Texas Fall 2024

[Ntxw]

Long range ensembles looks more of the same. Above normal heights across the continent and troughing near Alaska. Might be mid November before any cold is allowed to build, not a guaranty it will with the way the Pacific has behaved.

[CaptinCrunch]

.LONG TERM... /Issued 259 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024/
Update:
The previous forecast remains mostly on track with only minor
modifications made to the rain chances associated with the
backdoor cold front arriving Friday. Unfortunately, the
probability of measurable precipitation continues to decrease (now
below 10 percent), with rain chances generally expected to stay
north of the Red River on Saturday. Otherwise, increasing
southerly winds on Thursday ahead of a deepening surface low in
eastern Colorado combined with near-record heat and drought
stressed vegetation hint at the potential for emerging grass fire
concerns through the afternoon. The primary mitigating factor will
be the afternoon relative humidity which is expected to settle
just above critical thresholds. Additionally, daily high
temperature records are set to be reached or broken in many areas
on Thursday if the current forecast verifies. Current records are
90F at DFW (set in 2003) and 91F at Waco (set in 1991/1992).

Rinse and Repeat

There are still signals of a slight pattern change next week, but it will only be a stepdown change over several days, and it will only bring us down to normal. The bigger issue, is does not look to be a long term change, at this time.

You can pretty much lock in October as a record breaker for Hottest and Driest recorded. bye bye 2016 and hello 2024

[Stratton23]

Thats extremely depressing to hear, we better be rewarded in winter for putting up with this extremely miserable summer 2.0

[JDawg512]

I hate to sound like a broken record but this has been warned about for a long while. We are heating the planet up with our greenhouse emissions, we have the data and scientific evidence which only keeps piling up. This is exactly the scenario we have been warned about so I'm not really sure why people are suprised. It's not just Texas. Take a look at what is going on in the Amazon rainforest. Their worst drought ever recorded, whole sections of the Amazon river basin completely dried up. If the Amazon collapses it is going to drastically and rapidly alter patterns around the world and its by far not the only region in a dire situation. All over the world patterns are shifting. I'm gonna post a video from YouTube by the Economist (which is not political but looks at the situation from an economic standpoint and it looks at the science) that was posted 2 years ago which sums up the situation.



Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=uynhvHZUOOo

[cstrunk]

I know these CPC maps tend to change at the drop of a hat, sometimes daily, but it's still nice to see a shift from much below normal precip odds to near/above normal odds.

Looks more hopeful at least (as of 10/22/2024). More model consistency than yesterday, which means they're latching onto something(?).

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

I'm not buying into the precip forecast for Texas. Hope I'm wrong. We can't even get rain with "normal" chances with these outlooks. If they are highlighting above normal precip for Texas at this time of year (wet season) I'd be looking for at least an inch or two of widespread rain, if not more, and I'm just not seeing it.

[Kirby68]

I hate to sound like a broken record but this has been warned about for a long while. We are heating the planet up with our greenhouse emissions, we have the data and scientific evidence which only keeps piling up. This is exactly the scenario we have been warned about so I'm not really sure why people are suprised. It's not just Texas. Take a look at what is going on in the Amazon rainforest. Their worst drought ever recorded, whole sections of the Amazon river basin completely dried up. If the Amazon collapses it is going to drastically and rapidly alter patterns around the world and its by far not the only region in a dire situation. All over the world patterns are shifting. I'm gonna post a video from YouTube by the Economist (which is not political but looks at the situation from an economic standpoint and it looks at the science) that was posted 2 years ago which sums up the situation.

https://youtu.be/uynhvHZUOOo?si=GA-0_MAOoASB8dsA

Doesn’t seem like you hate sounding like a broken record. You actually sound like every other climate alarmist.

[Stratton23]

Man the PNA is way too negative right now, thats the reason that models keep the trough locked over the western US, that. PNA needs to freaking relax!

[Brent]

Euro with a cutoff low in the Southwest

If only

[Stratton23]

Too far to the west, SE Ridge is way too strong unfortunately

[Stratton23]

Somehow Noaas newest 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks are even more aggressive with above normal precipitation for texas, despite a clear lack of rain in models, weird

[cstrunk]

Somehow Noaas newest 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks are even more aggressive with above normal precipitation for texas, despite a clear lack of rain in models, weird

Seems like they are latching onto the Euro... or maybe the Euro is latching onto what they are seeing. Euro is showing widespread precip starting mid-week and especially towards the end of next week. The GFS does show some, but much lighter amounts.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I hate to sound like a broken record but this has been warned about for a long while. We are heating the planet up with our greenhouse emissions, we have the data and scientific evidence which only keeps piling up. This is exactly the scenario we have been warned about so I'm not really sure why people are suprised. It's not just Texas. Take a look at what is going on in the Amazon rainforest. Their worst drought ever recorded, whole sections of the Amazon river basin completely dried up. If the Amazon collapses it is going to drastically and rapidly alter patterns around the world and its by far not the only region in a dire situation. All over the world patterns are shifting. I'm gonna post a video from YouTube by the Economist (which is not political but looks at the situation from an economic standpoint and it looks at the science) that was posted 2 years ago which sums up the situation.

https://youtu.be/uynhvHZUOOo?si=GA-0_MAOoASB8dsA

Doesn’t seem like you hate sounding like a broken record. You actually sound like every other climate alarmist.

What happens where is something i dont agree with on the climate changing. The main issue is the massive amount of ice that doesnt exist at the poles. Makes such a large difference in the global climate.

[CaptinCrunch]

Unfortunately there are many key factors that play into climate change, and the human factor is #1 on that list.

9 of the top 10 hottest years GLOBALLY have been the last 9 years, and 2024 will probably make it 10 for 10. The last time our global average temperature was at or below +0.5c the global industrial area was 1994. We have now entered a period where the last 9 years have all topped the +1.5c mark.

[Cpv17]

I hate to sound like a broken record but this has been warned about for a long while. We are heating the planet up with our greenhouse emissions, we have the data and scientific evidence which only keeps piling up. This is exactly the scenario we have been warned about so I'm not really sure why people are suprised. It's not just Texas. Take a look at what is going on in the Amazon rainforest. Their worst drought ever recorded, whole sections of the Amazon river basin completely dried up. If the Amazon collapses it is going to drastically and rapidly alter patterns around the world and its by far not the only region in a dire situation. All over the world patterns are shifting. I'm gonna post a video from YouTube by the Economist (which is not political but looks at the situation from an economic standpoint and it looks at the science) that was posted 2 years ago which sums up the situation.

https://youtu.be/uynhvHZUOOo?si=GA-0_MAOoASB8dsA

Doesn’t seem like you hate sounding like a broken record. You actually sound like every other climate alarmist.

Well it has to be something. This weather for the past 10-15 years now has been wack af.

[Cpv17]

Somehow Noaas newest 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks are even more aggressive with above normal precipitation for texas, despite a clear lack of rain in models, weird

Seems like they are latching onto the Euro... or maybe the Euro is latching onto what they are seeing. Euro is showing widespread precip starting mid-week and especially towards the end of next week. The GFS does show some, but much lighter amounts.

Not sure what you’re seeing. The 12z Euro has very little rain in Texas except for the Panhandle.

[Ntxw]

The reality is it's warm everywhere. The Arctic is warm, Siberia is mild, the polar regions are warm, the nearby oceans are well above normal. What we have is excessive warmth all around us, it's not going to be cold if there is no cold to be had. That's just math 101. There are pockets of 'normal to cool' air in places like parts of Alaska and British Columbia but even for them nothing that impressive and too small in the grand scheme to make a difference.

Best we can ask for right now is climo or "normal" which is a break from the duration of warmth. It will eventually get cold, because of seasonal norms, it's just taking way too long.

There is variability with El Nino-La Nina transition years. You can have totally great years like 1983-1984, 2010-2011, and 2020-2021 but then you can also have dud years (and when they are dud they are really miserable) like 1998-1999, and 2016-2017 which ranks as DFW's two warmest winters.

[cstrunk]

Somehow Noaas newest 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks are even more aggressive with above normal precipitation for texas, despite a clear lack of rain in models, weird

Seems like they are latching onto the Euro... or maybe the Euro is latching onto what they are seeing. Euro is showing widespread precip starting mid-week and especially towards the end of next week. The GFS does show some, but much lighter amounts.

Not sure what you’re seeing. The 12z Euro has very little rain in Texas except for the Panhandle.

I was looking at the 00z run for the 31st/1st. But it's still a long way out.

[Brent]

Now our met is talking about severe weather in early November

GFS would be a setup on Election Day but thats still 300 hours out

[cstrunk]

The 12z and 00z Euro are showing some rain (an inch or so) on Fri/Sat next week. The GFS is still dry or very light rainfall totals. Just as long as it doesn't rain from 3-6 pm on Saturday...

The GFS seems to like the 3rd-5th for higher rain chances.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW LONG TERM... /Issued 253 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024/
/This Weekend Though Halloween/

The period will begin with the weakening cold front (discussed
above) draped across North Texas and western Central Texas,
sagging very slowly southeastward through the region. Little
change in airmass characteristics behind this front will yield a
continuation of climatologically abnormal temperatures with
daytime highs ranging from the lower 80s near the Red River to
near 90 degrees in the Hill Country. While widespread
precipitation is not expected to accompany this FROPA, waning
large-scale ascent associated with the departing shortwave trough
combined with frontogenetical lift from the surface boundary and
lingering boundary-layer moisture could be sufficient for a few
showers in our far northeast zones during the pre-dawn hours on
Saturday. With the front still in the area Saturday evening, we
could see a few additional stray showers develop in the northeast
overnight.

Late this weekend into early next week, the axis of the
mid-level subtropical ridge anchored over the Baja Peninsula will
tilt across the Plains. This 594 dam high is around 3 standard
deviations above average for late October which is at the max of
the climatology percentiles. To the northwest, there will be an
mid/upper trough moving through the eastern Pacific and into the
Pacific Northwest. The associated height falls spreading east
toward the Rockies will result in lee cyclogenesis and increased
southerly low-level flow across the southern Plains. Amid these
increasing southerly breezes, temperatures will again climb to
within a few degrees of daily records with highs in the mid 80s to
lower 90s through mid-week. There has been little change to the
forecast for the final few days of the month with rain chances
still (optimistically) favored to return Wednesday afternoon
through Halloween as a shortwave trough lifts across the central
CONUS. If the current forecast verifies, this October will be
knocked out of the running for the driest October on record...an
honor I think we would all like to pass on!

So you're saying there's a chance?