SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[vbhoutex]

Crossing my fingers and toes here David! I'm also amazed at how much overrunning filled in behind the front overnight. Last time I check radar last night the line was around Dallas. When I looked this morning just as it reached NW Harris County, it was STILL raining from Brownwood to Dallas.

Yep, that opened my eyes wide when I got up this morning and looked at the radar. I was hoping for a quick fropa with little or no overrunning. Oh well.

[southerngale]

In the text from NESDIS that srainhoutx posted above, it said, "WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE AREA ESPECIALLY
FROM SE TX INTO SW LA DURING THE MORNING TO SEE IF THE SFC BOUNDARY SLOWS
DOWN ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT LONGER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL."

Any signs of that? It's pouring here, but if it just passes through quickly, there shouldn't be too many problems.

[srainhoutx]

In the text from NESDIS that srainhoutx posted above, it said, "WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE AREA ESPECIALLY
FROM SE TX INTO SW LA DURING THE MORNING TO SEE IF THE SFC BOUNDARY SLOWS
DOWN ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT LONGER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL."

Any signs of that? It's pouring here, but if it just passes through quickly, there shouldn't be too many problems.

SG, the area to your N appears to be slowing it's eastward progression in the Piney Woods. I am concerned with the amount of moisture in the GOM headed towards Far SE TX and LA for later today into tonight.

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... g&itype=ir

[Diva]

It's pouring and very windy here!

It hasn't quite made it to Orange County yet. I was expecting rain but wasn't expecting the wind along with it! It's extremely calm here right now.

[southerngale]

In the text from NESDIS that srainhoutx posted above, it said, "WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE AREA ESPECIALLY
FROM SE TX INTO SW LA DURING THE MORNING TO SEE IF THE SFC BOUNDARY SLOWS
DOWN ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT LONGER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL."

Any signs of that? It's pouring here, but if it just passes through quickly, there shouldn't be too many problems.

SG, the area to your N appears to be slowing it's eastward progression in the Piney Woods. I am concerned with the amount of moisture in the GOM headed towards Far SE TX and LA for later today into tonight.

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... g&itype=ir

You mean something else coming back up from the GOM after this passes? I was thinking after the heaviest stuff passed, it was light to moderate rain, like we're seeing in Central Texas after FROPA.

[srainhoutx]

Here's snipet from the SPC concerning what caught my attention.

A SEPARATE CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ISOLD SVR WX MAY EVOLVE EARLY TUE IN
SRN LA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SWRN LA GULF CST. STRENGTHENING LOW
TO MID LVL WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SFC WAVE AND
APPROACHING UPR SYSTEM MAY YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ROTATING STORMS NEAR AND JUST NE OF
SFC WAVE. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN
LARGELY OFFSHORE...AT LEAST UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IF...HOWEVER...DISCRETE STORMS DO INDEED FORM OVER THE CSTL
WATERS...A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT WOULD EXIST FOR A TORNADO OR TWO
ONSHORE AS THE MID LVL JET BACKS/STRENGTHENS ATOP MOIST SSELY
NEAR-SFC FLOW.


Also there is a rather stout shortwave near Laredo that may act as a trigger later today. Corpus Christi just updated concerning this feature as it moves ENE along/behind the front. All in all it looks wet.

HGX just Updated...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1018 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2009

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SENT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST AS SQUALL LINE MOVES INTO THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. MOST AREAS SEEING 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2.5-3 INCHES. STILL WILL HOLD ONTO FLOOD
WATCH EVEN THOUGH THE THREAT LOOKS RATHER SMALL AT THIS POINT.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS YET TO PULL INTO TX AND LIFT WITH THAT
SYSTEM COULD STILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA.
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
THIS EVOLUTION SINCE NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING SQUALL LINE
PROPERLY ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT. ACTUALL COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
BE LAGGING OVER C TX AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

[vbhoutex]

Am I seeing a possible sfc low beginning to develop around Port Lavaca? Probably just a convergence going on as opposed to any circulation developing.

[HouTXmetro]

Am I seeing a possible sfc low beginning to develop around Port Lavaca? Probably just a convergence going on as opposed to any circulation developing.

I don't know but I do see Moderate convection extending well NW of San Antonio in the The Texas Plains/Plateau. Looks like a LONG and WET day.

[srainhoutx]

SPC Update...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2009

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

....SYNOPSIS...
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD
INTO THE SRN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE
PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING SEWD FROM THE
PACIFIC NW INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN. THE SRN PORTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND EVOLVE FROM A POSITIVE TO A NEUTRAL
TILT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TX TONIGHT...AS A MID LEVEL JET MAX
SHIFTS FROM THE BACKSIDE INTO THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG SURFACE
RISES OVER TX WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION SWD OFF THE TX COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOW EWD MOTION OF FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

...TX AND LA COASTAL REGION...
A MAJORITY OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST WAS
LOCATED NORTH OF FRONT AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE
BOUNDARY MOVES OFFSHORE. THE DEEP SLY FLOW ABOVE THE COLD FRONT AND
ELEVATED CONVECTION SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE IS VERY LOW.
HOWEVER...A WEAK WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED ALONG THE FRONT WEST OF
ALI...MOVING EWD AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WARMING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR AHEAD OF SURFACE WAVE MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST/WEAK
TORNADO UNTIL AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

SFC WAVE SHOULD GRADUALLY DEEPEN BY LATE TONIGHT IN THE NWRN GULF AS
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES LESS POSITIVELY TILTED. STRENGTHENING MID/HIGH
LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE LOW WOULD PROVIDE A
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ROTATING STORMS.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY WEAK
WITH UPDRAFTS ROOTED AROUND 850 MB. MAIN THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS
IS EXPECTED IN THE NWRN GULF NEAR THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
..IMY/JEWELL.. 10/26/2009

[Ptarmigan]

Am I seeing a possible sfc low beginning to develop around Port Lavaca? Probably just a convergence going on as opposed to any circulation developing.

I don't see any circulation. However, I see more rain coming later today.

[southerngale]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1210 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN TYLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHESTER...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 1152 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE RAINFALL OF ONE HALF TO ONE
AND HALF INCHES PER HOUR ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF TYLER
COUNTY. THESE RAINS ARE OCCURRING OVER AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED VERY HEAVY RAINS THIS MORNING. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND FIVE INCHES HAVE
OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH 2 PM. LOCAL DRAINAGES THAT MAY EXPERIENCE
FLOODING ARE VINCENT CREEK...COWPEN CREEK AND RUSSELL CREEK NEAR
AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CHESTER.

* THE STORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1240 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PORT NECHES...PORT ARTHUR...GROVES...
CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MAURICEVILLE...BRIDGE CITY...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 1221 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF ORANGE AND SOUTHEASTERN
JEFFERSON COUNTIES. RADAR ESTIMATES AND GAUGE REPORTS INDICATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS RANGE FROM ONE TO THREE
INCHES ACROSS PORT ARTHUR OVER TO BRIDGE CITY AND WEST ORANGE.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO TWO INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH 230 PM.

* FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THAT COULD BECOME
DEEP RATHER QUICKLY IN PORT ARTHUR AND PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1053 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2009

TXC199-245-361-261845-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FA.Y.0037.091026T1553Z-091026T1845Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARDIN TX-JEFFERSON TX-ORANGE TX-
1053 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LUMBERTON...
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SABINE PASS...PORT NECHES...PORT
ARTHUR...NEDERLAND...HAMSHIRE...GROVES...CENTRAL GARDENS...
BEAUMONT...
ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WEST ORANGE...VIDOR...ORANGE...
MAURICEVILLE...BRIDGE CITY...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 1049 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING ACROSS
JEFFERSON COUNTY TEXAS AND INTO ORANGE COUNTY TEXAS. EXTREME
RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BRING RAPID LOWLAND AND URBAN
FLOODING TO THESE AREAS. RAIN TOTALS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS MOVE NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF LAND
ADJACENT TO SMALL CREEKS AND BAYOUS. ADDITIONALLY...FRONTAGE ROADS...
HIGHWAY UNDERPASSES...FARM-TO-MARKET AND OTHER SECONDARY ROADS MAY
FLOOD.

TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN... MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.
NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE
FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE
ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN
AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3027 9436 3027 9410 3025 9410 3024 9410
3024 9371 2999 9377 2996 9385 2983 9394
2979 9394 2977 9389 2971 9385 2969 9385
2967 9406 2957 9436

$$

MM

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff...

Widespread rainfall continues across SE TX as pre frontal trough/outflow boundary press into the Gulf of Mexico.



Upper trough lagging back to the west is helping pull moisture up and over the pre frontal slope continuing light to moderate rainfall inland. Radar estimates along with gage truth reports indicate widespread 1.-2.5 inches of rain has fallen with isolated 3-4 inches in a few places. A LCRA rain gage overnight recorded 5.46 inches of rainfall on the upper Colorado River Basin in San Saba County…including an amazing 2.56 inches in 15 minutes.



Area watersheds within Harris County are swollen from the heavy rains this morning and continue to discharge storm water, but are well within banks. Rises on mainstem rivers is likely given the widespread nature of the rainfall and saturated grounds. Lake Livingston will be increasing discharges today as upstream run-off over N TX makes its way southward. Increased flood gate operations on the middle and upper Trinity will result in minor to moderate flooding on the lower Trinity below Lake Livingston well into next week. Flood gate operations and releases on the middle Brazos River along with uncontrolled inflow from watersheds below Bryan will result in a rise on the lower Brazos River…although at this time the river is not expected to reach flood stage. Widespread heavy rain again over the Colorado River basin overnight has resulted in flood waves being generated on several watersheds feeding the Highland Lakes chain. Lake Travis remains well below normal and will be able to absorb the incoming flood flows into its pool elevation without flood gate operations.



Next Event:



We will get only about 48 hours of dry weather before the next progressive system arrives late Wed-Fri. Models are really hammering away at high QPF values with this system. For now will tone down some the of significant values and go with yet again another 1-3 widespread isolated 4-5 inches. Given the now soggy grounds much of this will run-off into swollen watersheds. Extrapolation of upstream flood waves will place them in the middle to lower river basins by the end of the week just in time for additional heavy rainfall. I am a little concerned with the models wanting to slow this system down and the 00Z GFS urn hanging to front just off the coast into early next week….allowing moisture to overrun the boundary. Will need to watch the heavy rainfall threat closely over the next 24-36 hours for Thur-Fri.



If you were not a believer in El Nino teleconnections…you should be one now given the historic drought that has been in place is rapidly ending and some locations are closing in on their top 5 wettest Octobers in history.

[JenBayles]

If you were not a believer in El Nino teleconnections…you should be one now given the historic drought that has been in place is rapidly ending and some locations are closing in on their top 5 wettest Octobers in history.

Not too worried here about the rest of today, but now that we're saturated guess I'll have to worry about this next system. Bye bye drought!

[southerngale]

If you were not a believer in El Nino teleconnections…you should be one now given the historic drought that has been in place is rapidly ending and some locations are closing in on their top 5 wettest Octobers in history.

Not too worried here about the rest of today, but now that we're saturated guess I'll have to worry about this next system. Bye bye drought!

You might want to pay a little attention, though. I just checked radar again and noticed that mess west of Houston is strengthening and growing.

Houston NWS Radar Image

Houston NWS Radar Loop


After the heavier storms this morning (had some thunder & lightning then as well), it's been just about non-stop light to moderate rain ever since, with little spurts of heavier rain. It's raining pretty good right now.

Drought? What drought? That is looooooooooong gone!

[vbhoutex]

I'm hoping that stuff to our West is starting to wane like it looks like it could but I am going to look further as it appears we may be having a strong moisture feed coming in from just off CC. Looking further it does appear that we will be getting some more moderate rains, but the stronger storms that were off to the West and Southwest do appear to be raining themselves out somewhat. Don't think we will have the word drought in our vocabulary anytime soon now. DON'T LIKE the progs for more of the same in 2-3 days though!!!

[southerngale]

Yeah, that area has weakened since I made my post above. I'm beginning to wonder if there's even going to be a break in the rain, though. I'm still getting moderate rain, sometimes lighter, and it seems to be coming from the south now. Every time it looks like it may end soon, it doesn't, so I check radar and there's more there.

It looks like more is developing offshore and moving generally northward as well.

[somethingfunny]

In case anybody was starting to forget what it looks like.

(Don't try to duplicate this image please for the love of Pete and the health of your eyes)

[aerology]

If you were not a believer in El Nino teleconnections…you should be one now given the historic drought that has been in place is rapidly ending and some locations are closing in on their top 5 wettest Octobers in history.

Not too worried here about the rest of today, but now that we're saturated guess I'll have to worry about this next system. Bye bye drought!

You might want to pay a little attention, though. I just checked radar again and noticed that mess west of Houston is strengthening and growing.

Houston NWS Radar Image

Houston NWS Radar Loop


After the heavier storms this morning (had some thunder & lightning then as well), it's been just about non-stop light to moderate rain ever since, with little spurts of heavier rain. It's raining pretty good right now.

Drought? What drought? That is looooooooooong gone!

I've noticed Texas over the years seems to go from long drought, to saturated soils to flash floods, then normal precip for a while in cycles. I am thinking the conditions are ripe for a repeat of a medium tornado outbreak, (southern LA and points east) as this system leaves Texas and shears up through LA on it's way through later tonight. I am thinking there will be plenty of rain for this area (STX/LA) for close to a week or more by my forecast. Richard Holle

[vbhoutex]

I just went out to check the rain gauge and it is raining again!!!
edit: Tuesday morning-2.03" total

[Jagno]

Well, I've got over 1/2" of standing water in my garage and praying it doesn't rise anymore or it will be in my livingroom. We have flood warnings in effect now. Our roadways are completely covered over as I was coming home from work around 8:30pm. We have huge ditches and they have exceeded their banks and the water is up to peoples front doors. I'm so thankful that I built on piers and the only thing remaining on a slab is my livingroom and garage with outdoor kitchen. The flooring is all scored and stained concrete so the cleanup is much easier than it would be with wood or carpet. I hope everyone stays safe on those wet roadways.