STORM2K

Fortunately we all know that models beyond 3-5 days are usually off. That would be a nice cool down though, if it happens.

dhweather wrote:Fortunately we all know that models beyond 3-5 days are usually off. That would be a nice cool down though, if it happens.

Unless, according to Wxman57, they are forecasting hot temperatures. Then they are spot on.

Tireman4 wrote:

dhweather wrote:Fortunately we all know that models beyond 3-5 days are usually off. That would be a nice cool down though, if it happens.

Unless, according to Wxman57, they are forecasting hot temperatures. Then they are spot on.

LOL - yeah, if it were April and swinging up to the 90's, he would buy it 14-20 days out.

Ntxw wrote:As in my post earlier today, the EURO and other longterm guidance looks a little better today. Still within the 7 day period not much but 7-10 there is a massing (seasonal shift) of colder air pooling in NA (Hello there MR -EPO). Some kind of front will likely make it down here next week. With 93E in the EPAC getting it's act together (should be in the Baja vicinity) we have a tropical connection. Will need to wait a few more days to see if the two features interact and fine tune.

I see the buzz has picked up from other guidance. It's there, where it will it go? I'm pretty sure it will cool down, there will be snow in the front range of the Rockies. Norbert will be in the picture. Just got to get past the next 5 days.

Air mass is coming from north of Alaska, so in the sense of the word it should be a true front and not just a wind shift. Can't post the EURO but I sure can post the GFS, courtesy WSI energy twitter.

So today, I was coming through Uvalde at around 2:30PM. Just before getting into town, coming down HWY 55 from Camp Wood, I ran into a driving rain and high winds. Forced me to drop to 50mph. Wipers on full blast. Then when I got on 83 in Uvalde, it was still pouring, some intersections were flooded near 4" deep, gulleys full and overflowing preventing driving in the right lane due to constant hydroplaning. The Leon River was a torrent, couple of feet near to being out of its banks. So when I get home, I check NOAA to see how much rain Uvalde got, and they show .27" falling around that time, and the total storm visual on radar showed 1/2". No way. Both are wrong. I'm guessing a minimum 2" fell in a short time to produce the flooding of that magnitude.

How could NOAA info be so patently wrong? Would it be their fault or whoever is doing the reporting out of Uvalde? Still, how could the visual storm total radar scan be that far off?

I depend on their accuracy.

Wren wrote:So today, I was coming through Uvalde at around 2:30PM. Just before getting into town, coming down HWY 55 from Camp Wood, I ran into a driving rain and high winds. Forced me to drop to 50mph. Wipers on full blast. Then when I got on 83 in Uvalde, it was still pouring, some intersections were flooded near 4" deep, gulleys full and overflowing preventing driving in the right lane due to constant hydroplaning. The Leon River was a torrent, couple of feet near to being out of its banks. So when I get home, I check NOAA to see how much rain Uvalde got, and they show .27" falling around that time, and the total storm visual on radar showed 1/2". No way. Both are wrong. I'm guessing a minimum 2" fell in a short time to produce the flooding of that magnitude.

How could NOAA info be so patently wrong? Would it be their fault or whoever is doing the reporting out of Uvalde? Still, how could the visual storm total radar scan be that far off?

I depend on their accuracy.

You were dealing with Dolly-fueled tropical showers in that area and those are notorious for not being gauged well on radar in terms of intensity. I've seen that happen many times and sometimes even the NWS will issue statements indicating that ground truth reports show that Doppler estimates are off.

Snippet out of FW. EURO will not back off, it's just a matter of details. Early guess from me, front blasts through drops temps to 70s and morning lows 50s/60s. That sure is one deep anomalous low pressure system at the center of North America in the northern plains. With such a tight bundle, one has to wonder if at the lower levels the air mass is even cooler than.


***
WE ARE STILL WATCHING THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK FOR A POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT THAT WOULD
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DEVELOP A STRONG UPPER LEVEL VORTEX OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR
SOUTHERN CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AS A
RESPONSE...TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS RESULTS IN WEAKENING THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAN THE GFS.
HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS DO BRING A FRONT INTO THE REGION BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY AS THIS
COULD BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT FRONT OF THE FALL METEOROLOGICAL
SEASON.

Interesting snippet from the EWX this morning:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
627 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2014

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DRYING AND SLIGHT WARMING TREND SATURDAY. DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF ECMWF AND GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH INDICATING A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE BULLISH IN QPF OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA SUNDAY WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED...HOWEVER 00Z GFS IS TRENDING THAT WAY AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE WITH BROAD BRUSH OF 20 POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA (EXCEPT SOUTHWEST ZONES) FOR SUNDAY. THE FRONT WASHES OUT BY MONDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL DRYING OCCURRING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND AS WELL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 100 AGAIN IN SOME AREAS. A QUICK PEAK BEYOND THE 7 DAY... POTENTIALLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SENDING POTENTIALLY STRONGER FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. TROPICAL TAP OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GULF COULD BE IN PLAY AS WELL. BUT CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES AT THIS TIME SO STAY TUNED.

We may soon see if our collective guesses were correct. With all the pieces of the puzzle in place one would predict an early cold front for the autumn season, one with a bit of "oomph". As Ntwx has pointed out, the EURO is sticking with this solution and GFS keeps wavering back and forth, which is one reason why the local WFOs aren't exactly jumping all over it.

In my strictly amateurish opinion I think the EURO solution plays out, given that (1) we still have the same synoptic set up regarding the NE Pacific and Greenland, (2) plenty of WPAC incentive for the storm track to buckle in North America, and (3) cool/cold air welling up in the continental interior. So, approaching the tree limb, this amateur* agrees with the EURO and says: "strong early fall front"...perhaps even before the "official" start of autumn.

*Oi! I've given the disclaimer twice. Heh.

You were dealing with Dolly-fueled tropical showers in that area and those are notorious for not being gauged well on radar in terms of intensity. I've seen that happen many times and sometimes even the NWS will issue statements indicating that ground truth reports show that Doppler estimates are off.

Thanks, Porta. Btw, I"m in the Oak Hill area too.

I know that the model run was 288 hours and it will likely change many times, but you guys on the coast need to not sleep on gulf, some models have been hinting at a storm in the western Gulf and if the 6z GFS didn't scare you even a bit then I don't know what will.

Another wave of scattered tropical downpours is currently moving northward across south and central Texas.

TheProfessor wrote:I know that the model run was 288 hours and it will likely change many times, but you guys on the coast need to not sleep on gulf, some models have been hinting at a storm in the western Gulf and if the 6z GFS didn't scare you even a bit then I don't know what will.

There is actually widespread longer range model support showing lower surface pressures in the western Gulf and Caribbean. We are into a period of probably 10-15 days of a decent risk of tropical cyclone development (or strong influence) near and dear to our state.

The GFS has spun up a lot of tropical phantoms this year, so I really wouldn't put too much stock into that.

dhweather wrote:The GFS has spun up a lot of tropical phantoms this year, so I really wouldn't put too much stock into that.

I'm not talking only about the GFS. Take a look at the Euro ensembles as well. Both the GFS and European show this. Also we have several pro mets on board who have commented in other forums about how the Gulf and the Caribbean are the places to watch in the next two weeks.

I dont trust the GFS depicting a strong storm in the gulf at something that doesnt yet exist. Strong suppressive kelvin wave isn't favorable. It's peak season now and look at the satellite images, basin is being squashed by sinking air. However with fronts coming down quick spinups can happen along these boundaries.

Ntxw wrote:I dont trust the GFS depicting a strong storm in the gulf at something that doesnt yet exist. Strong suppressive kelvin wave isn't favorable. It's peak season now and look at the satellite images, basin is being squashed by sinking air. However with fronts coming down quick spinups can happen along these boundaries.

I wouldn't focus on any specific GFS but the general signals. Also, as our friend srainhoutx mentions on the KHOU forum, there is some suggestion that a convectively coupled Kelvin wave along with favorable MJO would enhance what we are seeing in the GFS and Euro ensembles about generally lower surface pressures in the Western Gulf and Carribbean.

Portastorm wrote:

Ntxw wrote:I dont trust the GFS depicting a strong storm in the gulf at something that doesnt yet exist. Strong suppressive kelvin wave isn't favorable. It's peak season now and look at the satellite images, basin is being squashed by sinking air. However with fronts coming down quick spinups can happen along these boundaries.

I wouldn't focus on any specific GFS but the general signals. Also, as our friend srainhoutx mentions on the KHOU forum, there is some suggestion that a convectively coupled Kelvin wave along with favorable MJO would enhance what we are seeing in the GFS and Euro ensembles about generally lower surface pressures in the Western Gulf and Carribbean.

We are currently in the strongest supressive kelvin wave of the Atlantic season and will persist for at least another week. Hints are showing another suppressive phase continuing. EPAC is where supression effects are less.

The models as a whole seem indecisive about where a storm forms (and where it goes) but I think a storm (maybe twins - EPAC/ATL) will develop from the trough over the Caribbean.

Oh who am I kidding? This is 2014, I'm positive an EPAC storm will result from it, it's just the Atlantic twin (and the cooperation of the trough that might affect its' path) that's up in the air.

Right, well, what about this.....one possible scenario is having the EURO front move through late next week and having tropical development in the western Gulf along the front's tail end. Badabing!