Texas Fall-2016

[Ntxw]

I agree with his assessment. I keep saying neutral/Nina favor frigid Decembers and early Jan. Even more so when you are in weak Nina. Canada will not be warm early in the season as with the last 2 El Nino seasons.

Western Canada has not been warm

[Tireman4]

Uhghh...still not here..come on down front..

000
FXUS64 KHGX 200941
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
441 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...
04Z surface analysis has the main cold front located roughly
along a Presidio to San Angelo to Wichita Falls line. A ragged
line of convection forming just ahead of this boundary, the type
of broken line convection that can be expected to reach our
northern reaches by the late morning hours. Although there will
be some error with the overall evolution (or timing) concerning
today`s frontal passage (e.g., mid to upper flow becoming more
parallel with surface front, location of the leading pre-frontal
trough), the main cold front will likely come through between the
mid to late morning hours up north and be off the coast by the
late afternoon. Precipitation coverage will consist of scattered
showers with isolated storm cells forming just downstream of the
approaching front north of the city, more coastal counties and
local water discrete cells moving north as they are caught up
within the onshore (in)flow pattern. In summary, due to the
progressive nature of this fropa, most have a high probability of
receiving under a half of an inch of precipitation, those closer
to the coast will pick up between a half of an inch and an inch of
rain. Today`s two main threats will be locally dense morning fog
impacting the rush hour with, if a poorly formed QLCS does push
south across the area, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts within the
strongest, better organized cell clusters.

Cold and dry air advection reaching the local waters in the wake
of today`s front will likely hoist evening through Friday morning
Wind Advisory flags to account for greater than 20 knot sustained
northerly winds. Convection along and ahead of the front will
quickly transition to the far offshore Gulf waters during the
early evening hours. The backing cool and dry air mass will
finally introduce Autumn to area, albeit a month late! Pristine
weather both Friday and Saturday; clear skies and weakening
veering easterlies as cool mornings in the 40/50s warm into the
70s/low 80s. As early week upper ridging moves east of the state,
lowering western Plains surface pressure will swing winds back
onshore by Sunday, ushering in slightly higher moisture through
the final week of the month. Primarily early week mid-high level
clouds and a subsequent day slightly above normal diurnal temperature
curve; low to mid 60 minimum temperatures that will warm into the
early afternoon mid to upper 80s through Tuesday. A flattened
South Plains ridge/near zonal flow pattern will suppress much in
the way of rain and keep mid to late week conditions partially
cloudy and still unseasonably warm (upper 60/lower 70 mins - near
90 F maxs) under a persistent onshore fetch. Slight rain probabilities
will exist over the maritime with weak lobes of southwestern-based
positive vorticity advection (PVA) passing through and possibly
increasing late period widely scattered -TSRA, a pattern similar
to yesterday`s areal coverage. 31

&&

.MARINE...
Prefrontal trof will push off the coast today with light offshore
flow then prevailing thru most of the afternoon. Speeds start
increasing toward evening...and much more substantially shortly after
sunset as the front itself and cooler airmass arrives. Small craft
advisory will be required overnight into parts of Friday w/20-25G30kt
winds and seas building to 7-9 ft offshore. Winds/seas begin settling
down Fri night and gradually veer to the SE late Saturday as high
pressure moves eastward. Onshore flow will then persist well into
next week. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
Variety of wx across the region this morning ranging from some
shra/tstms near the coast, dense fog west of the metro area to VFR
conditions elsewhere. Think most areas will trend back toward VFR
territory toward mid morning. Exception might be in/around any
convection that develops ahead of prefrontal trof & cold front that`ll
be moving thru SE Tx during the day. With the exception of the coast,
winds will shift to the north in the morning but an increase in speeds
will lag until the actual front crosses the area later in the day.
Clear skies are expected tonight with strong NNE winds near KGLS. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 52 79 51 79 / 50 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 85 55 78 52 80 / 40 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 84 66 77 64 77 / 50 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...31/47

[aggiecutter]

Great news from NOAA's winter weather forecast, if you like warm and dry. However, there have been several severe ice and snow storms in northern and northeast Texas in December during La Nina years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KF8YwYU ... e=youtu.be

[weatherdude1108]

Thing is, we've already been warm and dry for the past month and a half or so. This is just downright depressing.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think the forecast analog they used was for a la nina.

[Brent]

What a difference a day makes:

Looking beyond the
next 7 days...longer range guidance suggests no appreciable
increase in moisture across the region...indicating a continued
dry pattern.

[JDawg512]

Yup 24 hours later and EWX had zero mention about a prolific rain making system like they did yesterday.

[Brent]

Yup 24 hours later and EWX had zero mention about a prolific rain making system like they did yesterday.

GFS has 0.29" the entire run here...

the only good news is, there's no 90s, and a big cold snap around Halloween showing up. Some 30s possible outside the metro if it holds up.

[TheProfessor]

Thank God for the rain today, it was becoming disgustingly hot (82 degrees is hot for Ohio for this time of year). I've been doing a weather journal for my class this semester and I recorded 80+ degree weather 7 times this October, I just checked for last October and I found the max Temperature was 79 degrees, We reached 84.2 on west campus on the 17th. I haven't even recorded a high in the 50s yet, although that might end tomorrow. Also for the project we are doing I will be recording tracks of storms over the U.S for the next week. I'm just hoping I will see a gradual decrease of temperatures like last year so I can get used to it. That first 32 degrees day is always painful.

[Ralph's Weather]

Made it down to 48 this morning, hoping for low 40s tomorrow.

[Ntxw]

We are already seeing signs of the very strong -AO/SAI advance perturbing the stratospheric polar vortex. Remember around this time and into November the vortex is consolidating and in a normal climo season begins to strengthen it significantly before any mid winter warming. So the fact that the strat PV is being disturbed greatly is a sign that all that building cold over the much above normal snowpack could soon be open. I am a proponent of a heavy front end winter vs second half. All of this may be anecdotal and there is always possibility it may not couple but it's hard not to look elsewhere for hints of what may be to come.





The key will be the EPO to deliver with the AO. Watch it the next 45 days.

[JDawg512]

Well in the mean time, no rain in sight. Apparently no Halloween storm. Ridge of high pressure dominating and no real cold temps.

[Ntxw]

Well in the mean time, no rain in sight. Apparently no Halloween storm. Ridge of high pressure dominating and no real cold temps.

I think the prospects of meaningful rain the next 6-10 will be rather limited. Indian Ocean and Maritime tropical forcing creates a lot of subsidence in the tropical Pacific without an El Nino. In layman terms, no subtropical jet feed. So your below normal rainfall fear will likely come to fruition unfortunately

[Ralph's Weather]

New low for the Fall, 43 this morning.

[gpsnowman]

After today (70"s) it should be dry and in the 80's all the way through to November. This is depressing.

[wxman57]

Getting tired of all this cold weather. Have to wait another hour for it to be warm enough to head out on our 50-mile bike ride. I'm not seeing anything cooler than this morning over the next 2 weeks. Generally, above-normal temps & below-normal precip through the first week of November.

[weatherdude1108]

This last sentence of EWX discussion this morning pretty much sums it up. No need to look at the weather until then.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 221131
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/

It appears the next chances of rain will wait
until November.

[Brent]

A year ago today the Patricia flood was beginning...

I love the cool air, but we need rain too...

[JDawg512]

Are we still looking at a solid +PDO? I haven't paid much attention to it as I've focused more on the QBO reversal and the arctic sea ice levels. Hopefully if the PDO is positive, in theory that should dampen the weak la Niña.

Ntwx, would you agree that weak but slowly strengthening niña is central based, in many respects like we saw with this past El Niño? I'm interested to hear your thoughts on the differences between central based niñas and eastern based in regards to impacts on Texas?

[Ntxw]

Are we still looking at a solid +PDO? I haven't paid much attention to it as I've focused more on the QBO reversal and the arctic sea ice levels. Hopefully if the PDO is positive, in theory that should dampen the weak la Niña.

Ntwx, would you agree that weak but slowly strengthening niña is central based, in many respects like we saw with this past El Niño? I'm interested to hear your thoughts on the differences between central based niñas and eastern based in regards to impacts on Texas?

PDO fell rapidly when the Nino ended late spring. Between Aug and Sept the fall slowed though, we are basically slightly positive/neutral PDO. CFSv2 and Euro keeps it stable the next few months. Right now the drought is intensifying in the southeastern US mostly which is common during El Nino-La Nina transition years. If La Nina further develops or a second Nina then it would likely migrate westward.

As far as central or east based Nina I don't think it matters. The reason being the importance of it for a Nino is because when there is thunderstorms, where they are placed matters. However for a La Nina, naturally Ninas squash thunderstorms to just dry air thus can't really place thunderstorms anywhere as its focus is over Indonesia and there are no thunderstorms over the tropical Pacific to move. The two ENSO events do not work opposite one an another, they are seperate kind of events.