STORM2K

A very comfortable start to the day with the low 60's across NW Harris County and the upper 50's further North. We should be slightly below climatology temperature wise today across our Region before the winds shift East and then to the SE with an onshore flow into the weekend with warm temperature returning. Will pencil in our next front late Sunday into next Monday.

Looking at the longer range, I am seeing some indications of a possible pattern change as a strong Western Pacific Typhoon re curves into the Northern Pacific and buckles the mainly zonal flow we have seen throughout the Summer. It is not unusual to see this sort of Hemispheric Pattern shift as we get deeper into October. If the ECMWF solution is correct, we may see much cooler air build across the Arctic and Siberia. If the jet stream buckles as some of the longer range deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest, we may see some of that "colder air" arrive in about 20 days or so..' or near Halloween. We will see.

JDawg512 wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:The cooler temperatures feel nice, but I don't like this La Nina like pattern setting up. It's been quite dry lately, and unfortunately that looks to continue for at least the next week.

Agreed, I feel the same way. Starting to see that northerly shift in these troughs. This area has been lucky with a good amount of rain the past couple of weeks but we could be in for a long dry period if we keep seeing these dry fronts. Didn't get any rain from this front, the next front looks to be the same.

Honestly I would rather have warmer weather if it means a more southerly storm track, would be nice to have cooler weather but I would never trade my rain for it.

I agree. These dry fronts are sneaky. You get the first one, feels good. Then they come more often, not giving time for the atmosphere to recharge its moisture. If there is moisture, it's usually not enough to produce rain.
Next thing you know, it seems a little dry. Dryness continues, then we're in a dry spell, and we could use rain.

Still no rain, then everything is dusty and the soil is cracked, water levels dropping. Next thing you know, we're in a drought.

Seen that subtle pattern shift many times over the years. Comes in cycles around here, but I prefer a warmer, southern storm track with regular rains too, over consistently dry fronts.

weatherdude1108 wrote:

JDawg512 wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:The cooler temperatures feel nice, but I don't like this La Nina like pattern setting up. It's been quite dry lately, and unfortunately that looks to continue for at least the next week.

Agreed, I feel the same way. Starting to see that northerly shift in these troughs. This area has been lucky with a good amount of rain the past couple of weeks but we could be in for a long dry period if we keep seeing these dry fronts. Didn't get any rain from this front, the next front looks to be the same.

Honestly I would rather have warmer weather if it means a more southerly storm track, would be nice to have cooler weather but I would never trade my rain for it.

I agree. These dry fronts are sneaky. You get the first one, feels good. Then they come more often, not giving time for the atmosphere to recharge its moisture. If there is moisture, it's usually not enough to produce rain.
Next thing you know, it seems a little dry. Dryness continues, then we're in a dry spell, and we could use rain. Still no rain, then everything is dusty and the soil is cracked, water levels dropping. Next thing you know, we're in a drought. Seen that subtle pattern shift many times over the years.

Comes in cycles around here, but I prefer a warmer, southern storm track with regular rains too, over consistently dry fronts.

We have seen back to back cold ENSO now and the PDO is not as strongly positive as it was. Drought year/years is probably not a huge surprise going forward. As rain in the long run is not the same as it was the past 2 years following El Nino. Earlier in the thread we discussed how hurricane hits and big hurricane seasons in the Atlantic (subsequent quiet in the EPAC) are early signs in some cases of drought kicking in.

Ike kicked off the mega drought starting in 08..will Harvey be a similar indicator?

Well guys, tomorrow I will have my first ever meteorology interview for an internship here in Columbus. Wish me luck!

TheProfessor wrote:Well guys, tomorrow I will have my first ever meteorology interview for an internship here in Columbus. Wish me luck!

Awesome!! Good luck! We're pulling for ya!

I hate this pattern. Im not in any way good at predicting what Oct-Nov or Mar-May during these types of patterns. With the hadley cell moving around due to sun positioning etc. I will say, i think this year will be much like last, except winter wont run away from us so quickly as long the 1+2 region stays cool. I think the Inter-mountain west will have big storms swinging through, with some big shots of cold coming down.

Heres a look at my weather station last year and you can see how similar October has been. I expect much of the same
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-w ... 231/mmonth
nn

I forgot an important part, ZERO SUNSPOTS! This could be huge, and correct me if im wrong, the effect of sunspots isnt entirely known, but ive heard that it typically leads to more blocking in the higher latitudes. This would be great.

TheProfessor wrote:Well guys, tomorrow I will have my first ever meteorology interview for an internship here in Columbus. Wish me luck!

You can do it!!

weatherdude1108 wrote: Plus, it seems like more people get irritable and drive crazier when it's consistently hot I've noticed. Not pleasant.

There's some evidence that extreme heat does bump crime levels up, so it's not surprising that aggressive behavior in general also increases: http://www.npr.org/2011/08/03/138957971 ... -and-crime

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:I hate this pattern. Im not in any way good at predicting what Oct-Nov or Mar-May during these types of patterns. With the hadley cell moving around due to sun positioning etc. I will say, i think this year will be much like last, except winter wont run away from us so quickly as long the 1+2 region stays cool. I think the Inter-mountain west will have big storms swinging through, with some big shots of cold coming down.

Heres a look at my weather station last year and you can see how similar October has been. I expect much of the same
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-w ... 231/mmonth
nn

I forgot an important part, ZERO SUNSPOTS! This could be huge, and correct me if im wrong, the effect of sunspots isnt entirely known, but ive heard that it typically leads to more blocking in the higher latitudes. This would be great.

Low sunspots (with proper QBO) do favor more blocking but the effects of that are usually felt at the absolute min or a little after. That is slated sometime 2019-2021 period.

srainhoutx wrote:A very comfortable start to the day with the low 60's across NW Harris County and the upper 50's further North. We should be slightly below climatology temperature wise today across our Region before the winds shift East and then to the SE with an onshore flow into the weekend with warm temperature returning. Will pencil in our next front late Sunday into next Monday.

Looking at the longer range, I am seeing some indications of a possible pattern change as a strong Western Pacific Typhoon re curves into the Northern Pacific and buckles the mainly zonal flow we have seen throughout the Summer. It is not unusual to see this sort of Hemispheric Pattern shift as we get deeper into October. If the ECMWF solution is correct, we may see much cooler air build across the Arctic and Siberia. If the jet stream buckles as some of the longer range deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest, we may see some of that "colder air" arrive in about 20 days or so..' or near Halloween. We will see.

The overall Pacific loading pattern also seems to favor a transition to cooler and wetter. The big question will be do we see the Pacific jet streak stay retracted or do we see a repeat of last year with an immediate extension back across the Pacific? I agree that things are pointing to our coldest air of the season coming in around Halloween, which would be a nice change vs recent Halloweens.

Tireman4 wrote:

TheProfessor wrote:Well guys, tomorrow I will have my first ever meteorology interview for an internship here in Columbus. Wish me luck!

You can do it!!

Good luck!!! You've come a long way since you joined this forum. From High School to Internship, you'll do great.

Thank you everyone!

Two areas in the ssta maps that sticks out to me. Very cold eastern Pacific and cold Indian Ocean. We haven't seen an eastern tilted Nina look in quite some time. For the past 2 decades or so its often colder in the central basin. More after some reanalysis on years with eastern tilted Ninas

As many have pointed out above, rumblings in the longer range of full scale NHEM pattern shift. North America gets colder and -NAO signal with decent Pacific. Lucy watch for Halloween to early November

Ntxw wrote:As many have pointed out above, rumblings in the longer range of full scale NHEM pattern shift. North America gets colder and -NAO signal with decent Pacific. Lucy watch for Halloween to early November

She's ready to go waiting to make her move.

It would be cool to have a cool Halloween, it's been so many years since the last time there was a chilly Halloween.

Not bad. Wish we could get this pooling of moisture to create storms before every Fall cold front. Keeps the air clean and fresh.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 122008
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
308 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday)...

Warming overnight low temperatures into the early weekend with no
major weather highlights outside of slightly above normal
temperatures for this time of year. However, big changes are expected
for the late weekend. See the long-term discussion for more details
on the pattern change.

For today, south winds are slowly bringing in additional low-level
moisture as low to mid-level ridging occurs over the Sabine and
Mississippi River Valleys. This moisture-laden south wind fetch will
aid in the development of low clouds after midnight across much of
the region and also aid in some patchy fog for the coastal plains.
Fog is not expected to be dense at this time. The extra moisture
overnight will keep temperatures up vs. previous nights with readings
only falling into the the mid 60s to low 70s.

Clouds will eventually mixout tomorrow by late morning as south winds
continue and a pleasant and warm Friday is expected. Afternoon
temperatures will reach into the mid to upper 80s most locations and
even some 90s could be possible for the coastal plains. These values
are about 3-5 degrees above normal for this time of year. A near
repeat of clouds are expected after midnight Friday night into
Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...

A long-wave trough currently over the Pacific Northwest will pivot
across central U.S. plains by late Saturday into early Sunday. A
decently strong cold front will sweep through the entire region
Sunday morning bringing elevated rain/thunderstorm chances, a stiff
north breeze, clouds, and much cooler temperatures. No hazards are
expected at this time with the passage of the front.

Before the large pattern change on Sunday, Saturday will be the last
warm day with good amount of afternoon sun as temperatures again
reach into the upper 80s. Models have come into good agreement of a
frontal passage early Sunday morning. Overall thermodynamic elements
of lapse rates and instability could support thunderstorms along the
main frontal line but with weak deep layer shear and little dynamic
support that remains much farther north, no organized or strong
storms are expected. PWATs will pool to 1.75" ahead of the front and
this could aid in some brief heavy rainfall in the stronger storms
but the front will have good southward momentum and rainfall duration
will be kept low. In fact, latest model runs indicate a slightly
faster frontal progression with rain likely ending by late morning
to early afternoon Sunday across much of the region. Have placed this
timing in the official forecast to better show the ramp up and then ramp
down of rain chances during that period.

The trickiest weather element on Sunday will be the afternoon high
temperatures. Temperatures will likely have a hard time recovering
post-frontal with the indicated post-frontal cloud cover and north
winds. Have trimmed off 2-3 degrees from the SuperBlend model this
package while also increasing the winds and wind gusts. Gusts could
reach upwards of 20-30 mph Sunday afternoon.

Much cooler conditions expected Monday and Tuesday with lows reaching
down in the 40-50s and highs in the 70s with north winds persisting.
Winds will then shift back east and then south mid to late week with
a warming trend expected into late next week.

Hmm... Big Texas rain event before full latitude trough sets up across Central US?



When filtering analogs by QBO there does appear to be a risk of this winter being wetter than a typical Nina. However, I'm still bummed ENSO didn't play along with my fav analog from back in March.

GFS dumping cold right before Halloween though it is fantasy land(but it matches what was said upthread).

Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

A strong cold front will cross SE TX late Sunday resulting in some of the coolest temperatures since last spring, early next week

Upper air pattern over the US will undergo amplification with a trough developing over the western US into the central plains unleashing a Canadian air mass southward down the plains today into this weekend. Upper ridge over the eastern US and Gulf of Mexico will break down enough to allow this front to push off the TX coast Sunday evening. May see enough moisture return ahead of the front to result in a few showers on Sunday, but don’t think we will see more than 30% coverage.

Post frontal cold air advection will increase Sunday night as NW winds push the colder air mass into the area. Could see some pretty good wind gusts near the coast Sunday night into Monday as the colder air moves over the warm Gulf waters. Highs on Monday will only reach the mid 70’s and lows Tuesday morning will fall into the upper 40’s and lower 50’s over the region.

Unfortunately, the same high pressure ridge building southward across the Rockies this weekend will result in a “Santa Ana” wind event for much of the state of California already dealing with 22 major wildfires. ENE/NE surface winds will be developing Saturday and lasting into Monday which will result in strong downslope component off the mountains across the central part of the state. This results in rapid drying of the air mass and wind speeds can reach 50-70mph through the valleys and canyons producing extreme fire weather conditions. While most typical in southern CA, this event will span much of the state

A slow warming trend will begin by the middle of next week as winds swing back to the ESE and Gulf moisture makes a return to the area.

Since it was brought up about a possible cold Halloween, I thought I would toss out a little unscientific, but factual data. As you may or may not know, several years ago I did a thing I called the Halloween analogy. The folklore behind it (mine of course) is that if Halloween was either colder or warmer than normal, then that would tell you how the following Winter would play out. The side bonus was if Halloween was wet it meant a wetter Winter.

So here is Halloween 2002-2016 and what the following winter was like on average. (.05 +/- is average) (1.0 +/- is warmer/colder than avg) Winter 2013/2014 could go average/slightly colder than....

I didn't do the precip averages but the colder winters did tend to be slightly wetter historically.



Year__Halloween__High/Low/Avg/ +/- Following Winter

2017___Oct31
2016___Oct31___87/61/74/11/warmer than average (La Nina/Neutral)
2015___Oct31___68 /59/ 64/ 1/ warmer than average (El Nino)
2014___Oct31___67/ 47/ 57/ -6/ colder than average (El Nino)
2013___Oct31___75/ 54/ 65/ 2/ colder than average (Neutral)
2012___Oct31___83/ 50/ 67/ 4/ warmer than average (Neutral)
2011___Oct31___77/ 46/ 62/ -1/ warmer than average (La Nina)
2010___Oct31___85/ 53/ 69/ 8/ warmer than average (La Nina)
2009___Oct31___74/ 41/ 58/ -3/ colder than average (El Nino)
2008___Oct31___84/ 59/ 72/ 11/ warmer than average (La Nina)
2007___Oct31___81/ 54/ 68/ 7/ warmer than average (La Nina)
2006___Oct31___70/ 45/ 58/ -3/ warmer than average (El Nino)
2005___Oct31___73/ 51/ 62/ 1/ warmer than average (La Nina)
2004___Oct31___84/ 62/ 73/ 12/ warmer than average (El Nino)
2003___Oct31___87/ 72/ 80/ 19/ warmer than average (Neutral)
2002___Oct31___52/ 46/ 49/ -12/ colder than average (El Nino)


Things that make you go hmmmm