERN KS...WRN IA...SERN SD

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 523...524...

VALID 202317Z - 210015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 523...524...CONTINUES.

NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE FORTHCOMING TO REPLACE PARTS OF WW 523/524 AND
TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SERN SD/NWRN IA.

GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CNTRL/E-CNTRL NEB N/E OF PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR GRI...EVOLVING
E/NEWD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS /SAMPLED BY
OMAHA VWP/ HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO 0-1 KM SRH AOA 200 M2/S2 AMIDST A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
AND POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

FARTHER SW...TSTM CLUSTER HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY INVOF PIVOT
POINT OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER NWRN KS. TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH HERE AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EWD.

STRONG LINEAR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE N/S-ORIENTED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND S/SWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW HAVE RESULTED IN VIGOROUS UPSCALE
GROWTH AND INCIPIENT QLCS FORMATION ACROSS PORTIONS CNTRL/ERN KS. AS
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX SHIFTS E/NEWD THIS EVENING AND SURFACE COLD POOL
STRENGTHENS...EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWING STRUCTURES APPEAR LIKELY TO
DEVELOP...ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS ERN KS/FAR
SERN NEB TOWARDS THE MO RIVER VALLEY.

..GRAMS.. 06/20/2011


ATTN...WFO...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...
DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 39040003 39020044 39200075 40040076 40850029 42239922
42909824 43079685 42729615 40959549 39169529 37029567
36959777 38309737 39999759 40689816 40649881 39040003

[CrazyC83]

New Tornado Watch 526 coming out.

[CrazyC83]

Tornado probs are 90/50 - some forecasters may have considered PDS here as well.

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 526
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
655 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 655 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SHENANDOAH IOWA TO 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF MITCHELL SOUTH DAKOTA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 523...WW 524...WW 525...

DISCUSSION...ARC OF SUPERCELLS EXTENDING FROM NEAR ONL TO W OF OLU
TO W OF BIE EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NNE/NE LATER THIS EVE AS
WRN/CNTRL KS VORT LOBE ASSUMES A MORE NEGATIVE TILT. OTHER STORMS
MAY CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG N/S INVERTED TROUGH IN SE SD. IN
ADDITION...WDLY SCTD STORMS MAY FORM LATER THIS EVE NEAR WEAK WARM
FRONT IN WRN/CNTRL IA. THE MAIN ARC OF STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A
BROKEN SQLN/QLCS WITH TIME...BUT STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY SUGGEST A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND FROM EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.
TORNADOES ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ACTIVITY ALONG INVERTED
TROUGH...AND WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF SQLN IN IA.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.


...CORFIDI

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1330
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S-CNTRL NEB...NWRN/N-CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 523...

VALID 210021Z - 210045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 523 CONTINUES.

WITH A TORNADO/SEVERE HAIL THREAT LIKELY PERSISTING BEYOND 01Z
SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF WW 523...A REPLACEMENT WW OR LOCAL TEMPORAL
EXTENSION WILL BE COORDINATED SHORTLY.

STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS PERSIST ALONG THE NWRN KS/SWRN NEB BORDER
WITHIN THE NRN PIVOT POINT OF MID-LEVEL VORT MAX IN W-CNTRL KS. AS
THIS VORT CENTER SHIFTS EWD AND WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...A LOCALIZED AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 03-04Z.

..GRAMS.. 06/21/2011


ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON 39430039 39800062 40340029 40619985 40649937 40589919
40389906 40149904 39779945 39569981 39430039

[CrazyC83]

New Tornado Watch 527 coming out. Will replace PDS Tornado Watch 523.

[CrazyC83]

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 527
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
740 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 740 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF KEARNEY
NEBRASKA TO 70 MILES SOUTH OF HASTINGS NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 524...WW 525...WW 526...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE
HAIL MAY PERSIST IN NE QUADRANT OF STRONG UPR VORT NOW NEAR HLC.
DEVELOPMENT MAY FOCUS ALONG STNRY BOUNDARY EXTENDING WSW/ENE ACROSS
S CNTRL NEB...BUT ALSO FARTHER E IN ZONE OF GREATER LOW LVL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE VORT OVER N CNTRL
KS. STORM MOTION MAY BE ERRATIC GIVEN LARGE SPATIAL VARIATION OF
WIND FIELD NEAR VORT...AND GIVEN PRESENCE OF LOW LVL BOUNDARIES THAT
WILL FORCE PROPAGATION ALONG SAME.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20015.


...CORFIDI

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1331
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS/NEB...WRN MO/IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 524...526...

VALID 210046Z - 210145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 524...526...CONTINUES.

NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BETWEEN 01-02Z TO INCLUDE
AREAS E OF WW 524/S OF WW 526 IN ERN KS/WRN MO.

NEARLY 400 MI LONG QLCS EXTENDS FROM SERN NEB TO N-CNTRL OK. NEB/KS
PORTION OF THE LINE HAS RECENTLY ACCELERATED EWD AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT...LIKELY A RESULT OF STRENGTHENING COLD POOL AND OVERSPREADING
MID-LEVEL DCVA. 00Z OAX/TOP RAOBS SAMPLE THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE QLCS...ALONG WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SLY FLOW WHICH WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR EWD MAINTENANCE
OF THE QLCS. AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE EVENING...EMBEDDED
BOWING SEGMENTS /MOST LIKELY ON THE NRN PORTION OF THE QLCS/ WILL
YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

..GRAMS.. 06/21/2011


ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 37059684 37999650 39629626 41069652 41629673 42019644
42209599 42229527 42029440 40609384 39789377 38449406
36989478 37059684

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1332
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK INTO NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525...

VALID 210056Z - 210230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525
CONTINUES.

TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ADDITIONAL WW EAST OF WW 525.

THE DRY LINE ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA IS ACTUALLY RETREATING WESTWARD...BUT SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THAT EARLIER DEVELOPED OFF OF IT CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD...TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT
WORTH METROPLEX INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH 01-03Z...AS INHIBITION INCREASES FOR WARM
SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS.

DEEPENING/INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALONG
THE DRY LINE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...IN THE VICINITY OF
OKLAHOMA CITY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY INTO SUPERCELLS BETWEEN
NOW AND 02-03Z...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THE MORE WIDESPREAD STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MERGE WITH THE
DRY LINE...PROBABLY NEAR/EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN 02-04Z.

THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
INITIALLY...BUT POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AN
INCREASING CONCERN AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES THIS EVENING.

..KERR.. 06/21/2011


ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 32799946 33499932 34399857 35519796 36289756 36969684
36839581 35489620 33769715 32969803 32649872 32799946

[CrazyC83]

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 528
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
835 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN KANSAS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 835 PM UNTIL
300 AM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
ISOLATED INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
CHILLICOTHE MISSOURI TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 524. WATCH NUMBER 524 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
835 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 525...WW 526...WW 527...

DISCUSSION...BROKEN SQLN/QLCS IN ERN KS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ENE
THROUGH LATE EVE AS 50 KT 700 MB SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH CNTRL KS
UPR VORT PIVOTS NEWD INTO LOW LVL MOIST AXIS. INCREASING LOW TO MID
LVL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE...AND NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING
OF SSWLY LLJ...SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED LOW LVL CIRCULATIONS
AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH WIND AND SVR
HAIL...DESPITE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP WIND PROFILES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.


...CORFIDI

[Dave]

PALO PINTO TX-
932 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN PALO PINTO COUNTY...

AT 931 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
MONITORING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO. STORM SPOTTERS CONTINUE TO REPORT A LARGE ROTATING WALL
CLOUD WITH THIS STORM. ANOTHER TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY MOMENT. THIS
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

THE TORNADIC CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR...
5 MILES NORTH OF MINERAL WELLS AROUND 940 PM CDT...

[Dave]

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
937 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY IN NORTHWEST IOWA...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

* AT 937 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF KINGSLEY...OR 10
MILES SOUTH OF LE MARS...AND MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
LE MARS AROUND 945 PM CDT...
REMSEN AROUND 955 PM CDT...

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE OYENS.