Texas Fall 2025

[Lagreeneyes03]

Was nice to see some semblance of "cooler" air today, though we're in dire need of additional rainfall, especially in Central Texas where the rainfall deficit proportions over the past month are worse than anywhere else in the country. Several counties have recorded 0% to 2% of their typical rainfall over the last 30 days. Austin-Bergstrom is on 41 days without measurable rain (10th longest streak going back to 1942) and it'll be tied for top 6 if it makes it through Friday without getting any rain. Getting essentially no precipitation in what is ordinarily the second wet season is not an encouraging sign heading into winter. Hopefully the region can squeeze something out of this upcoming weekend's trough, but the latest model runs don't seem very enthusiastic with regards to getting a good Pacific jet going in the longer term. If this keeps up, will definitely need to monitor for fire weather in the winter/early spring following the heavy rains during the past growing season.

Source: I made these graphics. Data is the daily Stage IV Precipitation Analysis.
https://i.imgur.com/qVc9bm6.png
https://i.imgur.com/hRLKemD.png

Source: Texas A&M Forest Service
https://i.imgur.com/MJkbw7t.png

LOL Denton county what the heck? That's a wild statistic right there

[wxman22]

There could be some needed rain, but also some severe weather with the system later this week.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe storm potential is likely to increase through the extended
forecast period as a series of upper troughs and enhanced
southwesterly flow aloft return to the central and southeastern
CONUS. The primary uncertainty remains the degree of moisture return
and instability.

...D4/Thursday-D6/Saturday Southern Plains/ArkLaTex...
A shortwave trough will cross the southern Rockies into the High
Plains supporting lee cyclogenesis Thursday and Thursday night. In
the wake of the earlier frontal passage, modest low-level moisture
return is expected to take place east of the low and a lee trough
over the southern Plains as a warm front lifts northward. Cooling
mid-level temperatures will allow for diurnal destabilization and
some organized severe potential as westerly flow aloft also
increases. Strong to potentially severe storms are possible
D4/Thursday and D5/Friday in vicinity of the surface low and warm
front across KS/OK, and along the lee trough into the TX Panhandle.
However, confidence in the overall severe risk and its evolution is
low, pending sufficient moisture return and the timing of the upper
trough.

Some severe potential will likely shift eastward into the ArklaTex
D6/Saturday as the upper low moves eastward and low-level moisture
return continues. Confidence in the severe risk is limited, owing to
the potential for several prior days of convection.

...Eastern Plains and Mid MS Valley D7-D8...
Greater severe potential may develop towards the end of the extended
forecast period as a deep upper trough matures over the Plains
D7/Sunday and moves into the Midwest/MS Valley D8/Monday. Ensemble
and deterministic guidance show a strong cold front and low with
sufficient moisture/instability for severe storms capable of all
hazards from the eastern Plains and MS Valley late this weekend into
early next week. 15% severe probabilities could be needed in future
outlook cycles should model solutions converge on timing and
location of the greatest severe risk.

[wxman22]

It's that time of year again. The gusty winds are back...

[Ntxw]

It's that time of year again. The gusty winds are back...

https://i.ibb.co/Vc4PZWJM/7.png

Even though it is a warm wind today still mixing air which has been great. Cooler tomorrow and close to normal rest of the week. The extended summer hell is over... now just needs some rain.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Well, all of the global models are locking into some big changes next week, so I am back!

Still no snow here in Denver. Oct 18th is our avg first snow. Hopefully its not like my first year here, which was New Years!

[Quixotic]

Was nice to see some semblance of "cooler" air today, though we're in dire need of additional rainfall, especially in Central Texas where the rainfall deficit proportions over the past month are worse than anywhere else in the country. Several counties have recorded 0% to 2% of their typical rainfall over the last 30 days. Austin-Bergstrom is on 41 days without measurable rain (10th longest streak going back to 1942) and it'll be tied for top 6 if it makes it through Friday without getting any rain. Getting essentially no precipitation in what is ordinarily the second wet season is not an encouraging sign heading into winter. Hopefully the region can squeeze something out of this upcoming weekend's trough, but the latest model runs don't seem very enthusiastic with regards to getting a good Pacific jet going in the longer term. If this keeps up, will definitely need to monitor for fire weather in the winter/early spring following the heavy rains during the past growing season.

Source: I made these graphics. Data is the daily Stage IV Precipitation Analysis.
https://i.imgur.com/qVc9bm6.png
https://i.imgur.com/hRLKemD.png

Source: Texas A&M Forest Service
https://i.imgur.com/MJkbw7t.png

LOL Denton county what the heck? That's a wild statistic right there

A few weeks ago we had a surprise backbuilding training event. It was not forecasted and I think I got 4-5” IMBY.

[snownado]

Today should be the last 90*F+ day of the year.

And it's impressive considering temps started in the upper 50s this morning...

[rwfromkansas]

Denton County always gets lucky.

I did see a tidbit today that there is a new West Texas Mesonet location at the Fort Worth Nature Center, the farthest east location for that network.

[wxman22]

The front just made it through here. Highs will be in the 70's here tomorrow compared to the high of 93F today.

[Brent]

I'm not sure it's gonna be truly cold for Halloween but it definitely looks like we're done with the way above normal temps... Remember averages are dropping rapidly at this point... but so far the cold air has been east of us

I dunno about Texas but there's a lot of hype here about heavy rain this weekend already

[Quixotic]

Denton County always gets lucky.

I did see a tidbit today that there is a new West Texas Mesonet location at the Fort Worth Nature Center, the farthest east location for that network.

Ever been? It’s awesome. See the plains grasses before Europeans arrived in America. Watched my entomology teacher get stung by a velvet ant. Memories.

[snownado]

Denton County always gets lucky.

Not necessarily.

Last year (or maybe it was 2023?), Delkus literally made "It Never Rains
In Denton" into a meme, as they were getting missed in every which direction.

But that's how it is with weather. There's always an equilibrium to everything eventually.

[TomballEd]

No rain so far this month in Houston. Good news coming?

 https://x.com/JimCantore/status/1980557730222858720

[Brent]

The weekend system is definitely trending slower and there's another one right behind it for Monday before a stronger front

I dunno how far south it gets but this could be our first multi day rainfall in months

Halloween looking about average right now to me

[wxman22]