Major outbreak of Severe WX expected in the Southeast

[Ivanhater]

yep, we were under a tornado warning about an hour ago, gonna be a long night

[wxmann_91]

The storms in GA/AL/FL are mostly elevated. Give a few hours and the real action will begin near the Tri-state area (MO, IL, KY).

[Matt31388]

I'm ready for it...I live in the part of Eastern KY under the Moderate risk.

[Brent]

It's looking increasingly likely that the event will be delayed until the peak heating of the day for AL/GA, which if true, it could be even worse than expected now. Starting to look like tomorrow will be a red-letter day instead of late tonight/early tomorrow.

That is all.

[Brent]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1042 PM CST SUN JAN 1 2006

.UPDATE...
SORRY FOR THE RATHER LATE ISSUANCE THIS EVENING...BUT HAPPY NEW YEAR
TO ALL. THERE WAS QUITE A LOT TO DIGEST THIS EVENING WITH REGARD TO
THE DEVELOPING WEATHER SCENARIO FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA.

SEVERE WEATHER AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ARE THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE
SHORT TERM. WE ARE CURRENTLY IN A LULL...OR LACK OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...AS FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS EAST OF THE AREA AND
SQUASHED THE DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE WIREGRASS. WARM
FRONT HAS BEEN HARD PRESSED TO MOVE NORTHWARD...BUT LOW LEVEL JET
IS KICKING INTO MISSISSIPPI. MID 60 DEW POINTS WERE COMMON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF MS. VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG JET STRUCTURE ROTATING OUR WAY SHOULD HELP LIFT WARM FRON
NORTHWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFIES AND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES CUT INTO THE MID LEVEL CAP OVERNIGHT...THE STAGE WILL BE
SET FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AREAS WEST OF DOUBLE SPRINGS TO
TUSCALOOSA TO DEMOPOLIS WILL SEE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASE
AFTER 2AM. THIS THREAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND REACH AREAS NEAR
THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING THE ENTIRE SPECTRUM OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING
TORNADOES. BY 6AM...THE STORMS WILL BEGIN INTENSIFYING WITH THE
HEAT OF THE DAY...WITH A HEIGHTENED TORNADO RISK ALONG AND EAST OF
I-65. SOME OF THESE TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG DUE TO THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS.

THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM RE-DEVELOPMENT BY
AROUND NOON JUST WEST OF I-65. THE MAIN THREAT IF STORMS DEVELOP
WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THIS REGARD.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP RAPIDLY AT THE ONSET. CURRENT THINKING...SPC WILL MOVE THE MODERATE
RISK AREA WESTWARD FOR MONDAY.

UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...HOURLY
TEMPS AND WORDING.

[Brent]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW
PNS 20 WNW SEM 20 N HSV 20 ENE BNA 30 E BWG 25 SW LEX 25 ESE LEX 15
WNW JKL 15 SSW JKL 45 SSE LOZ 25 NNE TYS 15 SW TYS 40 E CHA 30 N ATL
35 SSW AHN 40 SSE AHN 40 SE AHN 40 N AGS 35 SE CLT 35 SW SOP 35 NNE
FLO 20 ENE FLO CHS 25 NNE SSI 20 NNE CTY 45 WSW CTY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE
BVE 40 NE BVE 35 E PIB 30 SSW CBM 20 ENE MKL 20 NW EVV 20 W IND 40
ENE MIE 15 NNE CMH PKB 35 E CRW 15 WNW BLF 15 NNW AVL 25 SW AVL 25 W
GSP SPA 35 E HKY 15 ENE DAN 20 NE AVC 40 WSW ORF 30 NW HSE 50 SSW
HSE ...CONT... 30 ESE SGJ 30 WSW PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 35 SSW OLM
50 S EUG 35 ESE MHS 40 NW RNO 20 N NFL 40 NNW P68 30 WNW U24 50 SE
U24 45 NW U17 40 ENE GCN 25 N PRC 35 N BLH 15 SE RAL 35 SSW OXR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S HUM 15 ESE JAN
10 NNE MEM 25 SSE POF 40 ENE VIH 25 N COU 20 NNW CDJ 10 SW SDA 35 E
OLU 20 W SUX 15 S OTG MKT 30 NNE VOK 35 WNW MBS 30 NE MTC ...CONT...
25 NW ERI 20 N DUJ 10 ENE AOO 15 ESE HGR 20 ESE BWI 25 SSW DOV 50
ESE SBY ...CONT... 45 NNE MLB 50 W FMY.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST
STATES...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS GULF COAST STATES...OH
VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS...

...AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE/TN AND OH VALLEYS/CAROLINAS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD FROM ERN KS ACROSS OK INTO EAST TX. AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY THIS MORNING...A 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL CONTINUE MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WITH
LOW TO MID 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE OH RIVER.
AN IMPRESSIVE SPLIT MID-LEVEL JET WILL NOSE NEWD INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING ENHANCING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. AS A RESULT...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH SEVERAL MCS
CLUSTERS DEVELOPING AND DRIFTING EWD FROM THE OH RIVER SWD TO ERN MS
AND AL. STORMS WILL ORGANIZE ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOIST AXIS AS A
DRY SLOT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL FORECASTS RAPIDLY STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES BY DAYBREAK JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
MIDDLE TN AND ERN AL. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING
SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE ONGOING EAST OF THE MOIST AXIS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE ERN GULF COAST STATES SHOULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED TORNADO
THREAT AS AN MCS DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LONG TRACK TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE
MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL AL...SWRN AND CNTRL GA AND ACROSS
THE FL PANHANDLE ESPECIALLY FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS FORECAST TO BE THE
STRONGEST.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD DURING THE DAY...NAM AND GFS
FORECASTS DEVELOP A CONVECTIVE LINE FROM THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS
INTO CNTRL GA AND SE AL. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EWD...WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND DEEP LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THE WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ENHANCED WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES
AS THE LINE ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE SC...GA AND NRN FL. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD EXPAND EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL SECTIONS
OF THE CAROLINAS...GA AND FL DURING THE EVENING GRADUALLY ALLOWING
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO DECREASE AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO
THE WRN ATLANTIC.

[Brent]

Bullseye.

[wxmann_91]

Much of the MDT has been trimmed off, and looks like windfields are looking unidirectional enough (at least looking from convective trends in GA) for lines rather than discrete. The convective junk across Georgia and S. Carolina should hold off the storms there for a good portion of the day. Good news overall, the tornado threat should be diminishing - unless storms can manage to develop in the heavily capped western Alabama and remain discrete. Stay alert though still!

[Skywatch_NC]

Special Weather Statement

Statement as of 4:30 AM EST on January 02, 2006

... Severe thunderstorms will threaten much of central North Carolina
this afternoon into tonight...

Damaging winds over 60 mph and isolated tornadoes are possible late
this afternoon through much of tonight. Large hail near an inch in
diameter may also occur.

The threat of severe weather will result from a vigorous storm
system that will move eastward from the mid Mississippi Valley today
and tonight. As it approaches... a warm front will move northward
into central North Carolina... bringing moist and unstable air.
Strengthening southwesterly winds in the mid levels of the
atmosphere combined with this low level moisture will produce a
threat for severe storms late this afternoon into this evening.

The greatest threat of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be
along and southeast of where the warm front is expected to settle
this afternoon... mainly southeast of a line from Albemarle to
Durham to Roanoke Rapids. However even in The Triad area... isolated
severe storms cannot be ruled out. The risk will be greatest between
4 PM this afternoon and 1 am tonight.

People across central North Carolina need to keep a close watch on
the latest conditions today through tonight. Keep tuned to local TV
or radio broadcasts to stay aware of any watches or warnings that
the National Weather Service may issue. Those with NOAA weather all
hazards radio should make sure it is on and ready to receive severe
alerts. If you are at home or at work... make sure you know the
safest place to go if a warning is issued. Remember that Mobile
homes are particularly vulnerable to tornadoes... and are not safe
places when severe weather threatens.


Public Information Statement

Statement as of 6:03 am EST on January 2, 2006

... Public safety statement...

Due to the threat of severe thunderstorms and in particular
damaging wind and tornadoes this evening and tonight here are
some things to keep in mind.

... Safety in cars and Mobile homes...
most tornado deaths and injuries across the state occur
in automobiles and Mobile homes. If a Tornado Warning is issued for
your area or if you see or hear a tornado... seek immediate
shelter in a substantial building. Automobiles and Mobile homes
should be abandoned for more substantial shelter. People are
injured and killed by cars being rolled by tornadoes and debris
generated when Mobile homes collapse. If caught in a car or Mobile
home and no other shelter is available seek shelter in a low spot
like a ditch or culvert. You want to get as low as possible to
protect yourself from flying debris. The debris within the tornado
is what causes nearly all tornado injuries and deaths. Never try
to outrun a tornado in a vehicle. Tornadoes do not always travel
in straight lines and it can be very difficult to determine what
direction the tornado is moving.

... Safety at home or work...
the safest place in a well constructed building is always on the
lowest floor in an interior bathroom or closet with no windows.
The idea is to put as many walls between you and the outside as
possible. Stay away from windows as debris kicked around by high
wind or tornado can easily shatter a window and enter your house.
Debris generated by tornadoes can even penetrate the outer walls
of most homes. Here a simple guideline to follow... get in... get
down... and cover up. This means get well inside a strong
building... get as low as possible... and cover yourself with
pillows to protect yourself from debris.

... Tornadoes at night...
the threat of tornadoes at night is particularly dangerous since
spotting the tornado will be nearly impossible. Even worse... if
tornadoes develop after people have gone to bed many may not hear
life saving warnings. People with NOAA weather radios should make
sure they are on and ready to receive warnings. If you do not have
a NOAA Weather Radio you are urged to closely monitor local news
and weather by tuning into local radio and television late today
and tonight.

... Act quickly...
if tornadoes do develop later today you will need to act quickly in
order to protect yourself and your family. Know what to do and
where to go. When tornadoes strike there is little time to make
the right decision and take protective action. Just a few seconds
saves lives in these situations.

[Brent]

[brandybugg4180]

so far here in the midlands of sc all ive seen is heavy rain and a few rumbles of thunder HOPefully the sun wont poke thru when this round moves thru and it wont get ttoo bad later this evening

[jkt21787]

Horrible bust...

[Skywatch_NC]

Special Weather Statement

Statement as of 12:17 PM EST on January 02, 2006

... Severe thunderstorms possible over much of central North
Carolina this afternoon into tonight...

The threat of severe weather across central North Carolina will
result from a vigorous storm system that will move east south-
eastward from the mid Mississippi Valley later this afternoon and
tonight. As the low pressure system approaches from the west... a
warm front will lift northward into central North Carolina...
bringing moist and unstable air. Additionally... southwesterly
winds will strengthen and combined with this low level moisture
which will produce a threat for severe storms late this afternoon
into the evening hours.

The greatest threat of damaging winds and possibly isolated
tornadoes will be along and southeast of where the warm front is
expected to settle this afternoon... mainly southeast of a line
from Albemarle to Durham to Roanoke Rapids. However the chance for
a severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for any part of central
North Carolina. The risk will be greatest between 4pm and 10 PM
tonight.


People across central North Carolina need to keep a close watch on
the latest conditions this afternoon into tonight. Keep tuned to local
TV or radio broadcasts to stay aware of any watches or warnings
that the National Weather Service may issue. Also stay tuned to NOAA
weather all hazards radio. If you are at home or at work... make
sure you know the safest place to go if a warning is issued.

Remember that Mobile homes are particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes... and are not safe places when severe weather
threatens.

[Brent]

Well that was one of the biggest busts ever... but I'm not complaining. It's 74 degrees right now... yes on January 2nd. If things had come together, it would have been really bad.

[wxmann_91]

Only a few tornadoes reported and it looks like that batch of early junk convection stabilized the atmosphere enough in Georgia and S. Carolina. It looks like at 20Z SPC will downgrade this to a SLGT.

[wxmann_91]

Well that was one of the biggest busts ever... but I'm not complaining. It's 74 degrees right now... yes on January 2nd. If things had come together, it would have been really bad.

Next time look forward to a Day 3 MDT since the only two times they have been issued it turns out they were busts.

[Weatherfreak14]

W just had hail and wind here in Beaufort sc. WAS this line supposed to be the Tornado maker or is there another line to form??

[wxmann_91]

W just had hail and wind here in Beaufort sc. WAS this line supposed to be the Tornado maker or is there another line to form??

That was suppose to be the tornado maker. Another line was expected to develop but due to a stronger cap than expected so good so far.

Not the case in KY, though, since tornado warnings have started popping up and the cell near Louisville has a bit of an appendage on it as well.

[wxmann_91]

Only a few tornadoes reported and it looks like that batch of early junk convection stabilized the atmosphere enough in Georgia and S. Carolina. It looks like at 20Z SPC will downgrade this to a SLGT.

And I was correct. The 20Z outlook has indeed been downgraded to a SLGT.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[wxmann_91]

Damage and a tornado reported in Elizabethtown.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

KYC093-022030-
/O.CON.KLMK.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060102T2030Z/
HARDIN KY-
300 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 330 PM EST FOR HARDIN COUNTY...

AT 256 PM EST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO IN
ELIZABETHTOWN CROSSING ROUTE 31W.

ALSO...BUILDING DAMAGE WAS REPORTED BETWEEN THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN
ROADS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF TOWN. THE TORNADO WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
VINE GROVE BY 305 PM EST
RADCLIFF BY 310 PM EST
8 MILES NORTHWEST OF COLESBURG BY 315 PM EST

THIS IS A REAL TORNADO!! IF YOU ARE IN ELZABETHTOWN OR IN HARDIN
COUNTY NORTHEAST OF ELIZABETHTOWN YOU MUST BE IN STURDY SHELTER
BELOW GROUND RIGHT NOW!

DO NOT USE HIGHWAY OVERPASSES FOR SHELTER.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

LAT...LON 3767 8621 3755 8604 3773 8570 3795 8590

$$

13

The situation in Kentucky is getting somewhat worrisome. The squall line is starting to break up into individual, discrete cells, possibly owing to more directional wind profiles in eastern Kentucky. This might need to be watched. Fat lady hasn't sung yet!