Florida Weather

[Sanibel]

That IR shot shows how the Caribbean dry season airmass rips us off of continental rain.

[jinftl]

NWS Miami not expecting much in the way of thunderstorms or severe weather this far south...best shot of rain is Sunday with a 40% chance. One thing that stands out from the NWS Miami forecast below.....highs and lows continue to slowly creep up next week....looking less and less like late winter/early spring and more and more like late spring in terms of temps.

COLD FRONT APPEARS TO APPROACH THE NWRN CWA NEAR 12Z SUN. DEEP LAYER
SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS COULD MAKE FOR A
TOASTY DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST IF CLOUDS CAN HOLD OFF. FRONT WILL
WORK ITS WAY THROUGH DURING THE DAY. OVERALL GFS QPF OUTPUT LOOKS A
BIT OVERDONE GIVEN BEST FORCING IS WELL N OF THE AREA...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NONETHELESS...AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO AS WELL...BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR WITH 500MB TEMPS
FCST ONLY AROUND -8C AT THE COLDEST...AND INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
ALONG WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND THESE FACTORS USUALLY DO NOT
BODE WELL FOR STORM CHANCES.

NWS Forecast for: Miami FL
Issued by: National Weather Service Miami - South Florida
Last Update: 11:55 am EDT Mar 27, 2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This Afternoon: Partly sunny, with a high near 80.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 74.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Wi
Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74.
Sunday: A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday Night: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 82.
Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.
Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 85.
Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71.
Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 86.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 72.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Warm, breezy, and quite humid but nice with the wind
Mouth of Tampa Bay:
Winds S 26 MPH Gusts 30 MPH:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MCCUF1
115 PM: S 29 MPH, G 34 MPH
Saint Petersburg Beach: S 23 G 33 MPH
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KFLSAINT5
http://bcbaywatch.com/


BRING ON THE RAIN AND WIND BABY!!!! THAT'S WHAT I LIKE!!!!!

[jinftl]

Panhandle's soaking is showing up clearly on today's kbdi...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MCWBF1
Clearwater: S 28 G 39 MPH
Tropical Storm Force Gusts

[gatorcane]

Talk about a detailed and in-depth discussion. Hats off to Miami NWS on this one (which is bringing more rain to South Florida this weekend)

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
Current Version
Previous Version: 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56
[Printable]

Links in the discussion text will open a (small) new browser window with more information inside.
A more complete Weather Glossary is Available Here

000
FXUS62 KMFL 281140 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
740 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

.AVIATION...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BECOME TIGHTER TODAY AS A SFC
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SE/S SFC
WIND INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 13Z WITH SUSTAIN SPEEDS 19 T0 23
KTS AND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
PREVAIL OVR MOST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH CEILING AS
LOW AS 2500 FT...EXCEPT 1400FT AT KAPF. WL INDICATE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
THIS WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER 13Z. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 4 KFT.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO THE FCST SCENARIO THROUGH MONDAY FOR SOUTH
FL. STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO EJECT NE TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED SFC
CYCLONE. THIS WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO ERODE THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE
JUST SE OF THE REGION AND DRAG A SFC COLD FRONT TO A LINE ROUGHLY
FROM MELBOURNE TO FT MYERS BY 12Z SUN...THEN THROUGH SOUTH FL DURING
THE DAY ON SUN.

LOCALLY...EXPECT FAIRLY BRISK SSE FLOW TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20KTS PSBL DURING PEAK HEATING AND GUSTS AROUND
25KTS AT TIMES AS WELL. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY...THOUGH
INTERIOR AREAS MAY BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING COMBINE WITH SFC CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO BREAK
THE REMAINING CAP AROUND 700MB AND LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN TODAY. THINK THE BEST THREAT GIVEN LOW LEVEL SSE FLOW WILL BE
AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...EXCEPT PALM BEACH COUNTY AS
SHOWERS WILL TEND TO MOVE NE AFTER FORMING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH GREATEST CHANCES LIKELY
LATE AT NIGHT NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND IN
NAPLES AREA WHERE SW FLOW MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ONSHORE FROM THE
GULF. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SE COAST AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AND A LITTLE FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPS...THEN MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLC AS IS SOMETIMES SEEN THE
NIGHT BEFORE A FROPA HERE...AND WILL INCREASE POPS UP SLIGHTLY IN
THESE AREAS BUT NOT GO AS ROBUST AS THE MET MOS GUIDANCE.

SFC WINDS BECOME SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUN. MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SUN
AT TIMES...AND THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW COULD MAKE IT
A WARM DAY ON THE EAST COAST DEPENDING ON JUST HOW MUCH SUN THERE
IS. GIVEN PWATS CLIMB TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND FCST SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY...FEEL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PSBL AT JUST
ABOUT ANYTIME SUN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PSBL AS WELL...BUT
WITH CAPE AROUND OR LESS THAN 1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
VEERING SFC WINDS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET MANY UPDRAFTS THAT
STRONG. GREATEST CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY BE NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN
THE MORNING HRS AS A WEAKENING BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT INTO THIS REGION.

FRONT CLEARS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SFC HIGH AND LIGHT FLOW
BUILDING OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE WEATHER THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK HIGHLY DEPENDS ON EXACT EVOLUTION OF UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS AND POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT RETURNS
NORTHWARD. GFS/ECMWF DISAGREE SLIGHTLY ON THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FROM THE NW CARIB TO THE WESTERN ATLC AHEAD OF NEXT IN
SERIES OF TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER. AS A RESULT...GFS MOVES RETURNING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
ON TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH OF THE REGION WED-FRI AS IT
WASHES OUT...WHILE ECMWF STALLS FRONT AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
THIS PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY FLATTER MID LEVEL RIDGE SE OF THE REGION.
THIS SUBTLE DIFFERENCE COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ISOLD
SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE/WED (GFS) VERSUS MORE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS
(ECMWF) IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES BEYOND
MON AS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN EVOLUTION STILL...AND A
WEAK REINFORCING BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FL COULD
COMPLICATE THE SCENARIO EVEN MORE. GIVEN MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING SE OF THE REGION...MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT
SEEMS TO LIE WITH THE FRONT MOVING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH OF THE
REGION MID WEEK WITH LOWER POPS AS INDICATED BY THE GFS.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...WILL LEAN TOWARDS COOLER MET (NAM) MOS GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS ON EAST COAST TODAY SINCE THE MAV HAS BEEN SEVERAL DEGREES
TOO WARM WITH THE SE/ONSHORE FLOW THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. TEMP FCST
ON SUN IS TRICKY AHEAD OF FRONT...THINK MODEL FCSTS OF MID 80S ARE
JUSTIFIED BUT WITH SW FLOW IT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF THE
CLOUD COVER IS NOT TOO GREAT.

MARINE...
S/SSE WINDS AROUND 20KTS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AND WILL EXPAND SCA
FOR ALL WATERS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. S/SSW WINDS TONIGHT/SUN AHEAD OF
FRONT...WITH SCA FOR ATLC PSBL AS WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS
WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL JET MIXING DOWN. LIGHTER WINDS AND DECREASING
SEAS EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NW TO NE TO ESE SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE AT
10KTS BEHIND FRONT. STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY PICK UP ONCE AGAIN
MID WEEK. SEAS INITIALLY WILL RUN 6 TO 7FT IN THE GULFSTREAM TODAY
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NERLY SWELL OF
1-3 FEET WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING ON
SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO RH CONCERNS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST TRENDS/FCSTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 84 74 83 61 / 20 30 50 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 74 86 66 / 10 30 50 20
MIAMI 84 74 86 66 / 10 30 50 20
NAPLES 85 73 78 61 / 10 30 60 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610-
AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
GMZ657-GMZ676.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...65/GS
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...47/RHG







--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Lake Wind Advisory:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw
If you click an area right along the pinellas county beach
the forecast is for wind gusts to 39 mph...
Expect tropical storm force wind gusts today

Winds are already gusting to 25 mph along/near the Bay where
I live...

[Sanibel]

4th day now with steady S winds.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

As of 1137 AM EST: Periodic Strong Wind Gusts of 35 mph especially
right over the canal connecting to the Bay.

My wind estimate is less than what is taking place on Clearwater Beach:
Current winds are gusting to tropical storm force: 39 mph
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=CWBF1

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Tropical Storm Conditions
Clearwater Beach: G 43 MPH last hour max
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=CWBF1

Saint Petersburg Airport/Clearwater Airport:
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... &map.y=142
S 30 G 41 MPH, tropical storm force wind gusts

[psyclone]

convection in the gulf looks very anemic at this point. unless something starts to come together later this afternoon I'm afraid peninsular Florida may be screwed again in the rainfall dept. And holy smokes is it windy out there! Big time rips along the beaches and probably some elevated tides and beach erosion today.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=CWBF1
S 45 MPH last hour

[caneman]

Out walking near Indian Rocks Beach today and it feels very much like a tropical storm, minus the rain.

[jinftl]

Hot and windy...latest temps and wind speeds...several locations at or near 90 deg!

FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
200 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

PENSACOLA MOSUNNY 80 W13G20
PANAMA CITY TSTM 72 S15G26
GAINESVILLE MOSUNNY 84 S13G23
JACKSONVILLE PTSUNNY 84 S12G26
ST AUGUSTINE PTSUNNY 84 S21G31
OCALA PTSUNNY 90 S23G32
ORLANDO INTL CLOUDY 85 S22G29
DAYTONA BEACH PTSUNNY 86 22G29
MELBOURNE PTSUNNY 89 S18G28
FT PIERCE PTSUNNY 88 S14G28
BROOKSVILLE MOSUNNY 87 S15G28
CLEARWATER MOSUNNY 85 S33G44
TAMPA CLOUDY 83 S21G30
VANDENBERG PTSUNNY 90 S23G33
PLANT CITY PTSUNNY 88 S18G26
ST PETERSBURG MOSUNNY 82 S23G33
PUNTA GORDA MOSUNNY 88 S24G36
FT MYERS MOSUNNY 85 S20G37
NAPLES SUNNY 84 S24G32
KEY WEST INTL SUNNY 81 SE14G20
W PALM BEACH MOSUNNY 82 S23G29
FT LAUDERDALE PTSUNNY 82 SE20G28
MIAMI PTSUNNY 83 SE18G24

[gatorcane]

convection in the gulf looks very anemic at this point. unless something starts to come together later this afternoon I'm afraid peninsular Florida may be screwed again in the rainfall dept. And holy smokes is it windy out there! Big time rips along the beaches and probably some elevated tides and beach erosion today.

If its going to happen it will be a fairly thin but potent strong line of storms in the wake of the front. The thinking is that the low level jet at 50K combined with moisture from the Gulf will create the needed lift. For the Tampa area, there is still about 12 hours for this to happen before the front moves through.

Further South, in Southern Florida the chance or rain appears like it will exist through most of tomorrow. GFS/ECMWF stall the front over the FL straits then move it back over Lake O which may keep rain chances up for the Southern part of the peninsula for several days next week. However, should the front move farther north and stall Tampa area will have another shot of rain again. I'd give central FL about a 20% of POPS at this time for next week.

[jinftl]

FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
300 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009


PENSACOLA MOSUNNY 83 W12
GAINESVILLE MOSUNNY 87 SW26G38
JACKSONVILLE PTSUNNY 86 S18G29
OCALA PTSUNNY 90 S23G31
ORLANDO INTL PTSUNNY 88 S12G23
WINTER HAVEN PTSUNNY 90 S18G29
DAYTONA BEACH PTSUNNY 85 S20G29
MELBOURNE PTSUNNY 87 S23G30
FT PIERCE MOSUNNY 88 S17G32
CLEARWATER SUNNY 85 S30G41
TAMPA CLOUDY 83 S17G28
PLANT CITY MOSUNNY 90 S21G37
ST PETERSBURG MOSUNNY 83 S21G35
FT MYERS MOSUNNY 85 S24G35
KEY WEST INTL SUNNY 82 S13
W PALM BEACH MOSUNNY 83 S18G29
MIAMI PTSUNNY 84 S18G24

[HURAKAN]

[psyclone]

I visited the beach this afternoon and have not observed wind conditions like this (from the south) since hurricane Dennis passed by in july 2005. the weather service was calling for winds of 20 knots. the truth was winds were averaging 25 to 30 knots with frequent gusts to gale force. it is a washing machine out there! Very cool minus the blowing sand (Florida's version of a bllizzard). Convection in the gulf still looks lame south of 28 degrees but it isn't over till its over. hopefully we get a decent shot of rain but i have my doubts.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Wind gusts over 50 mph today
Clearwater Airport had winds of 47 mph earlier

[tropicana]

Other 90s in Florida today included but not limited to :

St Lucie County International Airport 90F
Orlando 90F
Melbourne 91F

-justin-